Mr. IWS
09-08-2008, 11:36 AM
Denver (-3.0) 23 OAKLAND 19
07:15 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-08
The Broncos out-gained their opponents 5.8 yards per play to 5.5 yppl and were +1 in turnover margin, yet somehow were out-scored by 5.6 points per game. With a good offense and a defense that should be improved the Broncos should go from a disappointing 7-9 to 9-7 or 10-6 this season. Quarterback Jay Cutler blossomed in his first full season as the starting quarterback, averaging 6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, and he should be at least as good this season once top target WR Brandon Marshall serves his one game suspension. The Broncos continued their tradition of finding running backs to fit their zone blocking scheme, as Selvin Young ran for 729 yards at 5.2 ypr while backing up a less effective Travis Henry (4.1 ypr), who is no longer with the team. Young will get the bulk of the carries this season and, while he probably won’t average 5.2 ypr again, he should have a very good season. The Broncos should once again average about 5.8 yppl on offense, which ranks them in the top 10 in the league.
While the offense should remain good, the defense is likely to go from poor to slightly better than average this season now that ineffective safeties John Lynch and Nick Ferguson are off the team. Lynch was a great player for many years, but his level of play dropped off severely last season against the pass (although his run defense was still good). Ferguson was replaced in the starting lineup in week 10 by Hamza Abdullah, who played exceptionally well as a starter and helped revive the Broncos’ pass defense. Denver allowed 7.4 yards per pass play in their first 8 games with Ferguson at strong safety (against teams that would average 6.5 yppp against an average team), but the Broncos yielded just 5.5 yppp in their final 8 games (to teams that would average 5.7 yppp) in their final 8 games with Abdullah starting. Abdullah is a very fast safety and his presence in the lineup allowed cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly to play more bump and run coverage rather than wasting their good man-to-man skills in zone defenses. I expect the Broncos to continue to defend the pass well with Abdullah at free safety. The run defense also got a little better over the second half of the season, but the Broncos were still 0.3 ypr worse than average against the run. That number should improve with Boss Bailey being signed to take the place of the ineffective Ian Gold at linebacker and having D.J. Williams move to the outside should also help the defense since he wasn’t big enough to defend the run well from the middle linebacker spot. Denver has the pieces to be a slightly better than average defense this season.
The Broncos had an off year in special teams, but I think they’ll be pretty good in that area this season with improved punting and much better kickoffs with Matt Prater booming the ball into the endzone. Prater also will be the field goal kicker, which is a negative, but his overall value should be positive. Denver is a better than average team that should be in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race.
The Raiders were just 4-12 last season and I don’t see too much improvement from them this season. Oakland had plenty of needs in the draft and running back was certainly not one of them with Justin Fargas coming off a good season and good depth behind him. I’m sure Darrin McFadden is going to be a great player, but giving the ball to McFadden instead of giving it to Fargas isn’t going to help the team as much as a run-stuffing defensive tackle or a good receiver would have. The Raiders certainly look like a very good running team, but quarterback JaMarcus Russell doesn’t appear ready to have success through the air, especially given his sorry receiving corps. Russell averaged only 4.6 yards per pass play on 72 pass plays last season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and he looked horrible in the preseason – completing only 52% of his passes and averaging a pathetic 3.2 yards on 56 pass plays. Ronald Curry is a pretty reliable receiver, but Jevon Walker is well past his prime and signing him to a free agent deal looks like a waste of money. Walker averaged only 5.7 yards per pass thrown to him last season (horrible for a wide receiver) despite having a better than average quarterback in Denver. Walker spent most of the preseason simply going through the motions and dropping passes before finally catching a few in the 3rd preseason game. That 3rd preseason game is the one in which teams generally play their starters for at least the first half and the Raiders were shutout in that game 0-24 by Arizona – which could be an omen of things to come this season. I expect the Raiders to have the worst pass attack in the NFL this season and their good running will not overcome that deficiency.
Oakland looks a lot like the 2006 version, which featured a horrible offense and a pretty good defense. The Raiders were bad defensively last season, allowing 5.9 yards per play to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The run defense was particularly bad, as Oakland gave up 5.0 ypr, but it should be improved this season with strong safety Gibril Wilson being brought in via free agency. Wilson was great in run support for the Giants last season and is a major upgrade over Michael Huff, who is being moved to his more natural free safety position. Huff’s move to free safety will help the pass defense, as he’ll be much better than Stuart Schweigert was after Schweighert gave up 12.0 yards per pass thrown to his man. Wilson is also pretty good in pass defense and bringing in DeAngelo Hall from Atlanta gives the Raiders a solid #2 cornerback to team with Nnamdi Asomugha, who is among the top 3 or 4 cornerbacks in the NFL. Asomugha only allowed 5.8 yards per pass attempted against him, which ranked 4th among cornerbacks last season, but teams simply threw away from his side of the field. With Hall (7.2 ypa allowed) taking over for Fabian Washington, who allowed 9.6 ypa, opposing teams won’t simply be able to throw away from Asomugha. The Raiders now have one of the NFL’s best secondaries and I expect their pass defense to go from bad to solidly better than average this season. The run defense will remain poor, but it should be much better than last season.
I rate the Raiders as the 3rd worst team in the NFL starting the season, but they could move up significantly if Russell can somehow find a way to move the ball through the air at a respectable rate.
My ratings favor Denver by 4 points in this game, so I’ll lean slightly with the Broncos at -3 or less.
GREEN BAY (-2.0) 21 Minnesota 19
04:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-08
There is a lot of excitement in Minnesota this summer, as fans anticipate what they believe will be a Vikings team that will make a run into the playoffs. Those fans are probably right, as the Vikes added All-Pro DE Jared Allen to an already star studded defensive line to make the Vikings defense amongst the best in the NFL. The Vikings have two of the league’s best defensive tackles in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams and teams have simply stopped trying to run the ball against them. Last season the Vikes allowed just 3.2 ypr and opponents only tried running the ball 35% of the time, which is well below the NFL average of 43% running plays. The pass defense was slightly worse than average, allowing 6.2 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team, and Minnesota’s defense overall was only 0.2 yards per play better than average since teams threw the ball so often against them. To discourage teams from throwing so often the Vikings traded for Allen, who registered 15.5 sacks for Kansas City last season in just 12 games. With opposing teams having to worry about the two Williams’ inside, Allen may see less double teaming and his sacks totals could be even better (especially if teams continue to average 43 pass plays per game against Minnesota. I actually don’t expect Allen’s sack rate to be as high as it was last season, but his sack total could be higher and his contribution to the pass defense should be about 0.4 yppp – which would make the Vikings a better than average while also leading to more interceptions.
Minnesota’s offense revolves around second year back Adrian Peterson, who averaged an incredible 5.6 ypr while backup Chester Taylor ran for 848 yards at 5.4 ypr. I don’t expect either to keep up those high averages, but the Vikings should still average about 5 yards per rush this season. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t asked to do much, but he posted pretty decent numbers for a first time starter, averaging 6.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB. Jackson should improve in his second full season as the starter and adding WR Bernard Berrian upgrades the receiving corps. Jackson needs to cut down on his interception rate, but it’s not a huge problem since the Vikings don’t throw the ball as much as most teams. Minnesota should once again be an above average offensive team, but I don’t think they’ll be quite as good as last year’s attack, which averaged 5.7 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl).
Minnesota was better than average in special teams last season, but they should probably regress towards the middle of the pack in that area this season. The Vikings were a better than average team last season and they’re likely to be even better in 2008 thanks to a defense that should be even better than last year’s fine unit.
The Packers start the post-Favre era with a huge Monday night clash with bitter rival Minnesota in Lambeau Field and it should be a fun game to watch. The Packers brass believes so much in Aaron Rodgers that they didn’t want Brett Favre back when he decided to un-retire, and Rodgers looked good last season against a very good Dallas defense (6.3 yards per pass play against a Dallas defense that would allow just 5.0 yppp at home to an average quarterback). Rodgers has also looked pretty sharp in the preseason, completing 68.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt on just 1 interception on 54 pass attempts. Rodgers does tend to hold onto the ball too long, which resulted in 3 sacks against Dallas last season and 7 sacks on 61 pass plays this summer, but I still rate the Packers’ pass attack as better than average heading into the season with plenty of upside potential. The Packers averaged 4.7 ypr after Ryan Grant became the main running back in week 4 of last season, but his numbers will probably regress a bit with opponents more focused on him this season. The Packers were a very good offensive team last season, averaging 6.4 yards per play from week 4 on against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. I’ll rate the Packers at just 0.4 yppl better than average offensively to start this season, but I’m being conservative in rating Rodgers so they could easily be better.
The Packers’ defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average last season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and I actually think that unit could get a bit worse this season with an aging secondary and the loss of DT Corey Williams, who registered 7 sacks in limited action after taking over for an injured Johnny Jolly. Jolly doesn’t figure to provide the pass rush that Williams did and the pass defense could suffer some. The Packers should still be a bit better than average. Green Bay’s special teams should also be better than average again this season and I expect the Packers to win anywhere between 9 games and 11 games depending on how well Rodgers plays.
My rating favor the Packers by 2 ½ points in this game, so I have no opinion on this game.
07:15 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-08
The Broncos out-gained their opponents 5.8 yards per play to 5.5 yppl and were +1 in turnover margin, yet somehow were out-scored by 5.6 points per game. With a good offense and a defense that should be improved the Broncos should go from a disappointing 7-9 to 9-7 or 10-6 this season. Quarterback Jay Cutler blossomed in his first full season as the starting quarterback, averaging 6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, and he should be at least as good this season once top target WR Brandon Marshall serves his one game suspension. The Broncos continued their tradition of finding running backs to fit their zone blocking scheme, as Selvin Young ran for 729 yards at 5.2 ypr while backing up a less effective Travis Henry (4.1 ypr), who is no longer with the team. Young will get the bulk of the carries this season and, while he probably won’t average 5.2 ypr again, he should have a very good season. The Broncos should once again average about 5.8 yppl on offense, which ranks them in the top 10 in the league.
While the offense should remain good, the defense is likely to go from poor to slightly better than average this season now that ineffective safeties John Lynch and Nick Ferguson are off the team. Lynch was a great player for many years, but his level of play dropped off severely last season against the pass (although his run defense was still good). Ferguson was replaced in the starting lineup in week 10 by Hamza Abdullah, who played exceptionally well as a starter and helped revive the Broncos’ pass defense. Denver allowed 7.4 yards per pass play in their first 8 games with Ferguson at strong safety (against teams that would average 6.5 yppp against an average team), but the Broncos yielded just 5.5 yppp in their final 8 games (to teams that would average 5.7 yppp) in their final 8 games with Abdullah starting. Abdullah is a very fast safety and his presence in the lineup allowed cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly to play more bump and run coverage rather than wasting their good man-to-man skills in zone defenses. I expect the Broncos to continue to defend the pass well with Abdullah at free safety. The run defense also got a little better over the second half of the season, but the Broncos were still 0.3 ypr worse than average against the run. That number should improve with Boss Bailey being signed to take the place of the ineffective Ian Gold at linebacker and having D.J. Williams move to the outside should also help the defense since he wasn’t big enough to defend the run well from the middle linebacker spot. Denver has the pieces to be a slightly better than average defense this season.
The Broncos had an off year in special teams, but I think they’ll be pretty good in that area this season with improved punting and much better kickoffs with Matt Prater booming the ball into the endzone. Prater also will be the field goal kicker, which is a negative, but his overall value should be positive. Denver is a better than average team that should be in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race.
The Raiders were just 4-12 last season and I don’t see too much improvement from them this season. Oakland had plenty of needs in the draft and running back was certainly not one of them with Justin Fargas coming off a good season and good depth behind him. I’m sure Darrin McFadden is going to be a great player, but giving the ball to McFadden instead of giving it to Fargas isn’t going to help the team as much as a run-stuffing defensive tackle or a good receiver would have. The Raiders certainly look like a very good running team, but quarterback JaMarcus Russell doesn’t appear ready to have success through the air, especially given his sorry receiving corps. Russell averaged only 4.6 yards per pass play on 72 pass plays last season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and he looked horrible in the preseason – completing only 52% of his passes and averaging a pathetic 3.2 yards on 56 pass plays. Ronald Curry is a pretty reliable receiver, but Jevon Walker is well past his prime and signing him to a free agent deal looks like a waste of money. Walker averaged only 5.7 yards per pass thrown to him last season (horrible for a wide receiver) despite having a better than average quarterback in Denver. Walker spent most of the preseason simply going through the motions and dropping passes before finally catching a few in the 3rd preseason game. That 3rd preseason game is the one in which teams generally play their starters for at least the first half and the Raiders were shutout in that game 0-24 by Arizona – which could be an omen of things to come this season. I expect the Raiders to have the worst pass attack in the NFL this season and their good running will not overcome that deficiency.
Oakland looks a lot like the 2006 version, which featured a horrible offense and a pretty good defense. The Raiders were bad defensively last season, allowing 5.9 yards per play to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The run defense was particularly bad, as Oakland gave up 5.0 ypr, but it should be improved this season with strong safety Gibril Wilson being brought in via free agency. Wilson was great in run support for the Giants last season and is a major upgrade over Michael Huff, who is being moved to his more natural free safety position. Huff’s move to free safety will help the pass defense, as he’ll be much better than Stuart Schweigert was after Schweighert gave up 12.0 yards per pass thrown to his man. Wilson is also pretty good in pass defense and bringing in DeAngelo Hall from Atlanta gives the Raiders a solid #2 cornerback to team with Nnamdi Asomugha, who is among the top 3 or 4 cornerbacks in the NFL. Asomugha only allowed 5.8 yards per pass attempted against him, which ranked 4th among cornerbacks last season, but teams simply threw away from his side of the field. With Hall (7.2 ypa allowed) taking over for Fabian Washington, who allowed 9.6 ypa, opposing teams won’t simply be able to throw away from Asomugha. The Raiders now have one of the NFL’s best secondaries and I expect their pass defense to go from bad to solidly better than average this season. The run defense will remain poor, but it should be much better than last season.
I rate the Raiders as the 3rd worst team in the NFL starting the season, but they could move up significantly if Russell can somehow find a way to move the ball through the air at a respectable rate.
My ratings favor Denver by 4 points in this game, so I’ll lean slightly with the Broncos at -3 or less.
GREEN BAY (-2.0) 21 Minnesota 19
04:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-08
There is a lot of excitement in Minnesota this summer, as fans anticipate what they believe will be a Vikings team that will make a run into the playoffs. Those fans are probably right, as the Vikes added All-Pro DE Jared Allen to an already star studded defensive line to make the Vikings defense amongst the best in the NFL. The Vikings have two of the league’s best defensive tackles in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams and teams have simply stopped trying to run the ball against them. Last season the Vikes allowed just 3.2 ypr and opponents only tried running the ball 35% of the time, which is well below the NFL average of 43% running plays. The pass defense was slightly worse than average, allowing 6.2 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team, and Minnesota’s defense overall was only 0.2 yards per play better than average since teams threw the ball so often against them. To discourage teams from throwing so often the Vikings traded for Allen, who registered 15.5 sacks for Kansas City last season in just 12 games. With opposing teams having to worry about the two Williams’ inside, Allen may see less double teaming and his sacks totals could be even better (especially if teams continue to average 43 pass plays per game against Minnesota. I actually don’t expect Allen’s sack rate to be as high as it was last season, but his sack total could be higher and his contribution to the pass defense should be about 0.4 yppp – which would make the Vikings a better than average while also leading to more interceptions.
Minnesota’s offense revolves around second year back Adrian Peterson, who averaged an incredible 5.6 ypr while backup Chester Taylor ran for 848 yards at 5.4 ypr. I don’t expect either to keep up those high averages, but the Vikings should still average about 5 yards per rush this season. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t asked to do much, but he posted pretty decent numbers for a first time starter, averaging 6.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB. Jackson should improve in his second full season as the starter and adding WR Bernard Berrian upgrades the receiving corps. Jackson needs to cut down on his interception rate, but it’s not a huge problem since the Vikings don’t throw the ball as much as most teams. Minnesota should once again be an above average offensive team, but I don’t think they’ll be quite as good as last year’s attack, which averaged 5.7 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl).
Minnesota was better than average in special teams last season, but they should probably regress towards the middle of the pack in that area this season. The Vikings were a better than average team last season and they’re likely to be even better in 2008 thanks to a defense that should be even better than last year’s fine unit.
The Packers start the post-Favre era with a huge Monday night clash with bitter rival Minnesota in Lambeau Field and it should be a fun game to watch. The Packers brass believes so much in Aaron Rodgers that they didn’t want Brett Favre back when he decided to un-retire, and Rodgers looked good last season against a very good Dallas defense (6.3 yards per pass play against a Dallas defense that would allow just 5.0 yppp at home to an average quarterback). Rodgers has also looked pretty sharp in the preseason, completing 68.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt on just 1 interception on 54 pass attempts. Rodgers does tend to hold onto the ball too long, which resulted in 3 sacks against Dallas last season and 7 sacks on 61 pass plays this summer, but I still rate the Packers’ pass attack as better than average heading into the season with plenty of upside potential. The Packers averaged 4.7 ypr after Ryan Grant became the main running back in week 4 of last season, but his numbers will probably regress a bit with opponents more focused on him this season. The Packers were a very good offensive team last season, averaging 6.4 yards per play from week 4 on against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. I’ll rate the Packers at just 0.4 yppl better than average offensively to start this season, but I’m being conservative in rating Rodgers so they could easily be better.
The Packers’ defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average last season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and I actually think that unit could get a bit worse this season with an aging secondary and the loss of DT Corey Williams, who registered 7 sacks in limited action after taking over for an injured Johnny Jolly. Jolly doesn’t figure to provide the pass rush that Williams did and the pass defense could suffer some. The Packers should still be a bit better than average. Green Bay’s special teams should also be better than average again this season and I expect the Packers to win anywhere between 9 games and 11 games depending on how well Rodgers plays.
My rating favor the Packers by 2 ½ points in this game, so I have no opinion on this game.