Wednesday 4/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Keeneland - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#9 Strummin
He ran well when second behind an easy winner here a couple weeks ago, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get in the race a touch earlier today with that experience under his belt.


#4 Bostontonian
Have to think he's ready to roll, and also have to think the price is going to get pretty short with Ward and some snappy works on the page. Take a look, but probably the one to beat.


#2 Jet Sweep Joe
Debuter has been drilling regularly for this one, and this might not be the deepest early season special weight run we're going to see here.


Race Summary
Strummin has an experience edge on most of these, and that felt like the kind of race he can build on to stay competitive against some intriguing first-timers.


Keeneland - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#3 Royal Mende
Pretty decent midrange price lean for me with this one, as he'll go back to the turf for the second start off the long break. The Turfway prep seems useful, and he caught Webslinger the last time he was on the lawn at this level. Nothing like that in here.


#2 What Say Thee
The recent baseline probably makes him tough, and he never had a fighting chance last time out with a lot of late trouble. The one to beat.


#12 Porquerolles
Tactical speed was solid in the Gulfstream debut score, and that positional pace might be enough to help him work out a trip from this high draw. Think there's still upside here.


Race Summary
Fun race. I'm hoping Royal Mende gets a little lost on the board if the other listed pair take most of the cash. #5 Bolt From Above is starting to feel like a progressive type with that good 2024 form.


Keeneland - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Patriarchal
He went evenly on the turf in his only two sprint tries, and he's turning back with some route pace out of a tough race at Fair Grounds. First-jump trip?


#1 Trumptastic
He can hit hard while getting a little relief even in this high-level claimer, and he ran really well here with better last season. The one to beat.


#8 Olivier
He's another who makes some sense, but I worry he'll be overbet with just two fading efforts on his page. Easier spot today might help him enough.


Race Summary
Patriarchal exits a race I liked a little bit, and the price might be playable enough in what doesn't feel like a particularly memorable spot even for this level.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 HUNNY BUNNYNESS (7-2)
Moderate breezes since Tampa arrival, tries to follow in dam’s footsteps.


#9 BEACH ISLAND (6-1)
Hard ridden behind runaway fave, held third, gets class relief and goes farther.


#8 STYLISH ANNA (9-2)
Numbers translate well to this spot, gets in light-weighted.


Race Summary
HUNNYBUNNYNESS shows gaps in training around a bullet workout in November, but Ness thought enough to ship the 3-year-old filly south for her debut. Her dam, Coastal Sunrise, was a first-out Maiden Special Weight winner and a stakes victory as a 2-year-old. Bet to win and place.


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#3 GOLDCREST (5-2)
Tries to re-awaken for new connections, appears all-or-nothing type.


#1 WHAT A KNOCKOUT (6-1)
A lot of chances and a lot of checks at this level.


#6 SHE’S SO BEARISH (3-1
Has an easy win and a second in last two starts on fast track for this barn.


Race Summary
GOLDCREST is working steadily at Palm Meadows since D’Angelo claimed her off a poor effort to start the year. But she was an allowance winner at age 2 and has done the least wrong in a field that is a combined 16-for-146. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-6 exactas.


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#7 BEAUTIFUL ASTRAY (6-1)
Can carry her speed farther in second start this year, good value play.


#8 DON’T TELL AMY (3-1)
New York invader found blinkers of little help, but warrants second look.


#9 BINGO’S DREAM (5-2)
Gets class relief, has speed and good post to use it from.


Race Summary
BEAUTIFUL ASTRAY got past the fleet-footed pace setter before a pair of deep closers passed by at 6F. She can make better use of her speed with second-time Lasix in a shorter sprint. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for KeenelandPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=kee0417zf.pdf&exp=04/19/2024&pds=KEE_-_04/17/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/17/2024;TRACK_CODE=KEE&SAP=FREEPICS)


Keeneland - Race 1

Double-Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta-Pick 3-Pick 5 ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 min)



Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 89 • Purse: $70,000 • Post: 1:00P


FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (FOR HORSES THAT SOLD OR RNA FOR $50,000 OR LESS IN THEIR MOST RECENT AUCTION).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SHETALKSTOANGELS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SANCTIFY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



3

SHETALKSTOANGELS

2/1


7/2




6

SANCTIFY

8/1


7/2




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

SHETALKSTOANGELS

3


2/1

Stalker

78


81


76.8


76.8


73.8




5

RAZZLE RED

5


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


81.5


63.5


58.0




2

HONORS LEGACY

2


20/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


23.7


52.1


42.6




7

TWO LUCYS

7


10/1

Trailer

74


65


60.5


60.5


52.0




1

VINO VELOCE

1


4/1

Trailer

73


50


59.7


47.4


35.9




6

SANCTIFY

6


8/1

Trailer

77


76


49.0


76.9


72.9







































Unknown Running Style: LOW COUNTRY MAGIC (6/1) [Jockey: Ortiz Jose L - Trainer: Correas IV Ignacio].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ind0417zf.pdf&exp=04/19/2024&pds=IND_-_04/17/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/17/2024;TRACK_CODE=IND&SAP=FREEPICS)


Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 5

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)



Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 76 • Purse: $43,520 • Post: 4:14P


FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. END OF INNOCENCE is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * MOON FLEET: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMas ter Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.



9

MOON FLEET

7/2


8/5




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

END OF INNOCENCE

7


5/1

Alternator/Front-runner

66


72


57.7


55.3


47.3




9

MOON FLEET

9


7/2

Stalker

83


82


66.3


75.4


72.9




3

NO BODY LOVES ME

3


15/1

Alternator/Stalker

65


62


59.4


55.2


46.7




8

SACOS STOGIE

8


8/1

Trailer

0


0


76.8


66.4


62.9




5

JUST BE QUIET

5


12/1

Trailer

75


72


41.3


56.2


49.2




1

DEVIL OF PARADIS

1


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


31.3


33.2


22.2







































Unknown Running Style: SMALL HOLLOW (10/1) [Jockey: Miller Chase - Trainer: Miller Darrin], ALIMONY (5/2) [Jockey: Prescott Rodney A - Trainer: Asmussen Steven M], MY WORD (15/1) [Jockey: De La Cruz Fernando - Trainer: Mackey Wayne L], SWING TOWN (6/

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf ParadisePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=tup0417zz.htm&exp=04/19/2024&pds=TUP_-_04/17/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/17/2024;TRACK_CODE=TUP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $75,000.




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https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 BURAQ'S REFLECTION 7/2




# 6 LADY MARY LOU 8/1




# 1 WELL IMAGINE THAT 6/1




BURAQ'S REFLECTION is the top bet in this race. Recorded a very good speed figure last time out. The average class figure of 61 makes this entrant hard to beat. LADY MARY LOU - Has the appearance of a lucrative play. WELL IMAGINE THAT - Formidable average speed figures in turf route races make this animal a solid choice. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Cruz should have this gelding in excellent position to win the race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=tam0417zm.htm&exp=04/19/2024&pds=TAM_-_04/17/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/17/2024;TRACK_CODE=TAM&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8 - Post: 3:52pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 MR TITO'S (ML=8/1)
#9 AUGER (ML=6/1)
#2 GEAUX YOSHKA (ML=9/2)


MR TITO'S - Have to like the way Davis has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. Gelding won on Jan 28th at this class and distance. This one could be a possible overlay today at odds of 8/1. Finished fourth in last race at Tampa Bay Downs but was close at the finish. AUGER - Rivera drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping information to think this thoroughbred will be one to beat at this level. Coming off a fifth place finish at Tampa Bay Downs, some may skip this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good morning line odds today. GEAUX YOSHKA - This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a high winning percentage, right around 31. This gelding has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HIGH BROW (ML=3/1), #7 GRAN RUNNER (ML=5/1), #4 KHOZANDO (ML=8/1),

HIGH BROW - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races of late. Not probable to see him doing it this time either. This morning-line favorite ran on March 22nd and hasn't had a blow out since then. GRAN RUNNER - Finished sixth on Apr 3rd after the extended vacation. Doubtful if there will be a reversal of fortune in this clash. This horse hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance affairs. Tough to bet on him in this contest. KHOZANDO - Finished second in his most recent race with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #6 MR TITO'S on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6,9] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,6,9] with [2,6,9] with [2,4,6,9,10] with [2,4,6,9,10] Total Cost: $36



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Skip

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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=evd0417zm.htm&exp=04/19/2024&pds=EVD_-_04/17/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/17/2024;TRACK_CODE=EVD&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:24pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 LAYLA'S SONG (ML=3/1)


LAYLA'S SONG - Numerous positive 'vibes' associated with this horse and her connections.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MAHOMEBRED (ML=8/5), #4 MISS DARLENE (ML=4/1), #3 ROSIE'S ANGUS (ML=5/1),

MAHOMEBRED - This mare ran her greatest Equibase speed figure in some time on the dirt in a sprint affair. There may be a performance bounce today. MISS DARLENE - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last couple months. Not the best of indicators. The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender. ROSIE'S ANGUS - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests recently. Doubtful to see her doing it today either.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #5 LAYLA'S SONG on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx RacingPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=prx0417zz.htm&exp=04/19/2024&pds=PRX_-_04/17/2024&var=RACE_DATE=04/17/2024;TRACK_CODE=PRX&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $53000 Class Rating: 101

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 17. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 17 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE




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https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 SPIKEZONE 3/1




# 1 FACTOR IT IN 9/2




# 2 PERFECT DAY 5/1




My pick for this race is SPIKEZONE. He has been running soundly and the speed figs are among the best in this field. Win percentage one of the top in this group of horses. Ness has him trained well to break rapidly out of the gate. FACTOR IT IN - Earning some nice profits in dirt sprint events. This racer has some longshot angles going for him. PERFECT DAY - Must be given consideration based on the very good speed rating posted in the last contest.