9-23-08

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

(975) NYY Yankees
(976) TOR Blue Jays
Take "(975) NYY Yankees"
Toronto had a nice late season run, but it's all over, losing 7 of 12 games. The offense has really cooled off. They take on a Yankees team that, with the pressure off, is playing excekkebt baseball. NY just won 8 of 9 games to close out Yankee stadium. The pitching has been very good and now their top pitcher of the season goes, Mike Mussina (18-9) who has a shot at 20 wins. He's had little trouble with the Blue Jays this season (3.09 ERA), and liftime he's 24-12 against them. Toronto starter Jesse Litsch has faced the Bronx Bombers twice this season.....and got bombed, with an 0-2 record and a 7.88 ERA. They've pounded him for 17 hits in 8 innings. In fact, in 21 career innings he's allowed 40 NY base runners! Have to back the hot team with the far motivated starter. Play the Yankees.

[Mr. IWS]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

5 STAR: (982) SEATTLE (+$128) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $500 to win $640)
9:10PM Central Time

2 STAR: (957) PITTSBURGH (+$178) over Milwaukee
(Listing Karstens only)
(Risking $200 to win $356)
6PM Central Time

2 STAR: (973) KANSAS CITY (-$114) over Detroit
(Listing Greinke only)
(Risking $228 to win $200)
6:05PM Central Time

2 STAR: (980) MINNESOTA (-$129) over Chicago
(Listing Baker only)
(Risking $258 to win $200)
7:10PM Central Time

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

(959) CIN Reds
(960) HOU Astros
Take "(959) CIN Reds"
Edinson Volquez has had a great season and while he hasn't been as dominant since the break as he was in the early portion of the campaign, he's still very tough. Wandy Rodriguez is less than 100% physically and doesn't figure to go more than five or six innings here. The 'Stros are still alive but I see them taking a crucial loss tonight. The Reds are the choice.

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet980 MIN (-135)BetUS vs 979 CWS
Analysis: White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has used motivational tactics all season in an effort to get the most out of his players. However, I believe he may have made one critical mistake during the final week of the season in calling out starting pitcher Javier Vazquez for not being a big-game pitcher heading into a key three-game series against the Twins. Vazquez will pitch in the series opener on Tuesday and doesn't seem fazed by Guillen's comments. "I'm not looking to have to change minds if people feel that way," Vazquez said. "I won't be paying attention to that. If I do well or if I don't, I'll still go home at the end of my career and be the same person." Guillen has a valid point, but I think his comments will backfire on him in this spot. Vazquez is just 1-4 with a 5.68 ERA during his career at the Metrodome and 5-8 away from home this season with a 4.85 ERA. He got hammered in his last road start at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, surrendering seven runs and six hits in a season-low 3.2 innings on only three days of rest. The Twins are 5-1 vs. Chicago at home this year and will be sending Scott Baker to the mound. Baker is 3-1 in 10 home starts with a 3.28 ERA and got a no-decision in his last start against the White Sox back on July 31, resulting in an eventual 10-6 victory. Minnesota needs to win this game to have a shot at taking over first place with a sweep, so bet the Twins as my Triple Dime AL Game O' the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet978 TEX (-134)Bodog vs 977 OAK
Analysis:
TEXAS ? This is a huge series for the Rangers and A?s. On the surface, it may not seem like it because both Texas and Oakland have been eliminated from playoff contention. However, make no mistake about it, both of these teams are fully focused on finishing in second place in the AL West. Each team wants that spot and they know to make serious inroads toward it they need to take care of business in this series. Though I am typing up this analysis prior to the completion of Monday night?s game, I do know that no matter what happens in that game, the Rangers and Athletics will be separated by no more than a game and a half in the standings heading into Tuesday. Plus, if Oakland wins Monday?s game then they will only be separated by a half game in the standings. Either way, the rest of this series means a lot to each team and, in the case of Tuesday?s game, the Rangers have a big pitching edge. Oakland is handing the ball to Josh Outman for Tuesday night?s game. The left-hander just turned 24 about a week ago and he?s struggled so far at the MLB level. This will be just his fifth game (and third start) and he?s getting hit at a .296 clip so far. Also, he?s walked five and given up ten hits for a total of 15 base runners in 9.3 innings in his two starts since moving into the rotation. To make matters worse he now has the misfortune of facing the Rangers for the second time in less than two weeks. This will be the first time the inexperienced hurler will be giving a team a ?second look? and that is often when the ?wheels come off? for a young hurler. Keep in mind it also doesn?t help that the first time he faced them was in Oakland and now he has to face them in hitter-friendly Texas where the Rangers have the top batting average and top slugging percentage in the majors! While the Rangers lineup pounds the ball tonight, look for them to also get a very strong performance on the mound courtesy of Dustin Nippert! The Rangers right-hander has faced the A?s twice this season and allowed just one earned run on eight hits in nine innings of work while striking out ten! He is coming off of a rough start versus the Tigers in his last outing. However, Nippert had been rock solid in his three prior starts as he had allowed four earned runs on 16 hits in 17.3 innings of work. In Nippert?s last 21.7 innings he?s struck out 24. That is a key number because it shows how good his stuff is and with the A?s offense being one of the worst in baseball, we can rely on the Rangers hurler to shut them down while his teammates pile on the runs against Outman. That?s what makes this such a strong play and the line value is fantastic with a low number posted on this game. The Rangers are the Big Play Tuesday!

[Mr. IWS]

nsa 20-angels-140
10-kc-115
10-tb-135 game2
10-cle+105
10-ari+100
10-twins-135

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet980 MIN (-130)BetUS vs 979 CWS
Analysis:
Please note that the Pregame software does not list the Padre/Dodger, nor the Cubs/Mets games. So, I am putting all 3 plays here...



MLB: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins - Twins (Vazquez/Baker) -130 | Unit Value: 3 UNIT "Game of the Month"
Game Date: 9/23/2008
Note: The Math is easy for this one. Minnesota is 2.5 games behind and a loss tonight puts their chances of getting into the playoffs almost and impossibility. It is do or die time and they do have a good chance of accomplishing their goal, with the WhiteSox struggling here at the dome, winning just once in six games this season. Chicago is in the position they are in due to a poor September and preasure is getting to this team. Vazquez has beaten Minnesota twice at home this season, moving to 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA in seven starts against the Twins since the beginning of 2007. However, he's only 1-4 with a 5.68 lifetime ERA at the Metrodome. He's also had problems with the Twins' top hitters, especially Justin Morneau, who's 14-of-39 with six homers in their meetings. Baker has had his problems verses the Sox, but he has been very good at home this year and the Twins have also been very good here. It will be a packed house and a playoff atmosphere and the Twins will not hesitate to go to their Pen, which is one of the best in the Bigs. That is especially true when they throw here, maintaining an ERA of Under 2.5 runs all year at the Dome. After their huge roadtrip, the Twins return home to play their biggest game of the year. I do not think they will disapoint us and that is why I will lay the -130, much more than I usually do.



MLB: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers - Dodgers -1.5 (Leblanc/Billingsley) -120 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 9/23/2008
Note: Despite not playing so well lately, the Los Angeles Dodgers open the final week of the season atop the NL West and very much in control of their fate. The Wildcard is not an option and they enter this game just 2 ahead of the DBacks. They will have their best thrower on the hill for this one and although Chad had his worst outing of the season, last time out, he has been very good when they have needed him. He had posted a 1.86 ERA in winning his previous three outings, and he has been very good here at home. In fact he is 5-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last six starts at Dodger Stadium. The Padre thrower has been in the Majors just 3 weeks but has already faced the Dodgers 2 times. That is to the advantage to the Dodger hitters, having seen him often and recently. He has not been too spiffy and he will be under a lot of preasure tonight throwing on the road and facing a team that has hit southpaws better than rightside throwers. I will lay the 1.5 runs here..

MLB: Chicago Cubs at New York Mets - Mets -1.5 (Marshall/Santana) -115 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 9/23/2008
Note: Looking ahead to the postseason, Chicago?s Sean Marshall takes the mound in place of Rich Harden, who will pitch Thursday after Carlos Zambrano throws Wednesday. "We're starting to get ourselves re-arranged for postseason," Chicago manager Lou Piniella said yesterday. While it is not written in stone, the Cubs will more than likely be resting some key players over the next few days as well. The Mets are being hounded by the Phillies and Brewers for the Wildcard and this game is about as much of a must win as it gets. Santana is proving his worth lately. He allowed one run and eight hits while striking out eight in seven innings of a 7-2 win over Washington on Thursday to improve to 7-0 with a 2.26 ERA in his last 15 starts. The Mets have hit lefties well and they should be able to score enough runs to get this game for themselves and Johan, so I will lay the 1.5 runs.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet980 MIN (-110)BetUS vs 979 CWS
Analysis:


Minnesota -133

Like the Twins at home here. Their starter tonight, Scott Baker is 9-4 on the year, but 3-1 at home, with an ERA just over 3, and has allowed just 50 hits in 61 innings pitched at home. Minnesota took 3 out of 4 games in this series back in July at home, and the Sox are just 35-43 away from home on the season and start Vasquez tonight who is just 5-8 on the road with an ERA approaching 5 for the season. Minny off a 2-2 road split at the D Rays who are one of the leagues best, they will welcome a home game and some time to get out of a 4-6 slump their last 10 games, and the White Sox here as a team are only hitting right handers at .238 the last 10 games.

Play 1.5 Units on Minnesota...thanks and good luck..Check out my Playoff package guys, I OWN the preseason!! Tony George

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet977 OAK (+118)BetUS vs 978 TEX
Analysis: Stan has Bet OAKLAND in tonight's Baseball action. Stan expects Oakland starter Josh Outman to have a Big outing on the road tonight. Look for Oakland to win this one. TAKE OAKLAND as STAN'S UNDERDOG UPSET BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

972 Boston +1.01 (3 Unit Play) - Lee vs. Wakefield

I have a 7 play card this evening with the above play included in that and they are all underdogs so jump on board today by purchasing my MLB Weekly Package for just $20 and not only will I include the rest of my MLB plays through Sunday but I will also throw in my NFL and College Football for this week at no additional charge. Just go to procappersnetwork and click on the PCN Pros link and start winning today!

Best of luck to everyone this evening.

Don - Oscarxena Sports

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning

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under minny/ chic.

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky MLB

4* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -135 vs Atlanta @ 7:05 PM ET - Hamels vs Reyes -

Last week we were all set to turn the Phillies and Cole Hamels as a 6* Run Line over Atlanta with Jo-Jo Reyes on the hill. A pitching change turned that into a scratch, but note that we saw exactly what we wanted to from Hamels, in a game that was much more dominating than the bottom line would show. While he got the win, allowing two runs over six innings, the real story comes from the secondary numbers. He only walked one of the 26 batters that he faced, and of the 18 outs recorded the distribution is what we call “clean” – 13 ground-balls and five strikeouts, with nary a fly out. That rarely happens, but it shows how easily he can control a lineup that has struggled vs. left-handers all season. We believe that he can do it again, which builds up plenty of early innings for the Phillies to break the game open, and a rested Brad Lidge is ready to make the last outs easy as well. This time the Phillies do get to see Reyes, and that should get them to the ballpark early for batting practice. It also means that it may be difficult to tell when BP ended and the game began. Reyes just does not bring Major League stuff to the mound, with a combined 5-13/5.89 through his first two seasons, and in terms of this matchup and current form it is even worse. A case can be made that since the 4th of July there has not been a worse starter in the sport, at an 0-5/8.48 over 40.1 innings (just 4.1 frames per start!). The Braves have gone 0-9 in his starts in that span, 1-8 as +1.5, getting out-scored by a combined 38 runs. And behind Reyes is an overworked bullpen that can only add gasoline to any fires that he has lit. For all that is involved in this one the marketplace is enabling us to play a blowout in a short range, and we will do just that.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens Wnba 20*

Seattle -3

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Colemans 4* is Fla. Marlins

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso
10* Angels

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass Insider....100* Under Toronto

Seabass Bomb......200* Angels