8-30-08

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky / teddy covers

3:30PM ET CFB 4* Best USC (-19.0 / -110) vs Virginia
3:30PM ET CFB 5* Top Oklahoma State (-7.0 / -110) vs Washington State
7:00PM ET CFB 3* Action Auburn vs Louisiana Monroe OVER 49.0 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

LT Profits

6:45PM ET CFB 2* Action Louisiana Tech (7.5 / -110) vs Mississippi State
7:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Northern Illinois (8.0 / -110) vs Minnesota
8:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Michigan State (4.5 / -110) vs California

[timbob]

ace-ace / allen eastman


4-Unit Play. Take ‘UNDER’ 40.5 Utah at Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-105

6-Unit Play. #171 Take Oklahoma State (-7) over Washington State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-108

3-Unit Play. #203 Arkansas State (+19) over Texas A&M (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-105

4-Unit Play. #162 Take Oregon (-13.5) over Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-108

[timbob]

Welcome to the first edition of the NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 1

Recapping 2007

Since this is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, we have no results to brag about. Sports Insights did have another positive year with NCAA Football Smart Money and Square Plays, so check out those valuable Betting Systems.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a membership. We are a leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 0-0 = 0.0%

NCAA WEEK 1

The faces are ready to be painted. The beer is cold for the tailgate. The fans are ready to sing the fight song, and the marching band is leaving the field. No preseason games for the NCAA, only Spring games and Fall two-a-days to get the teams prepared. Week 1 can always be a guessing game based on Pre-season polls and lasting impressions from 9 months ago, but we're ready for teams to battle on the way to the BCS Championship Game in Miami.

Warning to all new readers of the Sports MarketWatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We anticipate there will be quite a few lopsided bet games this week due to the cupcakes on the schedules of many top teams. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

Bowling Green vs Pittsburgh (8/30 -12:00P)

Pittsburgh is being heavily hyped heading into the season despite a 5-7 record in 2007. Sophomore RB LeSean McCoy broke the Big East and Pittsburgh records for yards by a freshman last season, amassing 1,328 yards. The previous Panthers' record was held by NFL Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett. McCoy also tallied 14 TDs. Junior QB Bill Stull returns after missing last season with an injury.

Bowling Green isn't receiving much attention after getting stampeded by Tulsa 63-7 in the GMAC Bowl, but they did end the regular season with four straight wins. They return eight starters on offense, including Junior QB Tyler Sheehan (3,264 yards and 23 TD in 2007) and his top two WRs. The Eagles also return nine starters on defense, including the entire secondary containing multiple all-conference players.

All that preseason hype for Pitt has transferred over to the betting marketplace. This is the most lopsided bet game of the weekend, with the Panthers receiving over 90% of the bets. The line has only moved half a point with those percentages, so we like going against the public and taking Bowling Green and the points against a Pitt team that still hasn't proven anything.

Bowling Green +13

Utah vs Michigan (8/30 - 3:30P)

Michigan hopes to begin this season on the right foot after last season's shocking defeat at the hands of Appalachian State in the Big House. The start of the Rich Rodriguez era takes place at home against Utah. The Wolverines still haven't named many of their starters for the season opener, as Rodriguez is still trying to find the players that best suit his spread offense. Adding to this is the one-game suspension of RB Kevin Grady for an offseason DUI arrest. He missed last season with a knee injury, but he is one of the few returning players considered a good fit for Rodriguez's system. Michigan does return a solid defense that should keep games close.

Utah won 8 of their 9 final games last season, with their only defeat coming by a touchdown on the road to a top-25 BYU team, to finish 9-4. The Utes return eight starters from an offense that averaged over 26 points per contest in 2007. They also return eight starters on a defense that led the Mountain West Conference in defensive scoring last season, allowing only 16.8 points per game.

Michigan is receiving 68% of bets, but the line has actually moved in the opposite direction. Pinnacle opened at Michigan -3.5, but have since moved to Michigan -3, indicating some sharp money on Utah. We'll go with the sharps and against the public, to take Utah and the points. Most books are at Michigan -3, but you can still find some books with a line of Michigan -3.5, including SIA.

Utah +3.5 (Sports Interaction)

Tennessee vs UCLA (9/1 - 8P)

Traditional powerhouse Tennessee travels to LA to welcome Rick Neuheisel back to college football. Neuheisel returns to his alma mater and brings offensive mastermind Norm Chow with him as offensive coordinator. The Bruins lost starting QB Ben Olson to a season-ending foot injury early in fall camp, and JC transfer Kevin Craft gets the opening start. UCLA's defense finished last season ranked 14th in the nation against the run, and they will have to have a good day against Volunteers RB Adrian Foster and a strong offensive line. The Vols defense was up-and-down last season, but they finished the year with two strong showings against top 25 teams.

The intrigue in this game comes from the public backing the away Volunteers and pushing the line in that direction. We like home dogs at Sports Insights, especially when when they're receiving more than a touchdown in the spread. Tennessee opened as -7 favorites at Pinnacle and other books, but are currently sitting at -7.5 at most books due to receiving over 75% of public bets. We're looking for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow to keep it close and maybe sneak out a win at home, so we're taking the Bruins +7.5.


UCLA +7.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0)
Bowling Green +13
Utah +3.5 (Sports Interaction)
UCLA +7.5

It should be another exciting NCAA season. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com

[timbob]

WILD BILL CFB

Memphis + 9 (5 units)
Nebraska -14 (5 units)
Washington State + 6 (5 units)
Florida -33 1/2 (5 units)
Kansas -37 (5 units)
Illinois +8 (5 units)
Virginia +21 (5 units)
Rutgers -5 1/2 (5 units)
Ucla +6 (5 units)
Under 70 1/2 Florida-Hawaii (5 units)
Arizona St-Idaho Over 62 (5 units)

[timbob]

ATS Weekly Review Football Selections

***Best Bets***

Utah (+3) over Michigan
Washington (+ 13 1/2) over Oregon


***Preferred***

Virginia (+19) over USC
Memphis (+ 7 1/2) over Ole Miss

[timbob]

Gamebreaker College Football Saturday

Power Triple Play

Virginia Tech
Boston College
Clemson

[timbob]

Alex Smart

8:00PM ET CFB 3* Action Michigan State (5.0 / -110) vs California

[timbob]

Robert Ferrrrrrringo

SATURDAY'S SELECTIONS

3-Unit Play. Take #171 Oklahoma St. (-7) over Washington St. (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
Here we have two teams that are at two completely different stages. Oklahoma State is a dark horse in the ultra-competitive Big 12 which, to me, is the No. 2 conference in the country. Washington State is breaking in a new coach, an entirely new offensive system, and a new quarterback to replace the school’s all-time leading passer. The Cougars are a second-tier team in a conference on the decline (at least for this year) and I think they are still finding themselves. Also, Wazzou players have been dinged up over the past couple weeks and I’ve read reports that Wulff has said that the number of injured players is “unacceptable”. We already know they will be starting a freshman left tackle and they just dismissed DT Andy Roof this week. Further, this game is being played in Seattle, which negates some of the WSU’s home-field edge and will only make the OSU speed that much more lethal. Oklahoma State is an experience team, with a veteran quarterback leading a sharp, athletic offense. The Cowboys know what they’re doing, and coach Mike “I’m a Man” Gundy said he learned a lot from last year’s opening-week beat down at Georgia. He will have his Cowboys in Seattle a day earlier and they will be more prepared for this contest. We’ll take the talent and the more advanced offense in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #185 Southern California (-19.5) over Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
This is one of those games that I’ve looked at and I just don’t see how it could NOT be a blowout. And it’s not that I am so overwhelmed by USC. That’s not it. It’s that Virginia caught lightning in a bottle in 2007 and were – literally – about a half-dozen plays away from being a 4-9 or 5-8 team. They lost their heart and soul in Chris Long and have been gutted on both the offensive and defensive lines. They lost their quarterback, two of their top three wideouts, and seven of their nine starting linemen. Much like the South Carolina game, this is a situation that I just don’t think that UVA will score more than 10 points. The Trojans, on the other hand, will find ways to score with their plethora of skill position players. Also, I like it that they are going on the road to start the season. It gets them out of their comfort zone, gets them away from everyone at home telling them how good they are, and makes them focus on just what’s going on between the lines. The ACC has been dreadful against other BCS schools and is 36-56-3 ATS in nonconference games over the last two years.

2-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+13.5) over Tulsa (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
I think this number is a little thick for a Tulsa team that is trying to replace seven defensive starters and All-World quarterback Paul Smith. The Golden Hurricanes rang up nearly 700 total yards against the Blazers last year at home, but won just 38-30. Now they open on the road, against a more experienced, improved, revenge-minded UAB club, without their quarterback as a two-touchdown favorite? UAB is 11-1 SU in home openers dating back to 1996 and they are 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last eight years. Tulsa is not a great road program, traditionally, going just 17-32 SU over the last eight seasons. And UAB has a history of early-season surprises. Remember their seven-point loss AT Oklahoma in 2006? Or how about their seven-point loss AT Tennessee in 2005? I remember both clearly. And I think that they might actually get the upset this time around.

2-Unit Play. Take #165 TCU (-6.5) over New Mexico (6 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
I am looking for a steep drop-off from New Mexico, a team that had a nice W-L record (9-4) but a weak ATS mark (5-7) last year. Basically, despite a host of talent and one of the better offenses in the Mountain West, the Lobos overachieved and got a bit lucky. Not this year. And not in this game. TCU has been dominating in conference over the last several years (34-14 SU in L6 years, 15-7-2 ATS in L3) and they have owned the Lobos. They have won three straight in the series by an average score of 38-16, including last year’s 37-0 blowout. New Mexico brings back just 10 total starters from that game, including just one offensive lineman, zero linebackers, and zero DE’s. TCU welcomes back 15 starters from the team that rocked the Lobos, including eight defensive starters. The Frogs have a load of experience and a great coach. If this game was played later in the year at this line I might stay away. But I just think that TCU is much further along than NMU and that will negate any home-field edge.

(I WOULD WAIT TO PLAY THESE NEXT TWO PICKS BECAUSE I THINK THE LINES MAY REACH +28)

1.5-Unit Play. #195 Louisiana-Monroe (+26) over Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
It’s a similar theme to the weekend: Auburn has a new offense, two new quarterbacks, two new coordinators, and are just 3-3 SU in their last six home openers. Yet they are laying nearly four touchdowns. Curious. Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Charlie Weatherbie. Last year they covered as 26-point underdogs at Clemson and won as 25-point dogs at Alabama. In 2006 they went 3-1 as an underdog of 20 or more points, nearly winning at both Kansas and Kentucky, while also covering at Arkansas. In 2005 they covered at Georgia early in the year also, and in 2004 they covered at both Auburn and Arkansas as underdogs of more than four touchdowns. This is a veteran Warhawks squad, with eight retuning defensive starters and six three-year starters on offense. ULM is 9-3 ATS in the last two years as a road underdog and 12-5 ATS over the L3 years. They are also 8-3 ATS over the last four years as an underdog of 20 or more points, with most of those covers (7-2) coming on the road against SEC opponents. Tony Franklin knows UL-M from his days at Troy, but the Warhawks held Troy to two of its lowest outputs (24 each) the L2 years. That means Monroe might be more familiar with Auburn’s offense than the Tigers are!

2-Unit Play. Take #189 Idaho (+27) over Arizona (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
The Wildcats are just 3-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven years and just 1-7 ATS in the last three years. Idaho has covered its first game of the year – a road game as a huge underdog against a marquee BCS foe – in each of the past three years. Last year they actually put up nearly 200 yards of offense at USC to easily cover a 47-point line, losing 38-10. In 2006 they lost by just 10 at Michigan State (as 29-point dogs) and in 2005 they lost by just 12 at Washington State (as 29-point dogs). Arizona can’t stop anyone and the Vandals, like Arizona, return 10 starters on offense. Arizona is without a key offensive weapon and I have little, if any, confidence in Mike Stoops. And Willie Tuitama, for that matter. The Stoops-Willie combo is a bit shaky, and Stoops is just 2-5-1 ATS in nonconference games in his tenure at U of A. And that doesn’t count three shaky wins over Northern Arizona in non-lined game (agv .win: 20 points). Arizona has also won seven straight home openers, but just by an average of 20 points. I think Idaho can score just enough to keep this one interesting and keep us in the back door.

[timbob]

Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, August 30, 2008
$49.00 Guaranteed: We are currently on a 101-61 run with all of our guaranteed selections! Today in COLLEGE FOOTBALL we are featuring our 5000* ELITE NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $49 and you will pay only after you win! We were 33-11 last year in College Football so make sure you POUND THIS WINNER!! 8/29/2008

5000* ELITE NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
178 Florida -34 12:30 EST

[timbob]

Sat, 08/30/08 - 3:30 Tommy Rider | CFB Side
triple-dime bet185 Southern Cal -20.0 (-110) Bodog vs 186 Virginia
Analysis:
There is no reason for me to wait on this one. I've already bet it big. Some may look at this as being a square play. Well, you can call me Sponge Bob Square Pants because I'm all over the Trojans in this game. Everyone knows about USC and their amazing defense so I'm not going to waste your time talking about the obvious. But let's take a look at the Cavs. This offseason, the Virginia coaching staff visited Texas Tech so they could employ elements of the Red Raiders high flying spread offense. That's great. There's only one problem: Virginia has no quarterback. There is a chance that three different quarterbacks could play in this game for Virginia. It's like me saying I want to date a Supermodel. That's a great idea in theory but in reality, no good looking girl would even talk to my ugly ass.



So, Virginia is going to throw the ball a lot more this year and its first test with its new offensive system just happens to be against the fastest, nastiest defense in the country. Good luck with that. By the way, did I mention that the Cavs must replace virtually everyone on both their offensive and defensive lines? The Trojans believe they are the best team in the country and they have a chip on their shoulder after falling short of the National Title game last year. So what does this all mean? It means that Virginia is going to get hammered and that's why I'm releasing this as my WEEK 1 CFB TRIPLE PLAY

[timbob]

Colin Cowherd:

USC
Tennessee
Missouri
Utah
Cal
Oregon

[timbob]

norm hitzges

utah
wyoming
colorado
mich st

[timbob]

Here is a nice dog play off my card for Saturday courtesy of selectivesportssystems.The play is game 159 at 7:00 eastern the Western Michigan Broncos.The Broncos return 18 starters from last years squad and should be no pushover for a Nebraska team that severely underahieved last year.The Broncos are a solid 9-3 ats as road dogs from 14.5 to 21 long term.They also fit 2 nice opening week systems one that is 19-4 ats the other that is 14--3 ats.Lets take a look at the 14-3 system.What were looking to do in opening week play is to take certain road teams in there first game of the season, if there playing at home in a conference game next week,and todays opponent is also playing there first game of the year.Teams in this set have covered 14 of 17 times, with the 12 of them winning straight up.With Nebraska returning just 12 starters from last years dismal 5-7 team will take the Broncos. to hang with the Huskers here on Saturday.The overall record on plays at youwinnow is 105-69 since march 1st.This record can be retrieved at any time,bol with the Broncos GC-

[Mr. IWS]

Players of America



Today's Selections


TCU vs. N MEX
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: TCU Horned Frogs vs. New Mexico Lobos
The Play: New Mexico Lobos +7.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup:
And we're off! Six total plays to kick off the college football season this Saturday. Keep in mind it is important to get a nice, solid feel for all of these teams before placing any wagers over our heads. Welcome to the 2008-2009 NCAA football season, brought to you by your very own Players of America.

Our first release comes to us live from the state of New Mexico. At 7:00PM EST, the Lobos of New Mexico will play host to the TCU Horned Frogs. We'll be all over the home dog here, and this is why. The Lobos are not a bad team. It is almost a slap in the face for Vegas to smack seven points on these fella's backs right off the get go. This team WON a bowl game last year and piled up an overall 9-4 record. Don't get us wrong, TCU is a solid overall team, but come on. The Lobo's absolutely laid it on Nevada opening week last year 23 to zip. After that they smacked UNLV 27-6. They went on through the season and beat Colorado State, San Diego State, Wyoming, Sacramento State, Arizona, New Mexico State along with a very talented Air Force team. These guys can play football. That is one thing their good at. Now, let's rewind a bit. Last season NM went into Fort Worth, Texas and got their rear ends handed to them by this same TCU group. Don't think that a little revenge isn't lingering in these player's minds.

Donovan Porterie is back assuming the starting role at QB for the Lobos. This guy makes it all happen. He's over looked, under-hyped and gets little credit more of less because of that Mountain West Conference out west. He threw just eight picks last season behind 3060 passing yards. In addition, he completed 59% of his passes. He had the absolute worst day of his career last season against this TCU team and now is the time to go out and regain that composure.

The Frogs are legit all the way around. "Legit" enough to come in and lay a TD on the line to this team? Not really. They are good when their good and bad when their bad. Their inconsistency cost them some decisions last year as they played dead against Utah and couldn't handle the passing attack of the Air Force Falcons (something the Lobos will be sure to exploit). Wyoming also played TCU's game as they squeaked out a win last season against the Frogs.

All in all, this one comes down to value. There is absolutely, positively no reason that this New Mexico team doesn't start this fresh season out at 1-0. Vegas is begging for action on a short line with a highly touted and hyped TCU team from the past. Don't fall into trap they've set. Porterie, the Lobos and home field advantage plus the underdog status for a 3* / 30 unit wager Saturday evening.

New Mexico 28, TCU 17


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UTAH vs. MICH
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Utah Utes vs. Michigan Wolverines
The Play: Michigan Wolverines -3.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
You have got to be kidding. All the sharps think they're on to something here, right? Utah, the talk of the town...upset central to the "big time" Michigan Wolverines. "They lost to Appy State to open last year, they aren't that good!" "They've got all kinds of drama in the head coach position, question marks in the roster, and more!" SAVE IT...please. Utah is out classed, out coached, over matched in virtually every position and WILL be out played today in The Big House. You may laugh and say this one is a trap, but so be it...we'll dive in head first for the bait.

The Wolverines have a lot, and we mean A LOT, of eyeballs on them this Saturday. They may have question marks all over the place, but Sunday morning those turn into exclamation points. The Utes come in with that lethal passing attack, and more than likely a clear frame of mind. People are forgetting, Michigan went out with a bang last season. They went out how a major-conference team is suppose to. They went out Bowl Champions of a supposed sub par league. They went out knocking a "BCS Contender" back to where they came from. They showed life. They showed pride. Adapting to changes in Michigan may have been difficult for many of these young players, but that is part of the collegiate process...changes.

Digging up stats, figures and trends won't be necessary here. Michigan is Michigan. They are a powerhouse, smash mouth football team and on Saturday, August 30th they take hold of those reigns again by, making a big time statement. The blue and yellow, the Big M, the Wolves minus the small margin for a 1* / 10 unit wager.

Michigan 30, Utah 17


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VT vs. ECU
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. East Carolina Pirates
The Play: East Carolina Pirates +10.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
Our next release will be a doozy. Coming live from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, the Virginia Tech Hokies meet the East Carolina Pirates for an opening show down. Both of these teams are looking to take their program to the next level. Both are capable of big things this year with Tech probably getting a little more notoriety than the Pirates.

There is quite a contest at the quarterback position for Va Tech. Red shirt senior Sean Glennon has recently been tabbed the starting QB for the Hokies. He'll make his debut this afternoon. The highly talked about Tyrod Taylor will be sidelined as a red shirt this season, his sophomore. On September first last season, the East Carolina Pirates waltzed into Virginia and faced this very team. They came out behind at the end of the day, 17-7. They lost to the #9 ranked team in the country, the Hokies, by ten points in Blacksburg. If that alone doesn't tell you something, or give you some sort of idea the type of energy and intensity this team plays with, then you don't know football very well. Blacksburg, VA has been one of the toughest locations for a football team to travel to and play in.

ECU went a respectable 8-5 overall last season. They topped things off on December 23 by beating a very good Boise State team 41-38 in an absolute thriller. Other big wins for this squad included UNC, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida and more. They play with heart, they play with passion and to be, in essence, at home in front of family and friends this afternoon, it's a great spot.

Flip on ESPN at Noon EST Saturday for this one. Expect adrenaline to be pumping with this nationally televised dual, and the underdog East Carolina Pirates to put up a fight to the very end. These fellas plus double digits is well worthy of a 1* / 10 unit early day wager.

East Carolina 24, VA Tech 22


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OK ST vs. WASH ST
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Washington State Cougars
The Play: Oklahoma State Cowboys -7.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


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MISS ST vs. LA TECH
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Play: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +7.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


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ILL vs. MIZZ
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Missouri Tigers
The Play: Over 58.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A

Bob Balfe

College Football Free Play
Arizona/Idaho Over 62
Arizona returns ten offensive starters from a pass happy offense which played great last year. Their first test of the year is Idaho whom may be the worst defense I have ever seen. When Idaho is on offense they will have the luxury of returning all eleven starters against a AZ team with only three starters back and a brand new offensive line. Arizona is going to score at will, but I do think Idaho puts up a good number of points sending this way over the total. Take the Over.

KELSO

100 unit
Florida - 34

Rocky Atkinson

Boston College @ Kent State 7:30 PM EST
Play On: 1* Kent State +10

Boston College is 0-6 ATS last 3 years as a road favorite. Boston College is 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS last 6 games overall. Boston College is 0-5 ATS last 5 games in August. ROCKETMAN Ratings has Kent State to surprisingly win this game straight up by 5.07 points giving us great value in getting double digits. We'll recommend a small play on Kent State as our FREE pick on Saturday! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

BLACK WIDOW

1* on New York Mets +103
(List Pelfrey only)

The Mets are finding ways to win the close games, hitting a grand slam in the top of the 9th last night to beat the Marlins. This comes after the Mets beat the Phillies in the late innings the game before. The great thing about tonight?s meeting with the Marlins is the fact that New York won?t need another come-from-behind victory because they are throwing Mike Pelfrey at Florida Saturday. Pelfrey has been on fire, going 3-0 with a miniscule 1.44 ERA over his last 3 starts. Pelfrey has allowed only 16 hits in 25 innings during this span. The Mets are now 17-8 in their last 25 meetings at Florida. Take the Mets on the Money Line as they lead from start to finish tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

DAVE MALINSKY

GAME: USC @ Virginia Aug 30, 2008 3:30PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: USC

REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTHERN CAL (#185) over VIRGINIA

What happens when you put great talent and great coaching together? USC?s program happens, that is what. And what happens when you give that combination time to fully prepare for an opponent? Routs happen, even when the opponent is capable of matching up. Virginia is not that class of opponent, so now that our sources tell us that Mark Sanchez is looking comfortable again in practice, we can step in here.

Let?s look at some Pete Carroll history with major preparation time since the end of his second year with the program, when he had a chance to put his full playbook into action. First, the bowl games ?

2002 Orange ? USC 38 Iowa 17 as -4.5

2003 Rose ? USC 28 Michigan 14 as -7

2004 Orange ? USC 55 Oklahoma 19 as -1

2005 Rose ? USC 38 Texas 41 as -6.5

2006 Rose ? USC 32 Michigan 18 as -1

2007 Rose ? USC 49 Illinois 17 as -14

That is an outstanding 5-1 SU and ATS, beating the pointspread by a significant 80 points. And remember that even in the Texas loss in the 2005 Championship Game the Trojans led by 10 in the 4th quarter, but could not hold off Vince Young. Now on to openers ?

2003 ? USC 23 Auburn 0 as +3.5

2004 ? USC 24 Virginia Tech 13 as -17

2005 ? USC 63 Hawaii 17 as -36

2006 ? USC 50 Arkansas 14 as -8

2007 ? USC 38 Idaho 10 as -47

A most impressive run there also, and we can excuse the margin against Idaho LY, as Carroll was holding his team under wraps for what was perceived as a showdown game at Nebraska the following week (which his Trojans then went out and completely dominated). And the Idaho contest was the only one played at home, which made it even easier for him to back off.

So what do we see here? First, a complete dominance by the Southern Cal defense, which not only should be the nation?s best this season, but has a chance to be among the best in recent memory. We could see five Trojan starters on that side of the ball draft in the NFL first round next April. That creates a huge headache for a Virginia OL that is breaking in far too many new faces, with only 48 returning starts for the entire group. It means not only a challenge in terms of talent, but also tactics as well, as the Trojan blitzes and complex schemes take a toll. And exacerbating the issue is the lack of experience at QB for the Cavaliers, which creates the real chance of the Southern Cal defense directly scoring points.

The Trojans will also dominate the line of scrimmage when they have the ball, mashing through a Virginia defensive front that does not return a single starter, and will have depth issues on a hot afternoon. The physical presence and leadership of Chris Long will badly be missed in that huddle, as the younger players drag their heads when forced to be on the field far too long.

Yes, Virginia is coming off of a bowl season, but put an * next to that ? the Cavaliers set an all-time NCAA record by going a prefect 5-0 in games that were decided by two points or less. And these were not escapes against major powers, with North Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Connecticut, Maryland and Wake Forest on the list. They are in way over their heads here in terms of talent, and with 14 starters that combined for 378 career starts missing from 2007, the experience is also not there to handle the negative situations that this game will provide. There will be plenty of such situations ? in the only dress rehearsal before having two weeks to prepare for Ohio State, Carroll can go for the jugular here, knowing that it is the only chance to get the timing down for both units. And with only the travel roster on hand there are few options for letting up anyway ? that is an awfully talented plane.

[Mr. IWS]

Special K Sports

20 Star - Northern Illinios +8

20 Star - Florida Atlantic +24

20 Star - Arkansas State +19.5

[Mr. IWS]

BOB BALFE

College Football
Oklahoma State/Washington State Under 66
Oklahoma State has a good QB in Zac Robinson, but he will be without his best RB and WR from a year ago. Washington State starts this season with a new coach and a QB with minimal experience. The Huskies were horrible on defense last year, but have a solid LB core this season and should be much improved. This game is at a neutral site in Seattle. 66 points will be a lot to score in an opening game. Take the Under.

"Diamond in the ruff play"
Louisiana Tech +8 over Mississippi State
This is a huge game for Tech as it is a primetime ESPN Game hosting a SEC team for this first time. This team has a bigtime ability QB Taylor Bennett and coach Derek Dooley is determined to put this school on the map. Mississippi State has some injuries at O-Line and will be without first-team All-SEC free safety Derek Pegues. The State offense has never been that good so if Bennett can get on a roll this team has a chance at winning outright. This line opened at 9.5 and now is dropping even with the public betting heavy on Miss State. Take Tech with an option small play on the Moneyline.

Alabama +4.5 over Clemson
Alabama lost all of their games last year by a touchdown or less. Playing in close games builds a strong team and they will be more experienced this year. Clemson has two great RB's which some think will be the top duo in the nation. I have to disagree with that due to the fact last year their numbers decreased in productivity from 2006 and this season they will have a brand new offensive line. Alabama is going to put up points with a offense from last year still in tact and a good QB. Clemson has lost their top four linebackers from last year which should allow Bama to air it out on run the ball with ease. Take Alabama.

Memphis/Mississippi Over 54
Memphis should return a good squad this year with 16 returning starters. The Tigers would love nothing more than too beat Ole Miss as there are many seniors who are 0-3 against them in their careers. Memphis runs a spread offense which is pretty good and has a lot of work to do on defense as last year they were pretty bad. Ole Miss is excited about their new head coach Houston Nutt and excited about Texas transfer Jevan Snead at quarterback. This offense has experience and will play well this year. Mississippi has a few injuries on the D-Line which should allow Memphis to run the ball well. Both teams should move the ball at will today on offense. Look for this game to go Over the total.

Arizona/Idaho Over 62
Arizona returns ten offensive starters from a pass happy offense which played great last year. Their first test of the year is Idaho whom may be the worst defense I have ever seen. When Idaho is on offense they will have the luxury of returning all eleven starters against a AZ team with only three starters back and a brand new offensive line. Arizona is going to score at will, but I do think Idaho puts up a good number of points sending this way over the total. Take the Over.

Major League Baseball
Phillies +130 over Cubs
Myers/Lilly

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law
3% Oregon/washington Under 63

2% Idaho +27
2% Louisiana Tech +7.5
2% Memphis +7.5
2% Texas -23.5

1% Ul-lafayette +10.5
1% Usc/virginia Under 43

[timbob]

LARRY COOK

3* on Wisconsin Badgers -26.5

The Wisconsin Badgers return 17 starters this season and are picked to finish second in the Big Ten conference because of it. Akron?s entire defensive backfield will have a new look, considering they lost four of five starters in the secondary from their 3-3-5 scheme last year. Reggie Corner and John Mackey combined for 10 interceptions last year, and both are gone from the Akron secondary this season. That means Wisconsin will be able to move the ball through the air whenever they decide to. Senior Allan Evridge, a Kansas State transfer, is expected to be taking the snaps under center. Evridge will be working behind an offensive line that returns four starters. These four horses up front have combined to make 85 starts between them. P.J. Hill is back at running back after rushing for 2,805 yards and 29 touchdowns in his first two seasons as the Badgers? starter in the backfield. Now that?s a solid foundation to work with. Wisconsin is 53-34 ATS in their last 87 Saturday home games. The Badgers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games overall. Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Meanwhile, Akron is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road contests. Bet Wisconsin at home.

[timbob]

ATS Locks

7 units Wyoming -12.5
7 units Idaho +27
2 unit parlay on above
5 units TCU -6.5
5 units UAB +13
4 units LaTech +8

[timbob]

Rest of Norms plays

NCAA 2-0

Double Play--Utah +3 vs Michigan
Double Play--Wyoming -11 vs Ohio
Double Play--Colorado -11 vs Colorado St
Double Play--Michigan St +4.5 vs California
Utah/Michigan Under
Memphis +7.5 vs Mississippi
Wisconsin -26.5 vs Akron
W. Michigan +14.5 vs Nebraska
Oregon -13.5 vs Washington
New Mexico +6.5 vs TCU
Oklahoma St -7 vs Washington St
Florida -34.5 vs Hawaii
USC -19.5 vs Virginia
ULaLa +10.5 vs So. Mississippi

[timbob]

las vegas sports advisors

NCAA football
8/30/2008 at 7:00:00 PM
Florida International at Kansas


Kansas

[timbob]

Carlo Campanella

Game: Michigan St. at California Aug 30 2008 8:00PM
Prediction: Michigan St.
Reason: Michigan State opens the NCAA season on Saturday with a tough trip to the west coast to face the Cal Bears, but must "take" the points here as they?ve been a money machine during Head Coach Mark Dantonio?s rookie season while owning a 5-1 ATS on the road and 5-0 ATS as Dogs, while never losing by more than 7 points last season! Cal opened last year with 4 straight wins, however, they won just 2 of their final 8 games while posting a 1-7 ATS record. Tough spot to rebound against an aggressive unit from the Big 10.

7* Play On Michigan State

[timbob]

The Gold Medal Club

Ohio vs Wyoming 2:00pm
PLAY ON WYOMING -11

These teams met last year in Ohio with the Cowboys coming out on top 34-33 despite turning the ball over 7 times! Whats changed?
Well, Ohio has lost QB Brad Bower and 1st team ALL MAC running back Kalvin Mcrae.
For Wyoming who managed to cover 2 games ats last season, we have the entire offensive line back to open the holes for standout running back Wynel Seldon.
We see one team on the rise and the other in decline. A home opener, with a sleeper team , we will lay the chalk here as the Cowboys will dominate from start to finish.
Note Ohio 11-1 ats in there last 12 on grass, while Wyoming 1-12-1 in there last 14 on grass..we're not biting!

[timbob]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Akron at Wisconsin (Saturday 8/30 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Wisconsin -26.5 (-110)

Coach Bielema has taken this Wisconsin team to January Bowl games his first two years. But this may in fact be his best team yet. The offensive line is one of the best in the country and they have several backs that can do damage running the ball. They return 17 starters from a 9-win team a year ago. The Zips finished 3-5 in the MAC last season and return only 13 starters which is tied for fewest in the conference. They were outgained by MAC opponents last year by 70+ yards per game, and have just five defensive players returning. The defensive line struggled against MAC opponents so how will they fare versus one of the top offensive lines in the country? You get the picture. This is a lot of points but we see a Wisconsin rout here, and will lay the heavy points.

[timbob]

CKO
Confidential Kick-Off

11* Fresno State
10* Syracuse
10* Florida
10* Michigan State
10 * Kentucky


Utah,Pitt New Mexico,Colorado

[timbob]

Power Sweep Week 1

4* Wyoming over Ohio 38-13
3* USC over Virginia 35-7
3* W Michigan (+) over Nebraska 27-30
2* Louisiana Tech (+) over Miss State 20-23
2* Missouri over Illinois 34-21
2* Arkansas State (+) over Texas A&M 17-27

[timbob]

WINNING POINTS

****BEST BET
MEMPHIS over MISSISSIPPI* by 6
MEMPHIS 33-27.

***BEST BET
ALABAMA over CLEMSON by 7 (Atlanta)
ALABAMA 27-20.

[timbob]

Northcoast

Totals
Under Fla
Under Kansas
Both 3's

Small College
4 w mich
3 La Laf
3 Ark St

[timbob]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michael Alexander

Hawaii vs. Florida (NCAAF)
Play: Point Spread: -34.5/-108 Florida

After getting demolished in las year's Sugar Bowl the Hawaii Rainbows hope to make that a distant memory when they travel to the "Swamp" to take on the Florida Gators today. The visitors come into this one not only off a big Bowl loss but also with the loss of their three year starting QB Brennan and head coach June Jones. To add insult to injury their QB picked to replace Brennan, Graunke, was not put on the roster due to personal reasons.

In the meantime the Gators come into this one with an offense that ranked No. 3 nationally in scoring (42.5 points per game) last year and looks to be even more potent this season because of yet another influx of talented freshmen and seven returning starters. On defense the Gators had a lot of injuries last season and that forced coach Meyer to shuttle six freshmen into the rotation at different points and now that young group has experience to back up its talent.

SUPPORTING TRENDS: FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. FLORIDA coach Meyer is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.

Not many teams will be able to compete with the Gators on a regular basis, and Florida’s biggest competition will come from within the SEC which is not the case today. It's a lot of points to give but it's not much of a matchup. I'm taking the Gators.


3Daily Winners

No Illinois vs. Minnesota U (NCAAF)
Play: Point Spread: -7.5/-110 Minnesota

Normally would love a team like Northern Illinois in this spot, 20 returning starters, against a team from BCS conference who figures to be near the cellar. However, the Huskies have new coach in Jerry Kill and we have have already seen what has happened to Baylor and SMU with their new leaders. NIU is usually pretty solid with 7-3 ATS record against the Big Ten, with one big difference, they are almost always catching 10 or more points. Minnesota was 1-11 last year, but have 15 starters back with more experience. The Golden Gophers are 12-1 and 9-3 ATS in first home game and 22-13 ATS in non-conference action. If Northern Ilinois was at original +10.5, might have been worth a look, at this number, the Gophers are Golden.

Oddswiz

TCU vs. New Mexico (NCAAF)
Play: Point Spread: 6.5/-101 New Mexico

Last year TCU shut out New Mexico 37-0 but that score really not indicative of the difference between these two teams. A look at common opponents suggests that the talent level between these two much closer than that one game. TCU in better shape with returning starters but REVENGE can be sweet in college football, especially when your a touchdown home dog. This game opened -5.5 over a month ago and has been bet up to -6.5 even 7 with heavy juice in a few spots. We'll do a lean on New Mexico +7 here.

[timbob]

LT Profits

6:45PM ET CFB 2* Action Louisiana Tech (7.5 / -110) vs Mississippi State
7:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Northern Illinois (8.0 / -110) vs Minnesota
8:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Michigan State (4.5 / -110) vs California

[timbob]

Wisky -26.5 I would take this all the way up to -27.5 maybe 28, Wisky just returns to many starters especially on the offensive line and with P.J. Hill looking healthy could be a long day for the Zips defense

Pitt -13 after a few dissappointing seasons, Wannstedt has the players he recruited in place. they start off with a tough opening game againest a tough bowling green team favored to win there conference. The key to this game is one of the top backs in the country LeSean McCoy.

Virginia Tech -8 anytime I can lay just over a touchdown with a top 20 team againest a small school like east carolina I'll jump on it, if they were to play 4 weeks from now we'd be laying well over 2 TD's

GL to everyone and look back around 2:30 for added plays, until I get the site up and running all plays will be free for everyone. Now make sure your beers are cold and you have all your snacks ready it's college football saturday boys, lets make some money!!!

Bator

[timbob]

Highprofitsports

5* game of the week Nebraska -14
3* Pitt -13
3* Cal -4.5

[timbob]

Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Club


12:00 PM EDT

3 STAR SELECTION

East Carolina +9½ over Virginia Tech (@ CHARLOTTE, NC)

The Hokies are off a season in which they captured the ACC title and a BCS Bowl invite, and now open their 2008 season against a Pirates crew off an upset victory over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl.

Frank Beamer's Va Tech team won 11 games last season, but ended with a sour note, falling to Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz's were a pleasant surprise, winning eight games and finishing second in Conference USA's East Division. Now, off their bowl victory, there is plenty of reason for optimism in Greenville this season, as the Pirates are predicted to vie for the conference crown once again.

Tech has won the six straight in this series; however, it was a close 17-7 game in last year's season-opener, in which East Carolina covered the spread by 17+ points. Despite the loss, the Pirates were not intimidated by the Hokies, even in enemy territory, and certainly won’t be here in a neutral site.

Offensively, the Hokies were nothing special in 2007, and it may take them awhile to get on track in 2008. Senior Sean Glennon is back at the quarterback position, but he will be short on weapons. There is uncertainty in the receiving corps, where Tech must replace its top four pass catchers. Beamer is likely to give a few youngsters a crack at producing on the ground as well, with veteran Branden Ore being dismissed from the team in the spring.

The Hokie defense returns just four starters from a year ago, although Beamer usually gets the most out of this unit. It is in the front seven where Tech will need to fill the most holes, including the loss of standout LBs Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and rush end Chris Ellis.

The Pirates will have senior Patrick Pinkney at QB, although we expect to see talented junior Rob Kass as well. Tailback Chris Johnson was sensational for the Pirates last season, combining for 2,960 all-purpose years, but has now taken his talents to the NFL. East Caroline will plug in Brandon Simmons and spread the ball around to a wide receiver corps that has a bevy of good athletes, highlighted by the return of Jamar Bryant.

The Pirates loved to plunder the opponents last season, leading the conference with 31 takeaways and with nine starters back in the fold, this unit figures to be among the best in the league yet again.

This game should be similar to last year, in which East Carolina made a game of it. Skip Holtz is proving himself to be a good college football coach, following in his dad’s footsteps. He always has his team ready to go, especially in the role of dog. His Pirates have not only covered the number the last 4 times in that role, but have won the games outright. ECU is also 7-0 ATS when playing with revenge for a SU loss & ATS win, and not an underdog of more than 24 points.

The win in Hawaii last year for the Pirates was a tremendous boost for this program and that should carry over here, as after winning a Bowl Game as a double-digit underdog, teams at the right price have started the following season with a strong showing. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:

In Game 1, play ON a team (not a favorite of more than 19 points) off a Bowl Game SU win as an underdog of 10+ points last season. Since at least 1982, these confident teams are a perfect 11-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than a dozen points a game.

We expect East Carolina to give the Hokies fits once again and see this game decided by a FG for a comfortable cover by the Pirates.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA TECH 27 EAST CAROLINA 24



2:00 PM EDT

4 STAR SELECTION

WYOMING -11 over Ohio

The Cowboys open the 2008 campaign with a home bout against the Bobcats in a non-conference tilt. Head coach Joe Glenn’s seat is getting a little warm in Wyoming after 4 seasons without a bowl game, so he’ll have his Cowboys ready to rope and ride on Saturday to get an easy “W”.

As for Ohio, they are off a 6-6 season, including a narrow 34-33 home loss to Wyoming.

Now, coach Frank Solich has a major issue on his hands as he sets out on another season of Ohio football, as Kalvin McRae who ended up with just under 4,400 yards for his career is gone. As recently as last week the coaches were still undecided on who would be the featured back in the offense, suffering through some injuries and lackluster play.

The offense for the Bobcats was rather mediocre last year as it was, while the defense wasn’t any better. Now, they have to deal with the loss of Todd Koenig, the team's top tackler.

Junior college transfer Dax Crum is the new top gun for Glenn at Wyoming. Crum is just a sophomore, but having been named an honorable mention All-American and one of the top offensive players in the NJCAA is certainly nothing to sneeze at. The running game should be solid again with running backs Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon who combined for 1500 yards last year, providing one of the most punishing one-two punches in the league.

Junior John Fletcher was a huge part of a run defense that ranked 27th in the nation last year with a mere 123 ypg allowed as he ranked among the league's top linemen in terms of tackles with 60. He returns for the Cowboys, as do 6 more starters on defense.

Some may think the Bobcats will have a “revenge” edge here as falling short at home to Wyoming last season; however, an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows just the opposite. It states:

In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 4½-14½ points seeking revenge for a SU loss scoring 25+ points.

For 20 seasons, these teams have gone 0-13 SU & ATS, failing to cover by more than 15 ppg! The last 2 qualifying teams and 3 of the last 4 were MAC teams.

We also note that the Bobcats are little more than pussy cats when it comes to avenging a loss. Specifically, they are a pathetic 0-12 SU (-23.6 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) as a road underdog seeking revenge for a home SU loss (not as a favorite of more than 5 points). Meanwhile, Wyoming is 6-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg) at home in non-conference games when not favored by more than 24 points.

We see plenty of value with the Cowboys and jump on their bandwagon here.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WYOMING 34 OHIO 13



3:30 PM EDT

5 STAR SELECTION

USC -19 over VIRGINIA

The mighty Trojans begin their quest for another national title this weekend, as they travel to take on the Cavaliers.

Pete Carroll's crew is once again the favorite to win the Pac-10 and contend for the national championship after going 11-2 overall in 2007 and capping the campaign with a 49-17 destruction of Illinois in the Rose Bowl.

The Cavaliers also had a highly successful 2007 campaign, winning nine games overall and placing second in the ACC's Coastal Division with a 6-2 mark; however, there are some dark clouds on the horizon for Al Groh and the program.

As usual, USC was an offensive juggernaut last season and although there are holes to fill in 2008, there is seemingly a revolving door of talent at the school and the cupboard is never bare. Taking over under center should be Mark Sanchez, despite coming off a dislocated his left kneecap during practice on August 8th. The Trojans are very deep in the backfield with the likes of Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, and C.J. Gable. Patrick Turner is a huge target at and could emerge as a top receiving threat, while big things are also expected from junior Videl Hazelton and sophomore Damian Williams. The Trojans had a devastating defensive unit last season, and even bigger things are expected from the unit in 2008.

The Cavaliers were merely average in terms of offensive production in 2007 and gone is QB Jameel Sewell. True freshman Peter Lalich got a taste of action in 2007 and is the only returning signal-caller who got any snaps last season. He will battle senior Scott Deke and sophomore Marc Verica for the starting nod, and whoever goes here will be drowning in sea of Trojan red.

Virginia’s ground game should be a strength of the offense with the return of senior Cedric Peerman; however, he’s coming off an injury and is likely to be smothered by USC. Once the Trojans take a commanding lead, the Cavs will have to abandon the run and become sitting ducks. Virginia’s defense played well last year, allowing 20 ppp; however, gone is All-American Chris Long up front and he will be impossible to replace.

Last year, the Cavaliers had a lot of things go their way, winning a national record five games by two points or less. That doesn't seem likely this time around, as Coach Groh will have his hands full just being competitive week in and week out. His team is simply overmatched in this game and will be doing well just to score.

USC will be ready to come out strong here, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+17.8 ppg) in first true road of the season under Pete Carroll.

Some may point to the Trojans next game, and figure they’ll be looking ahead to hosting Ohio State; however, they have a week off following the trip to Virginia, so they should be completely 100% focused on the task at hand. In fact, double-digit road favorites coming off a solid year and starting the season with extended rest following their first game have been tremendous as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

In Game 1, play ON a Saturday road favorite of more than 10 points before 7+ days rest, home in its next game and off 5+ SU wins last season.

Since 1998 these teams are 10-0 SU & ATS, beating the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. The last qualifying team was none other than USC when the Trojans traveled to Hawaii and blew up the Warriors, 63-17, covering an enormous 36-point spread.

Another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows that the Trojans should continue their momentum from their Rose Bowl romp. It advises:

In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent.

Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average. The Trojans are a bit under the radar, not being the preseason #1, so we look for them to make a statement here with a blowout win over the Cavaliers

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 35 VIRGINIA 9








8:00 PM EDT

4 STAR SELECTION

Michigan State +4 ½ over CALIFORNIA

It’s the Big Ten vs. the Pac 10 Saturday night, in what should be a great game, as the Spartans travel to take on the Golden Bears.

Michigan State is coming off their first winning season since 2003, as last season they won their last two regular season games to earn a bowl bid.

As for California, they posted their sixth straight winning season last year due to a Bowl win over Air Force, finishing with a 7-6 ledger.

The Spartans used a two-headed running attack last season, and that led to nearly 200 rushing yards per contest. Javon Ringer returns for Michigan State, giving the Spartans their home run threat out of the backfield. Brian Hoyer will once again be under center for the Spartans, looking to improve on his numbers from last year.

For the Bears, QB Nate Longshore struggled at times and was eventually hurt, and his absence opened the door for Kevin Riley, who performed well while under center. After a long battle in the spring, Riley was given the nod to start, and will be under center in the opener. He will need plenty of help, as the top four receivers from a year ago are gone. Another issue will be the ground attack, which will have to replace Justin Forsett, who has moved on to the NFL.

This should be one of the more exciting games in the first week of the season, and we like Dantonio here to keep his team in this game and give them a chance to pull out a late win. Michigan State is a strong 6-0-1 ATS as an underdog since late 2006, including 5-0-1 ATS under Dantonio.

These teams met a few years ago, when the Bears upset the Spartans on the road, so Michigan State will have a little payback in mind. They are also 4-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) seeking revenge for a home SU loss, while Cal is an ugly 0-9 ATS (-15.8) in the Regular Season when not getting more than 7 points vs. an opponent playing with revenge.

An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrates that non-conference road teams have been solid when looking to start the season by avenging a loss as a big favorite. It states:

In Game 1, play on a non-conference road team (not an underdog of more than 17 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss as a favorite of more than 8 points in the last matchup vs. an opponent not played in opponent’s final contest of last year. This has been perfect situation for 2 decades, going 11-0 ATS, covering the spread by 12 ppg.

Following this contest, Cal has a game at Washington State, which might be where their focus is, as they are 0-5 ATS (-9.5 ppg) in non-conference home games before a conference game. The Bears are also active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that reveals with a conference road game coming up, teams off a Bowl victory have not been motivated enough to cover the spread in their season opener. It advises:

In Game 1, play AGAINST a home team off a Bowl Game SU win in its last contest the previous season and before a conference road game vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 13+ points.

Since 1990, these teams are 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average.

The Spartans are an under-rated team and should surprise the Bears with a fierce fight.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 28 CALIFORNIA 27



8:30 PM EDT

3 STAR SELECTION

Missouri -8 ½ over Illinois (@ ST, LOUIS, MO)

A couple of preseason Top 20 teams meet in St. Louis on Saturday, as the sixth-ranked Tigers of the Big 12 Conference battle the 20th-ranked Fighting Illini of the Big Ten. Both teams are coming off surprising seasons, as Ron Zook turned the Illinois around and took his team to the Rose Bowl, while Missouri won the Big 12 North Division title and went 12-2, with Oklahoma being the only team to defeat them on the season.

For Illinois, junior quarterback Juice Williams is the spark plug of the offense. He’s always been a great runner, and last year picked up his passing numbers. This year, Zook and his staff are hoping for further growth from their most dynamic player, but it won't be easy, as Williams will have to do so without the services of RB stud Rashard Mendenhall, who was scooped up in the first round of the NFL draft after garnering Big Ten MVP honors. The biggest question for the offense heading into this opener is who, if anyone, is capable of being even half the player that Mendenhall was for the Illini.

The Tigers finished last season ranked in the top-10 in three major offensive categories, as scored 40 ppg behind nearly 500 yards per game. The return of QB Chase Daniel, receivers Tommy Saunders and Jeremy Maclin along with three offensive linemen means there is likely more of the same on tap this fall.

Illinois was brought back to earth by USC in the Rose Bowl, and that’s likely to continue with too much weight on Juice Williams. Teams that got destroyed in a Bowl Game have done very poorly as a Game 1 underdog, as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 2-21½ points off a Bowl Game SU loss of 28+ points last season vs. an opponent not off a Bowl Game SU loss of 14+ points in its last game.

Going all the way back to 1982, these teams are a horrible 0-13 SU & ATS.

We also note that Missouri has simply had the Illini’s number, especially when not having to play on the Illinois home field. The Illini are 0-7 SU & ATS vs. the Tigers away from home. Missouri figures to build on their tremendous season last year, and we look for them start this season where they left last year, with a resounding SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 34 ILLINOIS 17


10:00 PM EDT

5 STAR SELECTION

OREGON -13½ OVER Washington

Pac-10 rivals face off Saturday night when the Ducks host the Huskies. Since taking over at the helm for Washington, head coach Ty Willingham has not enjoyed much success, leading the team to a miserable 12-35 ledger. This year doesn’t look to hold much more promise, placing Ty squarely on the hot seat.

As for Oregon, it opened last season with eight wins in the first nine games, but the final three regular season contests resulted in defeat after QB Dennis Dixon went down. Despite the late collapse, the Ducks recovered their “mojo” at the Sun Bowl and crushed South Florida in that game by a 56-21 final. The Ducks did lose some significant talent from that club, but a high level of talent remains on the roster, accounting for their Top 25 ranking.

The Huskies' offense will revolve around their very talented and versatile quarterback Jake Locker, although he comes in here nursing a sore hamstring. He is still raw, as he only completed 47.5 percent of his throws and had just 14 pass TDs against 15 interceptions. He did also rush for nearly 1000 yards and 13 scores, making him a tremendous dual threat entering this season, but it remains to be seen how much he will be able to do on the ground due to his injury. He won’t have many familiar faces around, as the wide receiver corps was depleted, and RB Louis Rankin has to be replaced after becoming the first 1,000-yard rusher at Washington since 1997. Sophomore Brandon Johnson was expected to be the main back for the Huskies, but he is suffering from a calf injury that leaves his status for this opener questionable.

Over the past few seasons, the Huskies have been atrocious defensively, and while the addition of new defensive coordinator in Ed Donatell brings some hope, expectations should not be great, as it will take time to learn the new system.

The quarterback position is definitely the main issue for coach Oregon’s Bellotti as he enters the 2008 season. Nathan Costa figured to take over the starting job, but he will miss much, if not all, of the season with a knee injury. As a result, redshirt sophomore Justin Roper will lead the offense. He should be able to step in here and do the job, as he led the team to the crushing defeat of South Florida in the Sun Bowl. He played well in the team's final scrimmage last Friday and has been around the program long enough to get a strong command of the offense. Roper will have the luxury of throwing to Jaison Williams, one of the most dangerous wideouts in the Pac-10.

Seven starters return on the defensive side of the ball for Oregon, giving the Ducks a veteran unit that should improve on last year's numbers.

Laying nearly 2 TDs here in a conference rivalry game is reason for cause; however, we have a pile of numbers to support Oregon covering the spread. When they win, they usually win big, as they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 SU victories. They have also dominated this series, going 4-0 SU & ATS vs. the Huskies since 2004. The Ducks have done well in these early conference clashes, going superb 4-0 SU (+21.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) in Game 1 conference home games since 1989.

Oregon also qualifies for some our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. Showing that teams can build off an explosive Bowl Game showing, we have a system that states:

In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent. Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average.

Playing at home against a conference foe they have dominated of late has been a great way to start the season for favorite, as another POWER SYSTEMS reveals with:

In Game 1, play ON a non-Thursday conference home favorite of less than 35 points vs. an opponent seeking revenge for SU losses in the last 3 matchups. Since 1993, these teams are 8-0 SU & ATS, again covering by more than 15 points on average. We note that the last team to qualify for this spot was these same Ducks. To start the 2006 season, Oregon hosted Stanford, and simply covered the 11’-point spread by 26’ points with a 48-10 romp.

The Huskies did put some points on the board against Oregon last year, which may give them some false hope. As it turns out, conference road teams have not been up to the task of starting the season seeking to avenge a defeat in which they put a fair amount of points. We have yet another POWER SYSTEM that advises:

In Game 1, play AGAINST a conference road team (not an underdog of more than 16 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss, scoring 25+ points.

Going back 20+ seasons, this system is a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS. The “revenge” team have failed to cover the spread by more than 17 points a game on average! When one team dominates a conference foe, there is little revenge motivation in their favor. The edge goes to the team doing the dominating, and we look for the Ducks to put the hammer down here and whip the Huskies for a SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 38 WASHINGTON 17

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Pointwise:
4 Mem. Kan
3 N Mex, Mich St, Fla, KSt,
2 Miss St, Tulsa, Syr, Fresno

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Greg Shaker

CFB Total
double-dime bet154 Mississippi / 153 Memphis Under 54.0 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAF: Memphis Tigers at Mississippi Rebels - Under 54 -110 | Unit Value: 2 UNIT "Total of the Week"

This will be the 5th consecutive season to bet the UNDER this this game. I am 3-1 in the previous 4 and the only one that went Over was the year before last, in a game that featured 17 points in the last 11 minutes and 53 total points. That makes 4 years straight that this game has gone UNDER this posted total. The Rebels D is going to be pretty good this year as they return a strong D line, led by pass rushing terror Greg Hardy. The entire defensive line is going to be very good this year. They do have some question marks at linebacker and the secondary as new faces will appear on the scene but summer practices have been very spirited and the work of the new guys have been good. Jeven Snead takes over at QB for Ole Miss and the home folks are very excited by his potential. But this team will have some offensive growing pains establishing their new offense. Memphis will have a new QB as well and even though he will have an experienced offensive line, and some very good recievers, he will have to go into Oxford to face an Ole Miss squad that is going to be very motivated to re-establish themselves as one of the better D's in the league. The Tigers have a brand new Defensive coodinator and Tim Walton has a lot to work with. His team does return 9 Defensive starters and they are going to be much improved. This contest is a Big Rivalry, more so for Memphis, and they will come to play. I have personally seen the way the ebb and flow in this series and the way things have gone and there is no doubt, that this line is set too high. It has been set this high due to what Memphis has been all about the last 2 seasons. It is set this high because the Rebels collapsed on D last year. It is business back to usual for this one and 55 points is going to be hard to obtain with these two programs that have a lot of players who played with each other in High School. This will be a hard hitting game as usual, and barring some D scores, it should fall UNDER this number. UNDER is 15-6 last 21 Rebel Games, and here comes another one

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Power Play Wins (3-0 Friday)
Pitt -13

Wisconsin -26.5

Oklahoma St -7

Michigan -3

Ole Miss -7.5

Nebraska -14

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PlusLineSports Daily Client Information

DAILY MLB SELECTION:

Saturday August 30, 2008:

Baltimore(Waters) vs TBay(Sonnanstine)

TBay -1.5(+113) Runline Moneyline(-187)

Line Origin: Pinnacle August 30

Game Time: 2:55 CST August 30

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These are Saturday's plays:


*** EZWINNERS NCAA FOOTBALL ***

5 STAR: (149) UTAH (+3) over Michigan
(Risking $550 to win $500)
2:30PM Central Time

3 STAR: (159) WESTERN MICHIGAN (+14) over Nebraska
(Risking $330 to win $300)
6PM Central Time

3 STAR: (183) MICHIGAN STATE (+5) over California
(Risking $330 to win $300)
7PM Central Time

2 STAR: (187) ALABAMA (+4) over Clemson
(Risking $220 to win $200)
7PM Central Time

2 STAR: (180) EAST CAROLINA (+8.5) over Virginia Tech
(Risking $220 to win $200)
11PM Central Time


*** EZWINNERS MLB ***


1 STAR: (961) ATLANTA (+$101) over Washington
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $101)
6:10PM Central Time

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seabass

10 philly, mets, seattle

100 steam play col/san deigo under

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Charlies Sports

Va Tech / East Carolina Over 45 (500*)
Akron +27 (30*)
Northwestern -11½ (20*)
Florida -34½ (20*)
Ohio +13 (10*)

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Dominic Brando's Inner Circle 2008-09 NFL/NCAA Football Records Grid:
2008 NCAA Regular Season (Special 150 Units 0-0-0, Top 100 Units 0-0-0, Regular 50 Units 0-0-0)
2008 NFL Regular Season (Special 150 Units 0-0-0, Top 100 Units 0-0-0, Regular 50 Units 0-0-0)
NFL/NCAA Teaser Club (Special 150 Units 0-0-0, Top 100 Units 0-0-0, Regular 50 Units 0-0-0)

Saturday August 30th, 2008 NCAA College Football Executive Report:

NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Underdog Game of the Week: #211 FRESNO STATE +5/-115 over Rutgers
NCAA Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #211 FRESNO STATE ML +180 over Rutgers

*** Please Note that Fresno State/Rutgers Kicks Off on Labor Day Monday September 1st at 4 PM ET

NFL/NCAA Teaser Club Top Rated 100 Unit Golden Star Lock 4 Team Teaser Release:
1) #132 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS PICK over NC State Wolfpack (Thursday 8:00 PM ET ESPN)
2) #160 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS PICK over Western Michigan Broncos (Saturday 7:00 PM ET)
3) #162 OREGON DUCKS PICK over Washington Huskies (Saturday 10:00 PM ET)
4) #163 TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE PICK over UAB Blazers (Saturday 4:00 PM ET)

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MARC LAWRENCE

CBF - Tcu @ N Mexico
4* N MEXICO

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Frank Rosenthal

Mlb
956 Pirates+115 Sb
958 Astros+120 Sb
960 Fish-110 Sb
966 Dbacks-135 Sb
980 Angels-170 Sb

College Football
149 Utah+3.5 Sb
Under 41.5 Sb
152 Nw Under 57 Sb+
160 Nebraska-14 Sb
163 Tulsa-13 Sb
166 Nex Mex+7 Sb
169 Bc-9.5 Sb
178 Florida-34 Sb
Under 67.5 Sb
179 Va Tech Under 46 Sb
184 Cal-4 Sb
185 Usc-19 Sb
Over 42 Sb
187 Bama+4.5 Sb
191 Utah St+13 Sb+
200 Texas-23 Sb
206 K St-26 Sb