Mr. IWS
09-17-2008, 11:19 AM
bob
Kansas St. (-4.0) 26 LOUISVILLE 22
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Sep-17
Louisville is really struggling offensively due to a lack of experience at the receiver position. Quarterback Hunter Cantwell entered this season averaging 8.0 yards per pass play on 168 career pass plays in 3 seasons as a backup to Brian Brohm, but he’s averaged only 4.6 yppp on 70 pass plays this season without last year’s top 8 pass catchers. The Cardinals’ offense was held scoreless in their 2-27 loss to Kentucky and the 51 points scored against Tennessee Tech in week 2 is misleading since the 6.5 yards per play gained by Louisville in that game was done so against a Tech defense that would allow 7.0 yppl on the road to an average team. Louisville has turned around their defense, which has allowed just 3.3 yards per play in two games and held Kentucky’s good rushing attack to just 76 yards at 2.5 yards per rushing play in week 1. Kansas State has a solid defense that should limit Louisville’s struggling attack while Josh Freeman and the Kansas State offense, averaging 6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team should do a better job of moving the ball despite Louisville’s improved stop unit. My ratings actually favor Kansas State by 9 points in this game, but Kansas State applies to a negative 12-51-2 ATS situation wile Louisville applies to a 121-51-1 ATS early season home underdog situation. I’ll pass on the side, but I’ll lean with the Under in this game.
Kansas St. (-4.0) 26 LOUISVILLE 22
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Sep-17
Louisville is really struggling offensively due to a lack of experience at the receiver position. Quarterback Hunter Cantwell entered this season averaging 8.0 yards per pass play on 168 career pass plays in 3 seasons as a backup to Brian Brohm, but he’s averaged only 4.6 yppp on 70 pass plays this season without last year’s top 8 pass catchers. The Cardinals’ offense was held scoreless in their 2-27 loss to Kentucky and the 51 points scored against Tennessee Tech in week 2 is misleading since the 6.5 yards per play gained by Louisville in that game was done so against a Tech defense that would allow 7.0 yppl on the road to an average team. Louisville has turned around their defense, which has allowed just 3.3 yards per play in two games and held Kentucky’s good rushing attack to just 76 yards at 2.5 yards per rushing play in week 1. Kansas State has a solid defense that should limit Louisville’s struggling attack while Josh Freeman and the Kansas State offense, averaging 6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team should do a better job of moving the ball despite Louisville’s improved stop unit. My ratings actually favor Kansas State by 9 points in this game, but Kansas State applies to a negative 12-51-2 ATS situation wile Louisville applies to a 121-51-1 ATS early season home underdog situation. I’ll pass on the side, but I’ll lean with the Under in this game.