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Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 10:30 AM
Larry Ness' 15* Getaway Day Game of the Week (186-103 two-year run)
My 15* play is on the LA Angels at 3:35 ET. All of a sudden, the Angels are struggling on the road. LA still owns MLB's best road record at 43-30 but last night's 3-2 loss to the A's, drops the Angels to 5-11 over their last 16 road games. Last night's loss was particularly tough to swallow. Teixeira hit a two-run HR in the top of the ninth to give the Angels a 2-1 lead but the Angels made two throwing errors in the bottom of the inning (one by record-setting closer K-Rod), which allowed two runs to score. Oakland has now won four straight but is still only 71-80 on the year, including 40-37 at home, where the A's have averaged a puny 3.99 RPG. Rookie Josh Outman (1-0, 3.86 ERA) will make his second career start this afternoon. He won his first major league start Saturday against Texas, giving up one run in five innings in a 7-1 victory. The 24-year-old left-hander was acquired July 17 in a trade that sent Joe Blanton to Philadelphia and while the Angels are slumping, one must still note that they are 30-14 this year against lefties. Speaking of lefties, getting the call for LA is Joe Saunders. Saunders did whatever was asked of him in '06 and '07, regularly getting shuttled between the majors and the minors. Under very difficult conditions, his two-year mark was an impressive 15-5 (4.55 ERA), as the Angels went 21-10 in his starts. He's been a MAJOR cog in the rotation all season and enters this game 15-7 with a 3.65 ERA. In fact, he's been the team's biggest "money-maker" among starters, as the Angels are 21-8 (plus-$1,068) in his 29 starts TY (ranks 8th-best among all MLB starters). He's got 20 quality starts this season and has allowed three ERs or less in 23 of 29 outings in '08. He's actually been better on the road (9-3 with a 2.74 ERA), than he has at home (6-4 with a 4.55 ERA) this season and he's been just terrific in daytime starts this year. Saunders has made nine afternoon starts in '08, going 6-0 with a 3.38 ERA (team is 8-1). His good daytime record is VERY significant here, as the A's are only 5-15 ve lefties in day games this year, averaging 3.2 RPG. Getaway Day Game of the Week 15* LA Angels.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (52-33 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The Yankees will likely will be eliminated from the playoff 'picture' this weekend for the first time since 1993 but the Yanks are making life hard on the White Sox this week in The Bronx, winning two of the first three games of this four-game series which concludes tonight. Chicago leads the Twins by 2 1/2 games in the Central and with the Twins opening a four-game series at Tampa tonight (Rays are 55-22 at home!), the White Sox know they have a great opportunity to distance themselves from Minnesota if they can start winning. Winning here will be no easy task, as they'll face Mike Mussina. "The Moose" went 11-10 in '07 with a career-high 5.15 ERA. When he opened '08 with a 1-3 mark in his first four starts and a 5.76 ERA, most felt "it was just a matter of time." However, he's surprised everyone by going 16-4 over his next 25 starts (team was 19-6) from April 23 through September 2. He has been hit hard in his last two starts (11 IP / 15 hits / 9 ERs / 7.36 ERA) but he's 17-9 (3.63 ERA) on the year and the Yanks are 20-11 in his starts. This will be his final start of the year in Yankee Stadium (which closes at the end of '08) and he's won five straight home starts against the White Sox. Chicago will start Javier Vazquez (12-13, 4.13 ERA), who will be pitching on just three days rest, after starting Game 1 of Sunday's doubleheader with the Tigers. That's not good news, as the White Sox need innings from their starters right now, as the team's bullpen is 1-1 with a 11.50 ERA in its last eight appearances. Advantage New York and Mussina. Las Vegas Insider on the NY Yankees.

Good Luck...Larry

Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 11:48 AM
Big Al McMordie

Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Houston Astros

Add the Houston Astros' 24-year-old righthander Alberto Arias' name to the list of young pitchers who have made an big initial impression this season switching from reliever to starter for his team. Arias was plugged into the rotation for injured starter Wandy Rodriguez as they opted to keep spot starter Chris Sampson in the bullpen. And Arias took full advantage of his first Major League start at home against Pittsburgh on September 8, giving up no runs on only two hits with six strikeouts over five innings. Keeping guys like Sampson in the bullpen allows Houston to give a youngster like Arias an abbreviated start without having to worry about their relievers ruining it for him. Houston probably wishes the season had started after the All-Star Break as it has been firing on all cylinders in the 2nd half. It's winning situations like this that can give young starters like Arias the confidence they need as they progress forward to perhaps become a full-time rotation member. Florida's 24-year-old lefty Scott Olsen hadn't won a game in nine straight starts heading into his last appearance on Friday, but he finally got the monkey off his back in that game. But it took a start against the lowly Washington Nationals to put Olsen back on the winning track. Look for Houston to put Olsen back in the loss column tonight. Take the Astros.

Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 11:49 AM
Ben Burns

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Under

Maholm has been tough at home all season. In fact, he's gone 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 15 starts here. The 'under' was 8-6-1 in those games. He'll face a Dodger lineup which has really struggled to score runs during the daytime. Indeed, the Dodgers have seen the 'under' go 26-18 when playing during the afternoon and they've averaged a mere 3.7 runs in those games, while hitting just .251. As for the Pirates, they haven't hit particularly well vs. southpaws (.248 average, 4.4 rpg) and they'll be at the disadvantage of facing Kershaw for the first time. Last time out, Kershaw allowed just four hits and one run through six innings at Coors Field. That game finished well below the total with a final score of 5-1. Given that Kershaw has a much better ERA during the day than he does at night, I won't be surprised if this afternoon's game proves to be relatively low-scoring once again. Consider the UNDER (1*)

Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 04:28 PM
Ben Burns

**MAJOR MISMATCH** Burns PERSONAL FAVORITE

Tampa Bay Rays $ line -155 vs Minnesota, 9/18/2008 7:10:00 PM:

I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. The Rays have been better than the Twins this season. They also come in as the hotter team. Additionally, they've been exceptional at home all year long AND they should have a significant advantage on the mound. Shields gets the call for the Rays and he's 9-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 16 home starts this season. The Rays were an extremely profitable 14-2 (+11.6) in those games. Shields' last start came at Yankee Stadium and he shut out the Yankees through eight complete innings. He allowed only five hits (6 K's, 0 walks) and the Rays won by a score of 7-1. In his last home start, Shields allowed just one run through seven complete innings en route to earning a 10-4 victory. Overall, he has a terrific 1.57 ERA and 0.913 WHIP his last three starts. Conversely, Perkins has a terrible 8.56 ERA and 2.121 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he has a poor 4.91 ERA in 11 road starts. His last start came at Baltimore and he allowed six runs in just three innings. The Twins bailed him out in that game and he escaped with a no-decision. His teammates aren't likely to provide Perkins with that type of run support vs. Shields though. It should also be noted that Tampa Bay should have a decided edge in the relief department. Heading into yesterday's action, the Rays' bullpen had a combined 2.95 ERA and 1.117 WHIP at home. On the other hand, the Twins' relievers had a combined 5.53 ERA and 1.579 WHIP on the road. For the season, the Twins are 34-44 on the road while the Rays are 55-22 at home. The Rays have regained their confidence and come off back-to-back momentum-building victories over the Red Sox. The Twins just got swept by the Indians and are still likely feeling the effects of a devastating extra-inning loss on Tuesday which saw them rally from a 7-run deficit only to see closer Joe Nathan serve up the first game-winning home run of his career. The Rays have been outstanding as home favorites in this range this season and given all their advantages, I feel that the current price is very fair.

Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 04:50 PM
Ben Burns | CFB Total
double-dime bet304 Colorado / 303 West Virginia Under 57.0 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on West Virginia and Colorado to finish UNDER the total. With Bill Stewart taking over for Rich Rodriguez, the Mountaineers changed up their offensive philosophy this season. The primary change has been a larger percentage of pass plays, a shift from power to finesse. Normally, a higher percentage of passing plays would lead to higher-scoring games. However, the 'old' Mountaineers already had a very potent attack. In fact, they scored 28 or more points in 11 of their 13 games last season. The current offensive players are still used to the old system though and if their last game is any indication, they haven't adjusted to the new system very well. Indeed, the Mountaineers were unable to control the ball on offense and finished with a mere three points. It was the first time they'd been held without an offensive touchdown since 2001, in Rodriguez's first year as coach. This week, they'll face a Colorado defense which brought back eight starters this season and which has allowed 20.5 points per game through the first two games, seeing the 'under' go 1-0 in their lone lined game. Looking back at the last couple of seasons and we find that the Buffaloes have seen the UNDER go 7-2 in their last nine non-conference games and 11-5 during that time when listed as underdogs. The Colorado offense has put up a reasonable amount of points thus far but both games came against weak defenses. This week, they'll face a Mountaineers' defense which will receive a boost and be fired up by the expected return of Reed Williams, who will be playing for the first time this season. Williams' return is significant, as he led the Mountaineers in tackles last season and was the defensive MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. He'll also bring valuable leadership to the defense and the entire unit should elevate its game. The Mountaineers have seen the UNDER go 7-4 the past two seasons when playing in the road favorite role. I look for those numbers to improve as tonight's game proves lower-scoring than expected. *Blue Chip

Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 05:53 PM
Root tonite..

Chairman- Yankess
Millionaire- Colorado Buffaloooos

Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 07:27 PM
spritzer
col under

Mr. IWS
09-18-2008, 07:30 PM
PPP

2% Colorado