9-23-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

TUESDAY
10 Dime Marlins

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

AL Game of the Week

This is the Twins last shot at the AL Central title. They enter this three-game home series 2 1/2 games back of the White Sox (three games in the loss column) and anything short of a three-game sweep will likely end any hopes Minnesota has of catching Chicago. Minnesota's "undoing" has been its poor road play, as the team is just 12-18 over its last 30 games, going 9-15 in 24 road games in that stretch. However, the Twins remain in contention because the White Sox have also struggled down the stretch. Chicago is 10-13 in its last 23 games, including a 5-9 road mark. Chicago is 51-26 at home but only 35-43 on the road on the season. The Twins are 49-26 at the Metrodome this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.37 RPG-to-3.75. The Twins have taken five of six this season in the Metrodome against the White Sox and as already mentioned, just almost HAVE to win all three in this series. Tonight's starting pitchers will be Javier Vazquez (12-14, 4.32 ERA), for Chicago and Scott Baker (9-4, 3.69 ERA) for Minnesota. Ozzie Guillen just recently challenged Vazquez to be "tougher" and we'll see if that motivates him or not. Guillen pitched Vazquez on just three days rest last Thursday in New York and Vazquez was 'rocked ' for seven runs (six earned) in just 3.2 innings of a 9-2 loss. One wonders why Guillen did that, as Vazquez had a 2.23 ERA over his previous seven starts (all on normal rest). Anyway, Vazquez 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA in seven starts against the Twins since the beginning of 2007 but he's only 1-4 with a 5.68 lifetime ERA at the Metrodome. The Twins have won both of Baker's starts this year vs Chicago, although Baker has allowed seven ERs over 11 innings (5.73 ERA) in the two games. That being said, let's look closer at these two pitchers. Vazquez owns a home ERA of 3.81 this year, allowing 87 hits in 101.2 innings (an excellent ratio). However, he's got a 4.85 road ERA (a full run higher), while allowing 115 hits in 98.1 innings. The White Sox are NOT a good road team and the Twins (as documented) are an excellent home team which has averaged 5.9 RPG in home night games vs right-handers. Baker has just two decisions (1-1) in his last 10 starts overall (team is 5-5) but he's pitched well at home all year, going 3-1 with a 3.28 ERA in 10 starts, with the Twins going 7-3. This is a HUGE game, as if the Twins win here, "the race is on," while if they lose, it's all but over. I'm sticking with the home team, which owns almost all of the statistical edges in this matchup.

AL Game of the Week 15* Min Twins.