9-27-08

[Mr. IWS]

Ness 25*- Central Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL

I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. As you probably know, Penn State has a strong team this year and has cruised through it's first four games. That being said, the Illini represent a major step up in class from the likes of Coastal Carolina, Syracuse and a Temple team which was coming off a heart-breaking last second loss. While bettors have fallen in love with the Nittany Lions early on this season, they have soured on Illinois, as the Illini are 0-2 ATS in their two lined games. Let's keep in mind that the Illini are still 2-1 SU though and that the lone loss came by 10 points vs. a very strong Missouri team at the Edward Jones Dome. Note that the Illini had opportunities to win that game and finished with a significant advantage in time of possession, while gaining over 500 yards on offense. With the betting public really liking the Nittany Lions while disliking the Illini, the line is higher than two touchdowns. I believe that offers us terrific value with the underdog. Keep in mind that the last time the Illini were underdogs of greater than two touchdowns, they went into Columbus and beat Ohio State outright as +15.5 underdogs. Having beaten the Nittany Lions outright last season and having hung with Missouri, the Illini certainly won't be intimidated here. While they haven't enjoyed much success here in terms of SU victories, the Illini did get the cash in their last visit here, covering the spread (lost by 14) as 18 point underdogs. In fact, all three meetings here this millennium were won by Penn State but decided by 14 points or less. In 2002, the Illini lost by 11 here and in 2000, they lost by 14. This year's team Illinois team is led by the dangerous Juice Williams, now with another season under his belt, and boasts a national ranking. Including the two ATS losses in this series, the Nittany Lions were a money-burning 4-12 ATS in conference play the last two seasons. Conversely, the Illini were a profitable 11-5 ATS in their conference games the past two years. The Illini, who have the advantage of extra preparation time due to having last week's bye, are also an outstanding 6-1 ATS the last seven times they were listed a double-digit underdog with the lone loss during that stretch coming vs. USC in the bowl game. Look for them to improve on those numbers as their previous big game experience (Missouri) proves valuable and they hang within the inflated number once again. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NON CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The betting public usually loves Notre Dame and a couple of years ago, the Irish could do no wrong. However, they began 2007 by getting crushed by LSU in a January bowl game and then proceeded to lose nine of their first 10 regular season games, going 3-7 ATS during that stretch. Naturally, after that tough 2007, the betting public was pretty down on the Irish. After all, nobody likes to keep losing money on the same team week after week. The Irish did close out the year with a couple of wins though and the betting public thought this was a "new year" and backed Notre Dame heavily in Week 1 - the Irish won vs. San Diego State but didn't cover. Still remembering last year, that caused a lot of bettors to immediately get off the Irish in Week 2. The Irish responded with a solid win and cover. The Irish faithful jumped back on the bandwagon last week, giving their team yet another chance and the Irish lost SU and ATS at Michigan State. That result has caused the majority of the betting public to again abandon the Irish which I believe has helped create excellent value with what I feel is currently an underrated Notre Dame team. Yes, the Irish lost on the road last week. They're 2-0 SU at home though, including a 35-17 win over Michigan. That victory avenged a 38-0 loss suffered at Michigan the previous year. This afternoon, the Irish will be playing with "revenge" once again, as the Boilermakers beat them last season. That was at Purdue though and this game is at South Bend. That's noteworthy as the Irish are 14-1 the last 15 times they were a host in this series, most recently a 35-21 win here in 2006. While the Boilermakers are capable of being fairly potent offensive, I'm not impressed with their defense. The Boilermakers blew out Northern Colorado in their opener but that was to be expected. (The Bears are a Football Championship Subdivision team that went 1-11 last season.) They followed that up by losing at home vs. Oregon and then only beating Central Michigan by a touchdown. They were actually losing that game 25-24 with a minute left in the game, too. In fact, Central Michigan had an edge in time of possession and a significant advantage in both first downs (26-16) and total yards, 440-344. That was somewhat of an 'emotional' win, which could leave the Boilermakers susceptible to a letdown here. I say that it was emotional for a few reasons. For starters, the Boilers won in the final minute. It was also a rematch of last year's Motor City Bowl thriller. Additionally, it gave Coach Joe Tiller (retiring at end of year) the school record for most victories. Back to the Purdue defense. The Boilermakers have now allowed 57 combined points in their last two games. Including the aforementioned Motor City Bowl game, they also allowed a whopping 149 in their final four games last season. In other words, they haven't stopped anyone in a long time (except 1-A Northern Colorado which scored 10) and the Irish should be able to put up a decent number of points. On the other side of the ball, I believe that the Irish will be able to effectively limit the Purdue running game which will cause the Boilermakers to be one dimensional. While I certainly respect QB Curtis Painter, I feel that the Irish blitzing defense will cause him some trouble. It should also be noted that this will be Purdue's first road game of the season. The Boilermakers were 0-3 their last three road games last year and are 7-12 their last 19. With the line having dropped from -3 down to the point where a SU victory ensures a cover, we're getting excellent value with the home team. Look for the Irish to avenge last year's loss as Weis gets the better of Tiller in their final matchup. *Non-Conf. GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
CFB BEAT DOWN - BLOWOUT GAME OF MONTH

I'm laying the points with OHIO STATE. After failing to cover in all three lined games, the betting public has jumped off the Buckeyes' bandwagon. That has caused this line to be quite a lot lower than it would have been otherwise, giving us solid value with the much stronger team. Keep in mind that the Buckeyes are still 3-1 SU and that the three victories have come by an average of 24 points. All wins were by double-digits and two of them came by 18 or more. The lone loss came at USC and there's no real shame in that. While the Buckeyes already bounced back from the USC loss with an 18 point win over Troy, they still haven't forgotten about the loss. I believe those memories will keep them from treating the Gophers lightly, particularly with Minnesota coming in at 4-0. Let's also keep in mind that the Buckeyes were laying -24 points ON THE ROAD when they faced Minnesota last season. Yes, the Gophers have been playing better. They haven't played any teams even close to this level though. Let's not forget that the Buckeyes brought back a whopping 19 starters this season though while the Gophers brought back 15. That means that we've got an even more experienced Buckeyes team, playing at home and laying roughly a touchdown less. Note that the Buckeyes won last year's meeting by a score of 30-7. They were laying -27.5 points when they hosted the Gophers the previous year and they crushed them by a score of 44-0. The previous meeting here resulted in a 34-3 victory for Ohio State. Note that the Buckeyes have also won their last three Big 10 openers by an average of 33 points each. The Buckeyes started highly touted freshman Terrelle Pryor last week and all he did was throw four touchdown passes and break Art Schlichter's school record for most TD passes by a freshman. Pryor certainly has plenty of confidence, saying: "I don't want to be cocky, but I've been making plays my whole life." In addition to the four touchdown passes, Pryor added 66 rushing yards on 14 carries. While I like the Buckeyes with or without him in the lineup, it should also be mentioned that Ohio State is expected to have star running back Chris "Beanie" Wells back in the lineup. That's worth noting as Wells was a Heisman Trophy candidate before getting hurt and had more than 1600 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns last season. The Buckeyes have won 21 of their last 22 home games and they're 20-3 all-time against Minnesota at Columbus. Look for them to make a statement, continuing their dominance in this series and winning by 20+. Blowout GOM
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- Washington

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob CFB
5 College Best Bets and 5 Strong Opinions this week.

Rotation #141 Stanford (+3) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars from +2 1/2 to -1.
Rotation #162 South Carolina (-25) 3-Stars at -27 or less, 2-Stars at -27 1/2 or -28.
Rotation #166 Ball State (-17 1/2) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars from -21 1/2 to -23.
Rotation #167 South Florida (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #174 Penn State (-15) 2-Stars at -17 points or less.

Strong Opinions are:
Thursday - Rotation #102 Tulane (-18) Strong Opinion at -19 or less.
Thursday - Rotation #104 Oregon State (+24 1/2) Strong Opinion at +24 or more. 2-Star Best Bet at +27 or more.
Rotation #126 LSU (-24) Strong Opinion at -26 or less.
Rotation #153 Fresno State (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Rotation #163 Army (+27 1/2) Strong Opinion at +27 or more.


3 Star Selection
***BALL ST. (-17.5) 48 Kent State 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Kent State applied to a very strong 53-6-1 ATS indicator last week and still couldn’t come close to covering the spread. That’s 10 consecutive spread losses for the Golden Flashes and it’s about to become 11 in a row. Kent is a horrible defensive team that has allowed 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team and the Flashes are not going to be able to stop future NFL draft pick QB Nate Davis – even with top WR Dante Love out. Davis has been among the very best quarterbacks in the nation this season, completing 73% of his passes for an incredible average of 10.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB). Dante Love was Davis’ favorite target, but Love was seriously injured in the first half of last week’s game and will no longer be able to play football. Davis and Love had grown into the nation’s top passing duo, as Davis completed an amazing 28 of 32 passes intended for Love for 460 yards (14.4 ypa). If I take those passes out of Davis’ tally then he still would average an incredible 8.4 yards per pass play and Davis gained 127 yards on 14 pass plays (9.1 yppp) after Love’s injury last week at Indiana. Kent State has allowed 66% completions and 7.3 yards per pass play to a horrible collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 4.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Davis will exploit that defense even without Love and RB MiQuale Lewis (529 rushing yards at 5.9 ypr) will also have a big day running against a Kent defensive front that has given up 5.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average just 4.4 yprp against an average team. Kent is decent offensively, averaging 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but the absence of star running back Eugene Jarvis (1669 yards at 6.0 ypr last season and 5.2 ypr this year before getting hurt in game 3) will likely hurt that attack. Ball State has a much improved defense that has yielded 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl, so Kent’s offense and Ball State’s defense are about the same and Kent will have a difficult time keeping up with Ball State on the scoreboard. In addition to the mismatch at the line of scrimmage there is some technical analysis that supports the Cardinals. Ball State applies to a 57-18 ATS home momentum situation that is based on last week’s win at Indiana and Kent applies to a negative 22-68-3 ATS situation. Love’s injury should also serve to fire up his team, which will no doubt dedicate this game to their fallen star. I’ll take Ball State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less and for 2-Stars from -21 ½ to -23 points.

3 Star Selection
***SOUTH CAROLINA (-25.0) 45 UAB 10
04:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
South Carolina hasn’t been very good offensively this season, averaging just 5.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack, but the Gamecocks have been 0.1 yppl better than average with Chris Smelley at quarterback and Steve Spurrier will take out his frustration against the nation’s worst defense. UAB has allowed 7.8 yppl in 4 games to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team and the Blazers are particularly bad against the pass, allowing 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would average 5.5 yppp against an average team. UAB allowed 9.7 yppl to Tulsa, 9.2 yppl to Florida Atlantic, and 7.4 yppl to a sub-par Tennessee offense. Even the 4.8 yppl and 10 points that UAB allowed to Alcorn State last week is bad when you consider that Alcorn State is one of the worst offensive teams in Division 1AA ball and would average just 2.7 yppl and 0 points against an average Division 1A defense. While South Carolina finally gets to have some fun on offense the ferocious Gamecocks’ defense (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team) should put the clamps on UAB quarterback Joe Webb, who is a below average passer (6.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp) but has run for 443 yards on 55 rushing plays (8.1 yprp). UAB has only faced one better than average defensive team and the Blazers scored just 3 points in that game at Tennessee. South Carolina’s defense is much better than Tennessee’s defense, so Webb won’t generate too much offense. My ratings favor the Gamecocks by 35 points and Steve Spurrier’s teams at Duke, Florida, and South Carolina are a combined 86-54-2 ATS (61%) as a favorite of 35 points or less. Spurrier is also 5-1 ATS at South Carolina when facing a team with a losing record. I’ll take South Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars from -27 ½ to -28 points.

3 Star Selection
***Stanford 30 WASHINGTON (-3.0) 21
07:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Washington has faced a tough schedule of teams (Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma), but that doesn’t hide the fact that the Huskies are a bad team. Washington has been out-gained by an average of 4.3 yards per play to 7.6 yppl in those 3 contests, which is bad even when you consider that Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma would combine to out-gain an average team 6.4 yppl to 4.6 yppl. The Huskies’ Jake Locker is an outstanding talent, but all of last year’s top receivers are gone and Locker has averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback). Jake can still run the ball (229 yards on 37 rushing plays), but the running backs have been horrible and Washington’s overall rushing numbers are just average (4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp). Stanford has a solid defense that has allowed 5.2 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit and the defense has been better the last two weeks with the addition of LB Nick Macaluso, who missed the first two games of the season. Stanford’s offense is hindered by the poor quarterback play of Tavita Pritchard (4.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp), but running back Toby Gerhart has run for 407 yards at 5.7 ypr and he should have another big game against a weak Huskies’ defensive front that’s surrendered 6.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average team. Washington can’t defend the pass either (9.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 7.4 yppp), so Pritchard should have decent success through the air too. Stanford is actually a much better offensive team than Washington is and the defensive edge for the Cardinal is huge (as well as the special teams edge). Not only is Stanford the better team but the Cardinal apply to an 88-35-1 ATS subset of a 248-132-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that has been very good to me over the years and Washington is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons, including 0-5 straight up their last 5 in that role. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ½ to -1

2 Star Selection
**S. Florida (-9) 31 NO CAROLINA ST. 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
South Florida is 0-3 ATS this season, but the Bulls are in a good spot to play a good game this week against an NC State team due for a letdown after their overtime win over East Carolina. NC State applies to a negative 42-78-1 ATS situation that plays against home underdogs after a straight up win as a dog of 7 points or more and the Wolfpack will be hurt by the loss of top defensive player Nate Irving, who injured his leg in the second half of last week’s win. Starting quarterback Russell Wilson is also out indefinitely, but Wilson wasn’t really that productive and Harrison Beck probably won’t be any worse. Beck has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass play on 209 pass plays since last season (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and he has thrown a horrendous 13 interceptions on just 214 career pass attempts (6.1%, which works out to 2 per game). South Florida has been just mediocre defending the pass so far this season, but Beck shouldn’t do too much damage and the Wolfpack aren’t going to be able to run against a dominating USF defensive front that has allowed just 3.1 yards per rushing play in 3 games against Division 1A opponents (who would combine to average 4.3 yprp against an average team). South Florida’s offense has only been 0.2 yards per play better than average in 3 Division 1A games, but they played it pretty conservatively last week in a letdown spot against Florida International (which followed their thrilling win over Kansas) and I actually rate the Bulls’ attack at 0.5 yppl better than average. NC State’s defense has been worse than average through 4 games (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) and that unit is likely to get worse without Irving, who leads the team in tackles, has 25% of the team’s tackles for loss and 28% of the team’s passes defended with 3 of those being interceptions. South Florida applies to a very strong 40-3 ATS subset of a 245-130-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator and my math model suggests that the line is fair, as I favor USF by 8 ½ points despite the Bulls playing below their potential so far. I’ll take South Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and I’d make USF a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.

2 Star Selection
**PENN ST. (-15.0) 40 Illinois 16
05:10 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Penn State has won their 4 games by an average score of 53-10 and the Nittany Lions still appear to be an underrated team. Perhaps people question the strength of a schedule that includes Coastal Carolina, Syracuse and Temple. My math model compensates for strength of opponent and the Nittany Lions rank among the top 5 teams in the nation in my ratings. Penn State did host a pretty good Oregon State team (the Beavers are underrated because they lost to Stanford in a game they actually dominated from the line of scrimmage) and the Lions out-gained the Beavers 7.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl in a 45-14 victory, so Paterno’s club has proven themselves against a team of similar caliber to Illinois. By the way, Illinois faced two horrible teams in their 3 games and the Illini only out-gained Eastern Illinois and UL Lafayette 5.9 yppl to 4.6 yppl, which is a far cry from Penn State’s 7.0 yppl to 3.8 yppl advantage against their schedule. Illinois did play very well against Missouri (6.9 yppl to 6.7 yppl allowed), but quarterback Juice Williams has followed up his incredible 409 yards at 8.7 yards per pass play performance by averaging just 5.2 yppp against Eastern Illinois and UL Lafayette, which is a game they nearly lost. Overall, Williams has been just 0.3 yppp better than average (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback), which is slightly better than he was last season (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). Illinois certainly doesn’t run the ball as well this season (5.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team) as they did when they had Rashard Mendenhall toting the rock and I don’t see the Illini doing much damage against a dominating Penn State defense that has allowed just 2.9 yprp and 3.9 yppp to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp and 5.0 yppp against an average defensive team (after factoring in that they faced Temple’s backup quarterback for most of last week’s game). Now the Lions get their best defensive player, DE Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks and 21.5 total tackles for loss last season), back after serving a 3 game suspension. Penn State’s offense is also very good (7.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Lions great rushing attack (279 yards per game at 6.7 yprp, against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) will thrive against an Illinois defensive front that has allowed 5.6 yprp to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team. If Eastern Illinois can run for 211 yards at 6.6 yprp against the Illini I just don’t see how Penn State and their dominating offensive line can be stopped. The Illini have been good in pass defense (5.4 yppp against teams that would average 6.6 yppp) but they are just 0.1 yppl better than average overall and Penn State should have no trouble moving the ball. My ratings favor Penn State by 24 ½ points in this game and using this year’s games only would favor the Lions by 32 ½ points. Penn State reminds me a lot of Kansas last season, as the Jayhawks started the season with dominating wins over weaker teams while the public questioned how good they really were because of their schedule. My math model picked Kansas every week and the Jayhawks covered the spread in their first 11 games. Penn State is a very good team and that will be proven over and over again this season. My only concern is Illinois coach Ron Zook’s history of success against good teams. Excluding Zook’s first year at Illinois in 2005 (when he didn’t have any talent), Zook’s teams at Florida and Illinois are 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play, including a straight up win at Ohio State last season. Penn State, however, is 17-4-1 ATS the last few years as a favorite of 9 points or more and the Paterno is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more in revenge games - so the team trends are about even - and Penn State applies to a solid 87-34-1 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less.

Strong Opinion
TULANE (-18.0) 39 SMU 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
June Jones hasn’t had the instant magic at SMU as he did in his first season at Hawaii back in ’99 (from 0-12 in ’98 to 9-4 in ’99), as the Mustangs young quarterbacks are struggling in his run-and-shoot attack. Freshman starter Bo Levi Mitchell has been decent on a yards per pass attempt basis (7.1 ypa), but he takes too many sacks and has thrown 10 interceptions in 4 games. Overall the Mustangs have averaged a respectable 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but the interceptions figure to keep on coming with a freshman at quarterback against a good defense. While Jones hasn’t been a miracle worker at SMU, new Tulane defensive coordinator O’Neill Gilbert has turned the Tulane defense into a very good unit. The Green Wave started the season by holding Alabama to just 173 total yards at 3.6 yppl and they to nearly upset East Carolina while limiting the Pirates’ good attack to just 5.2 yppl. The Green Wave finally got their first win of the season with a 24-10 win over UL Monroe last week while yielding just 200 total yards. Tulane has given up just 4.6 yppl in 3 games to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team and the Wave pass defense has been especially good (just 4.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.5 yppp), which matches up nicely with a pass-heavy SMU attack. Tulane has averaged 4.3 sacks per game and they should harass Mitchell into plenty of mistakes in this game. Tulane hasn’t been much offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), but SMU has a horrible defense that’s surrendered 6.7 yppl (to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average team), including giving up 6.0 yppl and 36 points to a bad Texas State offense and 6.6 yppl and 48 points to a sub-par TCU attack last week. My math model favors Tulane by 18 ½ points and the Green Wave apply to a 55-24-3 ATS home momentum situation that plays on teams coming off their first win of the season. SMU, meanwhile, applies to a negative 4-22 ATS early season angle based on their bad defense. I’ll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at -19 points or less.

Strong Opinion
OREGON ST. 16 USC (-24.5) 34
06:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
USC has been dominant in their first two games, beating the crap out of a bad Virginia squad 52-7 and then taking care of a very good Ohio State team 35-3. The Trojans are certainly the best team in the nation based on their first two games, but teams that impressive in their first two games can often become overrated. In fact, game 3 road favorites of 6 points or more are just 10-27 ATS if they won and covered as favorites in each of their first two games, including 1-11 ATS if they covered the spread in both games by more than 9 points. USC also applies to a negative 11-45 ATS road favorite letdown situation and Oregon State applies to a 39-4-1 ATS subset of a 99-37-3 ATS rested home underdog situation that is 23-1-1 ATS when applying to underdogs of 7 points or more. While USC is obviously a very strong team on both sides of the ball and special teams, the Beavers may be a bit underrated. Oregon State was crushed 14-45 at Penn State, but the Beavers’ loss at Stanford was misleading (they out-gained the Cardinal 490 yards to 306 yards) and Oregon State rates 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively after adjusting for the level of opposition faced. Quarterback Lyle Moevao is posting very good numbers (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and Sammie Stroughter (21 catches in 3 games) and Shane Morales (22 catches) form one of the best receiving duos in the Pac 10. The Beavers won’t be able to run, but they should have some success throwing the football. My ratings favor USC by 22 points and the line has gone from 21 ½ points to 25 points – so there is line value on the side of the Beavers in addition to the strong situation. The only problem I’ve got with this game is USC’s 18-5 ATS record in games after a bye (including bowl games) under coach Pete Carroll, including 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 13 points – so the off week probably negates the possibility of a letdown. However, the Trojans are also just 4-11 ATS as a conference road favorite of more than 10 points after a win when they don’t have revenge (2-2 ATS off a bye). The situation favoring Oregon State is just too strong to ignore and I’ll consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more and I’d take Oregon State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Army 12 TEXAS A&M (-27.5) 34
09:30 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Army is the worst offensive team in Division 1A football, as the Cadets have averaged just 3.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. However, Army’s run heavy attack (78% runs) should have decent success today against an A&M defensive front that has allowed opponents to average 6.5 yards per rushing play (those opponents would only average 4.6 yprp against an average team). If Army can run for better than the 3.7 yprp that they’ve managed so far this season then they can sustain a few drives and eat up the clock in the process. Teams that run a large majority of the time are generally good bets as huge underdogs in part because running the ball eats up more clock and usually leads to fewer turnovers (which are normally a big problem with huge underdogs). Texas A&M has been well below average both running (3.9 yprp) and throwing the ball (5.5 yppp) and the Aggies are 0.7 yppl worse than average overall on offense (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Army is pretty good defending the run (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), but the Aggies should move the ball through the air pretty easily in this game against a Black Knight secondary that has given up 7.5 yards per pass play to teams that would average just 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. My ratings favor Texas A&M by just 22 points in this game and I’ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at +27 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Fresno St. (-7.0) 32 UCLA 20
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
UCLA has been out-played in every game this season and the Bruins were lucky to get their one win over Tennessee (they were out-gained 4.0 yards per play to 4.9 yppl by the Vols). I don’t see that trend changing today against a good Fresno State team that survived their letdown game last week at Toledo (a 55-54 OT win). The Bulldogs have been 1.1 yppl better than average offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) with a good balance of run (188 yards at 5.5 yprp) and pass (207 yards at 7.2 yppp) and veteran quarterback Tom Brandstater rarely makes mistakes (just 6 interceptions on 416 pass attempts since last season). UCLA’s defense has barely been better than average so far this season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), so the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game. That is not likely to be the case for UCLA’s offense, which has managed just 3.9 yppl in 3 games this season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yppl to an average attack). Fresno is average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) and will be a bit without two of their defensive linemen this week, but UCLA doesn’t appear capable of moving the ball consistently enough to keep up with Fresno State. My ratings favor Fresno State by 12 ½ points and using this year’s games only would predict a 17 ½ point margin in favor the Bulldogs. UCLA is 11-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or more since 1989 (1-0 this year) and Fresno State is only 3-9 ATS as a non-conference favorite under Pat Hill, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

Strong Opinion
LSU (-24.0) 37 Mississippi St. 7
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Mississippi State was 4-0 in close games last season (i.e. games decided by 7 points or less) so their 8-5 record is a bit misleading and is the reason the Bulldogs were overrated heading into this season. Miss State was just an average team last season, rating at 0.7 yards per play worse than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average on defense. This year’s team is even worse offensively so far, averaging 4.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, and that unit has managed just 7 points total in games against Auburn and Georgia Tech the last two weeks (and they scored just 14 points against a bad Louisiana Tech defense in their only other game against a Division 1A opponent, which also resulted in a loss). LSU’s defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years, but the Tigers are still very good on the stop side of the ball and that unit has allowed just 4.1 yppl in 3 games against teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. Mississippi State may give more playing time to quarterback Tyson Lee, who has completed 67% of his 45 passes, but Lee’s compensated yards per pass play number (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) is only 0.1 yppp better than Miss State’s team average – so Lee doesn’t appear to be the answer (although he hasn’t thrown an interception and Carroll has thrown 6 picks). Expect another single digit scoring effort from the Bulldogs in this game. LSU may also be changing quarterbacks, as redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee played very well in the 2nd half of last week’s comeback win at Auburn after starter Andrew Hatch was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Lee has averaged a sparkling 7.6 yppp on 50 pass plays (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp) and he gives the Tigers a better passing option to go along with their great rushing attack (6.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team). Mississippi State is once again solid in pass defense (4.6 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppp), but the Bulldogs were ripped for 439 yards on the ground last week by Georgia Tech at an incredible 8.3 yprp. I actually think that game was an aberration since the Bulldogs aren’t used to seeing the option being run in the SEC, but LSU should still be able to get good yardage on the ground and gradually extend the margin in this game. LSU actually applies to a very strong 74-16-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator, but the Tigers are a surprising 0-10 ATS in conference home games following a victory under coach Les Miles and they could certainly suffer a letdown this week after last week’s showdown with Auburn. My math model favors LSU by 30 points in this game, so the Tigers can still cover even with a bit of a letdown, and that 74-16-1 ATS match-up indicator is too good to ignore. I’ll consider LSU a Strong Opinion at -26 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 96% (26-1 ATS) NCAA FB GAME OF THE MONTH!: Al McMordie kicked the Bookies' teeth in last week with his #1 NCAA FB Favorite of the Month on Tulsa over N.M. (a 56-14 Wipeout). Now, Al's UNLOADING with his #1 play of September: It's Big Al's NCAA Game of the Month

Game: Alabama at Georgia Sep 27 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: Alabama
Reason: At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide + the points over Georgia. Last year, Georgia won 26-23 at Alabama, but this year's Crimson Tide squad is a far cry from the team that went 13-13 in the 2006 and 2007 seasons. This year, Alabama is off to a 4-0 start, and demolished Arkansas 49-14 on the road last week. Alabama also opened the 2008 season with an upset win against then-No. 9-ranked Clemson, so the Tide have jumped into the Top 10, while Georgia sits at #3 in the latest polls. Most impressive, of course, has been Alabama's defense. The Tide has surrendered just 9.2 points per game. And since 1998, College Football teams which give up 14.8 or less points are an eye-popping 26-1 ATS at Game 5 of the season forward, if they're off a win of 6+ points, covered the spread in their previous game, and they're now priced between +5.5 and +9 points. College Football Game of the Month on Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Big 10 Game of the Month or my College Football Revenge Superplay out of an eye-popping system on this Saturday.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer


Hammer GOM Central Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

8:00p Ben Burns Illinois +15.0 / 6 units
7:30p Ben Burns Mississippi State LSU u39.0 (-110) / 8 units
3:30p Ben Burns Notre Dame -1.0 / 7 units
12:00p Ben Burns Ohio State -17.5 / 7 units

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

SATURDAY

20 Dime - New Mexico State

5 Dime - Bowling Green

FREE - Alabama

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer--
10* total..............cincy under
5* total............sanjose over
ko....................oregon
tko sec shocker gom........miss
tko..............iowa
tko..............mich

[Mr. IWS]

Ness

Double-Dime Bet

Rich Rodriguez has plenty of work to do in his first year at Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are an extremely young offensive unit with just three returning starters from last year. It's hard to lose talent like Henne (QB), Hart (RB), Manningham (WR) and OL Jake Long and "not miss a beat." Add to that, Rodriguez trying to install a new offensive system and the Wolverines have averaged just 18.7 PPG and 290.7 YPG in opening 1-2 (win over Miami-Ohio). However, this is a veteran defensive unit and despite getting little help from its offense, Michigan's 'D' has allowed only 284.3 YPG overall and has been superb against the run (65.3 YPG / 1.8 YPC). Wisconsin comes in ranked No. 9 and must be careful not to look ahead, as the Badgers return home for games vs No. 14 Ohio State and No. 12 Penn State the next two Saturdays in Madison. Both teams are off byes, with Michigan off a 35-17 loss at Notre Dame and Wisconsin winning at Fresno State 13-10 back on 9/13. Michigan was able to move the ball fairly consistently against Notre Dame, racking up 388 yards but six turnovers killed many drives and set the Irish offense up with some short fields. The good news is that redshirt freshman QB Threet looked pretty good, completing 16-of-23 for 175 yards with one TD and no INTs. Another freshman, RB McGuffie, rushed for 131 yards (5.2 per) and added four catches for 47 yards. Wisconsin was not overly impressive in its win over FSU, as after running up point totals of 38 (Akron) and 51 (Marshall), the Badgers led 10-0 at the half in Fresno, barely holding on for a 13-10 win (FSU missed three FGs!). PJ Hill had 1,569 YR as a freshman (15 TDs), 1,212 YR as a soph (14 TDs) and has opened his junior year averaging 126.3 YPG through three games with four TDs. However, that Michigan rush D is very good (see above) and he's totaled just 68 rushing yards vs Michigan in the last two years, averaging 2.7 per (he was less than 100% in LY's game, gaining 14 yards on five attempts). If Michigan can keep Hill in check, QB Evridge could (should) struggle. He had just 10 attempts vs Akron, had 308 yards vs Marshall but then was an unimpressive 12-of-24 for 143 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) vs FSU. Does history count for anything? This is the first time that Wisconsin has been favored over Michigan since 1959 (also the first time the two schools have met with Wisconsin being ranked and Michigan not). The Badgers have only won in Ann Arbor ONCE since 1965 and will try to beat the Wolverines in back-to-back years (won 37-21 in Madison LY) for the first time since 1993-94. Prior to that, the Badgers hadn't beaten the Wolves in consecutive years since 1959-60. Michigan has put together 40 consecutive winning seasons and has gone to 33 straight bowls (both streaks are the longest active ones in CFB) and Rodriguez will have to "work some magic" to keep those streaks alive in '08. I'm calling for some 'magic' this Saturday in the Big House. Take the home dog to 'bark loudly' in this one. STP on Michigan.


Nebraska -7 vs Virginia Tech

Double-Dime Bet

Can Bo Pelini return Nebraska to CFB 'royalty?' Nebraska hasn't been the same since it saw its 35-year bowl streak end in 2004, when the Cornhuskers went 5-6 in Bill Callahan's first season. That losing record was also the school's first losing one since 1961. Callahan's team bounced back in '05 going 8-4 and followed with a 9-5 season in '06 but when Nebraska fell to 5-7 last year, "it was time for Callahan to go!" Ironically, Pelini was Nebraska's DC in '03 (when Solich was let go) and was the team's interim head coach when Nebraska beat Michigan St in that year's Alamo Bowl (17-3). He's been the DC at LSU since '05 and was a popular choice. Nebraska is off to a 3-0 start but the 'Huskers have hardly been tested, with home wins over Western Michigan, San Jose St and New Mexico St. Joe Ganz took over at QB for the team's last three games in '07 and had a remarkable three-game stretch. He averaged 466.3 YPG through the air while throwing 15 TDs (did have seven INTS), leading Nebraska to an average of 54.3 PPG. However, the Cornhuskers lost TWO of those three games, allowing 76 points to Kansas and 65 to Colorado. Hence the need to bring in a defensive oriented coach liker Pelini. Ganz leads a balanced attack this year which has averaged 40.0 PPG through three games, as he's completed 64.1 percent with five TDs and three INTs (has averaged 239.7 YPG in the air). The running game is averaging 189 YPG (5.4 per), although senior Marlon Lucky (728 YR in '06 and 1,019 in '07), has yet to have a big game. Nebraska opponents are scoring just 14.3 PPG with the 'Huskers allowing 347.3 total YPG. The Cornhuskers have been tough against the run, limiting foes to 77.7 YPG and 2.6 YPC but have yielded 269.7 passing YPG. However, Nebraska has five INTs while allowing only two passing TDs while registering nine sacks. The competition has been of the lightweight variety so far but in Va Tech, the 'Huskers face a team with offensive limitations. Va Tech lost its opening game of the year to East Carolina 27-22, when the Pirates blocked a punt and returned it for TD with under two minutes remaining. While Va Tech has rebounded with three straight wins, the 22 points the Hokies scored against ECU, remains the high-point of their season. Va Tech trailed North Carolina LW 17-3 in the late third quarter but rallied to win, 20-17. The win came despite 268 total yards and converting on just 3-of-16 3rd down opportunities. Taylor has replaced Glennon at QB and while he's a better runner, I'm not sure he's an overall improvement. As always, Va Tech is a strong defensive team but this is hardly a "vintage Beamer team." Va Tech has rarely been known to play well on the road outside of its own conference against quality programs. I guess the answer then lies in whether Nebraska is back in the class of being a quality team? I believe Nebraska has a ways to go but I also believe this is a very mediocre Va Tech team with severe offensive liabilities. Nebraska is 26-3 SU in home night games and after Saturday night, we can make that 27-3. STP on Nebraska.


15* Rivalry Game of the Month

UNLV -4 vs Nevada

UNLV is best known for its basketball program and with three MWC schools currently residing in the AP's top-25 (BYU, Utah and TCU), UNLV's football accomplishments hardly are at the top of any MWC press releases. That being said, UNLV has had a very good two weeks. Few coaches in the nation entered this season with any more 'heat' on them than UNLV's Mike Sanford. The Rebels had gone just 6-29 in Sanford's first three years in Las Vegas (two wins in each season) and his teams seemed to get worse as each season progressed and Sanford was being accused of "losing control" of his players. However, Sanford continued to profess that he saw improvement. Well, he may just have been right. UNLV opened with a matter-of-fact 27-17 win over Utah State, then got blown out in Salt Lake City by Utah 42-21, in a little "pay back" for UNLV's 27-0 shut out of the Utes last year in Las Vegas. However, UNLV did not let that loss "get them down" as the Rebels won on September 13 in Tempe, 23-20 (in OT), against then-No. 15 Arizona State. UNLV followed that win with a 34-31 win last week at home vs Iowa State, again winning in OT. These games were not flukes, as UNLV just lost the yardage 'battle' at ASU (373-345) and outgained ISU last Saturday, 454-306. Frank "Tank" Summers gained 928 YR in '07 and has 386 YR (4.5 per) through four games TY, after gaining 212 yards the last two weeks against ASU and ISU. Sophomore QB Omar Clayton has been terrific, completing 63.1 percent of his throws for 777 yards with nine TDs and zero INTs! Could UNLV be 'flat' this week off back-to-back OT wins over BCS schools? That's an argument one could make but Nevada is coming to town this week. The Rebels have lost three straight to their only in-state rival. including a 27-20 loss in Reno last year. In that game, the Rebels had tied the game late but lost when then-QB Graziano completed a 27-yard TD pass with just 27 seconds left for a Wolf Pack win and COVER. I remember it well, as I had Nevada. Colin Kaepernick won the QB job from Graziano during the '07 season and finished with 2,175 passing yards (53.8 percent) and 19 TDs with just three INTs (247 attempts). Kaepernick is off to a modest start in '08 and it sure doesn't help that senior RB Luke Lippincott (1,420 YR / 5.3 YPC / 15 TDs in '07) tore up his knee and is out for the season. Nevada was off last week and that's an edge but it's hard to get read on this team. The Wolf Pack have beaten Grambling St (49-13) but their only other games have been against current No. 10 Texas Tech (lost 35-19 at home) and at No. 6 Missouri (lost 69-17). Since returning to Reno in '04, HC Chris Ault is an impressive 20-6 at home but just 8-17 SU and 9-16 ATS on the road. The Wolf Pack own the scheduling edge but the Rebels own momentum and a HUGE revenge motive. A win here and Sanford would be 4-1 with only a trip to CSU up next and then a home date with Air Force on Oct 18 (after a bye). Things are looking 'up' in Las Vegas. Final STP is my Rivalry Game of the Month 15* UNLV.

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls minus the points over NC State. These two teams met in the Meineke Car Care Bowl on December 31, 2005. That was South Florida's first Bowl appearance, but it was not a memorable one, as NC State shut out South Florida 14-0. But the 13th-ranked Bulls have chosen not to forget that game, and have circled Saturday night's game on their calendar with the intent to payback the Wolfpack with a convincing victory. South Florida's task was made a bit easier when NC State's top offensive and defensive players were injured in the Wolfpack's 30-24 upset win last week over East Carolina. Starting LB Nate Irving sustained a lower leg injury, and will be replaced by freshman Dwayne Maddox, and NC State's starting QB, Russell Wilson, will be on the sidelines while Harrison Beck fills in for him. Although South Florida won last week to move its record to 4-0, it struggled, and barely beat Florida International 17-9 as a 29-point road favorite. Not surprisingly, the Bulls must have been looking past Florida International and ahead to this game, but that lackluster victory sets up our play here, as road teams, priced from PK to -10, are 18-0 ATS off a pointspread loss as a 14-point (or greater) road favorite, provided they scored 26 or less points in their previous game, and are now matched up against a .401 (or better) foe. Take South Florida. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Big 10 Game of the Month or College Football Game of the Month on this Saturday.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini plus the points over Penn State. A lot of people want to anoint the Nittany Lions as the best team in the land, and especially after Oregon State (one of the teams PSU throttled) defeated the then-No. 1-ranked USC Trojans. But it's dangerous to say, "Team A beat Team B, which beat Team C, and therefore Team A is ...." Indeed, using that logic, one would never have figured that Oregon State would have defeated Southern Cal to begin with, since Oregon State was defeated earlier this season by a very poor Stanford team. But Penn State may be the country's best team at season's end, though I believe Illinois will give the Nittany Lions a stern test in Happy Valley on Saturday night. The key to Illinois' chances, of course, rests on the very capable shoulders of QB Juice Williams. The Illini will rely a lot on the legs of Williams (who leads the team in rush attempts), and should have great success running between the tackles. Their offensive line is led by four-year starter Ryan McDonald, and he'll be able to open some holes while working against PSU's defensive tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu. Besides QB Williams, RB Daniel Dufrene and FB Rahkeem Smith will get sizable yardage on Saturday night. So I look for the Illinois ground attack to shorten the game and keep the Illini well within the large pointspread. Finally, for technical support, I have a super 50-22 ATS system which plays against certain favorites off a double-digit ATS win (PSU is off a 42-point win over Temple as a 29.5-point fave, covering the spread by 12.5 points). Big 10 Game of the Month on Illinois. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Football Revenge Superplay or my College Football Game of the Month on Saturday.


At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide + the points over Georgia. Last year, Georgia won 26-23 at Alabama, but this year's Crimson Tide squad is a far cry from the team that went 13-13 in the 2006 and 2007 seasons. This year, Alabama is off to a 4-0 start, and demolished Arkansas 49-14 on the road last week. Alabama also opened the 2008 season with an upset win against then-No. 9-ranked Clemson, so the Tide have jumped into the Top 10, while Georgia sits at #3 in the latest polls. Most impressive, of course, has been Alabama's defense. The Tide has surrendered just 9.2 points per game. And since 1998, College Football teams which give up 14.8 or less points are an eye-popping 26-1 ATS at Game 5 of the season forward, if they're off a win of 6+ points, covered the spread in their previous game, and they're now priced between +5.5 and +9 points. College Football Game of the Month on Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Big 10 Game of the Month or my College Football Revenge Superplay out of an eye-popping system on this Saturday.

[Mr. IWS]

wayne root


Chairman - Nebraska
Millionaire GOY- Michigan
Inside circle- N.Dame
Money-Maker - Nevada
Billionaire- UCLA
No-Limit - Tenneessee
Perfect play - Georgia

[Mr. IWS]

spritzers pancake goy is okl st

[Mr. IWS]

PPP - 5%Duke 5%W.Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Ness

My CFB Bailout GOW is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET. Hawaii has been to a bowl in FIVE of the last six years, including last year's momentous trip to the Sugar Bowl. Hawaii's perfect 12-0 season ended in a blowout loss to Georgia but the accomplishments of this program under June Jones cannot be denied. Jones had a storied nine-year tenure in Honolulu, taking over a program which had gone 0-12 in 1998 and leading the Rainbows to a 9-4 season in 1999, including a 23-17 Oahu Bowl win over Oregon State. The Rainbows failed to make a bowl in each of the next two years (despite a 9-3 mark in 2001) but as mentioned at the top, went 'bowling' FIVE times from '02 through '07. Jones left for SMU after last season's near-perfect year and first-time head coach Greg McMackin is left with a team hardly resembling last year's group. Record-setting QB Brennan is in the NFL with the 'Skins, while three 1,000-yard receivers (two caught over 100 balls) plus a fourth who caught 61 passes for 859 yards are all gone, as well. The defensive losses are almost a huge, as just four starters return this year, from one of the school's best units ever in '07. Hawaii opened its season at Florida (a 56-10 'disaster') and then fell behind Division I-AA Weber St the following week (at home, no less) 17-7 at the half. However, led by QB Tyler Graunke (who was not starting because of academic reasons), the Rainbows came back to win 36-17 (Graunke had three TD passes in the 2nd half). Hawaii then traveled to Corvallis and lost 45-7 to the Beavers, a loss that doesn't look as bad now, with OSU's upset of USC on 9/25. Hawaii had a much-needed week off last Saturday and should be primed for its WAC opener Saturday, against San Jose State. The Spartans head coach is Dick Tomey, who is in his 28th season. He spent the years of 1977-1986 at Hawaii where he was 63-46-3 and left as the program's all-time leader in victories before June Jones eclipsed that total. The Spartans have had a busy early schedule, as they have played every week, coming in at 2-2. SJSU's two wins are hardly much to brag about, edging UC-Davis at home 13-10 and beating 0-3 San Diego State (also at home), 35-10. SJSU has lost at Nebraska (35-12) and last week, 23-10 at Stanford. A quick check of those four games shows that the Spartans have failed to score more than 13 points in THREE of their four games in '08. SJSU really misses QB Adam Tafralis, who last year passed for 3,022 yards with 18 TDs. Cal transfer Kyle Reed has completed 79.4 percent (2 TDs / 2 INTs) this year but the team's not scoring much. RB Yonus Davis had 1,007 YR in '07 (6.8 per) but other than his 143-yard game against SDSU, he's averaged a modest 50.0 YPG in the team's other three, including a seven-carry, 26-yard game vs UC-Davis. Tomey led SJSU to a 9-4 mark in 2006, which included a bowl win over New Mexico. That year's team was 3-3 on the road but excluding that year, SJSU is just 2-25 SU on the road since 2003, including its 0-2 start in '08. Hawaii is NOT the Hawaii team of '07 (or of the past half-dozen years, for that matter), but the Rainbows have beaten the Spartans seven consecutive times, including in SJSU's last four trips to Honolulu by margins of 37, 18, nine and 24 points! CFB Bailout GOW 15* Hawaii.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (5-1 or 83.3 percent with FB Insiders in '08)-Early Sat!
My Las Vegas Insider is on Iowa at 12:00 ET. Northwestern is off to a 4-0 start but the wins have come against Syracuse, Duke and Ohio (a combined 3-8) plus Southern Illinois. It marks the first time since 1962 that the Wildcats have opened 4-0. FYI...That year's team was coached by Ara Parseghian and was ranked No. 1 in the nation at 6-0, before losing two of its final three games. Does current Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald (who is like 11 years old) remind anyone out there of Ara? Actually, Fitzgerald, was the Big 10's defensive MVP when Northwestern made it's "miracle run" to the Rose Bowl, following the 1995 season. Fitzgerald took over at Evanston in 2006, after Randy Walker's tragic death. He was 31 at the time, making him CFB's youngest head coach by FIVE years. The Wildcats went 4-8 in that '06 season and last year went 6-6, so this year's fast start is pretty impressive. However, all good things "must come to an end." Northwestern escaped with a 16-8 win over an 0-4 Ohio team last Saturday by blocking two FGs, recovering two fumbles and holding the Bobcats to four yards rushing. The Wildcats survived an offensive drought in the second half plus four INTs by CJ Bacher, as well as an injury to RB Tyrell Sutton. Northwestern rushed for minus-four yards and failed to pick up a first down with Sutton on the bench because of a leg injury. Bacher, who had INT problems last year with 19, has not thrown a TD pass in three games, since opening with three TD passes in the Wildcats 30-10 win over Syracuse on August 30. Sutton, who ran for 1,474 yards as a freshman in '05 (but has battled injuries since), is listed as probable this week but who really knows? As for Bacher, he'll have his work cut out for himself against an Iowa defense which hadn't allowed a TD until last week. After allowing only eight total points in its first three games, Iowa lost 21-20 last Saturday at Pitt. However, the Panthers only made 13 FDs while totaling a modest 259 yards. The Hawkeyes have been very strong on the defensive side of the ball thus far in '08, yielding only 255.5 total YPG and a mere 7.2 PPG. Iowa has 10 takeaways in four games and I expect Bacher to be in for a "long day." The Iowa QB position is not settled, as both Christensen (58.9 percent and a 2-1 ratio) and Stanzi (60.4 percent and a 3-2 ratio) have played, with Stanzi expected to start in this one. However, unlike in '07, RB Greene (506 yards / 6.5 YPC / 4 TDs) has given the Hawkeyes an offensive balance they lacked last year. After averaging just over 125 YPG (3.5 per) on the ground LY, Iowa is averaging 190.5 YPG (4.9 per) in '08. Ferentz saw his six-year bowl streak end in '07 with a 6-6 mark and after failing to open 4-0 in '08 because of last week's 21-20 loss at Pitt, I expect the Hawkeyes to get back on the winning track this Saturday (in a BIG way!) against a "lucky to be 4-0" Northwestern team. Las Vegas Insider on Iowa.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Private Players Pittsburgh

(4%)Northern Illinois
(3%)Penn State
(3%)South Florida
(3%)Arkansas St
(3%)Ohio State

[Mr. IWS]

big Al
TEN DIMES GAME OF THE YEAR - OKLAHOMA
COMPUTER BOYS - OKLAHOMA STATE

[Mr. IWS]

burns baseball

giants

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer -added

5* C. Mich
4* Nebraksa


Dog Pound New Mex St