9-21-08

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | NFL Total
triple-dime bet414 PHI / 413 PIT Under 45.0 Bodog
Analysis: We saw a big contrast in the way each of these teams played last week, as the Steelers earned a 10-6 victory at Cleveland while the Eagles lost a tough 41-37 decision at Dallas on Monday night. The public knows both are capable of putting up a lot of points, proven in Week 1 when each scored 38 in easy wins. However, I believe this will be a much lower-scoring game due to the fact that Pittsburgh's defense will limit Philly's passing game and pressure Eagles QB Donovan McNabb a lot more than he had to deal with on Monday night. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will be ready for McNabb, and I also think that his QB Ben Roethlisberger will be somewhat limited by a shoulder injury. I see both teams running the ball and the clock in a defensive struggle. That's why I'm betting the UNDER as my Triple Dime NFL Total Play O' the Month

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NFL Total
triple-dime bet394 BUF / 393 OAK Over 36.5 BetUS
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / OAKLAND RAIDERS @ BUFFALO BILLS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line is 36.5 or less

1:05pm ET / ARIZONA CARDINALS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line is 42.5 or less

1:05pm ET / CAROLINA PANTHERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line is 37 or less


TIME ZONE alert! With two qualifying games on the Sunday week three schedule, it's time to dust off one of King's FAVORITE "Over" Systems. It's already gone 1-0 so far this season. And when this scheduling situation arises, I'm "ALL IN".

NFL WESTERN time zone teams who are ROAD UNDERDOGS versus NFL EASTERN time zone teams are 20-4-1 O/U in the first half of the season over the last 4 years. This System only applies when we have a legit 3-time zone crossover... and the game MUST kick off at 1:00pm ET (the early kicks). Our only other qualifier so far in 2008 was Seattle @ Buffalo in week one (a King 3** Play). That game EASILY went OVER the total (final score 34-10). We also note that within this 20-4-1 O/U System, games involving teams from the SAME Conference are a very impressive 12-1 O/U. Both of our Best Bets are active this week (RAIDERS and CARDINALS).

Both the Raiders and the Bills are off big road UNDERDOG wins last week (vs the Jags and Chiefs respectively). That's another GREAT sign for an OVER in this week of the season.
GAME THREE teams playing off a road UNDERDOG win (Raiders) are 7-1 O/U in the last 3 years... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U when their opponent is ALSO off an UNDERDOG win (Bills).

Non-division games have a very high OVER tendency during this particular week, as well. And all THREE of our plays are of the non-divisional variety.
In the last 3 years, GAME THREE non-division home teams are 23-11-2 O/U... and 12-4 O/U if our host is taking on an opponent that's off a SU win. Our FOUR qualifiers on Sunday are: BILLS... REDSKINS... VIKINGS... and BEARS. We also note that in the last 2 years, the results are an almost=PERFECT 9-1 O/U.

The Vikings lost a game last week at home (vs the Colts) in which they STATISTICALLY should have won with ease. They held the Colts to only 25 yards rushing... and ran the ball for over 170 yards at HOME. There's only been 17 such cases in the last 20 years. And these teams have gone 13-4 O/U in their next game.... and 6-1 O/U in the last 6 years. The official query is: ANY teams (regardless of game #) playing off a SU home loss with 170+ rushing yards.
**FLIP-SIDE "Freebie": On the other hand, NFL teams that are off a SU win in which they rushed for 30 or less yards (Colts) are 1-9 O/U as favorites in their next game.

The Redskins come in off a Game One road loss to the Giants (16-7) and a Game Two home win against the Saints (29-24). I queried previous teams in the same situation, and came up with this:
7-1 O/U last 3 years: GAME THREE teams off a SUATS home favorite win... and a SUATS road loss in the game before that (Redskins).

The OU line ranges that we have chosen to play our OVERS with are pretty favorable during this week, as well. These are based on the closing OU lines in a week three game:
Last 10 years: 12-3 O/U with an OU line range of 37.5 to 38 (Vikings?)
Last 8 years: 6-1 O/U with an OU linen range of 43 to 43.5 for home favs of < 10 points (Redskins?)
Last 6 years: 10-2 O/U with an OU line range of 35.5 to 36.5 points (Bills?).

When both teams come into week three feeling good about themselves (as in a SUATS win), the results are TOP-HEAVY with high scoring results.
Since 1999, GAME THREE road dogs are 7-1 O/U when BOTH teams pare playing off a game two SU and ATS win. In the last 5 years, these teams are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. And our two qualifiers are the BILLS-RAIDERS game and REDSKINS-CARDINALS game.
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH!
Baltimore Ravens (-3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NFL Total
double-dime bet400 WAS / 399 ARI Under 43.0 Bodog
Analysis:
UNDER redskins ? Last week the Redskins gave up 24 points to the Saints but that is a bit deceiving! Washington only allowed New Orleans 16 first downs and they held them to a total of 250 yards of offense. In fact, Washington?s defensive stats are quite respectable so far this season even though they?ve allowed an average of twenty points per game. Now we get a solid match-up this week that favors the under. Washington?s game went over the total last week as did Arizona?s. However, like the Redskins, the Cardinals were actually quite respectable on defense. The Cards only allowed 10 points and 236 yards of offense to the Dolphins. The only reason the game got over is because Arizona?s offense erupted for 31 points. However, that was against a suspect Dolphins defense and now, the Cardinals will be dealing with a much more respectable defense. At the same time, Washington will be facing an Arizona defense that has been very strong this season particularly against the run. Overall, the Cardinals have allowed just 23 points and they?ve employed a bend but don?t break defense that has frustrated the opposition. Keep in mind that when these teams last met the Redskins scored 19 points but a lot of that was due to two interceptions. Washington only had ten first downs and only 160 yards against the Cards in that game. Coming into this game, the Redskins offense is still trying to adjust to their new schemes under a new coaching staff. Yes, they were able to put up solid numbers against the Saints last week but that defense has struggled badly so far this season. Also, New Orleans was without three starters on defense last week! The Saints also struggled in the heat and humidity last week as they?re a dome team. In other words look for the Redskins to find the yardage much tougher to come by this week. Also, the Cardinals blitz a lot and run a lot schemes on defense that will be tough on Redskins QB Campbell. While we respect the Skins defense, we also know the Cardinals defense will be heard from in this game too. That?s why the play here is the UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky Sund@y
4* Jville
5* pitt/phily Under
4* cleve Balt Under

Monday
4* NYJets

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock:

NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars

Tennessee Titans -4.5 ( 1* )

Baltimore Ravens -2 ( 1* )

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet394 BUF -9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 393 OAK
Analysis: I took the Bills in the week 1, where they slaughtered Seattle at home. Then in the following week, I took them once again as road dogs at Jacksonville, where they won the game outright, in a game played in very tough conditions for them, due to very high temperatures. This team can be an outsider this season, especially with the Patriots being without Brady for the season. The Bills still doesn't have the trust and the respect of the bettors and even though they are a 9,5 home favorites for this game, I think we have enough value in here to take them once again. They will face the Raiders this season and I must say I'm not impressed with the Raiders at all.

Oakland is coming from a road win at Kansas by 23-8, but the Chiefs aren't exactly a powerful team, far away from that! Even against a weak opponent and controlling the line of scrimmage, the team couldn't do nothing in their passing game, just limited themselves to be a unidimensional offensive team by just running the ball, with their QB JaMarcus Russell completing only 6-17 passes for 55 yards, while having an awful 45.0 rating. If you remember in the week 1 against Denver, Russell had also a terrible performance, completely shut down until the Raiders trailed by 34-0; earning nine of his 17 completions in the fourth quarter. So, the Raiders will once again depend their rushing offense, where they had a very good performance against the Chiefs with 300 rushing yards, with their RB's Darren McFadden and Michael Bush in a good level. However McFadden is currently with a toe problem and he won't be at 100% for this game.

However the Bills are a much improved team this season, not only in the offense, but in every sector. Just remember the Bills played last week against the Jaguars, who were the second best team in running the football last season and they had a great performance in terms of run defense, holding Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to 66 yards on 21 carries. Already in their home games against the Seahawks, they had held their opponents to 85 rushing yards and jusr four yards per carry. QB Trent Edwards had a good performance against Seattle, but he was even better against the Jaguars, not only because of his great TD pass late in the game to give the win to his team, but also he went the game with 20-25 80% completions and a QB rating of 119.8! The offense continues with different solutions, which will cause problems to the Raiders. Just remember Oakland suffered 41 points against Denver at home in the week one, the only good offensive team they have faced until now this season.

The spot for Oakland for this game is terrible and their headcoach Lane Kiffin is on the verge of getting fired, according to the local press. Also the Raiders are a west coast team and they had to travel 3 time zones to play an early game in the East Coast (10AM for them), which is the ultimate bad spot for a team in the NFL. With all these facts, I think it's clearly possible for the Bills to get a double digits points win in here. They have already beaten Seattle at home by 34-10 this season and today against a team with several problems, I expect an easy win for the Bills in here. Take Buffalo.

Sun, 09/21/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet400 WAS -3.0 (-115) Bodog vs 399 ARI
Analysis: Arizona is in my opinion the most overrated team in the league after the first two weeks of the season. The team has won their first two games, QB Kurt Warner comes from a game where he had a great performance, with 361 yards and 3 TD for a QB rating of 158.3 and everybody is saying that he is back to his best and the Cardinals are a serious contender for the postseason. However let's make things clear. The team won at San Francisco by 23-13, but they were outplayed by the 49ers. The Cardinals ended that game with less 6 yards than the Niners, however they were able to take advantage of the turnovers of San Francisco to get the win. Last week, Arizona defeated at home the Dolphins by 31-10, with a differential of +200 passing yards and +9 rushing yards. However I have to ask: is there any team in the league which can't beat the Dolphins right now?

Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are putting up huge receiving numbers, but remember that Miami was coming from a game where they suffered 20 points against a weak offense of the Jets and the Niners suffered 30 points against Seattle, so even though there is merit on the Cards offense, the truth is that their opponents were far from being tough, unlike Washington.

The Redskins after an horrible first half against the Giants, they held the Giants to zero points and last week against a power club (New Orleans), they didn't allow any point in the final quarter of the game, which was the weakest link of the team last season.

On Sunday, the defense limited the high-octane New Orleans Saints to seven points on their five second-half series, allowing the offense to rally for a 29-24 victory. What's more, that touchdown came on the first possession after halftime. The Saints had three first downs and 58 yards on their four drives the rest of the way.

"We come in at halftime, and the coaches really emphasize where we made our mistakes," said middle linebacker London Fletcher, who leads the Redskins with 24 tackles. "It's not like we're changing a lot of things. We're just executing them better in the second half. We're doing a great job of making those adjustments."

So I expect a lot of problems of the offense of the Cardinals in this game. The offense of the Redskins was horrible in his game against the Giants, but the fact the team had some extra days to prepare their last week's game against the Saints helped them a lot, as the Redskins looked like another team last week, with QB Jason Campbell being much more comfortable on his task of commanding the west coast offensive scheme of the Redskins. Numbers don't lie and between the game against the Giants and the Saints, he improved from 133 passing yards to 321, from 55.6% completions to 66.7% and from a 81.3 QB rating to a 104.1 rating. The team did quite well on both running and passing, with Clinton Portis still being an upper level running back. The Redskins ended the game against the Saints with 149 rushing yards, while at the same time, WR Santana Moss is back to his game-breaker position, finishing last week's game with 164 yards for 7 catches and 1 TD.

Another important fact for this game has to go with the factor I've told you in my pick on the Bills: the Cardinals had to travel across three time zones, with this game being played at an early start time. The team has an offensive game very based on passing as we've seen and playing so early, the Cards will have to deal with a very hard spot this week. I expect a win for the Redskins in here, as the Cardinals are clearly overrated right now, so we have the opportunity to bet on Washington this week with a very good line. Take the Redskins in here.


Sun, 09/21/08 - 8:15 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet419 DAL -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 420 GBP
Analysis: There were a lot of doubts about the Packers this season, after Favre left and Rodgers took his place on the team. Suddenly, the Packers are 2-0, nobody remembers that Favre used to be the team's QB and some people even dare to say that Rodgers is an even better version of Favre. He had a very efficient performance against the Vikings, with 171 yards and 1 TD for a 115.5 QB rating and in his last game against the Lions, he had an even better performance with 3 TD and 328 yards for a 117 QB rating. For this SNF game, the oddmakers put the Packers as a 3 points home underdog and the question I put for this game is to know if the Packers are a superbowl contender team or not. We all know Dallas is a contender, the question is to know if the Packers are also at that level.

Everybody is talking about the offense of the Packers, but very few people comment on their defense. The team suffered 19 points against the Vikings, where they were completely dominated in the second half and we even watched a TD pass from Tavaris Jackson (who knew that was possible?!) and last week, the team had a 21-0 lead and allowed the Lions to rally back to the back and even taking a 25-24 lead, before screwing everything up with two turnovers, which originated in two touchdows for the Packers. What these two games prove is that the Packers have been struggling in the defense and against a team like Dallas, this will have to be a major concern for them. Dallas scored 28 points on the road against Cleveland and 41 last week at home against the Eagles. Tony Romo had a terrible mistake in that game, which prevented us to cash Dallas on the spread, but he still finished with 312 yards, 70% in completions and 3 TD besides that interception. The offense of the Cowboys is extremely powerful and their offensive line is probably the best in the whole league. The Packers, like most teams, will start off the game at a disadvantage because of the size of the Cowboys' offensive line, which averages 6 foot 6 and 323.8 pounds across the front. The Packers, when situational pass rusher Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is added to the mix, goes only 6-3 1/2 and 293.8. It's also important to refer that Dallas is the only team in the league (with two games played) which is yet to see their QB getting sacked, which is a proof how Romo has all the time and space in the world to command the offense of his team.

On the other side, I expect a better effort from the defense of the Cowboys, after having suffered 37 points in last week's MNF against the Eagles. Surely a team who wants to win the superbowl can't allow 37 points in a game. The RB of the Packers Ryan Grant had a weak performance against the Lions, with just 20 yards in 15 attempts (1,3 yards per attempt). So, the team will depend a lot from their passing game and the defensive line of the Cowboys is very strong, as they showed against the Eagles by sacking NcNabb four times during the game.

Dallas went 7-1 SU on the road last season and when they were a small fav or dog [-3, +3], the team went 4-0 ATS. This is a National TV game and I expect a statement from Dallas in here. The fact that the Cowboys are a small favorite in this game gives them value and remember the Packers are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. So, I'm taking Dallas in here.

Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:15 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet417 CLE 3.0 (-120) Bodog vs 418 BAL
Analysis:
The Browns are coming to this season with great expectations, after a 10-6 record last season. But the truth is that after two weeks, the Browns may be heading to a 0-3 hole and then, all of the expectations would be ended right away. They lost at home twice, even though both games were really tough, as they faced Dallas and Pittsburgh, losing by 10-28 and 6-10. This week they come to Baltimore to face the Ravens.

The Ravens had an unexpected bye, as their game at Houston against the Texans was postponed, due to the hurricane Ike. The team defeated the Bengals in the week 1 at home by 17-10, but we had the confirmation last week that the Bengals are in fact horrible (lost at home by 7-24 against the Titans), so this win isn't exactly a proof that they are very good. The Ravens had just 129 passing yards, confirming the struggles that everybody was expecting from rookie QB Joe Flacco, who ended the game with 15/29 and a QB rating of just 63.7! The team is uni-dimensional, counting just with running the football to make some damage. They had 46 (!) carries against the Bengals for 229 yards. So if Cleveland is able to stop the running game of the Ravens and obligate Flacco to throw the ball, then Baltimore will surely struggle in the offense. We also have the factor of the bye week the Ravens had last week. In theory a bye is a synonym of advantage for the team who rests, as the team will have an extra week to rest and prepare their following game. The problem is that uses to happen much later in the season and not in the second week of the league. So, the Ravens won't be able to take advantage of it that much. Actually it's the opposite, as the teams need to compete early in the season to gain rhythm and automatisms and that's something the Ravens are lacking right now.

Cleveland is the underdog for the third time this season, but for this game the scenario is much different, as the Ravens are far from the level of the Cowboys and the Steelers. Defensive nose tackle Kelly Gregg will be out against for the Ravens and that will help Jamal Lewis and the running game of the Browns. Braylon Edwards is far from his level last season, but he has been motivated by the whole team this week and I expect him to come to his normal level this season, which sent him to the pro bowl last season.

The spot for Cleveland in here is a desperate team, which will give everything in this game. They are also a very motivated team, after all also the Giants started the season with a 0-2 record and ended up winning the superbowl and there is that feeling inside the club.

Defensive lineman Shaun Smith said : "We are that caliber type of team (like the Giants)?We're a good team. We're just trying to get over the hump.

So I'm taking the underdog in here. Take Cleveland.



Also:



1* unit 6.5 Pt Teaser: Buffalo Bills (-3) x Pittsburgh/Philadelphia Under 51.5 @ -120 Bodog

[Mr. IWS]

Carlo Campanella

Surprising everyone, Jacksonville has opened the season up at 0-2 while losing both games as Favorites. Now they head winless to Indianapolis (1-1) for their first Division game of the season, against the team that is the reigning Division champs. This is an extremely high pressure situation for Jacksonville, as this is a road game against a Division opponent and the first time they find themselves in the Dog role this year! Thats a lot to overcome, especially against a team as talented as Indianapolis, so well lay the points knowing that Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS against a Division foe in the first meeting of the season series and the line is 5 points or less since they revamped the AFC South to a 4-team Division. While its surprising that Jacksonville hasnt won a game yet, its also surprising that the Colts are just 1-1 and the win was by just a field goal! With 2 games under their belts, the Colts will turn things around with an explosive game as we find them at 8-0 AST hosting a Division opponent when its the first of back-to-back Division battles!

7* Play On Indianapolis

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE Playbook Best Bets


MARC LAWRENCE Playbook

NFL Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
ARIZONA CARDINALS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 42


NFL Best Bet 4 (1-1, 50%)
HOUSTON TEXANS +5
DETROIT LIONS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 46.5




3* NO Saints, Titans over
4* Hou Texans, SF 49ers over
5* Car Panthers, Redskins over



* BEST BET
The Vikings were many a ?Wise Guys? choice to win the NFC North Division while making their way to the playoffs. A strengthened defense with a powerful running game made for solid reasoning. Missing from the
equation, though, is a quarterback. When they go down this week it?s safe to say Tarvaris Jackson will be carrying a clipboard sooner than later. The Jackson experiment aside, the Panthers have capitalized on the return of QB Jake Delhomme, vaulting to a 2-0 start sans the services of his best WR Steven Smith. Like the Terminator, Smith?s back this week and these Cats are lovin? it. The most mind-boggling stat of all is at work here as Carolina is 20-1 ATS as a non-division road dog against .550 or less opposition in their franchise history, including 20 wins in a row! With Game Three winless favorites of less than 5 points just 3-19-2 ATS since 1990, you?d be wise to join the guys who realize Carolina is a live Road Cat!

Carolina over MINNESOTA by 10



4* BEST BET
Thanks to Ike the Texans will tackle the Titans with the benefi t of an extra wink of rest. And if you are winless in the NFL, that?s a nice handicapping combination. That?s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this league that have yet to win a game are 32-19-1 ATS when taking points with the benefi t of an extra week to prepare. More important, Houston needs this game like blood given Tennessee?s 2-0 start to the season. Jeff Fisher wears a label as a good dog. When laying points against winless teams he is just 2-6 ATS in his NFL career, including 1-6 as a single-digit favorite. Titans drop to 1-7 ATS as September chalk against avenging division foes here today. Texans get back in the mix of things today.

Houston over TENNESSEE by 7




3* BEST BET
Intent on making more than a point, the man on a mission stamped
himself with a stirring two-point conversion to steal last week?s game
away from San Diego. Mike Shanahan?s job this week will be to keep his
team at the same level they were during the Charger game. That may be
a problem considering the Broncos are in the middle of a season opening
division sandwich. To that extent they are 0-8 ATS in this role (division
games before and after with a non-division game in the middle). They are
also just 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Saints will gladly comply, sporting a 7-0 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points off a loss when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS victory. With New Orleans boss Sean Payton 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog against .500 or better opposition, look for venue to turn into Mile Sigh today.
New Orleans over DENVER by 7

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Cleveland at Baltimore
Time: 4:15 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Cleveland (+3 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: September 21, 2008 @ 6:59:49 AM EDT
2* (Top Play) Cleveland Browns (+) @ Baltimore @ 4:15 ET – Yes, the Browns have some injury issues here but so do the Ravens. Also, it’s the “other issues” with the Ravens that are giving us some fantastic line value here. First off, they had an unwelcome bye last week because of their game with the Texans getting postponed. With that postponement, Baltimore also lost any momentum they had from Week One. In their opening game of the season they did beat the Bengals but that is what is also giving us line value here. People are talking about how solid the Ravens looked in Week One but they played a team that is off to a horrific start and Cincinnati has looked downright “soft” so far this season. Contrast that with the Browns schedule! Sure, they’re 0-2 and sure they have had some issues with getting totally overwhelmed by Dallas in Week One and making costly mistakes in Week Two’s loss versus Pittsburgh. However, therein lies the key with this match-up. The Browns have played two of the top teams in the league and, in last week’s game, they truly did have a great shot at the outright win as a home dog versus the Steelers. They were simply done in by some costly mistakes.


Speaking of mistakes, we’ll still gladly take Derek Anderson of the Browns over Joe Flacco of the Ravens. The Browns QB is off to an unsettled start this season but he’s had to face two straight tough defense while Flacco faced a weak Bengals defense in his only appearance. Yes, Anderson is once again dealing with a tough Ravens defense this week but this is still an aging unit that is not quite as solid as it once was. The Browns offense does have the weapons to take advantage and their injury issues are certainly not significant enough to scare us off of this game. What we foresee happening here is the Ravens coming in a little too confident after their Week One win and they also lose their ‘edge’ after last week’s unplanned bye. Conversely, the Browns will come into this game with a head full of steam as this team always gets up for playing the Ravens, the team that bolted Cleveland in the middle of the night to head east to Baltimore years ago.

The Browns are 0-2 on the season and need this win and we feel they will catch the Ravens a little off-guard here. This is very significant because the Browns offense is absolutely capable of jumping out to an early lead here and the Ravens are not built well to play catch up football. QB Flacco is still inexperienced and he’s dealing with a hungry Browns defense that played a solid “bend but don’t break” style versus the Steelers last week. The Browns are 5-1 against the spread after facing Pittsburgh and a lot of that has to do with a “step down in class” after facing a tough Steelers team. That is the case again in this particular instance and we look for the outright road win for the Browns! Play Cleveland plus the points as a Top Play selection.

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy Rider | NFL Side
triple-dime bet394 BUF -9.5 (-110) BetUS vs 393 OAK
Analysis:
***3 UNIT INSIDE THE HUDDLE PLAY***

I just got off the phone with one of my Insiders from the Bay Area. They told me the Raiders had a terrible week of practice and their flight landed an hour later than expected. This is already a mentally weak team to start. They are brat up, in disaray and had to travel six hours to lovely Buffalo. Bills roll at home.


Sun, 09/21/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Money Line
dime bet394 BUF (-120)BetUS vs 393 OAK
Analysis:
*THIS IS A TWO TEAM 6-POINT TEASER*



*1.5 UNITS*

49ers +1 and Bills -3.5

Sun, 09/21/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet404 CHI -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 403 TAM
Analysis: This is a **2 UNIT Play** Analysis to come on the Bears -3.

Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:15 PMTommy Rider | NFL Total
double-dime bet414 PHI / 413 PIT Under 45.0 Bodog
Analysis: This is a **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come on Pitt/Philly UNDER 45

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Gabrielle

Last Week: Jimmie Johnson could only manage a second-place finish for us, and the Gibbs cars were never really contenders (though they did manage top 10s), which means we didn't come away from Loudon happy. We lost the 0.5 units we wagered, but on the season we're still sitting at a profit of 5.19 units on 34.5 units wagered, a return of 15%. We've also given you a winning week in 19 of 26 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost three units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 12.73 units on 99 units wagered, a return of 12.9%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)

Take Carl Edwards (+500), 1/6th unit. This week, it's back to the Monster Mile in Dover. In three Car of Tomorrow events at this track, Edwards has finished third, first and second, and considering he won at Bristol just a few weeks ago, I'd say King Carl has got this racing-on-concrete thing figured out. He's currently the points co-leader, and while there's something of a jinx there (in the four-year history of the Chase for the Championship, no leader coming into Dover has been the leader leaving Dover), I think Edwards has a chance to be dominant Sunday.

Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. The Shrub didn't fare well at Loudon, squandering the lead he spent the entire "regular season" building when his rear swaybar cracked. However, Busch only knows one speed: breakneck. He'll be back among the contenders on Sunday, not playing it one ounce of conservative as he seeks to repeat his Monster Mile win from back in June. I say he's got a really great chance of doing it.

Take Greg Biffle (+800), 1/6th unit. Yes, I actually do believe the Chase could begin with a back-to-back winner. I actually consider Biffle's win at Loudon last week something of a shocker: he'd finished 31st, 13th and 21st in three COT races at the Miracle Mile. By comparison, his COT finishes at Dover (sixth, second and third) look downright amazing. Like his teammate Edwards, The Biff is also very good at Bristol in the "new car," and I give him a very good chance of hitting on the right setup again on Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio | NFL Total
double-dime bet408 SEA / 407 STL Under 44.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Play Under St. Louis/Seattle at 4:05 ET. This is easily the least asthetically pleasing game on the entire board. St. Louis is hoping that going against a Seattle defense that has allowed an average of 33.5 PPG in its L5 will help get its offense on track. Wrong! St. Louis' offense will actually help Seattle get on track as the Rams are averaging just 8 PPG through the first two weeks. Seattle scored nearly double that last week and get to face a defense that has already yielded 79 points this season. However, Matt Hasselbeck is pretty horrible 35-77 passing this year and has no recievers. Normally, we'd be worried about 5 Seahawks TO's this year, but St. Louis has no takeaways. What's likely to happen here is that Seattle gets up early and plays ball control the rest of the way. Under St. Louis/Seattle is our 20* NFC Total of the Month

[Mr. IWS]

Players of America


Today's Selections


DET vs. SF
Sport: NFL
Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Play: Detroit Lions +5.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup: N/A


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CIN vs. NYG
Sport: NFL
Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants
The Play: Cincinnati Bengals +13.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


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CLE vs. BAL
Sport: NFL
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Play: Cleveland Browns +1.5
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


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DAL vs. GB
Sport: NFL
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
The Play: Dallas Cowboys -3.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | NFL Side
triple-dime bet400 WAS -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 399 ARI
Analysis: Stan has Bet Washington again this Sunday. This team will be much better than last years team and is currently under valued by the Vegas oddsmaker's. This team will just keep getting better each week. Arizona is 2-0 but haven't played anyone yet. TAKE WASHINGTON as STAN'S EARLY SEASON NFL BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

Sebastian
20* Hou
30* Jax
30* NO
50* KC
20* Tease NE & DAL/GB under
250* Det on the spread
50* Det on the money line

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Kansas City/Atlanta Over 36
Kansas City will start Tyler Thigpen today and it appears that thinks are looking bad for the Chiefs however the still have Larry Johnson running the ball and something tells me Damon Huard might get back on the field in a winnable game against a young Falcons team. The problem the Chiefs will have today will be their defense. Surtain is out which will open up more passing for Matt Ryan backed up with a good dosage of Michael Turner. Atlanta has the capability to score 30 points today. Both of these teams matchup great offensively against a smaller and injured defense. Take the Over.

Cincinnati/NY Giants Over 41.5
I feel bad for the Bengals defense. The Giants will be able to do whatever they want offensively today and should physically man handle the Bengals. Every time the Giants score they have to give the ball back to one of the most underachieving offenses in the history of the NFL. The Bengals are loaded with talent on offense and should get plenty of chances today to put up points on a young Giants defense. Look for both teams to score in bunches. Take the Over.

Vikings -3 over Panthers
Minnesota is wasting no time in benching Tavaris Jackson. Good move! This team has a new QB in the veteran Gus Frerotte, two receivers that are banged up and Adrian Peterson a question mark to play and still are three point favorites. There is a reason why Vegas sets a line likes this. The public is playing all of their bets on the Panthers. If is very rare to see this kind of money coming in on the underdog. For Carolina they get big playmaker Steve Smith back today and things are looking good for this team. This game will not be won on offense, but with the defense of the Minnesota Vikings. This team is in desperation mode and will pressure Delhomme and the Panthers all day. Take the Vikings.

Rams +9.5 over Seahawks
It is as bad as you will ever see it for the Seattle offense. This team has their top six receivers out. It will also not get as bad for this Rams team who in all fairness played two of the best teams in the NFL to open the season which have a lot more talent. St. Louis still has veteran players on offense and Marc Bulger seems to play well against Seattle. Forget about what the Rams can do this game is more about what Seattle cant do. The Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren announced this is his last season as a coach and this team has no real path to travel as the future doesn't look good. One side note is Rams kicker Josh Brown used to play in Seattle which will help him in the FG department and something tells me the Rams will need a lot of those this year. The line value is too good to pass up here. Take the Rams.

Jaguars +4.5 over Colts
Payton Manning has not looked himself at all this year and he is going to get introduced to a fierce Jaguars defensive line. This is big and will put pressure on him as it should slow down the running game. Jacksonville always plays the Colts tight and should wear down the Colts defense as the have a significant size advantage. The Jaguars are still having some offensive line issues and injuries at wide receiver, but without Bob Sanders in the lineup for the Colts and his backup questionable the Jaguars surely will take their shots down the field once they soften the Colts up with their good running game. The level of talent is shifting in this division and Jacksonville with a win today can make them king of the mountain. Take the Jaguars.

College Football
No plays today.

Major League Baseball
Phillies -115 over Marlins
Moyer/Volstad

[Mr. IWS]

LENNY STEVENS
20* SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF MONTH
GREEN BAY

10*
buffalo
washington
san francisco

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast Full Service Line
Pro Play Of Week Ariz Cards, Afc Play Of Week Colts

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES


Note from Steve Budin -

The price on Philadelphia has been steady for days at 3 1/2 points.

If you get Philadelphia at 3 1/2, buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get a push with a field goal victory.

Obviously, if the line is -4, no action is necessary.

[Mr. IWS]

Dave M@linsky

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK:4* CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE Under

After playing some of the highest scoring games of any team in the NFL LY, the Browns have opened with a pair of dead Under’s. Yes, the weather in Cleveland on Sunday night played a big part, but there is more to it than those conditions, and we believe that the markets are still not in the right place with this team.

Derek Anderson was thought of as being little more than a journeyman QB before those early-season explosions in 2007. The addition of Jamal Lewis was not considered to be all that major, because he was getting on in years and appeared to have lost a step. But after that surprising beginning to the campaign the wheels came off for Anderson, Lewis and the entire offense down the stretch, and this season has started the same way. Anderson sports a 57.1 passer rating, with only one touchdown pass in 56 attempts, while Lewis has mustered just 3.1 per attempt overland, which includes a 24 yard run. Take that burst away, and he is at 76 yards in 31 carries. Ouch. And yes, those numbers came against quality defenses, but the Baltimore unit that they face this week is even better, and our sources tell us that the Browns are likely to be without both Braylon Edwards and Donte Stallworth. That makes it even more difficult to stretch the field to open running room for Lewis, and it means another long day for the offense.

The flip side is that we do believe the Cleveland defense will be much tougher up front over the course of the season with the added presence of Shaun Rogers, and he is a significant factor against a Baltimore team that will try to work between the tackles as much as possible, taking pressure away from Joe Flacco. The Ravens ran the ball on 61.3 percent of their snaps in that opening win over Cincinnati, and many of the passes that were thrown was short ball-control tosses, with six of Flacco’s 15 completions going to the running backs. The focus here will be much more on managing the game and avoiding early mistakes, instead of trying to make plays, and that helps to set the proper early tone for a game that we believe never will speed up.

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin O’Neill The Max


Erik Scheponik NFL (1-0, 100%)
CLEVELAND BROWNS/BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 38.5


Dave Fobare NFL (0-1, 0%)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4.5


Kevin O’Neill NFL (0-2, 0%)
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5


Matty Baiungo NFL (2-0, 100%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Side
double-dime bet400 WAS -3.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 399 ARI
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **


Sun, 09/21/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total
double-dime bet398 NYG / 397 CIN Under 42.0 Bodog
Analysis:
** 2* TOTAL **



We highly suggest waiting until much closer to kick-off to make this wager...because all of the books we have spoken to so far have all Confirmed that this Total is one of the 3 most bet so far...with almost all of the money coming in on the OVER, and it isn't "Steam"...I am really hoping that the betting public can push this one up to 43 if the books get confident the sharps won't come in and Buy the Under...So go ahead and wait with us, because 43 is just such a KEY NFL Number...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning:
kc - playmaker
balt- reg.
gbay-reg

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel:
norl- 20*
gbay-reg.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club Pro FB
6 units Bears -3
5 units UNDER 38.5 Browns/Ravens
4 units Eagles -3
4 units Carolina +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

kelso
high rollers baseball 10 unit - white sox

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3 Unit Play. #106 Take Washington over Arizona (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The NFL is all about parity and with Arizona entering this game 2-0, expect them to come back to reality and leave the nation’s capital with a 2-1 record. The Red Skins offense came alive last week against New Orleans and expect them to have success against Arizona as well. The Cardinals had a very easy schedule to open 2008 winning in San Francisco and beating Miami at home. QB Warner will come back to reality on the road as Washington takes care of business, as they need this victory in order to stay competitive in the NFC East. Washington 24, Arizona 17.

[Mr. IWS]

special K

SUPER k 20 over gb- dallas game

[Mr. IWS]

EZWinners

3* Minn, Hou, Phil
2* KC
1* KC moneyline

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

Chairman
10 units Packers +3
10 units Pack/Cowboys UNDER 51.5
5 units Parlay both above

Best Bets
5 units Carolina +3
4 units Arizona +3
3 units Oak/Bills UNDER 36.5

[Mr. IWS]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

1 STAR: (958) ATLANTA (+$111) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $111)
12:35PM Central Time

1 STAR: (976) KANSAS CITY (+$130) over Chicago
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $130)
1:10PM Central Time

[Mr. IWS]

Heisman Trophy Club

10 Arizona
10 TB
10 Cinn
10 Detriot

[Mr. IWS]

meyer

raiders - playbook
saints - live dog
jaguars - locker room
browns - consensus
vikings - chalkboard

[Mr. IWS]

kelso 75 unit parlay
25 units Philly
25 units Atlanta
25 units parlay above

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4.5



Opposite Action Plays

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1

[Mr. IWS]

SCORE
500% BUFFALO

300% each
denver
green bay

[Mr. IWS]

HSW Early: 5* Wash; add Minn and Pitt for the 3TM P
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Nsa

20* Redskins
10* Panthers
10* Jaguars
10* Eagles
10* Seahawks
10* Bears
10* Angels