9-10-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

WEDNESDAY

10 Dime Cardinals

FREE - Dodgers Run Line

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Getaway Day GOW

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Game Time: 9/10/2008 3:45:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks Reason: I'm laying the price with ARIZONA. After dropping the first two games in this series, this afternoon's contest has almost reached 'must win' status for the Diamondbacks. While that certainly doesn't guarantee a victory, it should guarantee that the entire team gives us a highly motivated effort. More importantly, I expect the Diamondbacks to enjoy a significant advantage on the mound. Dan Haren admittedly hasn't been as sharp lately as he was earlier in the year. However, he insists he's still healthy and he's still got an excellent 3.29 ERA and 1.049 WHIP on the road for the season. The last time he faced the Giants he beat them by a score of 10-2, striking out nine in eight innings without walking a single batter. That was here at San Francisco. His previous start here came in 2007, when he was still with the A's. Once again, Haren was dominant. He went seven shutout innings and the A's won 6-0. Haren had six K's without walking a batter. In addition to the fact that Haren has pitched extremely well his last two visits to San Francisco, another reason I expect him to bounce back with a huge effort is that he has been outstanding when pitching during the afternoon. In fact, in seven daytime starts, he's gone 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a mere .199 batting average. Brad Hennessy gets the call for the Giants and he hasn't made a major league start in nearly two years. His last start wasn't exactly memorable. That came vs. the Cardinals in 2006 and he lasted just two innings. Hennessy allowed three home runs and six runs overall, en route to suffering a 14-4 loss. Hennessy was absolutely terrible out of the bullpen for the Giants this season, recording a 12.46 ERA and 2.775 WHIP. He was sent down to Triple-A and was just 7-10 with a 4.83 ERA in 21 starts. Hennessy has also struggled against Arizona, going 0-2 with 4.73 ERA in 13 games, three of them starts. Look for Haren to get the better of Hennessy as the Diamondbacks bounce back with a much needed victory. *Getaway Day GOW


UNDER oakland/detroit

Game: Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers Game Time: 9/10/2008 1:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Tigers and A's to finish UNDER the total. After 22 runs were scored in the series opener, these teams combined for just five yesterday. I expect that good pitching to carry over into this afternoon's series finale. Galarraga has been Detroit's best pitcher all season. He's also been nearly unhittable when pitching during the afternoon. In fact, in eight daytime starts, he's a perfect 5-0 with an outstanding 1.38 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a mere .198 batting average. Of course, Gallagher's numbers aren't nearly as good as Galarraga's. It's also true that he recently missed a few starts due to shoulder fatigue. However, I believe that he's got a few things working in his favor here. For starters, he's never faced the Tigers which gives him an early advantage over the hitters. As for the 'tired arm,' Gallagher made a rehab start and tossed five shutout innings. Afterwards he was quoted as saying: "I feel good. I felt good going out there and was able to locate my pitches and pitch how I wanted to pitch and how I know I??m able to." Additionally, the Tigers have struggled to hit during the afternoon all season long. In fact, they're averaging just 4.2 runs per game during the day while hitting only .258. Those numbers are significantly lower than what their nighttime stats. Not surprisingly, they've seen the UNDER go a profitable 29-19-4 when playing during the daytime. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip (Note that this line may go from 9 to 9.5. Therefore, I suggest waiting to see if this happens for the chance to play at a better line)

[Mr. IWS]

Here's the FREE winner for today, courtesy of Wayne Root:

Date: September 10, 2008

Sport: MLB

Pick: Wednesday: Take the Cleveland Indians (7:05 P.M. ET)

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Daytime Delight-MLB (won 12 of L18 MLB weeks!)
My Daytime Delight is on the Arz D'backs at 3:45 ET. After dominating NL West foes for most of the year (34-16 against division opponents through August 24), the D'backs have now lost 10 of their last 11 games against division opponents. Arizona has lost 12 of its last 15 overall and EIGHT straight to division foes and will take losing streaks of five straight overall and nine straight on the road into this game. Is there ANY reason to take Arizona here? Actually, I think there are more than a few. Last night's loss (and LA's win) has dropped the D'backs a season-high 2 1/2 games behind the Dodgers, with 18 games remaining. The time to turn things around is NOW! Arizona couldn't ask for a better pitching matchup in this game, as Dan Haren (14-8, 3.41 ERA) squares off against Brad Hennessey (1-1, 12.46 ERA). There are some 'whispers' that Haren is not 100 percent but I'm not ready to "buy into that" after just two poor starts. Arizona's ace Brandon Webb has been 'rocked' in his last three starts (12.51 ERA) and the D'backs have lost Haren's last three outings as well. However, Haren pitched very well in the first of those three straight team losses, allowing on two ERs over seven innings, while striking out 11 batters. He has been bad in his last two starts (10 IP / 16 hits / 10 ERs / 9.00 ERA) but it's only TWO starts! What's the big deal? The bigger deal is of course, Arizona's recent collapse. Arizona has an off day tomorrow and then returns to Chase Field to host the Reds (66-79) and Giants (64-80) for seven games. The team couldn't ask for a much better schedule than that and getting a win here would be an enormous boost. I see no reason for Haren to NOT pitch well here vs a San Fran team batting just .261 and averaging 3.94 RPG (3.91 at home). Also, why WON'T the D'backs bats get to Brad Hennessey? Hennessey went 10-14 with a 4.47 ERA in '05 and '06 for the Giants, making 55 appearances (33 starts). He then was used exclusively out of the bullpen in '07, going 4-5 with a 3.42 ERA in 69 appearances, getting 19 saves (24 chances). He began the '08 season in the bullpen but was so bad with 40 hits and 24 ERs allowed in 17.1 innings (12.46 ERA), that he was sent to the minors on May 7. He's hardly been dominant in Fresno, going 7-10 with a 4.83 ERA in 21 starts. This marks his first major league start in nearly two years. Daytime Delight on the Arizona D'backs.

Good Luck...larry

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (won 12 of L18 MLB weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET. Current form is always important in handicapping but so is "playing the percentages." Those two theories collide tonight as the Blue Jays meet the White Sox in Chicago. Toronto swept a day-night doubleheader at Chicago on Tuesday, 3-1 and 8-2. Chicago's lead in the AL Central was cut to one game and the two wins give the Blue Jays 10 consecutive victories, the team's longest winning streak in 10 years. The Blue Jays are 6-0 against the White Sox this season (outscoring them 23-8) and will send Roy Halladay to the mound, who is 18-9 with a 2.64 ERA on the year. He's won his last five starts (2.25 ERA) but Halladay is a modest 3-3 with a 3.06 ERA in nine starts and three relief appearances against the White Sox in his career, with the Blue Jays going just 3-6 in those nine starts. Believe it or not, U.S. Cellular Field is the only current AL park in which Halladay has never won in, although he hasn't pitched poorly, going 0-1 with a 2.35 ERA in three previous starts there. Surely current form favors the Blue Jays but let's look at these set of stats, all of which greatly favor the White Sox. Mark Buehrle (12-11, 3.98 ERA) is set to oppose Halladay and he's been one of the AL's best pitchers this decade, especially at home. While he's 3-8 on the road in '08 with a 5.34 ERA, he's 9-3 with a 2.85 ERA at home, as the White Sox are 12-3 in his 15 home starts (they've on 11 of his L12!). The lefty will face a Toronto team which was only 3-11 in road night games against lefties in '08 (averaging a pathetic 2.6 RPG), before beating Clayton Richard last night. As the famous saying goes, "Clayton Richard is no Mark Buehrle!" Then there is Chicago's home record in '08, which is 48-25, as the White sox have outscored opponents 5.74 RPG-to-4.12, while the Blue Jays are only 35-37 on the road. Let's also note that while Halladay is a dominant pitcher, the White Sox (even after yesterday's two losses), are 32-18 at home vs righties this year, averaging 5.9 RPG. At this price, the White Sox are "well worth the gamble." Oddsmaker's Error on the Chi White Sox.

Good Luck...Larry

[timbob]

Root

Chairman- Blue Jays
Millionaire- Cubs