Sunday 5/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Coast-to-Coast Pick 5: Siegel & Nicoletti Picks | 5/12 May 12, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Sunday’s Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 selections are in for Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. The $1 minimum wager has a low 15% takeout and we’ve got the selections of veteran local handicappers Ron Nicoletti at GP and Jeff Siegel at SA.

Get 10X Wager Rewards Points when you bet the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Gulfstream Race 7
#2 Quimichis
#1 Tiffany Gold
#3 Fairhopecurly

Santa Anita Race 3
#5 Flavius

Gulfstream Race 9
#1 Huntingcoco
#6 Sonicus
#10 Drum Roll

Santa Anita Race 5
#2 Proof He Rides
Single, also consider #1 Give Me the Lute, #5 Grazed, #4 Barristan the Bold

Santa Anita Race 7
#4 Freedom Lass
Single, also consider #1 Indy’s Star

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/12/24 May 12, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Sunday, May 12, 2024


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfdFoh4Xd38)

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 5-Final Boss
Backups/savers: 2-El Rey Rey.

Forecast: Final Boss clearly is the controlling speed if he’s permitted to use his best weapon. In his only prior try around two turns, the J. Sadler-trained colt was guzzled off the pace, then tried to rally but had no chance to make any impact into the teeth of the race shape (slow early, fast late). This time, with blinkers on, the son American Pharoah should grab control early and run his rivals into the ground. It’s there for the taking.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 2-Soi Ngern
Backups/savers: 6-Timty; 4-Ivan the Great.

Forecast: Soi Ngern has done everything asked of him in the morning, and while his workout times don’t jump off the page the son of Good Magic has shown to be an exquisite athlete with smooth, flawless action. He’s listed as the second choice on the morning line at 5/2 and it’ll be interesting to see if receives unusual action on the tote. We like him as a strong win play and rolling exotic single.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 5-Flavius
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Flavius seeks his third straight win, and if he has one good one left he’ll extend this streak against a moderate group he certainly should beat. The ex-classer is dropping from $32,000 to $25,000 for connections who clearly don’t view him as a viable long term racehorse. At 4/5 on the morning line, he’ll offer no value in a race that probably should be left alone.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Ball Don’t Lie
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Ball Don’t Lie earned a monster number when breaking his maiden over the local main track last month and is logically the 4/5 morning line favorite to repeat on the raise in this year’s edition of the Lazaro Barrera S. for 3-year-olds over seven furlongs. He’s the controlling speed if he wants to be but from his cozy outside draw the son of Blame can stalk and pounce if the connections prefer to teach him something.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:12 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Proof He Rides
Backups/savers: 1-Give Me the Lute; 5-Grazed; 4-Barristan the Bold (GB)

Forecast: Proof He Rides is an interesting Bay Area invader with three wins from his last four starts and rising speed figures with each outing. First or second in his two grass starts to date, the quick son of Idiot Proof catches a field without his kind of zip and almost certainly will inherit the early lead without having to be sent. With another forward move for new trainer S. McCarthy, the lightly raced six-year-old gelding (with five wins from 10 starts) can steal a purse as a win play and rolling exotic single.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Epione; 6-Moonlight Tryst.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Epione returns to the main track after being outrun in a very quick turf sprint and a repeat of her debut effort two runs back – a solid third place finish with the two ahead of her returning to win – should be good enough to earn a diploma in this maiden special weight dash for older fillies and mares. Moonlight Tryst, a daughter of American Pharoah finally making it to the post at age four, shows a series of okay drills and really won’t have to be a world beater to act with these. She’s drawn comfortably outside and will have no excuses.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:16 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4-Freedom Lass
Backups/savers: 1-Indy’s Star.

Forecast: Freedom Lass shows up in a $32,000 seller in what we’d have to concede is a logical class drop for a mare who at age seven hasn’t won a race since April of 2022. She’s most comfortable when held up early and allowed to take hold late, and in a mile grass affair with a sufficient amount of early speed signed on the P. D’Amato-trained mare should be capable of producing a winning late kick. However, she’s 9/5 on the morning line and won’t offer much wagering value.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:49 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: 2-Man O Rose
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Man O Rose has won four of his last five with rising numbers that now are borderline stakes-quality. He’s back in three weeks and the relatively quick turnaround is the only concern. Two nice breezes in the interim probably should alleviate any concerns.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 4-Special Club
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Special Club is back sprinting where he belongs, and while he’s probably more comfortable on dirt the son of Clubhouse Ride doesn’t have much to beat in this state-bred abbreviated dash and should be capable of tagging the speed close home. None of the others inspire so let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis May 12, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park begins the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Lake Charles (5/2)-Charles gobbled this kind up last week drawing off by >5 lengths. Starts from the 1-hole again, Aaron Merriman takes the lines this week and is not the morning line chalk. Not going to single, seems to have trouble stacking wins but is a must use.
5-Coop A Loop (2-1)-Came off cover to win at this level last time. Has enough gate speed to land on the point. If not should be in a close-up seat and if anyone is going to down #1 this is a logical choice.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Cyclone Banner N (7/5)-The 9-year-old hasn't fired hot off the bench but seems to be coming around. Merriman won't play games, the pedal will be down from the start. Will look to make every call a winning one and will be a tiny price. Could own this crew with a top effort.
4-Tornbush Hanover (7/2)-This veteran didn't bank over $100k like the one above did last year but tries hard and is in good form. Has big gate speed and so should be racing at the top of the stack. Could trip out off a pocket ride if the chalk is a pretender.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

1-Killowatt Kid N (3/2)-Looked rough last week, broke stride early on and then called it a night. Seemed to get caught in
an awkward position but regardless didn't look great. Drops to a soft spot, will look for a gate to wire attempt and should be a player if close to 100%.
6-Rose Run Xiled (25-1)-Hasn't made great strides facing $30k and $40k claimers. Tonight, gets a new set of hands in Billy Davis Jr and lands in a soft spot. Needs a trip, and an honest pace would help. Should be a price and can't fully trust the chalk.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

2-Bettor In Cash (3-1)-Chris Lems could work a cozy trip with this post draw and has beaten this kind on 2-21. Should relish the company and be in the mix at the wire.
6-J Chip (7/2)-Not loving the morning line price but does appear to drop into a winnable situation. Makes the 3rd start since shipping in from HoP and will look for an aggressive steer.
9-Dreamfair Charro (12-1)-The last time Davis Jr steered was 2 back against this kind. Stayed inside and rallied down the lane to finish 2nd at 22-1. The same type of trip could happen here following one of the two inside horses off the gate. The price will be right, and this veteran could get sucked around.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,5/1,4/1,6/2,6,9
Total Bet=$24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Churchill Downs - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Gourmet
Cutback player finds an easier spot than the last few, and she might be fast enough to take advantage of the rail draw at this longer one-turn trip. Think she'll graduate today.


#7 Songmaker
She has some upside off the chase-and-fade debut run, but I worry that line is going to lead to her taking just a little too much cash. One of the ones.


#3 Illusion
Wouldn't be any surprise to see her land this after a decent Keeneland effort – just a matter of preferring the top two more.


Race Summary
Race Summary: Gourmet has some route pace to use from the inside while trying a softer group, and I think she'll be able to find a spot on the tempo that's relaxing enough to score.


Churchill Downs - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#6 Dissolved
He'll move to the turf for the first time off a decent effort behind an easy winner last out, and he might offer a price that's just playable enough this time around.


#7 Tapit Shoes
He has some tough names in his company lines, and he's back off the break after a stopping effort at Saratoga. Forgive him for that one which sent him right to the bench, and the form looks pretty tough.


#2 Athens Moon
He caught a decent winner in that last one when racing off the claim, and I think he's got some room to bounce back a little bit off that one. Forward player for a piece.


Race Summary
Dissolved can play with this group on either surface, but I think he has some appeal while moving to the grass for the first time. Capable as the second or third choice?


Churchill Downs - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#3 Mondgetsbuckets
Firster goes with an interesting sprint pedigree and a solid string of works leading up to this, so get a look at him on the track and tote, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's live today.


#8 Reagan
He took a big step back last time out, but something more like his debut run would probably keep him in the mix if he's able to get back to that today.


#4 Sahalat
He's back off the bench after what felt like a decent enough Ellis debut last year, and a move forward off that while making his 3-year-old debut would keep him in the frame.


Race Summary
Mondogetsbuckets meets some horses with underneath form so far, and he gets a top rider in the irons at first asking. Worth a look.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pocatello DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=pod0512zf.pdf&exp=05/14/2024&pds=POD_-_05/12/2024&var=RACE_DATE=05/12/2024;TRACK_CODE=POD&SAP=FREEPICS)


Pocatello Downs - Race 5

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $2 Trifecta ($1 Box) / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)



Trial • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $2,000 • Post: 2:20P


QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS & OLDER. FILLIES & MARES. OPEN TO MIXED BREEDS. MAIDENS AS OF JANUARY 1ST 2024. QUALIFIED HORSES WILL BE SUBJECT TO HAIR TESTING. $10,000 ADDED BY POD TO FINALS MAY 26TH. WEIGHTS: 126 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EYESA NOYZ CHICK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. RUNNNING REVENANT: Quarter horse has the highest last rac e Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. LA PUNSADA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the d istance/surface.



1

EYESA NOYZ CHICK

2/1


4/1




5

RUNNNING REVENANT

4/1


9/2




2

LA PUNSADA

8/5


6/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

EYESA NOYZ CHICK

1


2/1

Average

70


65


4.9


0.0


0.0




2

LA PUNSADA

2


8/5

Average

67


62


4.1


0.0


0.0




3

PRADA N MARFA

3


7/1

Slow

0


0


6.2


0.0


0.0




4

JBC HORALIA

4


5/1

Average/Trouble-prone

67


52


4.4


0.0


0.0




5

RUNNNING REVENANT

5


4/1

Slow

70


69


6.2


0.0


0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=sa0512zf.pdf&exp=05/14/2024&pds=SA_-_05/12/2024&var=RACE_DATE=05/12/2024;TRACK_CODE=SA&SAP=FREEPICS)


Santa Anita Park - Race 5

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 5-6-7) $0.50 Late Pick 5 (Races 5-9)/ $0.10 Superfecta Leg 1 of $3 All Turf Pick 3 (Races 5-7-9)



Starter Allowance $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 107 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 3:12P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * BARRISTAN THE BOLD (GB): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GIVE ME THE LUTE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PROOF HE RIDES: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. GRAZED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DISKO TRIBUTE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.



4

BARRISTAN THE BOLD (GB)

5/2


6/1




1

GIVE ME THE LUTE

2/1


6/1




2

PROOF HE RIDES

5/2


7/1




5

GRAZED

4/1


8/1




3

DISKO TRIBUTE

5/1


9/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

GIVE ME THE LUTE

1


2/1

Stalker

104


106


97.4


101.4


97.4




5

GRAZED

5


4/1

Stalker

102


100


95.2


96.0


88.0




2

PROOF HE RIDES

2


5/2

Stalker

100


105


84.4


100.6


95.6




4

BARRISTAN THE BOLD (GB)

4


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

104


105


90.8


102.6


98.6




3

DISKO TRIBUTE

3


5/1

Trailer

105


96


91.2


96.2


87.7




6

PAUL VINCENTS POEM

6


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

89


77


62.2


78.0


66.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Miles CityPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=mc0512zz.htm&exp=05/14/2024&pds=MC_-_05/12/2024&var=RACE_DATE=05/12/2024;TRACK_CODE=MC&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 MUST BE MAGIC 10/1




# 5 ONE SWEET FIGHTER 7/2




# 2 GAME FOR TARZAN 9/2




MUST BE MAGIC is my selection especially at a long price. She looks like a very strong contender based on sire's progeny results as two-year olds. ONE SWEET FIGHTER - Win percentage with this jockey and handler combo - 44 percent - formidable. GAME FOR TARZAN - Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. Deserves a chance with one of the top sires on the grounds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=ls0512zm.htm&exp=05/14/2024&pds=LS_-_05/12/2024&var=RACE_DATE=05/12/2024;TRACK_CODE=LS&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Lone Star Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:31pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 BARBACOA (ML=5/1)
#4 ROMAN GENERAL (ML=2/1)
#5 COPPER STATE (ML=8/5)


BARBACOA - My expertise says this is the only presser in the race. In the last race, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Lone Star Park. I'd expect a better race in this race. ROMAN GENERAL - Always be wary of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. This gelding is in good form, having run a strong race on April 21st, finishing second. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. COPPER STATE - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on April 27th. Should be in tune with the horse even better in today's race. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a good race within the last 30 days. Racing at a similar level as last race on April 27th at Lone Star Park. I think Ashford has found a good spot for him, and I like his chances in today's race. Just check out his most recent speed fig, 72. That one fits in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 PALMETTO DEVIL (ML=4/1),

PALMETTO DEVIL - Didn't hit the board on Mar 16th at Oaklawn Park. Followed it up with another lackluster try. Tough to support any questionable contender in a sprint event if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #3 BARBACOA on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [4,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ccp0512zz.htm&exp=05/14/2024&pds=CCP_-_05/12/2024&var=RACE_DATE=05/12/2024;TRACK_CODE=CCP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Stakes - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 90

SERENA'S SONG S. MTH - R8 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,000 TO START. $2,000 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS WERE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY, THURSDAY, MAY 9, 2024, WHICH INCLUDES ALL FEES. THE WINNER TO RECEIVE $60,000, $20,000 TO SECOND, $10,000 TO THIRD, $5,000 TO




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 BEACH DAZE 15/1




# 8 VENTI VALENTINE 9/2




# 1 TRAVERSE 8/1




BEACH DAZE has a strong shot to take this race especially at a long price. Bowman has one of the best jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to investors +4 percent. Could beat this group given the 102 Equibase Speed Figure posted in her last outing. This mare has a very good winning percentage in dirt route races. VENTI VALENTINE - She has been racing well as of late while recording strong speed figures. She looks formidable in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. TRAVERSE - Has earned formidable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. Mott has a solid win percentage with horses moving in dirt route races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=wo0512zm.htm&exp=05/14/2024&pds=WO_-_05/12/2024&var=RACE_DATE=05/12/2024;TRACK_CODE=WO&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:54pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,700 Class Rating: 91

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 CLASSIC DANCER (ML=8/1)
#7 QUIET INTENT (ML=6/1)


CLASSIC DANCER - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speedball facing sluggish sorts today. QUIET INTENT - You always have to be on the prowl for profit making jockey/conditioner combos; we have an instance right here. The 90 last race fig looks strong on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MOON LANDING (ML=2/1), #6 SIR SAMUEL (ML=3/1), #8 GOOD RAPPORT (ML=4/1),

MOON LANDING - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Long layoff and no drop in level of competition. SIR SAMUEL - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races recently. Improbable to see him doing it this time either. You always believe this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he comes up short frequently. This rallier looks to have no chance without a speed battle on the front end. GOOD RAPPORT - Can't play this pony in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair recently. The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this mount as a likely underpriced contender.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #3 CLASSIC DANCER on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None