9-25-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet972 MIN (-140)BetUS vs 971 CWS
Analysis:
The Twins opened this three-game series with the White Sox on Tuesday 2 1/2 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central (three games in the loss column). The Twins knew that anything less than a three-game sweep would probably end their division hopes. I played Minnesota on Tuesday in its easy 9-3 win but backed off the Twins last night, as Blackburn had been quite shaky as of late and Chicago veteran Mark Buehrle owned an excellent history against the Twins. Buehrle pitched well for Chicago but so did Blackburn and the Twins used three solo HRS to get a 3-2 win. The Twins can now move into the Central Division lead with a win tonight. Gavin Floyd (16-8 3.84 ERA) gets the start for Chicago. No one could have predicted this kind of a season from him. He spent his first three seasons with the Phillies ('04-'06), going 7-5 with a 6.96 ERA in 19 starts. He joined the White Sox last year, making 16 appearances (10 starts), while going 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA (team was 3-7 in his starts). So where did this year's 16-win season come from? Floyd has been great vs the Twins this year, going 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA in four starts, holding the Twins to a .168 average. However, Floyd has not looked good in September, allowing four or more ERs in THREE of his four starts (27.2 IP / 31 hits / 16 ERs / 5.20 ERA). He's also had much more success at home in '08, than he has on the road. That's mirrors his team as a whole, as the White Sox are 51-26 at home but just 35-45 on the road. The White Sox are 13-3 in Floyd's home starts this year, where he's allowed just 81 hits in 105.2 innings with a 3.66 ERA. That compares to Chicago's 8-7 mark in his road starts, where he's allowed 93 hits in 89 innings with a 4.04 ERA. I'll also remind everyone that Minnesota hit three HRs last night and Floyd has given up a team-high 30 HRs in '08. The Twins will counter with Kevin Slowey (12-11, 3.85 ERA). Don't be fooled by that record, Slowey been an excellent pitcher for Minnesota (especially at home), since mid June. After his first start of '08, Slowey was placed on the 15-day DL with a right biceps strain and didn't make it back to the majors until May 8, when he was recalled from the minors after a brief rehab assignment. Since June 13, Slowey is 10-5 in his 18 starts, with the Twins going 12-6. He's made eight home starts during that stretch, going 7-1 with a 2.25 ERA. The Twins are, like the White Sox, 51-26 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.39 RPG-to-3.72. If the Twins win here, they'll be a half-game up on the White Sox and they'll finish the season with three home games against the Royals. The White Sox end the season with three games in Chicago vs the Indians (Lee is scheduled to pitch on Sunday) and if necessary, a make-up game on Monday with the Tigers. It's pretty simple. Win tonight and Minnesota is the slight favorite to take the division and most importantly, will control its own destiny. Lose and the Twins would need help (lots of it). I'm betting the Twins rise to the challenge. Las Vegas Insider on the Min Twins

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY

10 Dime OVER Southern Cal/Oregon State - Analysis by 2 p.m. eastern

5 Dime Tulane

FREE - Oregon State

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al
Thursday GOM........Ore St

[Mr. IWS]

Burns
Thursday GOM...........ORE ST

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY

10 Dime OVER Southern Cal/Oregon State - Analysis by 2 p.m. eastern

5 Dime Tulane

FREE - Oregon State

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with SMU. I won with Tulane a couple of weeks ago when the Green Wave were hosting East Carolina. I felt that the line on the Pirates was too high and that the teams were more evenly matched than was reflected in the line. I feel the same way about this evening's game, only this time I believe that it's Tulane which has become over-valued. That has happened due to the Green Wave coming off their first victory (vs. UL-Monroe) and having gone 3-0 ATS. Give them credit for being competitive. However, a closer look shows that the lone victory came by 14 points and the Green Wave lost the other two games. Granted, those games both came against really good teams. Still, my point is that they haven't won a game by more than two touchdowns yet and I feel that this spread is too high. Keep in mind that Tulane is only averaging 18 points per game and has yet to even score more than 24 in a single game. It's also worth noting that Tulane was a money-burning 5-11-1 ATS (5-12 SU) in Conference play the past two seasons. The other reason for the high number is that the Mustangs have been blown out in each of their past two games. However, let's also keep in mind that both those games came against a pair of very powerful teams (TCU and Texas Tech) which are both currently ranked in the Top 25 and which have a combined record of 8-0. In other words, Tulane represents a significant step down in class from either of those Texas based power-houses. I believe that these teams are far more evenly matched than the pointspread indicates. Looking back to last year and we find that it was SMU which was a -6.5 point home favorite. Tulane got an absolutely massive game from running back Matt Forte (CUSA record 342 yards!) and scored a 41-34 upset in overtime. Fortunately for the Mustangs, Forte is finished school now. While Tulane lost it's offensive star, the Mustangs brought in a proven winner in coach June Jones, who recently had plenty of success at Hawaii. Jones knows that a victory here would have his team right back where they should be and he desperately wants to avoid a third straight blowout loss. The Mustangs won by five points (33-28) here in 2006 and I look for these teams to play a third straight close game tonight. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH

I'm taking the points with OREGON STATE. As usual, USC has another excellent team. That being said, asking them to win a nationally televised conference road game by more than three touchdowns is asking an awful lot. In fact, this is the first time since 2006 that the Trojans have been asked to lay more than three touchdowns on the road and only the third time in their last 20 road games overall. Yes, the Trojans have looked good thus far. They went on the road and pounded a rebuilding Virginia team and then came home and did the same thing to a strong Ohio State squad. That big victory should have the Trojans patting themselves on the back a bit, as they read all the press-clippings about how great they are. Off that big win and with a "revenge" game vs. Oregon on deck, I feel that this will be a difficult scheduling spot. This is Week 5 of the schedule and if we look back at the last couple of years, we find that the Trojans have really struggled at this time. Last season, they got off to a great start, winning their first three games by double-digits. They won those games by 28, 18 and 33 points. They were ranked #1 when they visited Washington in Week 5. That was their conference road opener and they were laying nearly three touchdowns. Sound familiar? Yet, while everyone was expecting another blowout, the Trojans struggled and won by only three points. The Trojans also failed to cover in their conference road opener in 2006. Additionally, they failed to cover in Week 5 that year. Overall, the Trojans are a money-burning 1-8 ATS in Week 5 through Week 9 the past two years. Note that Riley's Beavers were 6-3 ATS during the same stretch. It's true that USC has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. However, the same can also be said for Oregon State. While he hasn't had the talent to work with that Pete Carroll has had at USC, Mike Riley is also an excellent coach. Note that Riley's Beavers were 3-0 SU/ATS when coming off a bye week the last two seasons. Looking back further and we find Oregon State at an outstanding 16-7-1 ATS it's last 24 games when coming off a bye. The Beavers come in with a 1-2 record. They lost a winnable game on Opening Night, falling by eight points at Stanford. That result has given us some added value as a lot of the betting public lost with the Beavers in that game (or at least watched them) and are now unwilling to back them and/or believe that they are a really bad team. However, as already mentioned, winning a nationally televised conference road game is no easy task. Additionally, strange things can happen in Week 1 - just ask last year's Michigan team. My point is that I'm willing to forgive the Beavers for the Week 1 loss. I'm also willing to look past the Week 2 loss. That's because that game also came on the road and was against a very strong Penn State team. Their lone home game, which came prior to the bye, saw the Beavers put it all together as they crushed Hawaii, 45-7. The Beavers have been great at home in recent years and they upset USC (Trojans were ranked #1 at the time) the last time these teams played here. The Trojans will get their points but I look for the Beavers to also score, keeping this game much closer than expected and hanging within the inflated number. *Thursday Night GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
3*
Florida -115...qp...sanchez/balester

[Mr. IWS]

Roots Upset Club

OIre St +25.5

[Mr. IWS]

ppp

opinions
tulane
oreg st

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

4* Tulane