9-18-08

[Mr. IWS]

Players of America


Today's Selections

WVU vs. COL
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Colorado Buffaloes
The Play: West Virginia Mountaineers -3.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
Welcome back to Week #4 of the 2008 college football season. This week is lining up to be a good one with several good teams digging themselves out of big time holes, and other underdogs popping up everywhere. On Thursday night, a very nice dual is set to take place in Colorado as the Buffalo are set to host the visiting #24 West Virginia Mountaineers. These are two well-above average squads this season. West Virginia comes in off a big time shocker losing to Cinderella Story East Carolina, while Colorado comes in 2-0 on the season and putting up some big time numbers maybe unexpectedly.

To cut to the chase, we'll be on the Mountaineers here tonight. West Virginia has something to prove, and that is that they are MUCH, MUCH better than the show they put on last week in Carolina. The fact behind that is.they really are. WVU is averaging a savvy 304 yards on offense per game along with an eye popping 5.8 yards per carry. Through the air, they are right around five and a half yards per toss, too. The stud himself, Patrick White, is finally healthy and ready to make his case as a big time professional prospect. He has a completion % of 72 on the year and has thrown 6 TD's and just one pick so far.

Colorado on the other hand shouldn't have too many problems keeping up with this offensive attack though. They average just over 350 yards per contest but only 3.4 per rush. Let's not short QB Cody Hawkins in this one at all. Cody is one heck of an athlete and is on the verge of turning that Buffalo program in a better direction. Cody has thrown two picks already this season along with four touchdowns.

This one is panning out to be a shootout and could have big time ramifications in a few short weeks. There is no reason that both of these teams don't combine for over 60 total points, hence making the total an attractive wager. However, the clear edge on such a short number to the home dog begs for action on the public favorite here tonight. Let's jump aboard and enjoy the show here, what do you say? Colorado has looked good to date, and is well improved, but too much experience, depth, speed and consistency will lead Pat White and his followers to a victory Thursday night in Colorado.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-West Virginia is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass
-West Virginia is 13-5 in their last 18 road games

West Virginia 37, Colorado 31

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

(921) BAL Orioles
(922) TOR Blue Jays
Take "Over"
A couple of decent offensive teams meet here. Baltimore is 6th in the AL in runs scored, while Toronto has been terrific offensively in the second half of the season while getting key offensive players healthy. The joke in Baltimore is that the Orioles are in a tailspin these days, thanks to a pitching staff that can't even get health insurance anymore. They are on their way to their 11th straight losing season. You can't walk batters in a hitter-friendly stadium like Toronto, but Orioles righty Daniel Cabrera has walked 90 in 180 innings, a terrible ratio. And he's getting worse: 14 walks in his last 12 innings! Jesse Litsch is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA against the Orioles, and an 11.57 ERA this season. Cabrera is 4-8with a 4.92 ERA against Toronto, walking 48 in 93 innings. Look for plenty of runs in this one. Play the Orioles/Blue Jays over the total.

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE

Thursday - 9/18

Play On: San Francisco w/Lincecum

Note: Tim Lincecum and the Giants close out their series against Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks in Arizona tonight. Lincecum loves hurling on Thursdays, going 5-1 in his MLB career, including 3-0 away. With 8 walks and 36 strikeouts in his five career starts against Arizona, and with the Diamondbacks having scored more than 4 runs in just 1 of their last 10 games, we'll back Lincecum and the Giants here this evening

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* Col
10* wv/col over
10* Dodgers
10* Angels
10* White Sox
10* Houston/Fla under

[Mr. IWS]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

5 STAR: (902) PITTSBURGH (+$113) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Maholm only)
(Risking $500 to win $565)
11:35PM Central Time

5 STAR: (918) OAKLAND (+$104) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $500 to win $520)
2:35PM Central Time

[Mr. IWS]

Mr East
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Thursday September 18, 2008 9:40 pm
Pick: 4 units MONEYLINE: San Francisco Giants -104

Arizona continues to hang on by a thread in the NL West as they are now 3.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Giants season has long been over, but they have one objective left, and that is to get Tim Lincecum wins, on his way to a potential Cy Young award. Lincecum has had a brilliant season, and is an emerging star in the NL> He has saved his best work for the road where he is an NL best 10-1 with a stelar 2.13 ERA. While the Giants have not been road warriors, that entire equation changes with Lincecum on the hill, as overall they are 12-4 on the season, so basically we get even odds here, with a pitcher that leads his team to 3 wins every 4 games on the road. Randy Johnson has had a reasonable season, but he has not pitched well at home all season, where his ERA is almost 2 runs higher at 4.95. Good spot for the Giants with Lincecum at even money

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet303 West Virginia -2.5 (-110) SportBet vs 304 Colorado
Analysis:
-2.5 at Bookmaker.com



We're getting TREMENDOUS LINE VALUE on a team that has a 34-6 record over its last 40 games - especially when considering that East Carolina is a Top 10 caliber team - displaying that in shutting down both Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks.



West Virginia has had two weeks to get prepared for this ESPN clash and will undoubtedly get back to is winnings ways and that's RUNNING THE FOOTBALL.



Why is this important you ask? Well the Colorado Buffaloes are 0-12-1 ATS when getting outrushed by an opponent during the Dan Hawkins' era, which includes an 0-4-1 mark at home.



That's trouble considering that West Virginia has outrused all 17 opponents on the road the past three years and 34 of its last 35 opponents overall. They've managed to produce 4,711 yards on the ground compared to just 1,591 for their opponents.



West Virginia still has some players that are not use to losing, as this is the first time the current senior class has been at a .500 record - which is VERY IMPORTANT when preparing for a game.



Finally - West Virginia relishes this type of road situation, as they are 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games - covering the spread by 6.5 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes | MLB Total
double-dime bet908 FLA / 907 HOU Over 8 Bookmaker
Analysis: Unfortunately the hurricane Ike didn't just cause damages on the social life of thousands of people, but also in the sports life of the city and the Astros were one of the victims. The Astros were the hottest team in the whole MLB until September, 11th. But then the hurricane Ike prevented the Astros from playing until September, 14th and then all the momentum was gone. The team lost 4 consecutive games, with the offense being awful with .000, .037, .152 and .182 of Batting average. For this game, I expect the team to improve a little bit in the offense and I'll explain why later, with the Marlins at the same time being in a great run and fighting for the postseason via wildcard. Yesterday's game ended with a Marlins win by 14-2 and for today, I expect an high scoring affair once again, but much closer.

The Astros will send Alberto Arias, who on his debut for the Astros against the Pirates went scoreless in 5 innings, allowing just 2 hits. Even though he had a great debut, I expect today's game to be much different, as first of all Houston was on-fire at the time of his debut, with an huge momentum, which gave a lot of confidence to Arias, while right now the team is currently on a losing streak and lacking confidence. And to make things even worse, they will face a team with a great momentum right now, with 7 wins in a row and when this team has confidence, they are extremely dangerous in the offense, with them being 19-9 Over after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

On the other side, the Marlins will send the southpaw Scott Olsen and this may be the solution for the offense of the Astros. Olsen comes from a quality start against the Nationals, where he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings, but he has been terrible lately, as he allowed 4-6-4-4-3-5 runs before this quality outing. So I wouldn't be surprised if he has another letdown today. That's good news for the offense of the Astros, which has been horrible lately, but we need to remember that they faced Zambrano, Lilly, Volstad and Nolasco, which didn't help them at all and today against Olsen, their task will be much easier.

Houston is 14-2 Over after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons and I expect a good response from both offenses today. The line is at 8 runs, so it is accessible, having in account the scenario of this game. Take the over in here. Double Dime Pick!



Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB RunLine
dime bet905 NYM -1.5 (-125) Bookmaker vs 906 WAS
Analysis: This play has as a basic fundament an important psychological analysis, which combined to a technical analysis makes the Mets an excellent option for this game. Yesterday's win over the Nationals was extremely important in psychological terms, as we all remember the collapse of the Mets at the end of last season, where the Mets didn't hold a decent lead over the Phillies and ended up out of the postseason. The team entered a similar situation lately, as the team before yesterday's game had lost 3 of their last 4 games and curiously the Nationals were the responsible team for the two previous losses of the Mets and coincidence or not, it was also the Nats the team which was the main responsible for the Mets' last season collapse. If we add the fact that the Mets were coming from yesterday's game with just 2 and 0 runs scored in their previous two games, their scenario for yesterday's game wasn't great. However the Mets won yesterday by 9-7 and this win was one of the most important of the season for them and the team will now come more confident for today's game. This was the psychological analysis of the team.

The technical analysis also gives an edge for the Mets today. Johan Santana will start and this means the bullpen will have some rest today, which is great news for the team. The Mets are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts and he has been awesome in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts.

On the other side, the Nationals will send Tim Redding, who comes from three outings where he struggled and had an ERA of 4.58. He has already beaten this season his record for most innings in a season and probably that's the reason why he has been struggling lately.

The Mets have a great chance to win today, with their ace in the field. The Nationals are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs LHP, which is a good sign for the Mets, which comes to this game with their confidence back. I predict another struggle for Redding today, with the Mets being 5-1 in their last 6 games during a Game 4 of a series. I expect an easy win for the Mets today, so I'll take them on the runline in here


Thu, 09/18/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB Money Line
dime bet909 STL (+124)Bodog vs 910 CIN
Analysis: Normally, one of my rules in handicapping MLB is to not try to guess when a losing streak of a team is going to end. Today the scenario for the Cardinals is exactly this one: the team is coming from 7 defeats in a row and they are getting too far from the Wildcard, which would give them a place in the postseason. On the other side, the Reds are in a good phase right now, having won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 games. Today that's the spot we find for this game and I think the Cardinals are an excellent dog for tonight and with a great chance to win.

They will send Kyle Lohse, who has been doing a good season with a 13-6 and 3.80 ERA record, even though he had a better first part of the season than the second one. However this game has some special conditions for Lohse, whose last outing was exactly against the Reds and in that game there was an incident, which originated a suspension for Lohse of 5 games. The situation was considered to be unfair, as the Cards manager later told:

"The other guy threw two balls at guys' heads," La Russa said. "I don't know, I'm just shocked."

So, I expect Lohse to have an excellent performance today, having in account this will be a revenge game for him and he comes to this outing with 7 days of rest.

On the other side, the Reds will send Edinson Volquez, who has been doing a tremendous season with 16-5 and 3.22 ERA, however on his last 3 outings, he had very long outings and sooner or later, this will have its consequences. He had 4.82 ERA in those 3 starts and in each game, he threw 117, 119 and 121 pitches, with just 4 days off to rest between games. This very high number of pitches will make him struggle and already on his last outing against the D-Backs, he showed that, as he allowed 6 walks, something not usual for him.

For this game, I expect a good outing for Lohse, which will want to take revenge from what they did to him in the last game, while Volquez is due a letdown, so having in account the price of the Cardinals today, we have an excellent spot that we can't refuse, so take the Cards to win today

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George | MLB Total
dime bet920 NYY / 919 CWS Under 8.5 BetUS
Analysis:


Under 8.5 Yankees and White Sox

Earlier this month these two played 3 games and all 3 went under. Look for a pitchers duel tonight with Mussina for NY and Vasquez for the White Sox, whose last 3 starts his ERA is under 2. The White Sox as a team are hitting right handers at .247 in the last 10 games, and the Yanks hitting only .250 in the same timeframe. Not a whopping average by any stretch. 2 Good Picthers, 2 teams struggling at the plate, in a tightly contested game. NY has went under 6 out of their last 8 games, the Sox are 6-2 on unders with road starts for Vasquez.

Play 1 Unit on the Under tonight, check out my season ending, post season package in bases guys, a Money Maker! Tony, Thanks for for business.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

College Football
West Virginia/Colorado Under 56.5
WVU is know as an explosive offense, but they did nothing against ECU and were expected to put up points on Villanova. Pat White has not been the same threat as a mobile QB since he was banged up last year and West Virginia doesn't really scare you with their wide receivers. Colorado has a tough 6 game schedule which will put them back up among the best teams in the nation if they can play well. The Buffs know they need to control the pace of the game and so far the WVU defense has been on the field a lot. If Colorado can take their time and not try to turn this into a shootout they will have a better chance of winning. The Buffs defense plays great against the run and should contain WVU tonight. WVU will get middle linebacker Reed Williams back tonight which will help this defense tremendously. Take the Under.

Major League Baseball
Dodgers/Pirates Over 8 runs
Kershaw/Maholm

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | CFB Side
double-dime bet304 Colorado 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 303 West Virginia
Analysis: 8:35pm ET / West Virginia Mountaineers @ Colorado Buffaloes
2** Play on: COLORADO

The Mountaineers of West Virginia will get a REAL taste of the mountains tonight, as they must endure the SEVERE altitude adjustment in Boulder, Colorado. And in most cases, we look to play AGAINST a sea-level visiting favorite or very small underdog at a stadium one mile or more above sea level when all factors indicate a close game. It actually takes about 10 days for the body to completely acclimate to altitude, so teams making road trips to the Rocky Mountains simply don't have enough time to fully adjust. They often struggle, especially in the second half of a game. Colorado does have a large altitude edge as they have been in it for TWO months while West Virginia just came in this week after a couple of weeks at home, where the altitude is just under 1000 feet. The Buffaloes have done well in recent seasons with an extended stay at home in the mountains, as they have won their last 6 games SU there when coming off a previous home game, and since 2005 in this spot they are an incredible 5-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+21.8 ppg) including outright upset wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

In fact, BOTH teams come in off an early-season WEEK OF REST.... and the Playbook database tells us to play on the HOME team in certain conditions. This situation had qualifier as recently as last night, with LOUISVILLE being the play against Kansas State.

College Football GAME THREE home teams are 15-3 ATS since 2001 when BOTH teams come in with REST (Colorado / West Virginia). And in non-conference games (like last night and TONIGHT), the results shoot up to a PERFECT 8-0 ATS (after last night's win).

[Mr. IWS]

The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008

92% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL RUN LINE WINNER
Philadelphia w/Hamels -1.5 -135 7:10 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Rick George Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: MY MLB GEM OF THE WEEK GOES TONIGHT. After a few days off as the inflated lines make it tougher this time of year. Tonight we jump back in with one GEM which you can get for just $25 pay after you win. 9/18/2008

6* #920 NY Yankees -135 (7:05edt)
Thank you and good luck tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008

5000 LARGE PERSONAL FAVORITE MLB WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Shields -168 7:10 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008

5000* ELITE BASEBALL WINNER
Arizona w/Johnson +100 9:40 EST

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet924 TAM (-160)Sportsbetting.com vs 923 MIN
Analysis: *** MLB 3* BEST BET of the DAY *** (Shields vs Perkins)

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | MLB RunLine
double-dime bet922 TOR -1.5 (-115) Bookmaker vs 921 BAL
Analysis: Stan has Bet TORONTO (-1.5 RUNS). Stan is coming right back with Toronto as he feels that Baltimore will be blown out tonight as Jesse Litsch is 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA at home. Also note that after giving up 8 runs or more Baltimore is just 9-22 this year. TAKE TORONTO(-1.5 RUNS) as STAN'S AL PITCHER MISMATCH OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

kelso

best bets
5 mets run line
4 florida




kelso

best bets football 3 colorado
high rollers 10 unit - yankees

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CFB Total

double-dime bet304 Colorado / 303 West Virginia Under 57.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** 2* TOTAL **




PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet913 SFG (-105)Sportsbetting.com vs 914 ARI
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER ** (Lincecum vs Johnson)



vegas-runner | MLB Money Line

double-dime bet905 NYM (+125)Sportsbetting.com vs 906 WAS
Analysis: ** 2* MLB PARLAY PLAY of the DAY **


TM 1: NY METS -205 (Santana vs Redding)

TM 2: PHILLIES -210 (Hamels vs Hampton)

2 UNIT PARLAY BET to WIN 2.5 UNITS (+125)

[Mr. IWS]

T.Cover
Teddy has 10 WVirginia

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock FB
3 units Colorado +3

[Mr. IWS]

Oscarxena Sports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I lost my premium MLB selection last night as Baltimore fell 8-7 as big dogs. Here is a premium selection from tonight's card:

Baltimore/Toronto Under 10 -1.09 (3 Unit Play)

Best of luck to everyone this evening.

Oscarxena Sports

[Mr. IWS]

ATSLOCKS.COM

Free Play--WVU@CO--OVER 56

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

Double-Dime Bet

West Virginia -3.0 vs Colorado

This line is way too short. Almost like taking candy from a baby. WVU has now had 12 days to recoup from its 24-3 loss at East Carolina, which all but dashed the Mountaineers National Title hopes. Still, remember this was a Top Ten team two weeks ago and while they certainly have lost a bit of that luster, Bill Stewart's team is substantially better than what Dan Hawkins has to offer in Boulder. Big East teams are actually on a 2-0 streak against the Big 12 with South Florida taking care of Kansas last Friday and L'ville taking care of Kansas State last night (we predicted both). The Mountaineers are 15-6-1 ATS as a road favorite while the Buffaloes are 0 for their last 9 at the betting window against non-conference BCS schools. They are also 1-6 SU when hosting non-conf BCS teams with the average loss coming by 16 PPG. Furthermore, CU is just 3-6 ATS as a home dog and 2-6 SU/ATS coming off a bye week. Coming into 2008, the Mountaineers had won 14 of 16 on the road, including five straight wins over non-conference opposition. After the ECU loss, Coach Stewart has made some noise about going back to some more basic zone option plays, which is bad news for Colorado, who doesn't see much of that in the Big 12 and will be unable to adjust to the speed of Pat White. West Virginia is our CFB Oddsmakers Mismatch.

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

Colorado +3 over West Virginia, Thursday, Sept. 18th at 7:30 PM CST

The coaching change and the new philosophy on offense has obviously hurt West Virginia this year. The Mountaineers are 1-1 with a win over Villanova and a 24-3 loss vs. East Carolina. The scary part is this, WVU was out gained in BOTH games. Nova’ out gained them by 45 yards and ECU by 135. This from a team that out gained every opponent in 2007 which the exception of Pitt who had 42 more total yards in the season finale.

WVU has switched to more of a pro style attack on offense and it’s really affected their running game. This year after two games they are averaging just 164 YPG on the ground. Last year the Mountaineers averaged 292 YPG on the ground which was good for 4th nationally in that category. QB Pat White has thrown a whopping 51 passes in his first two games this season. That’s the highest back to back game total in his entire career. For whatever reason, new head coach Bill Stewart has gone away from this team’s strength. White is not a great passer. He can be very effective when his team runs the ball for nearly 300 yards, thus opening up the pass. That’s not what is happening this year and it shows on the field.

Colorado is 2-0 after dominating Colorado State 38-17 to open the season and then skipping by Eastern Washington 31-24. They played very lethargic in their close win over EWU and head coach Dan Hawkins implied that his team was “looking at the logo on the other team’s helmet” rather than simply playing hard no matter who you face. This is a huge home game for the Buffs and we can expect a huge effort.

West Virginia’s defense has just four returning starters and none in the defensive backfield. That explains why they have really struggled to stop the pass. That’s bad news for them here as they face a very solid QB in Cody Hawkins. He has hit almost 72% of his passes in the first two games and he should be able to shred a WVU unit that has allowed 254 YPG through the air this year.

WVU is not ready to be laying points on the road to a solid team. They showed that when they went to East Carolina as a TD favorite and put up just 3 points. Both sides of the ball are struggling with the new systems and we have a much more stable environment with Colorado right now. We’ll take the home team to win outright.