9-4-08

[Mr. IWS]

ness MLB angels

[Mr. IWS]

Lang

15 Dime NYG

Free Sou Carolina

[timbob]

Dr Bob analysis on tonights game, not a rated play

NY GIANTS (-4.0) 21 Washington 17
04:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Sep-04 - Stats Matchup
Washington rallied down the stretch last season to win their final 4 regular season games with backup quarterback Todd Collins in charge of the attack. Collins struggled in the playoff loss to Seattle, Joe Gibbs retired again and the Redskins have a new coach in Jim Zorn. Zorn brings with him a West Coast style offense that will probably suit quarterback Jason Campbell, who completed 70% of his passes as a senior at Auburn in a similar system. The West Coast offense requires accuracy and Campbell has that quality. Campbell only averaged 5.8 yards per pass play last season (excluding a 54 yard hail mary pass that was completed – and random as far as I’m concerned), but he faced a teams that would allow only 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Campbell, while average on a yards per pass play basis, only threw 11 interceptions and he is more likely to limit his mistakes with more short passes in the playbook. It’s tough to say how Campbell will perform with a new offense to run, but I’ll call for numbers similar to last season. The rushing attack was hurt last season by two early season injuries to linemen RT Jon Jansen in week 1 and to RG Randy Thomas the very next week. With those two back healthy I expect Clinton Portis (1262 yards at only 3.9 ypr) and Ladell Betts (335 yards at just 3.6 ypr) to rebound with much better numbers this season. Washington was an average offensive team last season (although worse than average until Collins’ late season heroics) and the Redskins should be about average offensively this season – although they could struggle early on with the new offense (they’ve been inconsistent in the preseason).

Washington’s defense was among the best in the league in the first half of 2007, allowing just 4.7 yards per play through week 8 against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Top cornerback Carlos Rogers was lost to injury and a couple of weeks later All-Pro free safety Sean Taylor was murdered. The Redskins started to get burned deep without Rogers and Taylor, but things turned back around the final 4 games when gifted young strong safety LaRon Landry played mostly as the last line of defense at free safety, which is the position he’ll play this season. Rogers has returned from his knee injury and has reportedly looked strong in camp, so I expect the Redskins’ pass defense to be pretty strong with Rogers, Shawn Springs (coming off another very good season), and Landry all being All-Pro caliber players. The Redskins defended the run well all season, yielding just 3.9 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.3 ypr against an average team.

Washington grades out as a better than average team, but a lot of that depends on how quickly the players get comfortable with the new schemes on both sides of the ball.

The Giants were the most improbable Super Bowl champs ever and their 4 game post-season run could lead to them being an overrated team this season. Eli Manning is not suddenly a poised, mistake free quarterback just because he had just 1 interception in 4 playoff games. Just before his good performance in week 17 against the Patriots Manning was playing the worst football of his career, which is pretty bad given how bad his career was up to that point. Manning threw 20 interceptions in 16 regular season games and finished the season averaging 5.8 yards per pass play (including the playoff games) against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. While Manning has a below average quarterback in every season of his career thus far I actually think he’ll be better than average this season in both yppp and in interception percentage, as last year’ magical run is likely to give him more confidence and give his teammates more confidence in him. New York already has a great rushing attack that averaged 4.5 ypr last season (against teams that would allow 4.0 ypr to an average team) and they should be good running the ball again this season.

New York struggled defensively in a 35-45 opening day loss at Dallas, but star DE Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison didn’t start in that game and the Giants’ defense was much better starting in week 2 with those two players in the lineup. The Giants rated at 0.7 yards per play better than average defensively from week 2 through the Super Bowl, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Giants aren’t likely to be as strong this season with Michael Strahan retired and star DE Osi Umenyiora out for the season due to a recent knee injury. Those two ends combined for 21 sacks and 28 quarterback hurries last season and they’ll be impossible to replace. New York should still be better than average rushing the passer, but they won’t come close to the 3.1 sacks per game that they average in 2007. Less pressure on the quarterback from the defensive line will make it tougher for mediocre secondary to cover opposing receivers and the Giants could go from very good against the pass to average this season. The run defense should remain good with LB Antonio Pierce roaming the middle of the field (although he’s questionable for this game).

The Giants are probably going to be better on offense and not as good on defense this season, and they are certainly not that much better than an average team overall. The Giants look like they’ll be fighting for a wild card spot in the playoffs once again in what should be an 8-8 or 9-7 season.

My ratings favor New York by 3 ½ points with a total of 40 ½ points, which is pretty close to the line, but the Giants apply to a 41-21 game 1 angle.

[timbob]

LARRY NESS COMP MLB PICK for TODAY

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Larry Ness | MLB Money Line
free pick909 MIN (-105) SportBet vs 910 TOR
Analysis: The Twins are stumbling as they get ready to play the final game of their 14-game road trip tonight in Toronto. The Twins had lost six in a row to the Jays as they began the series on Tuesday. Minnesota let a 5-1 lead slip away in that game (lost 7-5) and then last night, after scoring to take a 5-4 lead in the top of the ninth, closer Joe Nathan couldn't hold the lead, suffering his sixth blown save (Twins lost 6-5 in 11 innings). The Twins have now dropped EIGHT of their last 11 games but luckily, remain just one game back of the White Six in the AL Central. Meanwhile, Toronto will attempt to make it NINE straight wins over the Twins, going back to last year. Jesse Litsch (9-8, 4.01 ERA) gets the call for Toronto and he was not sharp in his most recent outing (last Thursday), allowing 10 hits but only three ERs in a 3-2 loss at Tampa. That game followed two strong outings from Litsch, since his return from the minors in mid-August. Litsch had been demoted after a three-start stretch (spanning the All Star game) in which he had allowed 22 hits and 15 ERs over 12.2 innings (10.66 ERA). Litsch had pitched 13 innings without allowing a single ER in games against Detroit and Boston, prior to that shaky outing against the Rays. While the Twins are definitely reeling, they do have Kevin Slowey on the mound, who will enter this game 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA over his last five starts (team is 4-1). Slowey's made two previous starts on Minnesota's never-ending road trip, going 1-0 (team is 2-0) with a 2.92 ERA (15 Ks and just four walks). I may be "spitting into the wind" here, but I'll back Slowey and the Twins.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

Redskins / Giants Under 41½

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (1st of NFL '08 / won 1st CFB Insider 52-7!)-Thursday
My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 7:00 ET. The Redskins overcame the tragic death of Sean Taylor by winning their final four games of the regular season, sneaking intro the postseason at 9-7 (did lose at Seattle in the wild card round, 35-14). Starting QB Jason Campbell was lost with a dislocated kneecap in the first game of that four-game season-ending run but Todd Collins stepped in and played well, especially in the team's final two regular season games. Of course, everyone remembers New York's incredible postseason run, winning three straight road games in the NFC playoffs before upsetting the undefeated Patriots 17-14 in the Super Bowl. Much has changed for the Giants on the defensive side of the ball since last February. Five starters from Super Bowl XLII will not be in uniform on Thursday night. DE Michael Strahan retired, LBs Kawika Mitchell (Bills) and Reggie Torbor (Dolphins) left as free agents, FS Gibril Wilson also left as a FA (Raiders) and DE Osi Umenyiora is out for season after getting hurt in a preseason game with the Jets (knee). However, 10 starters return on offense, as only TE Shockey (traded to the Saints) is missing and of course, he sat out LY's playoff run with an injury. Eli "came of age" in LY's postseason and most expect his improvement to continue. As for the Redskins, QB Campbell is on his third offensive coordinator as he begins just his fourth NFL season, as well as his seventh offensive system in eight seasons, dating back to his time at Auburn. Also, there is first-time head coach Jim Zorn, who has brought his version of the West Coast offense to the nation's capital. Campbell has hardly looked comfortable in that offense, as in his last three preseason games he completed just 11-of-24 passes (45.8 percent) for 70 yards (that's a pathetic 2.92 YPA!) without a TD and one INT. LY's two starting WRs Moss and Randle-El both underachieved plus Zorn has been very critical of the team's two rookie WRs (Thomas and Kelly), saying neither would contribute much during the early part of the season. TE Chris Cooley (66 receptions, 8 TD) is probably the team's best receiver. Eli was terrific in the 2007 postseason, throwing six TDs with just one INT, while compiling a 95.7 QB rating (20 points better than his regular season mark). His supporting cast remains largely the same with Plaxico Burress (70 receptions, 12 TDs) and Amani Toomer (59 receptions, 3 TD) heading up a deep receiving corps, while Brandon Jacobs (1,009 rushing yards) and Derrick Ward (602 rushing yards) man the running game. As for the Giants' D, don't sell it short. I expect the Redskins to struggle this year, as Zorn could be in "over his head." Meanwhile, like him or not, Coughlin is a proven winner. Defending Super Bowl champs are on a 6-0-1 ATS run when opening the following season with a prime time game and I see the Giants easily extending that run here. Las Vegas Insider on the NY Giants.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 20* Non-Conference GOY (1st GOY play TY / 7-1 start to CFB '08)-Sat
My 20* play is on Penn State at 3:30 ET. Oregon State opened the '08 season with a conference road game at Stanford, losing 36-28. The Beavers had a chance late but fumbled the ball away at the Stanford goal line, with just under 50 seconds remaining. QB Lyle Moevao impressed with 404 yards passing and three TDs but he also threw two INTs (one returned for a TD) and also botched a swing pass which resulted in a Cardinal safety. WR Sammie Stroughter missed of most of LY with an injury but looked great in his first game of '08, with 12 catches for 157 yards and two TDs. Fellow WR Shane Morales, who had just 16 catches in '07, almost matched that total in his first game of '08, with 13 receptions for 151 yards. However, OSU's running game, which last year featured Yvenson Bernard (1,214 yards / 13 TDs), gained just 86 yards on 28 carries. Things hardly get easier for OSU this week, as the Beavers must travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. By the way, it should be noted that Oregon State is the only BCS school which is being asked to open the '08 season with back-to-back road games. Penn State opened its '08 season with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina. While it's impossible to make too much of that win, it should be noted that the 66 points were the most scored in an opener by a Penn State team since 1926! I was NEVER a fan of QB Anthony Morelli and senior QB Daryll Clark was a solid 11-of-14 with 146 yards (one TD / no INTs) in the team's opener. He's made even better by a trio of WRs in Butler, Norwood and Williams, who are now all seniors. PSU rushed 43 times for 334 yards in the easy win, as four players ran for 60 yards or more, led by redshirt freshman Stephon Green's 89 yards with two TDs. The Penn State defense owns a veteran DL and 2ndy and should have little trouble with the OSU running game (sans Bernard) and will be fore-warned about Moevao, after his 404-yard effort vs Stanford. OSU's defense allowed Stanford only 301 total yards but 210 of those came on the ground. I guess that should come as no surprise, as while OSU led the nation in rushing yards allowed in '07 (71 YPG / 2.1 YPC), the team returns just THREE defensive starters in '08, including NONE of the team's front-seven! Let's note that OSU traveled to Cincy last year and lost 34-3, traveled to Boise St in '06 and lost 42-14 and visited Louisville in '05, losing 63-27. That's three non-conference road losses by an average margin of 31.7 PPG. That margin sounds about right to me here, as well. Non-Conference GOY 20* Penn State.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' SEC Game of the Month (7-1 start to CFB '08 / 3-0 with GOM plays)-Thursday
My SEC Game of the Month is on South Carolina at 8:30 ET. When these two schools met last October 20 in Columbia, South Carolina, the Gamecocks were 6-1 and ranked No. 6 in the AP poll. South Carolina took a seven-game series winning streak into that game and Steve Spurrier had NEVER lost to the 'Dores in 14 previous meetings (most as Florida's head coach). However, the 'Dores, 13 1/2-point underdogs, won 17-6.. They held South Carolina to 282 total yards and just 26 rushing yards as the team set a school record with seven sacks. The defeat was the first of five consecutive losses for the Gamecocks, who finished the '07 season just 6-6 As for Vandy, the 'Dores won the following week vs Miami-Ohio to move to 5-3, just one win away from being bowl-eligible. That's no small deal, as Vandy hasn't been to a bowl game since 1982. However, similar to South Carolina, Vanderbilt lost its final four games (finished 5-7), with the defense allowing an average of 33 PPG. Both teams won last Thursday, South Carolina 'pitching a shutout' at home to NC State (34-0) and Vandy winning at Miami-Ohio, 34-13. South Carolina's defense was great last week, holding NC State to just 138 total yards and its QBs to five completions in 20 attempts for 49 yards with two INTs. The Gamecocks really struggled for the first three quarters offensively, as QB Tommy Beecher was awful, completing 12-of 22 passes for just 106 yards, while throwing FOUR interceptions. Spurrier replaced him with former starter Chris Smelley and he led three TD drives in the fourth quarter, completing 5-of-5 passes for 92 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Smelley has been named the team's starter this week and look for the team's best WR, Kenny McKinley (77 catches / 9 TDs) to contribute more than his six catches for only 37 yards against the Wolfpack. The South Carolina ground game struggled a year ago averaging just 3.6 YPC but the Gamecocks have four starting OL back in '08 for TB Mike Davis, who gained 101 yards last week on just 14 carries. Vandy QB Nickson had a career-high 166 yards rushing last week and two rushing TDs but that came against a Miami-Ohio defense which is nowhere near as athletic as South Carolina's. Note that Vandy only out-gained Mia-O by 20 yards last week and that in LY's upset of the Gamecocks, Vandy only gained 269 yards. South Carolina does have Georgia up next week but the memory of last year's loss will be all the motivation Spurrier's team needs here to win and win handily. The road team has covered SEVEN of the eight meetings between these schools this decade and that form follows Thursday night. SEC Game of the Month 15* South Carolina.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Gavazzi /PPP

3% S Carolina--
2% Under--


1% NY Giants--
1% Over--


3% Navy

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Sprietzer

SEC GOM

South Carolina