9-26-08

[Mr. IWS]

Lang- 10 dime UConn.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

LOUISVILLE (-3.5) 27 Connecticut 21

05:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Sep-26 - Stats Matchup
Louisville struggled offensively in their first two games, but it appears as if quarterback Hunter Cantwell is starting to adjust to his new receiving corps, as he averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in last week’s win over Kansas State. Louisville has actually improved every game offensively since being held to just 2.9 yards per play and zero offensive points in their 2-27 opening loss to Kentucky. Cantwell is still well below average throwing the ball for the season (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback), but he has proven the past 3 years that he can throw the ball (8.0 yppp on 168 pass plays the last 3 years) – so the Cardinals could be very good offensively if the new group of receivers continue to improve (they run the ball very well already). Connecticut’s defense, averaging 3.5 sacks (11 total sacks in two games with star DE Wittman playing – he has 4 of them), should put some pressure on Cantwell in this game and the Huskies are good against the pass (4.6 yppp allowed), but the Huskies are just mediocre defending the run, so Louisville should move the ball at a decent clip. The reason I like the Cardinals in this game is their much improved defense that’s limiting opponents to just 2.4 yards per rushing play (those opponents would combine to average 4.3 yprp against an average defense). Connecticut is a running team (67% running plays) that has averaged 6.0 yprp in 4 games this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp), so the key to this game is stopping the Huskies’ rushing attack – which it appears Louisville can do. My math favors Louisville by 6 points, so I’ll lean with the Cardinals minus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

ness *20 lou MLB white sox

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR!

Connecticut / Louisville
Take Louisville

My Big East GOY is a play on Louisville, minus points over UConn. I had the Cardinals last week in their big win over Kansas State, a very important win for HC Steve Kragthorpe. The offense is starting to put it together, after miscues cost them their opener against Kentucky. Louisville gained 577 yards on 88 plays in the win over Kansas State. Cantwell had a huge game with all of his offensive weaponry finally healthy, and RBs Anderson and Bolen both topped 100 yards on the ground. UConn wants to win with their defense, hoping to get ahead early so they can keep the ball on the ground in a controlled game plan. That won't be the case tonight, in my opinion. The Cardinals also have the revenge angle on their side after letting a 17-7, fourth quarter lead slip away to UConn in a 21-17 Husky win last season. One UConn TD that kept the Huskies in the game came on a botched call by the officials, scoring on a punt return after the returner had signaled for a fair catch. As far as the on-field situation is concerned tonight, the Huskies will attempt to gain control of the tempo with the running game, as mentioned above. But they'll be facing the nation's second stingiest run defense. Louisville has held their first three opponents to 42 rushing yards per game at 1.9 yards per carry! Take away UConn's ground game, home field, and make them step-up in competition and I truly believe they'll fold. The Cardinal defense is playing well, and the offense has finally found their rhythm under Kragthorpe. Look for Louisville to gain their revenge with a double-digit win on Friday night. The Cardinals are my Big East GOY.

[Mr. IWS]

wayne root

Chairman- Marlins
Millionaire- Cubbies

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

2% Louisville

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Blue Chip

Connecticut / Louisville Under