rikdizzy
08-19-2008, 05:38 PM
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis:
The only place I see value in this game is in the total. Snell has been total garbage on the road (1-7, 7.83ERA, and a .345 AVG). Looper has been a pretty good pitcher this year, but he is much better on the road than at home (4-6, 4.50 ERA, .290 AVG). The total of 9 runs seems very reachable with these two on the hill in a hitters ballpark. My main concern is that Looper has pitched pretty well over his last few games, so can the Pirates help out at all? I think they can get 2 runs and I could see the Cards getting 8 or more.
Florida @ San Francisco:
I see some value in this game as a straight up play on the Marlins, but seeing as they are on the road, and assured of getting all 9 innings of at bats, I like them at -1.5 a little bit more. Nolasco has been very solid over his last 4 starts. He also has good numbers on the road (6-3, 3.92 ERA, .249 AVG). Correia hasn't faired that well at home (1-2, 4.58 ERA, .293 AVG). Normally I would be worried that the Marlins had to make a cross country flight, but they had a day off yesterday to recoup a bit.
Boston @ Baltimore:
Boston is paying a fair amount of juice in this game, but there are a few reasons that I like them here.
1. Dice K is absolutely nails on the road (6-0, 2.04 ERA, .159 AVG)
2. Cabrera has a good record at home, but there is a big red flag for me (28 walks in 61 innings). That is a walk almost every other inning, and against teams like Boston, that can spell disaster.
3. Dice K has been very strong his last 3 outings.
I like that Boston is on the road, so taking -1.5 wouldn't be a terrible option, but when I lay 1.5 I like to get my payoffs in the +, not -
::fingerscrossed::
The only place I see value in this game is in the total. Snell has been total garbage on the road (1-7, 7.83ERA, and a .345 AVG). Looper has been a pretty good pitcher this year, but he is much better on the road than at home (4-6, 4.50 ERA, .290 AVG). The total of 9 runs seems very reachable with these two on the hill in a hitters ballpark. My main concern is that Looper has pitched pretty well over his last few games, so can the Pirates help out at all? I think they can get 2 runs and I could see the Cards getting 8 or more.
Florida @ San Francisco:
I see some value in this game as a straight up play on the Marlins, but seeing as they are on the road, and assured of getting all 9 innings of at bats, I like them at -1.5 a little bit more. Nolasco has been very solid over his last 4 starts. He also has good numbers on the road (6-3, 3.92 ERA, .249 AVG). Correia hasn't faired that well at home (1-2, 4.58 ERA, .293 AVG). Normally I would be worried that the Marlins had to make a cross country flight, but they had a day off yesterday to recoup a bit.
Boston @ Baltimore:
Boston is paying a fair amount of juice in this game, but there are a few reasons that I like them here.
1. Dice K is absolutely nails on the road (6-0, 2.04 ERA, .159 AVG)
2. Cabrera has a good record at home, but there is a big red flag for me (28 walks in 61 innings). That is a walk almost every other inning, and against teams like Boston, that can spell disaster.
3. Dice K has been very strong his last 3 outings.
I like that Boston is on the road, so taking -1.5 wouldn't be a terrible option, but when I lay 1.5 I like to get my payoffs in the +, not -
::fingerscrossed::