Tuesday 4/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mahoning Valley - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#4 Logico
Think he might be a reasonable alternative to the likely chalk drawn just outside of him, as he caught a tough and in-form winner last time out and isn't too far off what it might take to score here.


#5 John's Rock
Nothing wrong with his form here so far this meet with three wins from as many starts by better than 20 combined lengths. The clear one to beat again.


#3 Gran Andrews
He's not overmatched with this group and has some positional pace to find a good spot while maybe getting a small jump on the top two. Not impossible.


Race Summary
This race obviously goes through John's Rock -- if he holds the current form, he should handle these, but Logico exits a race I liked a bit and doesn't seem like too much of a stretch.


Mahoning Valley - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#1 Moester
Mild worry about his finishing style, but he ran on nicely to be a good second behind a super sharp winner last time out and doesn't meet anyone like that today.


#2 Poseidon's Son
Tactical speed steps up in search of a third straight win, and he should be able to get a solid jump on the top choice turning for home. One of the ones.


#5 Oklahoma Joe
He has done some decent work sprinting here this season and should be able to flash enough pace to control the tempo today. Can stick around.


Race Summary
Moester exits a tough race and closed well, and I'm hoping a similar effort will produce a score against this slightly leaner group.


Mahoning Valley - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#8 Shaolin
She wasn't embarrassed at this level last time out when having some trouble, and she might be able to offer something just a touch better this time around.


#9 Near Perfect
She has super reliable form and has been pretty tough so far this season, but she's probably going to take some cash again and wouldn't be a surprise in another underneath spot.


#3 Joya Del Sur
She's back quick after a solid sprint effort here last week, and she has run well enough going long before to think she can handle the added ground with the locals.


Race Summary
Shaolin might be a fair price after the even effort last out, but she didn't have the cleanest go that day and can probably bring something slightly better today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Parx - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 DIXIE MUSIC (4-1)
Nearly sprung 35-1 shocker on barn switch, added ground should help.


#1 FAUX PAS (5-1)
Should be in good forward striking position in first route attempt with rail draw.


#4 BATTALIA (8-5)
Rallied for second two back, set pace with blinkers in $25k follow up, in for $10k.


Race Summary
DIXIE MUSIC, outrun early at 7F, rallied past the 4-to-5 favorite but was out-kicked for the win at 35-1 odds. She takes a slight class drop and stretches out in distance off that improved effort for her new connections. Bet to win and place.


Parx - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#3 APRIL CLOVER (7-2)
All-or-nothing type in second start back, runs for cheapest tag yet.


#1 JET SET JULIET (5-1)
Vet voided claim after runner-up finish at Belmont for twice this much.


#8 AUNT BERRA (5-1)
Re-rallied into photo-finish view two starts back in the same spot, draws outside.


Race Summary
APRIL CLOVER fired a blank off a bullet workout in her first start since a November claim. But she has speed and can’t be discounted on the class drop with second-time Lasix. Play a 3-ALL exacta.


Parx - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#8 SUMMERATTHESHORE (5-1)
Took charge on turn, flattened out in lane, good value play.


#1 THE LAST JET (6-1)
Useful and well-bet in 6F debut; dam won at 6-1/2F in debut before G-2 try.


#5 DRIVEN TO SUCCESS (6-1)
Must stay in closer contact in first long-distance assignment.


Race Summary
SUMMERATTHESHORE raced close up to the far turn, took command into the stretch, then raced evenly to finish third in her first start at this level. But she improved dramatically off her prior starts, earning a playback on her return to Parx. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=wrd0409zf.pdf&exp=04/11/2024&pds=WRD_-_04/09/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/09/2024;TRACK_CODE=WRD&SAP=FREEPICS)


Will Rogers Downs - Race 8

$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta



Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 4:24P


FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DA CANDY CANE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e. PEARL'S CODE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GRACE THE LADY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. SAYAAD AIN'T SO: Today is a sprint a nd this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. VA VOOM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



2

DA CANDY CANE

3/1


5/1




3

PEARL'S CODE

6/1


6/1




10

GRACE THE LADY

4/1


6/1




5

SAYAAD AIN'T SO

8/1


10/1




7

VA VOOM

6/1


10/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

DA CANDY CANE

2


3/1

Front-runner

70


67


68.4


51.0


43.0




5

SAYAAD AIN'T SO

5


8/1

Front-runner

62


61


64.0


34.6


23.1




6

HANGXIETY

6


5/1

Alternator/Front-runner

48


62


38.8


50.6


41.6




10

GRACE THE LADY

10


4/1

Stalker

65


64


45.2


58.2


47.2




3

PEARL'S CODE

3


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

73


62


63.4


55.6


48.1




8

UNITED SISTER

8


20/1

Trailer

60


54


37.0


46.4


29.9




4

GREEN LIGHT GIRL

4


12/1

Trailer

65


62


33.4


56.0


44.0




7

VA VOOM

7


6/1

Alternator/Trailer

67


56


29.6


53.6


48.1




1

SERENDIPITY COCO

1


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

69


67


57.8


46.4


36.9




9

OUTWORKTHEOKIEGIRL

9


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

67


66


31.0


37.8


22.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race CoursePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=mvr0409zz.htm&exp=04/11/2024&pds=MVR_-_04/09/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/09/2024;TRACK_CODE=MVR&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25900 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 STOMPING MOON 9/5




# 6 DR JACK FLYER 3/1




# 1 EL BAMBINO 8/1




I think STOMPING MOON is a very good choice. Has recorded formidable Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. He looks decent in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Ran a strong last race. DR JACK FLYER - Trainer boasts strong win figs at this distance and surface. Has been running admirably lately and will probably be on the front end early on. EL BAMBINO - The Equibase speed fig of 66 from his last contest looks strong in here. One of the best win percentages between this jockey and trainer make this gelding dangerous.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=mvr0409zm.htm&exp=04/11/2024&pds=MVR_-_04/09/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/09/2024;TRACK_CODE=MVR&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:12pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,900 Class Rating: 83

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 JOYA DEL SUR (ML=3/1)
#2 BIG JAVA (ML=8/1)
#9 NEAR PERFECT (ML=2/1)


JOYA DEL SUR - Sophisticated horseplayers will tell you that this horse has strong pace. This jock and handler are reliable together. Winning percentage when teamed up is hard to one up. Rivera was aboard this mare last race out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This mare is in fine physical condition. Ran second on Apr 1st. BIG JAVA - Mare shipped to this track and won; now goes for back-to-back wins. NEAR PERFECT - I like that latest effort on Mar 25th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where she finished third. This filly is number one in earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this animal before the race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISS FOXANN (ML=9/2), #8 SHAOLIN (ML=6/1),

MISS FOXANN - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Will be hard for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list. SHAOLIN - Would have to improve off that fourth place finish last time to make an impact here.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #3 JOYA DEL SUR to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [2,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3,9] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,3,9] with [2,3,9] with [1,2,3,7,9] with [1,2,3,7,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=wrd0409zz.htm&exp=04/11/2024&pds=WRD_-_04/09/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/09/2024;TRACK_CODE=WRD&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 SAM SEZ 5/2




# 6 ELECTORAL 3/1




# 1 LAPIS LAZULI 3/1




SAM SEZ is the strongest wager in this race. Have to wager on this gelding with the sound earnings per start in dirt sprint events. Looks solid to be on the lead at the first call. Should definitely be given consideration in this race if only for the respectable speed rating posted in the last race. ELECTORAL - He has garnered decent figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. With a very good 69 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. LAPIS LAZULI - Has performed soundly as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 75 avg speed figure. Should be considered based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest.