9-6-08

[Mr. IWS]

Special K Sports

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20* Arizona State (Game of Week)
20* Florida Atlantic
20* Bowling Green
20* Central Michigan
20* Notre Dame

[Mr. IWS]

PHIL STEELE / NORTHCOAST COMPS


early bird-alabama-28'

econo#2 play texas tech-10

the college dog of the week is duke+6

power play 4 star auburn-20


NEW MEXICO+ (moutain west play)


#9 big 12 play...OKLAHOMA

[Mr. IWS]

Right Angle Sports

Minnesota at Bowling Green -6

With 17 returning starters (most since 8-3 team in 2001) and the benefit of extra practice time from first bowl game since 2004, the Falcons lived up to their promise with a road win at #25 Pittsburgh last week as a double digit dog. Bowling Green features a dynamic spread offense that can change tempo in a hurry and isn't afraid to mix up formations or use trickery. QB Sheehan had great numbers last year, is now more experienced, and has every single target back from last season. The Falcon defense was a pleasant surprise in the opener. More aggressive schemes and what Insiders called the best tackling they have seen from the unit in at least five years led to a shut out of the Panthers in the second half. Bowling Green is now 6-1 ATS in their last seven regular season games but oddsmakers appear slow to catch up. The Gophers needed a score with under thirty seconds left to beat Northern Illinois in their home opener. They now go on the road where they were 0-5 last year and are just 2-9 the last two years. Minnesota's rebuilt defense under first year coordinator Ted Roof still showed signs of last years struggles giving up 326 passing yards to a NIU freshman QB who was making his first career start. They will get a much tougher test this week and were given fits by spread offenses last year. The Gophers started two redshirt freshman on the offensive line and presently lack the needed depth at wide receiver to run a dangerous spread offense. This team is still a year away from becoming a factor in the Big 10. Bowling Green players and fans should be sky high for this game as they are coming off a road win over a ranked opponent and now will host the first Big 10 team to ever play in Perry Stadium, at night and on ESPNU no less. Give the points.

Play: Bowling Green -6 1 UNIT

[Mr. IWS]

CKO

11* N Dame

10* Minn
10* Wisc
10* Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

GREG SHAKER

NCAAF: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Kansas Jayhawks - Kansas -20 -110
Game Date: 9/6/2008
Note: I don't know which way this line will go, but my best educated guess is that it will go upward when it is all said and done. For now it has dropped 1/2 point. That is why I am getting on it now and there is good reason to believe that we will see a large pointspread win by the Jayhawks. I am not one to lay very many large spreads but I certainly will here. Everything went right for La Tech in their home opener with the visiting Bulldogs of Miss State as they failed miserably in that contest. Miss State threw 3 Int's, they has numerous offensive mishaps, not caused by La Tech's D. La Tech was outgained in this game, and they managed just 14 of 40 completions with 2 Int's. They also ran the ball for only about 3 yards per rush. Those same numbers are not going to get them anywhere as they travel to Lawrence Kansas to play a Jayhawk team that was 8th overall in the country on offense production and 12th overall on D last year. This team has 15 starters returning, including very talented QB Todd Reesing. They were an amazing 11-1 verses the spread last year, making them a bettor's dream. With almost the entire D back, I can't see the visiting Bulldogs having much success moving the ball and putting points on the board. I can see Kansas gathering up 40+ points. I think that we will see that. There is great optimism in Ruston Louisiana about the their team. Even former Bulldog Terry Bradshaw is pumped about their chances this year. But, they are coming off one of their largest wins ever, and they are traveling to a venue that could spell disaster. The Jayhawks punished the poor squads last year at home. Baylor caught a 58-10 whooping. Nebraska got blown clean out of the stadium 76-39. Iowa State lost 45-7. Fla Int lost 55-3. Toledo, Southeastern La, and Central Michigan lost by combined scores of 159-20. BINGO!! Let's enjoy this rout.

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 67 Belmont
REASON FOR PICK:
Week 1 is always the lowest scoring week of the college football season, with offenses needing a bit of work against ‘real’ defenses before they can get in to any kind of a rhythm. Historically, the biggest increase from scoring from week to week occurs between the first and second week of the season. For example, in 2007, scoring increased by more than eight points per game from Week 1 to Week 2, while Overs cashed at a 67% clip. There’s no shame in looking for solid Over’s to bet this week.

Texas Tech put up 639 yards of offense in their opener last week, scoring 49 points, yet we’re getting quotes like these from the Red Raiders. Head coach Mike Leach: “We are a spotty team. I don't think that we played what I consider well more than three series in a row on either side of the ball.” Third year quarterback starter Graham Harrell: “That was a pretty sloppy game and offensively we were pretty sloppy. We've got a long ways to go and a lot of room to get better.” I expect a focused, well executed performance from an offense that scored 41 points per game last year, facing a slower, undersized Nevada defense that struggles to stop high octane attacks.


But don’t sell the Wolfpack’s offense short either. Head coach Chris Ault has found the perfect quarterback to run his pistol offense in sophomore Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Freshman of the Year last season. Eight starters return from an offense that scored 33 points per game last year; six points higher than that at home. Expect a wild shootout in Reno on Saturday Night, sending this game flying Over the total. (#335-336) Take the Over.

[Mr. IWS]

KING CREOLE

90% ATS System

Northwestern Wildcats @ Duke Blue Devils
Play on: DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Since this System hit on Thursday night with VANDERBILT... and it has another qualifier on Saturday, count me IN! Most players are aware that Duke's win over Northwestern last year probably kept the Wildcats out of a Bowl appearance. So there's big time REVENGE going here. But like the Commodores proved 2 nights ago, sometimes it's better to play INTO Revenge.

27-13 ATS since 1980: GAME TWO home DOGS (Duke) playing INTO non-conference Revenge. Shorter dogs of +7.5 or less points have gone 20-8 ATS in this same time span... and an almost PERFECT 9-1 ATS since 1998.

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

Georgia Tech @ Boston College
PICK: 4* Boston College -6.5

One of our prime axioms in college sports is that when major system changes are made in a program the team is likely to take a step backwards regardless of how good the new coach is. We used that to cash an easy ticket against S.M.U. and June Jones last week, and we see more of the same against Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech here, particularly based on the matchups at hand in this game.

Johnson has brought the complex option packages that were so successful at Navy to the Yellow Jackets, and while he will be successful in time, the transition period will be rocky. It was an ugly spring, with 14 fumbles in one April scrimmage, and then nine in the spring game, and despite running mostly vanilla plays against Jacksonville State last week the offense still fumbled five times, losing two. That was against an opponent that they could push around in the trenches, which kept option plays and passes to a minimum, but now it is an entirely different matchup. Not only are they heading to the road, but Boston College brings one of the toughest defensive front seven’s in the nation. The Eagles were #2 against the run LY despite playing without N. J. Raji (academics) and Brian Toal (red-shirt), but now those two are back to create a wall that will not allow much of anything between the tackles. That means that soph QB Josh Nesbitt will have to make things happen on the perimeter in his first college road start, and also through the air. That is unlikely to happen. The B. C. defense held a more experienced Tech offense to 267 yards in an easy 24-10 road win LY, and now the setting is even more favorable.

The inexperience of Nesbitt is only the beginning of Johnson’s problems, however. There are 16 players on the two-deep chart that have never played a single down on the road, including five starters. And with new systems on both sides of the ball, that means the kind of mistakes that come with youth. There is also a major cluster injury problem at LB, with starters Brad Jefferson and Anthony Barnes sidelined, which makes them extremely thin, and will force a pair of true freshmen into action. From Johnson - ”We’re probably going to have our hands forced and we’re going to have to play more of them (freshmen). Just from the standpoint of depth, we just don’t have anybody.”

Because of the inexperience with his playbook Johnson would like to not reach back into his bag of tricks, but he may have to in order to have any chance here. But keep in mind that B. C. defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani was the interim head coach when the Eagles beat Johnson and his Navy team in a bowl game in December of 2006, which meant nearly a full month of studying Johnson’s tactics then, and with many of the same faces still playing for the Eagles, it helps to have them well-prepared now.

[Mr. IWS]

Gold Sheet Phone Plays

Top...E Car
Reg...Fla--Houston--Kan--MdTnSt

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

5* graded play on Florida - Ai Simulator shows an 81% probability that Florida will win this game by 22 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Florida will outgain Miami by a MINIMUM of 2.0 yards per play and also gain a MINIMUM of 450 total yard converting into a MINIMUM of 6.5 yards per play. Note that Florida is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. AiS further shows a 93% probability that Florida will score 28 or more points and a 75% probability that they score 42 or more points. Notet that Florida is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points since 1992. Miami is off a 52-7 blowout win over Charleston Southern. Miami is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Converseley, Florida is off a nice win fo their own defeating Hawaii 56-10 and covering a 36 point spread. Note that HC Myer is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992.

5* graded play on Washington State - Ai Simulator shows a 78% probability that WSU will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. if you had my Thursday night shocking winner on Vanderbilt whereI also added a 1.5* money line amount at +350, this play shapes up in a near identical framework. If available I suggest adding another 1* amount and expect to get near +400 or even a little more for this wager. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that WSU will score 28 or more points. Note that Cal is just 23-52 ATS (-34.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Cal has been a losing investment in this role noting they are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has hit 114-58 making 56.5 units for 66% over the past `10 seasons. Play against a road team versus the money line in conference games, returning 5 or less offensive starters facin an opponent returning 8+ defensive starters. WSU has a strong history of playing at full potential in home openers. The Cougars have won seven consecutive Martin Stadium openers, and 14 of their last 16. Since the formation of the Pacific-10 Conference in 1978, the Cougars have played their first Martin Stadium game of a particular season against a league foe nine times. WSU is an even 4-4-1 in those games. Take WSU.


5* graded play on Florida Atlantic - Ai Simulator shows an 82 % probability that FA will win this game by 14 or more points. FA has hardly had any games where they have a solid chance to win bog adn also score a ton of point. HC Schnellenberger will make certain that his team is fully perpraed adn focused for this opportunity. AiS shows an 88% probability that FA will score 18 or more points. Note that FA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Interesting to note too is the betting pubic has been dead wrong most of the time when the moving the line in FA games. The public has a record of 29% ATS for a 9-22 mark ATS 1992 when moving FA lines. This line opened at 14.5 adn is currently offered at 12.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Take Florida Atlantic.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

5* Penn State
4* Auburn
3* Miami-Ohio

[Mr. IWS]

REAL ANIMAL FREE PICK

Pick title: 2* Miami of Ohio +14 1/2
Pick Date: 09/06/2008
Pick description:
After watching Vanderbilt take apart South Carolina in the 2nd half on Thursday, maybe it wasn’t so bad that Miami of Ohio was only out-gained by the Commodores by 20 yards last week. Also not bad considering Redhawk QB Daniel Raudabaugh threw three interceptions, Vanderbilt scored on a 91-yard punt return, and the visitor was only called for two penalties. Certainly Utah is a solid team. But how many MWC squads in the past 20 years come to the Big House and beat Michigan? The Wolverines had 11 first downs and it was apparent, until the 4th quarter, they were clueless under the new system put in by Coach Rodriguez. The spread offense produced 11 first downs and 36 yards rushing. Mike Hart normally had 36 yards in a quarter. Also don’t be misled by Michigan’s 4th quarter comeback. It was significantly aided by a Utah fumble, a blocked punt, and penalties called on the Utes (15-for-137). If Utah didn’t kick four field goals, the score would have been lopsided. Michigan is a very young team, especially on offense. They will have serious growing pains learning the Rodriguez approach. To make matters worse after losing their two stud receivers in Manningham and Breaston to graduation, last week their best active receiver, Greg Mathews, is doubtful this week because of an ankle injury sustained against Utah. Miami of Ohio is an experienced team with 17 starters back and that’s what you need to rebound from the Vanderbilt game. It’s always a big deal for a MAC team to travel into the Big 10. The RedHawks are 5-1 ATS as a visiting underdog recently after an upset loss as a favorite. Teams with 17 starters or more returning to a team are 25-9 ATS in game #2 if they lost the opener SU and ATS. This figures to be a low scoring game (total 40 ½) and two touchdowns with change looks very appealing. Michigan is 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 24 in Ann Arbor. They are 2-7 ATS recently when hosting non-Big 10 teams and 1-3 ATS versus MAC teams. Take away turnovers and special team mishaps and Miami of Ohio played Vanderbilt even. Normally that wouldn’t be a big deal but knowing Coach Spurrier is 0-2 SU the last two years against the Commodores has me believing Miami can stay competitive here. It certainly isn’t the first time a Michigan number is inflated.

[Mr. IWS]

purelock ?
CFB: Arizona State

MLB: Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO

SATURDAY'S PICK

25 DIME

KANSAS

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers 20* is California
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

kelso
high rollers baseball 15 unit - cards

[Mr. IWS]

Indiancowboy Comp

Akron +4.5

I think it's been a long time since Syracuse has been favored in a ball game, period. It actually amuses me that they are actually giving up points to a team. Note that roughly 60% of the public still favors Syracuse coming into this game, these 2 teams have not played each other at all in recent memory, in fact, I don't know if they have ever locked horns in their football history, Syracuse comes off a 20 point loss on the road at Northwestern which of course, they failed to cover, Akron comes off a 21 point loss on the road at Wisconsin. Note, that this Akron team is sound, they have a great QB in Chris Jacquemain who threw for 2 touchdowns and 0 picks at Wisconsin, a top 15 team in the nation, and actually completed more than 60% of his passes while Andrew Robinson did not throw a TD and threw a pick against Northwestern. In fact, he barely passed for over a 100 yards. Syracuse actually returns more players with 7 on offense (similar to Akron) but 6 on defense while Akron only returns 4. Of course, this is no good if your returning starters are not that good - lol. Having said this, despite the total going under since opening, I simply can't all see all that much defense here as both teams should have some success scoring. But, in the end, don't be surprised to see Akron win this baby Outright.

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams

2000* - Ole Miss Rebels, 500*s - Boston College, Temple, & Kansas

I used Wake Forest as a Thursday night 1500? Lead Pipe Lock on August 28th, as Wake went into Baylor, and blasted the Bears for me.I will go-against the Demon Deacons in this spot, as I believe they are laying a few points too many against an Ole Miss squad that looked very solid in their opening win at home against Memphis 41-24 last Saturday. The Rebels have a home game against Samford on-deck, while Wake's next game on the 20th comes at Florida State.Houston Nutt knows how to get his troups up when installed as the underdog, as he did go 7-1 against the spread his last 8 dog tries at Arkansas. These schools did meet in 2006 at Oxford, and Wake Forest ripped the Rebels 27-3 as the small road favorite.Looks to me like there is a slight revenge factor working in our favor for this one as well!Wake Forest has been a terrible home favorite in non-conference games, as Jim Grobe's team is 0-9-1 against the math their last 10 in that role! Those are kinds of numbers I like to see when I have the visiting non-conference dog baby.Ole Miss QB Jevon Snead and the new "Wild Rebel" formation looks like it will be able to keep pace scoring-wise with Riley Skinner, and his Demon Deacon mates.

Take the points in this 1st Ever 2000? Lock-Zilla Dog of the Year.


2000? - Ole Miss Rebels (3:30 pm)

Paul Johnson's debut at Georgia Tech was a success, as the Yellow Jackets dismantled Jacksonville State as expected. The sledding ain't gonna be as easy in Chestnut Hill today, as BC does have a rugged defense that will be able to stop the Jackets for most of the afternoon.Boston College handed Georgia Tech their first loss of the season last year, 24-10 in Atlanta, and they are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 times these schools have met.Both schools are working with new QB's, but with this being the home opener for the Eagles, and their defense pitching a shutout last week against Kent, I have a feeling BC's stop unit will be able to force a few Tech turnovers in the high-risk option offense that Coach Johnson likes to employ.

Lay the points with Boston College in their home opener today!

500? - Boston College Eagles (12 pm)


I like the underdog Owls at home against the Huskies today.
Temple did me a solid with a 500? opening night winner at Army, 35-7, and things are sure looking up for Al Golden's team, as they are on an 8-4-1 spread run their last 13 games. Better still is their 10-4 spread mark when catching points in their own yard.Connecticut was a 30-point favorite last year at home against Temple, and the Owls made the Huskies sweat for the full 60-minutes in a 22-17 loss. That cover made it 4 straight Give-a-Hoot covers in this series since 2001! UConn is not usaully installed as road favorites, and they do have a monster revenge game at home with Virginia on-deck.

Take any points they are giving as Temple is there today.

500? - Temple Owls (12 pm)


Rock-Chalk Jayhawk was not able to cover in their home opener against Florida International last week, as they won 40-10, but were laying over 35-points.The spread is a little lower tonight, and Kansas definitely is on guard after Louisiana Tech's home upset win over Miss State last weekend.
The Bulldogs were able to force 5 turnovers in their 22-14 upset win last week, but on the road I doubt they will be as fortunate. Remember, the Jayhawks are 15-3 against the spread their last 18 lined games, and 12-2 their last 14 as a home favorite.Lay away!

500? - Kansas Jayhawks (7 pm)

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
CFB 3-0 on the season


Air Force +3 3 star


Iowa State -7 1 Star


Northern Illinois +6 1 Star

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio's 20* CFB Non-Conf BLOWOUT of the Month! - Saturday
Play on Penn State at 3:30 ET. Oregon State has been an unmitigated disaster on the non-conference road the past three years, turning in at least one terrible performance each season. Last year, they went to Cincinnati and lost 34-3 as a three-point FAVORITE. In 2006, the trip wasn?t nearly as long, but the result was equally as painful when Boise State crushed them 42-14 on the blue turf. The year prior, Louisville hung 63 points on them in a 36-point beatdown. All told, that?s an average pointspread loss of 26 points per game! What makes things even more depressing for Mike Riley is that all of those Beaver teams were better than the one he?s fielding this year. That was proven when they lost outright at Stanford last Thursday (another road loss). Overall, Riley is eight-games under .500 in his tenure in Corvallis. Last week, they were outrushed 210-86 by a Cardinal team that had previously averaged just 1.0 YPC in the previous five meetings between the schools. Losing the ENTIRE front seven kills the defense. In Penn State, they draw a very rude non-conference host, one that has won 13 straight at Beaver Stadium over non-Big Ten teams by an average of over 31 PPG. OSU is 1-10-1 ATS in September. We?ll gladly look past the PSU suspensions. Penn State is our Non-Conference Blowout of the Month.

Good luck, Lenny

Lenny Del Genio's **ADDED BOARD** Game of the Year
Play on Maryland at 7:00 ET. Here is a matchup of teams coming in off disappointing performances. The only difference is that Maryland won their game. MTSU saw 2007 end on a sour note with an ugly 45-7 loss at Troy. After getting all season to think about that defeat, the Blue Raiders got the unique opportunity to have a shot at immediate revenge in last Thursday?s season opener. The result? A 31-17 home loss, despite getting four takeaways. They were also outgained by over a full yard per play. Home underdogs, in the first month of the season, that ended last season with multiple losses and are off a conference loss this year are a terrible 5-26 ATS since 1992. Now Ralph Friedgen certainly has no reason to be smiling in College Park this week after his Terps only bested FBS Delaware 14-7 in the opener. However, that is a Delaware team that played for the FBS National Championship last year. Also, sophomore RB Da?Rel Scott ran for 197 yards last week, so there is reason to be excited about this team here. Three missed FG?s made last week?s game look closer than it actually was. Maryland is a perfect 5-0 vs. Sun Belt teams with the average win by 17 PPG. Maryland is our Added Board Game of the Year.

Good luck, Lenny

[Mr. IWS]

Balfe

College Football
Syracuse -4.5 over Akron
It has gotten bad for Syracuse. A once major force in College Football is now giving away tickets for free to the students and still nobody is interested. This program is on the verge of a collapse and coach Greg Robinson has one foot and four toes out the door. Robinson may just be the first coach to get the ax unless this team can start winning. Syracuse needs to win the first of this four game home stand badly. Akron doesn't have much of an offense and is not used to playing indoors. The Zips also have 8 new starters on defense. Look for Syracuse to get the win and cover in a much needed victory.

Nevada +10 over Texas Tech
Every news story you hear is about how this game is going to be a shootout. This will be a very exciting game. Both teams have great offenses, but Nevada has the ability to run the ball and keep Tech's offense off the field. Football is all about rhythm especially in the college level. If Nevada can chew clock Tech might not get the opportunity to light the scoreboard up. The Tech offense is one dimensional and if Nevada can rush the passer and blitz all game they have a shot to win outright. Nevada coach Chris Ault is 20-5 at home while Tech historically falters on the road in key spots. Take Nevada.

UCF +12.5 over South Florida
This short rivalry ends today as both teams will not be on each others schedules for a while. South Florida has won the last three years which makes this a big game for the UCF Seniors. Central Florida is rebuilding their offense, but should play great defense which will keep this game close. South Florida QB Matt Grothe is an unbelievable young talent, but made some negative comments about UCF that will motivate this team. Take Central Florida.

Major League Baseball
Brewers -155 over Padres
Sheets/Peavy

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

3* OH St -33.5
3* AL -29.5
System - E Mich +21.5
Hat - Wisc -20.5
Hat - Ariz -23
Total - Akron/Cuse ov 43
Total - C Mich/GA over 56
Big Gun - New Mex +3
Window - Nevada +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

*** EZWINNERS NCAA FOOTBALL ***


5 STAR: (364) TEMPLE (+7) over Connecticut
(Risking $550 to win $500)
11AM Central Time


3 STAR: (317) MINNESOTA (+5) over Bowling Green
(Risking $330 to win $300)
6:30PM Central Time


2 STAR: (307) AKRON (+4.5) over Syracuse
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2:30PM Central Time


2 STAR: (315) WEST VIRGINIA (-7.5) over East Carolina
(Risking $220 to win $200)
3:30PM Central Time


2 STAR: (348) NEW MEXICO (+2.5) over Texas A&M
(Risking $220 to win $200)
4PM Central Time



*** EZWINNERS MLB ***


2 STAR: (902) NY METS (-$128) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $256 to win $200)
2:55PM Central Time


2 STAR: (904) LA DODGERS (-$115) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $230 to win $200)
2:55PM Central Time

[Mr. IWS]

Sebastian

20* WVA (buy down to 7)
20* MINN over
20* PITT
20* Utah
20* Kansas
50* ARIZ
200* Penn St
200* Ariz St
200* Temple (buy up to 7)
300* New Mexico

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso Sturgeon

Best Bets Club

10 units USF -13.5
4 units Flor Atl -13
3 units BYU -9

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK Triple Crown

W MICH. 8*
PENN.ST.8*
ZONA ST.8*

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE
TITLE: 36-0 ATS CFB Double Awesome Angle Play!

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Miami Ohio
Note: When Miami Ohio takes on Michigan in the Big House early Saturday they will do so with two amazing Awesome Angles working in their favor.

From our powerful database we learn that Game Two favorites off a SU favorite loss are a 'PLAY AGAINST' if they were a bowl team last year facing an opponent either off a loss or win of 20 or less points in which the foe did not cover the spread by more than 12 points as a favorite or dog of 7 or less points in its last game. It becomes a 'play against' because teams in this role are 0-19 ATS since 1980.

Additionally, our database tells us to 'PLAY ON' a team in Game Two if they have 17 or more returning starters and lost SU and ATS in their season opener while losing to the spread by 9 or more points in that game versus an opponent off a loss of 3 or more points. These teams are 17-0 ATS since 1990.

With Miami picked to win the MAC and Michigan still adjusting to Rich Rodriguez's new spread offense, we'll grab the generous points with the RedHawks here today.

We recommend a 5-unit play on Miami, Ohio.

[Mr. IWS]

HSW Early Phones

HSW Early: 4* Hou; 3* ND; 2* Fla
GDWest: steam GOW 1* Penn St
L&M: all 2*s ND, tulsa, texas, neb, geo

[timbob]

Donn Wagner

4 star New Mexico
3 UL Monroe
3 UNLV Under

[timbob]

Millionaires Club

Guaranteed Selections
90% UNDERDOG NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR [ College Football ]
Date: Saturday, September 06, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: We are now 298-157 since joining this web site! Bottom Line is we win with a different approach to handicapping as we have situations that tell us what the line should be by looking at the teams stats compared to line history! This has been very successful for us the past four years! Today we have isolated our 90% UNDERDOG NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR! Yours NOW for just $35 GUARANTEED!

East Carolina +7.5

[timbob]

JB Sports

Best Bets - BC, UTEP, Cuse
Reg - Cent FL

[timbob]

Rob Veno

20 Blue Chip - Bowling Green over, Duke over
10 Chip - Pitt, WVU, ND, Ariz over, N TX over

[timbob]

WUNDERDOG

NCAAF

Game: Connectuct at Temple (Saturday 9/06 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Temple +7 (-110)

Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen when a late TD was ruled out of bounds by the refs, while replays clearly showed otherwise. The Owls return all 22 starters this season, all with a fresh memory of that game. Revenge is a sweet motive! Add to that the fact that this team was told a few years ago that they were no longer wanted in the Big East. The Owls finally have the talent to make a statement about those painful memories. Connecticut was the luckiest team in the Big East last season, getting wins vs. Temple and Louisville that were aided by botched calls. They also got a weather break against South Florida and had a huge surplus in turnovers and relatively few injuries. The result? They finished tied for first in the Big last despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards per game! They looked absolutely horrible against a hapless Hofstra team last week, and won because their talent was just extreme vs the competition. They don't enjoy that edge here, and this one is on the road where the Huskies are just 5-14 in their last 19. The Owls are motivated and pumped up here and we like them a lot to get the cover.

WNBA
Game: Minnesota at Seattle (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (-110)

The Minnesota Lynx make the trip to Seattle to take on the Storm who will put their homecourt magic to the test as they are a league leading 14-1 in Seattle. The fact is the Storm seem to bring their best for the best, but have won by six or less at home to Phoenix, Sacramento, Chicago and Houston! So as much as this one looks like a game for the Storm to just show up, and put one in the win column. It's a letdown opportunity and we look for Seattle to sleepwalk through this one, getting the win, but not the cover. I think this is the perfect "breather" game for them, and the Storm are just 14-29 ATS the past decade coming off an underdog win. I like the Lynx

[timbob]

VegasSnitch

Boston College 5*
Connecticut 5*
Ohio St 2*

[timbob]

Tommy Rider

CFB Total Triple-Dime Bet
372 Arizona / 371 Toledo Over 58.0 Bodog
Analysis:
I wrote a blog post back in June where I declared that Arizona was the "Top OVER team in College Football this Season." I didn't take the OVER last week because I wanted to sit back and watch the Wildcats offense and see what happened. Well, what happened was 521 yards and 70 points.



Last year Sonny Dykes brought the Texas Tech-spread offense to Tucson. After a few early bumps in the road, the Wildcats were an offensive machine toward the end of the season. In winning three of their final four games, Arizona scored 48, 34 and 34 points respectively. They also topped forty points two other times last season. Now add in the 70-point outburst against Idaho last week and you are witnessing one of the most explosive offenses in CFB.



The thing I love about this offense is its continuity. The Cats return 10 starters on the offensive side of the ball, including QB Willie Tuitama, so virtually every player on the field is in their second year in Dykes' system. Arizona is loaded with quality receivers to team with Tuitama. Last week Tuitama was 17-of-21 for 169 yards and three scores in just over a half of work.



Don't be fooled by Arizona pitching a shutout last week either. Idaho is God-awful. This actually helps us because the young Wildcats defense has yet to be tested and it keeps the line down. Arizona is replacing its entire defensive line, both starting corners and two starting linebackers from a year ago. They have no proven pass rushers, which means the new corners will be tested early and often by Toledo.



Granted, this is the Rockets first game of the season but I believe they will have one of the top offenses in the country themselves this year. Led by quarterback Aaron Opelt, Toledo is going to put up a ton of points this season. Toledo has five starters returning on defense but they are returning to a unit that gave up almost 40 points a game in 2007. The Rockets ranked near the bottom in both rush and total defense last year. Toledo's defense is going to have a heck of a time slowing down Arizona's high-flying offense this week.



When taking an OVER, you need both teams to score. That should be no problem at all here. I expect this game to go well over 80 points and with the early line sitting at 58, I'm not only going to hit this hard, I'm making it my CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH! ***3 UNIT PLAY***


Sat, 09/06/08 - 3:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
328 Oklahoma -21.0 (-120) BetUS vs 327 Cincinnati

Analysis: I think the Sooners are the best team in the country and they name their score in this game. A lot of people will take the points with Cincy because they have been a covering machine of late. However, the single biggest thing I learned from Bill Belichick when I worked for the Patriots is that every game is its own entity. No matter what trends or numbers say, the team that plays the best will win on Saturday. I think in this matchup, the Sonners are five touchdowns better than the Bearcats. I know it was just Chattanooga but the Sooners beat them in one of the most lopsided games I've ever seen. OU had a 27-1 edge in first downs and outgained Chattanooga in total yards 487-36! So you would think Bob Stoops would have been happy with such a dominant performance. Well, think again. Leading 50-2 at the half, Stoops put his starters back in because he said they needed to be sharp for this game. Bearcats quarterback Dustin Grutza had a strong outing last week but I've never been impressed with him. I expect the Sooners to control this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball by getting after Grutza on defense and wearing down a smallish Cincinnati front on offense. This game has blowout written all over it. The Sooners make a statement Saturday and win big.. ***2 UNIT PLAY***
Sat, 09/06/08 - 4:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
315 West Virginia -7.0 (-115) Sportsbetting.com vs 316 East Carolina
Analysis: East Carolina is a nice story but there's just too much line value for me to pass up here. I asked a guy out in Vegas what the line would be in this game if ECU didn't block that punt and he said around 15 or16 points. So we are getting nine points in value because of one blocked punt? Again, I can't pass that up. First of all, Virginia Tech sucks. They are so bad this year that Frank Beamer was going to redshirt Tyrod Taylor for the future. Why? Because the Hokies are young and will be loaded the next couple of years. But even as bad as the Hokies are this year, they still should have beaten ECU last week. Now the Pirates are taking on a Top 5 team and only getting a TD. Yet people like ECU. Why? West Virginia is far superior in every way to Va Tech and Pat White will have no trouble moving the ball on offense. Plus, all the pressure is on ECU now. They are at home coming off a huge win and people actually expect them to beat WV. I'm not one of those people. I like the Mountaineers by 17 points in this game and like I said, this line is too good for us not to throw a unit on it. I bought it down to 7 just to be safe and I would advise you to do the same. ***1 UNIT PLAY***


Sat, 09/06/08 - 10:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
373 Stanford 14.0 (-110) BetUS vs 374 Arizona St.

Analysis: I'm playing this game for 1 Unit because it came from my Pac 10 Insider. This is an old friend of mine who covers Pac 10 sports for a living. He gives me 15-20 plays a year in football and usually hits around 65 percent. Not many people know Pac 10 football better than this guy. He sent me a text message tonight that said, "Take Stanford plus the points. Could win outright." I play all of his games for 1 unit unless he tells me otherwise. Like I said, his information has been very strong over the years and if he likes Stanford to possibly win this game, the 14 points should be more than enough. He's not always right but he's right a lot more times than he's wrong and he really has a knack for hitting Pac 10 underdogs. ***1 UNIT Play***

[timbob]

Northcoast

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 arizona st, oklahoma
3 calf, ecar, wash

small
4 ul monroe
3.5 syarcuse
3 pitt
2 kent, temple

[timbob]

Cajun-Sports

CFB Executive Report

2 STAR SELECTION

IOWA -26½ over Florida International

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: IOWA 41 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 7


3 STAR SELECTION

AUBURN -17 ½ over Southern Mississippi

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 37 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 10


2 STAR SELECTION

WASHINGTON STATE +14 over California

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WASHINGTON STATE 23 CALIFORNIA 21


4 STAR SELECTION

Rice +3 over MEMPHIS

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RICE 36 MEMPHIS 31


5 STAR SELECTION

NEVADA +10 over Texas Tech

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS TECH 37 NEVADA 35

[timbob]

Beat Your Bookie

100-Milk.
50- Tampa Bay

100- BYU
50- Cinn.
50-S.Fla.


BOOKIE PAYS YOU:
======================================== ==================

After Navy and Ball State fold in the second half costing us what looked to be
a lock at halftime with the over. We will rebound today, and we WILL do so big!
Get on the OVER in the Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan matchup. There's
no such thing as a guarantee when you're gambling... BUT, this looks about as
close to a guarantee as I've seen in a while. This one is going over the posted
56pts. for several reasons... 1) Michigan State is favored by 24pts.... That's a
clear sign that they will put up huge numbers, simply because they'll have to just
to cover the spread. 2) Michigan State has covered the over in 4 straight home
games, and 5 of 6 overall. 3) Eastern Michigan has covered the over in their
last 4 overall. Bottom Line... Eastern Michigan always finds a way to score
plenty of points and they'll do so today. While Michigan State will have to
counter that with points by the truckload in order to cover the spread. Both
teams+lots of points= OVER 56pts. Thanks.

[timbob]

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NCAA REVENGE Football Power Play is:

10* Take Wyoming (-3) over Air Force (NCAA Power Play)
3:30 PM EST (Guaranteed NCAA REVENGE game of the Year)

Wyoming
• 7-1 SU as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons
• 4-1 SU when playing in the 1st 2 weeks of the season
• 5-0 SU in home games when the total posted is 42 points or less
• Lost to Air Force 20-12 last season (REVENGE)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5* Take Michigan (-14) over Miami-OH (Bonus Play)
12:00 PM EST

Miami-OH
• 1-7 ATS coming off an OVER total the last 3 years
• 0-3 SU & ATS when the total posted is 42 points or less
• 1-11 SU as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


5* Take West Virginia (-7.5) over East Carolina (Bonus Play)
4:30 PM EST

West Virginia
• 13-0 SU when playing in non-conference games
• 9-0 SU when playing in the 1st month of the season
• 7-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

[timbob]

Frank Rosenthal

Mlb
901 Philly+120 Sb
903 Dbacks+110 Sb
Under 7.5 Sb+
904 Padres+140 Sb
Under 7.5 Sb+
912 Cards-140 Sb+
926 Kc-120 Sb+

College Football Saturday
305 Ea Mich Under 57sb
306 Mich St-20.5 Sb
312 Duke+7 Sb+
Under 43.5 Sb+
314 Bc-6.5 Sb
315 West Va-7 Sb+
328 Ok-21 Sb
334 Fl-22 Sb+
Under 51.5 Sb+
341 Af+3 Sb
346 Nd-21 Sb
363 Uconn-6.5 Sb
373 Stanford+14.5 Sb
381 Tulsa-21 Sb

[timbob]

CHARLIE SPORTS

500 Mich
30 S Jose
20 Mich St
20 Wisc
10 Auburn
10 Ohio U


Big @L

At 12 Noon (time change), on Saturday, on ESPN-U television, our selection is on the Temple Owls plus the points over Connecticut.

At 5 pm (televised on the Versus Network), our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos over Texas A&M.

At 7:30 pm, on ESPN-U television, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers plus the points over Bowling Green, as we will fade the Falcons off last week's upset win, and look for Minnesota to avenge its 32-31 home loss to BGSU last season.

At 3:55pm our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total.

[timbob]

MIGHTY QUINN


Mighty is 0-2 in foots this week
Wash and s carolina both losers

He's 8~12 for the year
8~11 in college
0~1 in nfl

heres his selections


Florida -21 FOR HIS BEST BET


Akron...
Michigan..
West Virg..
Auburn..
Georgia..
Penn St...
NDame..
New Mex...
Cali...
Temple

[timbob]

Sports Advisors

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Georgia Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Boston College (1-0 SU and ATS)

Boston College begins its quest to defend its Atlantic Division title when it hosts Georgia Tech in the first ACC game of the season.

Both teams prepped for this contest with easy victories last week. Boston College rushed for 230 yards en route to blanking Kent State 21-0 as a 10-point road favorite, while Georgia Tech easily disposed of I-AA foe Jacksonville State 41-14 in a non-lined game. The Yellow Jackets had 349 rushing yards, but did commit two turnovers.

The Eagles have struggled in ACC contests of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five and they’ve struggled getting the cash in front of the home fans, going 0-4 ATS in the last four. On the plus side, Boston College is on ATS runs of 6-2 in September games and 15-7 against teams with a winning record.

The ‘Jackets are on ATS slides of 1-4 overall dating back to last season, 0-5-1 after a straight-up win and 1-4 against a team with a winning mark. But in the role of underdog, Georgia Tech is 6-2-1 ATS over the last two campaigns.

Boston College took last year’s battle, getting a 24-10 win as a 6½-point road ‘dog. The underdog has cashed in four of the last five between these two dating back to 1989, and the road team has won four straight outright.

Georgia Tech has stayed under in 14 of its last 21 September kickoffs, but the Yellowjackets have topped the total in their last four overall. Boston College has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 home games and five of its last seven in September. But otherwise for the Eagles, the under is on streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in ACC battles.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH


(8) West Virginia (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at East Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS)

A week after a thrilling upset victory over Virginia Tech, East Carolina will try to shock yet another Top 25 foe when it hosts West Virginia in a non-conference clash.

The Pirates returned a blocked punt for a game-clinching touchdown in the waning minutes against Virginia Tech a week ago, winning 27-22 as a 9½-point home underdog. East Carolina held a massive edge in total offensive, piling up with 369 yards to Va-Tech’s 243.

West Virginia fattened up on Villanova in its opener, rolling 48-21 in a non-lined game. The Mountaineers, always among the nation’s leaders in rushing, finished with just 149 yards on the ground, but passed for 205, while the defense forced three turnovers.

The Pirates have been a moneymaking machine in recent seasons, going 21-8 ATS dating back to the 2005 campaign, including 18-6 ATS as a ‘dog. The Pirates are on additional ATS streaks of 11-3 in September, 4-1 at home, 3-0 against teams with a winning record and 10-4 in non-conference matchups. However, against Big East opposition, East Carolina is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10.

West Virginia has won eight of its last nine games dating back to last September and the Mountaineers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road outings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on grass. They’ve also scored at least 28 points in eight of their last nine (4-4 ATS).

West Virginia has dominated this annual rivalry game, winning nine of the last 10 and cashing five of the last seven, including last year’s 48-7 blowout victory as a 24-point home chalk. The straight-up winner is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight.

For the Pirates, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 at home, 4-0 when they face a winning team and 5-1-1 after a spread-cover. For West Virginia, the over is 9-4 in its last 13 non-conference games, but the under is 7-2 in its last nine after a straight-up victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA


Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

After an easy victory in Week 1, Cincinnati takes a big step up in class when it visits Norman, Okla., to battle the fourth-ranked Sooners.

The Bearcats took it to Division I-AA Eastern Kentucky in a 47-17 opening-week victory, finishing with a 557-195 advantage in total offense, including 209-48 on the ground.

Oklahoma feasted on its own cupcake a week ago, opening up a 50-0 halftime lead en route to a 57-2 home victory over Tennessee-Chattanooga. QB Sam Bradford was sharp, completing 17 of 22 passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns in limited action for the Sooners, who ended with a ridiculous 487-36 edge in total offense.

The Bearcats are on positive ATS streaks of 15-5-2 overall, 8-2-1 as an underdog (4-0 last year), 5-1 on the highway, 6-0 in September, 11-2 on grass, 5-1 versus winning teams and 23-8-1 on the road against winning teams.

The Sooners are on ATS runs of 6-1 in September, 9-4 at home and 4-1 in non-conference matchups. On the negative side, Oklahoma is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 overall and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a straight-up win.

Cincinnati is on under runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 following a straight-up victory. Conversely, Oklahoma has topped the total in eight of nine non-conference games, six of nine at home and six of eight in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Miami (Fla.) (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (5) Florida (1-0 SU and ATS)

Tim Tebow and the Gators renew their in-state rivalry with Miami (Fla.), and they do so as a massive favorite to upend the Hurricanes at The Swamp in Gainesville.

Tebow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was rather pedestrian in his first game as a junior, completing 9 of 14 passes for 137 yards and one TD while adding 37 rushing yards against Hawaii. But it didn’t matter as Florida crushed the Warriors 56-10, easily covering as a 34½-point home favorite.

The Hurricanes took an even easier route to their first victory of 2008, blasting Charleston Southern 52-7 in a non-lined game. Miami had 224 rushing yards, 192 passing yards and held Charleston Southern to just 126 total yards.

Miami is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall and on further negative ATS streaks of 5-11 against winning teams, 3-7 on the highway, 3-9 in September and 3-8 in non-conference games. Additionally, the ‘Canes went just 4-8 ATS last year and are now 12-24 ATS since 2005, including 5-10 ATS on the road in that span and 0-5 ATS in non-conference roadies.

Urban Meyer’s Gators went 6-1 ATS as home favorites last season and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference foes. Florida is also on ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 8-2 against winning teams and 5-1 on grass, but the Gators are just 2-5 in their last seven September kickoffs.

These two squads haven’t met since 2004, but Miami has been dominant in this series, winning six straight dating back to 1986, including a 27-10 win back in 2004, easily getting the cash as a four-point home favorite. Miami is 5-1 ATS against the Gators since 1986, and the straight-up winner is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

For Miami, the under is on streaks of 40-18 overall, 20-6 in non-conference games, 12-3 in September and 17-6 on grass. Florida has stayed under the total in 10 of its last 14 September games, but otherwise the over for the Gators is on streaks of 8-1 overall, 16-5 on grass, 5-1 at home and 5-1 in non-conference games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA


(12) Texas Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Nevada (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

The scoreboard figures to be working overtime in Reno tonight, as Texas Tech visits Nevada in a battle between two high-powered offenses.

Texas Tech blew out I-AA Eastern Washington 49-24 in a non-lined home game last week, with star QB Graham Harrell playing the entire game and finishing 43-for-58 for 536 passing yards, two TDs and one INT.

Normally a passing team, the Wolf Pack put their running game on display against I-AA Grambling last Saturday, rushing for 426 yards in a 49-13 non-lined home win. Nevada’s defense also stepped up, allowing Grambling just 5 net rushing yards on 40 carries.

The Red Raiders have been a solid play as double-digit chalk since 2003, going 14-7 ATS, including 5-2 ATS as double-digit road favorites. Otherwise Texas Tech is on ATS slides of 5-12 following a straight-up win, 2-5 in non-conference games, 1-4 on the road and 2-6 against winning teams.

The Wolfpack has been tough in front of the home fans, going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 in Reno. They are also on ATS surges of 6-2 in non-conference games and 5-1 in September.

For Texas Tech, the over is on streaks of 10-3 following a straight-up win, 5-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 in September. On the flip side, Nevada is on a host of under streaks, including 4-0 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-2 following a straight-up win and 4-1 at home against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH


(15) BYU (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Washington (0-1 SU and ATS)

Washington tries to get over the sting of an ugly season-opening loss at Oregon when it welcomes 15th-ranked BYU to Seattle for a non-conference tussle.

The Huskies rallied from an early 14-0 hole against the Ducks on Saturday and closed to within 14-10 at halftime. After the break, though, Washington got steamrolled, losing 44-10 as a 13½-point road underdog, the team’s third straight loss (1-2 ATS) and its 10th in the last 12 games (4-8 ATS). The Huskies gave up 256 rushing yards and 240 passing yards while producing just 242 total yards on their end.

BYU, which is being billed as a possible BCS Bowl party-crasher, got off to a fine start last week, albeit against I-AA Northern Iowa, rolling 41-17 in a non-lined game, extending the nation’s longest winning streak to 11 in a row (6-4 ATS in lined games). QB Max Hall (34-for-41, 485 yards, two TDs, no INTs) was outstanding versus Northern Iowa, but the Cougars got outgained on the ground 149-77 and committed four second-half turnovers.

BYU is 22-11-1 ATS in its last 33 games going back to the middle of the 2005 season. Additionally, the Cougars are on spread-covering tears of 14-7 as a favorite since 2006, 7-3 as a road chalk since 2005, 7-2 against losing teams and 11-5 on the road.

Washington has been a miserable bet at home the last three-plus seasons, going 11-27-2 ATS. However, the Huskies have cashed in four of their last five non-league outings.

These teams met for four straight seasons from 1996-99, with Washington going 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS). The home team is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six battles since 1985.

The over is 4-0 in Washington’s last four at home, but the under is 5-2 in BYU’s last seven lined games overall and 5-0 in its last five against the Pac-10.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BYU


Ole Miss (1-0 SU and ATS) at (20) Wake Forest (1-0 SU and ATS)

Having kicked off the Houston Nutt era in impressive fashion, Ole Miss now heads out on the road for a tough assignment against Wake Forest.

The Rebels were about as balanced offensively as you could possibly be last week against Memphis, rushing for 216 yards and passing for 222 en route to a 41-24 victory as a 7½-point chalk. However, the defense surrendered 453 yards (188 rushing), but did force two turnovers. Last year, Ole Miss started the season with a win over Memphis, but then lost nine of its final 11 games.

Wake Forest took the field as a preseason Top 25 squad for the first time in school history on Aug. 28 and lived up to its ranking, blitzing Baylor 41-13 as an 11½-point road favorite. Like Ole Miss, the Demon Deacons had a balanced attack (156 rushing yards, 220 passing yards), while the defense forced five turnovers.

Wake Forest has now won and covered four in a row, and since starting out 2007 with consecutive losses, Jim Grobe’s squad is 10-2 SU in its last 12. Also, in addition to cashing in four straight, the Deacons are on ATS rolls of 8-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 13-3 against winning teams.

Going back to the end of last season, the Rebels have covered the number in four straight lined games and six of the last seven. During this stretch, they’re 3-0 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a ‘dog. On the downside, Ole Miss is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 September contests and 3-9 in its last 12 non-conference games.

The schools last faced each other in 2006 in Oxford, Miss., with the Demon Deacons cruising to a 27-3 victory as a two-point road underdog.

The under is on streaks of 7-2 for Ole Miss in September, 20-8 for Ole Miss on the road, 7-2 for Wake Forest in September, 9-3 for Wake at home and 15-5-1 for Wake in non-conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and UNDER


Stanford (1-0 SU and ATS) at (15) Arizona State (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

Stanford, which won just three conference games a season ago, looks to start off 2008 with consecutive Pac-10 victories when it travels to Tempe, Ariz., for what figures to be a daunting matchup against the Sun Devils.

The Cardinal kicked off the second year of the Jim Harbaugh era with an impressive 36-28 home win over Oregon State as a three-point underdog. Coupled with last year’s season-ending 20-13 upset of Cal, Stanford has won consecutive games for the first time since October 2005, a stretch of 30 contests.

Against Oregon State, the Cardinal did the bulk of their damage on the ground (210 rushing yards), but the defense allowed a whopping 404 passing yards. They prevailed in large part by winning the turnover battle (3-0).

Arizona State easily dispatched of Northern Arizona 30-13 in a non-lined Week 1 contest. Senior QB Rudi Carpenter was in midseason form, going 22-for-38 for 388 yards and a touchdown, but the Devils got outgained on the ground (139-94).

The Sun Devils have blasted Stanford the last two seasons, winning 38-3 as a 23½-point home favorite in 2006 and 41-3 as a 15-point road chalk last year. Previously, the Cardinal had been on a 7-1 run in this rivalry. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings.

Despite last week’s win, Stanford remains mired in ATS funks of 6-14 in conference play, 1-9 in September and 8-13 as an underdog. Conversely, ASU is on a 20-8-1 ATS roll in September and a 10-1 ATS spurt as a double-digit favorite, but Dennis Erickson’s squad ended 2007 with five straight non-covers.

For Stanford, the under is on runs of 45-17-1 overall, 37-14-1 in Pac-10 play and 23-6-1 on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona State sports under streaks of 12-4 overall in lined games and 4-1 in Pac-10 play. Also, the last two series meetings have stayed low after the previous five had flown over the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and UNDER


Cal (1-0 SU and ATS) at Washington State (0-1 SU and ATS)

Cal will try to build on last week’s hard-fought win over Michigan State when it opens Pac-10 play against Washington State.

The Bears got caught up in a back-and-forth shootout with the Spartans last Saturday, but they got two touchdowns a little more than a minute apart in the fourth quarter and prevailed 38-31 as a five-point home favorite. Cal, which snapped an 0-7 ATS regular-season losing skid with the win and cover, rolled up 467 total yards and outrushed Michigan State, 226-81.

Washington State struggled in coach Paul Wulff’s debut, producing just 202 total yards in a 39-13 loss to Oklahoma State as a seven-point underdog on a neutral field in Seattle. The Cougars have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games, but they’re just 3-6 SU in their last nine efforts, giving up an average of 42 points per game in the last three.

Cal has won three straight meetings against Washington State, including last year’s narrow 20-17 home victory. However, the Cougars cashed easily as a 15½-point ‘dog in that one, and they’re 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes since 1997. Also, the visitor has covered in four straight in this rivalry going back to 2002.

Although they’ve followed up an 0-7 ATS slide with back-to-back spread-covers (including last year’s bowl game), the Bears are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games (0-4 ATS last four), including 0-4 ATS as a road favorite last year. Additionally, they’re 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Pac-10 games.

Wazzu is on an 8-3 ATS roll as a home ‘dog and a 4-1 ATS spurt in Pac-10 play.

The under is 5-2-1 in Washington State’s last seven overall, 5-1 in its last six against winning teams, 8-1-1 in Cal’s last 10 road games and 5-1 in Cal’s last six league affairs.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON STATE and UNDER

[timbob]

Jeff Benton

50 DIME: UTAH
15 DIME: FLORIDA
10 DIME: BUFFALO


Utah

Under most circumstances, I would be going AGAINST Utah this week, as this would ordinarily be a prime letdown for the Utes after last Saturday’s big win over Michigan in the Big House. Not the case this week, not with UNLV coming to Salt Lake City. Why? Because last year Utah suffered its worst beatdown of the season – it’s worst in probably a decade – in Las Vegas, when the pathetic Rebels (who only won two games all year) shocked the Utes 27-0 as a seven-point home underdog.

As if the indignity of committing four turnovers and getting shutout for the first time since 1993 – by one of the worst programs in Division I-A – wasn’t bad enough, Utah’s manhood was challenged by UNLV coach Mike Sanford in the days after the game. Sanford, who was Utah’s offensive coordinator before taking over the Rebels, said to local media in Las Vegas that when he reviewed the game tape, “there’s no doubt in my mind” that the Utes were afraid to tackle UNLV’s 240-pound running back Frank “The Tank” Summers, who rushed for 190 yards on 29 carries in the victory. And Summers dittoed those comments.

Not surprisingly, Sanford has spent a good portion of this week claiming his comments were taken out of context. True or not, you know that Utes coach Kyle Whittingham – who was Utah’s D-coordinator when Sanford was the O-coordinator – has reminded his players of Sanford’s slight. Not that the players need much motivation after being on the receiving end of a 27-0 bitch-slap. And yes, most of the key players on this year’s Utes team were involved in that massacre – and Summers is back, too.

Now, I know this is a huge impost to lay, but believe me, in addition to motivation, Utah’s got the means to cover the number. As mentioned, they have a ton of talent back, and the defense played out of its mind at Michigan last week, holding the Wolverines to 203 total yards, including 36 rushing yards on 25 carries. And although Utah’s running game looked stuck in the mud, QB Brian Johnson was terrific (21 of 33, 305 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Besides, Michigan’s defense is miles better – bigger, stronger, faster – than UNLV’s, so expect much better results from the running game.

Finally, just look at where these programs are right now. After last week’s completely uninspiring 27-17 home win over god-awful Utah State as a 12½-point favorite, UNLV is now 7-29 in three-plus seasons under Sanford. In between last year’s upset of Utah and last week’s win over Utah State, UNLV lost eight straight games, going 2-6 ATS. In fact, after last week’s non-cover vs. Utah State, the Rebels enter this one on a five-game ATS slide, going 0-3 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog in the process. Meanwhile, Utah cracked the Top 25 this week and the team is 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS since the middle of the 2006 season – a streak that started with a 45-23 home rout of UNLV in October 2006 – including 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS since losing to UNLV last year.

Furthermore, the Utes are 6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite during this 19-game stretch and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at home, while the Rebels are mired in a 3-14 ATS slump on the road. Also, prior to last year’s loss to the Rebels, Utah had won 11 straight games in this rivalry dating to 1979, including the last two at home by a combined score of 108-51! And trust me, in none of those 11 wins were the Utes as motivated to kick some ass as they’re going to be tonight!

Lay the lumber, folks … this one’s gonna get UGLY!


Florida

First off, you saw how the SEC bitch-slapped the ACC last week, right? Alabama – a middle-of-the-road SEC team – clobbered Clemson, which entered the season as the favorite to win the ACC. And that was after South Carolina blanked North Carolina State 34-0. Those weren’t the only ACC schools to get punked in Week 1, either. Virginia (playing at home!) lost 52-7 to USC, while Virginia Tech fell to Conference USA’s East Carolina 27-22 as a double-digit favorite. Even Maryland struggled to beat I-AA Delaware at home, prevailing only 14-7.

Well, the ACC better get ready for another beatdown, as Miami doesn’t stand a chance of competing with against fifth-ranked Florida, which went through the motions against Hawaii last week … and still won 56-10 as a 34½-point chalk. And when I say “went through the motions,” QB Tim Tebow had just 174 total yards and one touchdown (passing) … and the Gators still rolled by six touchdowns!

Now, I’m sure Miami has more talent on its roster than Hawaii. But the Hurricanes also have a redshirt freshman at quarterback who has just one game under his belt (last week’s rout of Charleston Southern). Nothing like playing your first collegiate road game in the swamp … especially with only two returning offensive linemen in front of him … and especially when facing one of the top defenses in the land!

Bottom line: The last time Miami went on the road to face a top-tier team, it was exactly a year ago … and the Canes got spanked 51-13 at Oklahoma. And Oklahoma wasn’t an in-state rival like Florida, which just happens to be looking to snap a six-game losing skid to Miami that dates to 1986! Think the Gators don’t want to end that drought by making a big statement today and claiming state supremacy? Just ask Florida State, which lost 41-14 to Tebow and Florida last season. Finally consider this: Miami is 12-24 ATS in its last 36 games, including 5-10 ATS on the road, and the Hurricanes have failed to cover in their last five non-conference road games. Meanwhile, Florida is now 7-1 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. LOVE the Gators tonight!


Buffalo

So let me get this straight: Pittsburgh went off as a two-touchdown home favorite last week against Bowling Green, jumped out to a quick two-touchdown lead, and lost outright 27-17, committing four turnovers in the process … and now the Panthers are laying double digits again? Against another Mid-American Conference opponent, one that’s improving and completely under-the-radar? One that throttled UTEP 42-17 as a three-point home favorite last week?

Uh, I don’t get it. Of course, I didn’t get all the preseason hype surrounding Pitt to begin with. Yeah, they stunned West Virginia in the annual Backyard Brawl season finale last year. But that’s a HUGE rivalry game. Also, all the pressure was on West Virginia in that game, as the Mountaineers needed a win to get a berth in the BCS Championship Game. So instead of focusing on one upset victory, let’s instead focus on the fact that Pitt is 16-20 since Dave Wannstedt took over as coach without a single winning season in three years!

As for Buffalo, this team is on the come, going from 2-10 in 2006 to 5-7 last year. And the Bulls look particularly improved on defense; after yielding 28 points and more than 400 yards per game last year, they came out of the gate and limited UTEP to just 266 yards (67 rushing) and 16 first downs. Also, QB Drew Willy, who threw four TD passes last week, has thrown 251 passes without an interception (the longest such steak in the country). Throw in the fact that Buffalo is on a 21-12-1 ATS roll, including 9-5 ATS as a ‘dog since 2006, while the Panthers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games, including 1-7 ATS as a favorite, and I’ll gladly take the points here.
__________________

[timbob]

Docs Enterprises

(5*)Temple
(4*)Wake Forest
(4*)Penn State
(4*)Tulsa
(4*)East Carolina
(3*)Syracuse

[Mr. IWS]

DAVE M@LINSKY

6* Huston U
4* Pittsburgh
4* Mississippi
4* Michigan State Under
4* Notre Dame Over
4* South Florida Under

[Mr. IWS]

TEDDY JUNE.


10* TEMPLE
10* AZ STATE
10* FlORIDA

[Mr. IWS]

INDIANCOWBOY

Let's keep the good Saturday's rolling:

Temple +6.5 (POD)

I had this game as an Upset alert from the early part of this week in part because Temple's great performance in thier first game by going on the road to do so well as this team is returning a wealth of starters. Of course, the line opened up at a little over a touchdown, and now has steadily gone down to 6.5 as Temple is the home dog. Connecticut did not play much of a competition in their first game either, and the total is a striking low 38. This could be in part due to the incliment weather that my buddy Dallas let me know of. But, usually, with an active dog, the game goes over as that is a principle that I Have been writing about for the past 4 years in depth. Rememeber, Connecticut did beat Hofstra 35-3 in their last ballgame, but also note that Tyler Lorenzen through for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in the last ballgame - as it was the Connecticut running game that scored the points (another reason why the line is low as Connecticut likes ball control and to run). Temple though just destroyed Army and lost to this tema by just 4 last year and this is a game they can get revenge, at home and the have significantly better quarterback play and offense here.

Akron +4.5

I think it's been a long time since Syracuse has been favored in a ball game, period. It actually amuses me that they are actually giving up points to a team. Note that roughly 60% of the public still favors Syracuse coming into this game, these 2 teams have not played each other at all in recent memory, in fact, I don't know if they have ever locked horns in their football history, Syracuse comes off a 20 point loss on the road at Northwestern which of course, they failed to cover, Akron comes off a 21 point loss on the road at Wisconsin. Note, that this Akron team is sound, they have a great QB in Chris Jacquemain who threw for 2 touchdowns and 0 picks at Wisconsin, a top 15 team in the nation, and actually completed more than 60% of his passes while Andrew Robinson did not throw a TD and threw a pick against Northwestern. In fact, he barely passed for over a 100 yards. Syracuse actually returns more players with 7 on offense (similar to Akron) but 6 on defense while Akron only returns 4. Of course, this is no good if your returning starters are not that good - lol. Having said this, despite the total going under since opening, I simply can't all see all that much defense here as both teams should have some success scoring.

Kent +7

I know, this is not a very sexy game compared to the other game on the board, having said that, note that Kent State lost to Boston College earlier this year 0-21 and this is a proud team that is returning 14 of its 22 starters from last year, note that Iowa State is returning 11 of its 22 starters from last year, roughly half the team. The reason why this game appealed to me is the fact that Kent State is 0-1 already and considering that this team had high expectations for this season, it would take a lot for this fairly veteran group to start the season 0-2. Having said that, Iowa State has plenty of revenge from last year's season opener when they won on the road by 9. The total has been steadily moving down as well, look for Kent State to play well today as this is a more vet team that comes off a loss and Iowa State comes off a big victory, albeit a Division II school, but still ranked in the top 20 in division schools, remember this is the same SDSU that beat Minnesotta recently - I wouldnt' be surprised to see Kent State either win outright as they have a great QB in Julian while Iowa State's QB job is a bit more up in there, I think Kent State likely will be in better sync today, wouldn't be surprised if they lose by a field goal either but still manage to cover