9-17-08

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy


Wednesday's Premium Play

Louisville +4 (3 units) (POD)

You might want to look at the ML for this game. But, given that I will always take the points in any given wager as some points are better than none, I will take it at the spread. After all, one can see this game coming down to a field goal or a push. But, I have always believed in taking dogs that can win outright, unless in cases of revenge where my research points the other way. As per this game, this is a ballgame that Louisville can win outright. Why not? Over 70% of the public is on the visiting Kansas State and no one is giving Louisville a chance here. I'm not saying shady things happen on weekday football. But, I'm saying that on a weekday football game, when the whole world is on one team, and over 70% are riding that team, and making it a road team on top of that, I can see the Cardinals feeling disrespected here and getting fired up at home. Look, it is now or never for Louisville in many ways. Their coaching staff is on the hot seat, this team has started off the season getting pounded by in-sate rivals Kentucky at home scoring just 2 points. Remember, they came back fired up and put up 50+ points on Tennessee Tech showing that they can still be the Louisville of recent memory. Yes, Kansas State has won 2 ballgames big, by scores of 69-10 and 45-6. But, they played a bunch of scrub teams in Montana State and North Texas. Now, this team has to play on the road and their first road game at that. I'm a fan of Big 12 Football in Kansas State, but this just sets up to be a public burial today. No one is respecting Louisville here, and although K-State is a talented team, this game is on National night-time television and I can see Louisville getting pumped for this game. I'll take my chances on the home team that is feeling disrespected for a possible outright here.

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | MLB RunLine
double-dime bet970 TOR -1.5 (+115) BetUS vs 969 BAL
Analysis: Stan has Bet TORONTO (-1.5 RUNS). Stan notes that Baltimore pulled the upset as a road dog last night and when they have done that against a division rival they are just 5-25 in their next game the last 3 years. TAKE TORONTO(-1.5 RUNS) as STAN'S REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes | MLB Total
double-dime bet962 WAS / 961 NYM Over 9 Bookmaker
Analysis: The Mets who had a good advantage of 3 games over the Phillies in the NL East lead have suddenly stopped playing baseball by losing 4 of their last 5 games and they are now once again behind the Phillies and with a little advantage over the Brewers in the fight for the NL Wildcard. Yesterday the team went scoreless with just .133 BA and .295 OPS! Terrible numbers for a team which is trying to reach the postseason. Today I expect a bounce back from the offense of the Mets, as the spot is much different. In the two defeats of the Mets, they face 2 pitchers who are in a good moment and are able to go deep into the games, while making good quality starts. That was the case of Lannan and Perez yesterday. Today the scenario will be much different.

The Nationals will send Shairon Martis, who will make his third start for the Nats. Martis allowed 2 runs in each game, while pitching for 5 innings in both outings against the Braves and the Marlins. However there are some details that shows us that under pressure, Martis will struggle a lot. The truth is that Marquis allowed 5 walks against the Braves and 3 walks against the Marlins. Take also note that from the first game to the second, he had 7 days of rest and for this game he had just 4 days and on his last outing against the Marlins, he threw more than 100 pitches, in an high count number game. So, I expect the offense of the Mets to take advantage of this, especially as they are 20-11 Over after scoring 2 runs or less this season.

On the other side, I also expect the Nationals to be better offensively today. First of all, the team isn't the same weak offensive club that they were a couple of months ago. Just look that even though they are 2-5 in their last 7 games, they averaged 5.1 runs and .354 BA! Today the Mets will send Brandon Michael Knight, who has just made one outing this season as a SP, in July, where he allowed 4 runs and 7 hits in 5 innings against the Cardinals. After this outing, he has played as a reliever in 2 outings and as a matter of fact, on his last outing, he faced the Nationals, where he struggled a lot in just 1 inning, allowing 1 run and 1 walk, while needing 24 pitches to close the inning! So, I also expect Knight to struggle today and the Nationals should be able to take advantage of this.

The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 Games of the Nationals in a Game 3 of a series and 7-2-1 in the Nats last 10 home games. It's also curious to see that Washington is 10-1 Over in home games after allowing 2 runs or less in two straight games over the last 3 seasons. I expect a game with a lot of runs, as the team won't have good pitchers on the field and the fact that the two previous games of this series have been such low scoring affairs has sent this line from 9,5 to 9 runs, which gave a lot more value than the line had when it was opened. On my research, I've also found out a really interesting trend for the over:

All teams where the total is 9 to 9,5 and are off from 2 straight upset wins over division rivals as a home underdog and have just won 38% to 46% of their games on the season are 31-9 Over since 1997.

So, I'm taking the over in here. Double Dime Play

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet959 STL (-120)Bodog vs 960 CIN
Analysis: Cincinnati's Aaron Harang is just 1-9 against NL Central opponents this season with a 6.14 ERA. That includes an 0-2 mark and 10.61 ERA against the Cardinals, who will be looking to end a season-high six-game losing streak. St. Louis has won three of the last four road starts for Todd Wellemeyer, and he is 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA overall away from home this season. Another key factor here is that Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols is making a late run at the NL MVP award and has battered both Harang and the Reds during his career. Pujols is hitting .356 (11-for-31) vs. Cincy this season and .359 (14-for-39) lifetime vs. Harang. He is also hitting .416 in his last 26 games overall. Look for Pujols to be the difference yet again on Wednesday and bet the Cardinals to end their skid as my Triple Dime NL Favorite Play O' the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

ProCappersNetwork


I had a winner last night with the Chicago/NY Yankees game staying Under the total. Here is tonight's free premium selection in MLB:

Baltimore +1.62 (3 Unit Play)

An exciting night for Oscarxena Sports as I am releasing my last 5* play of the season in MLB this evening that is included in a seven play card! Just to show you how rarely I release a 5* this is only my 5th 5* since April 15th so I feel strongly about this game. I am not guaranteeing that it will be a winner but all factors stack up to a big play for me on this game this evening. You can grab this play along with the other six plays of which Baltimore is one of them along with a 3* in College Football and the rest of this week's football and the rest of the MLB regular season for just $20. Go to procappersnetwork.com and sign up as the card is up and loaded right now.

Good luck everyone tonight.

Oscarxena Sports

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe's KState/Louisville Comp Pick

We are now 4-1 on the year with our FREE Winners. We go for win #5 tonight!

Wednesday Comp Play
Kansas State/Louisville Under 56
Kansas State has rolled up a ton of points early in the season, but tonight on they will face their first game away from home and their first game against an opponent any of us have heard of. Louisville is a big and physical team which is not the same high powered offense we were used to seeing with Brian Brohm. The Cardinals are going to run the ball and on defense will not allow KState to score a ton of points. I cant get over how Louisville only scored 2 pts against Kentucky. This offense will struggle against better opponents this year. 56 points is a lot of points even if Navy and Texas Tech were playing. Both teams are very young and to put up that many points we would have to see a lot of turnovers and special team plays for touchdowns. Since stuff like that is impossible to predict lets take our chances with the Under.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George | CFB Side
dime bet301 Kansas St. -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 302 Louisville
Analysis:

Kansas State - 4

BETTER DEFENSE WINS GAMES. Especially against Lousiville!! While Louisville did a nice job scoring over 50 points against Tenn. Tech , I have not forgotten the ticket I cashed against them with Kentucky as they were a fav at home in that game and got hammered 27-2. K State has a mobile strong armed QB in Freeman, and quite frankly, The Cards defense should allow him free reign to move the chains all night for K State. K State's defense is physical, which always gives the Cards fits when they play a physical team and Coach Ron Prince, who is on the hot seat at K State, has pointed towards this game all off-season, and after scoring over 60 points last week against Montana State, K State was surely not looking ahead and roll in here with a full head of steam and a better team, even on the road.


Play 1 Unit on Kansas State

[Mr. IWS]

JB Sports | CFB Side
dime bet302 Louisville 4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 301 Kansas St.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee @ Cubs

3* Milwaukee

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Majors | CFB Side
double-dime bet302 Louisville 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 301 Kansas St.
Analysis:
The Kansas State Wildcats are traveling to the Louisville Cardinals in a Wednesday night matchup.

The Wildcats are 2-0 playing at home against two patsies in Montana State and North Texas State and beating both very easily. The Wildcats have not really been tested as of this season and this is the first game on the road.

Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 1-1 losing to Kentucky and beating a Tennessee Tech squad that was weak. The Cardinal have a good defense and very good against the run. The offense will develop on the fly under first year coordinator and for QB Jeff Brohm.

The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS last 21 games on the road and 1-7 in last 8 road games. The Cards are 22-3 straight up in its last 25 home games.

I like the chances of the Cardinals winning straight up and they are playing with a Home Team crowd.

Take Louisville and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* Kst
10* kst/louv over
10* Brewers
10* Red Socks
10* hou/fla under
10* sf/az under

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CFB Side
double-dime bet301 Kansas St. -4.0 (-120) BetUS vs 302 Louisville
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER ** (Buy the 1/2 to -4)
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

AJ Apollo

3* Minnesota Twins (Baker vs Lee)

3* Pittsburgh Pirates (Duke vs Billingsley)

[Mr. IWS]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

3 STAR: (960) CINCINNATI (+$105) over St. Louis
(Action)
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3 STAR: (962) WASHINGTON (+$108) over NY Mets
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6:10PM Central Time

3 STAR: (971) MINNESOTA (+$156) over Cleveland
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6:05PM Central Time

3 STAR: (980) OAKLAND (+$107) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $300 to win $321)
9:05PM Central Time

[Mr. IWS]

Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, September 17, 2008
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TOP RATED BASEBALL SURE THING PLAY OF THE DAY
Kansas City w/Meche -154 8:10 EST

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO

Kansas State

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

10 - K St

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

3* Astros/ Marlins Under 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman
5* Angels
3* Minn
3* Over KC/Sea.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
3 units Louisville +4

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass 50*

kst/louv over

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

high rollers 10 unit indians run line

5 cubs
4 rangers
3 royals

[Mr. IWS]

Special K

20* Super K
Kansas State