9-28-08

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob NFL
2 NFL Best Bets this week and one Strong Opinion.

Rotation #199 Houston (+7 1/2) 2-Stars at +7 or more.
Rotation #203 San Francisco (+5) 2-Stars at +4 or more.

Rotation #205 Atlanta (+7) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.

As always, the analysis of the rest of the games can be found on my site at drbobsports.com in the free analysis section (use the menu and look under football to NFL and over to Free Analysis or use the game link at the bottom of the NFL page.

2 Star Selection
** Houston 24 JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
Houston has had to start the season with a 3rd consecutive road game due to the postponement of their week 2 home game. Playing a 3rd straight road game in the NFL is generally a bad thing (88-117-1 ATS), but teams that lost the first 2 of those 3 games both as underdogs are actually 27-13-1 ATS in that 3rd road game. Houston, meanwhile, is 23-8-1 ATS in their history as an underdog after consecutive losses, including 6-2 ATS under coach Kubiak, so don’t overreact to the Texans’ first two games. Houston has obviously not played up to expectations so far, but facing two of the best defensive teams in the league on the road ( Pittsburgh and Tennessee ) is bound to make a team look bad. Houston had a very good offense last season and quarterback Matt Schaub has still averaged 6.5 yards per pass play as the Texans’ quarterback (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Houston has also found a running back in rookie Steve Slaton, who has run for 151 yards at 5.1 ypr in 2 games, so the Texans are still a better than average offensive team that should be able to score on Jaguars’ defense that has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Jaguars have the reputation as being a good defensive team, but they were just average defensively last season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and have certainly not been good this year. Jacksonville ’s offense hasn’t been good either thanks to an offensive line missing 3 starters. The Jagars lost starting C Brad Meester for half the season in training camp and then lost both starting guards for the season in game 1. The result has been an inconsistent rushing attack that has averaged only 4.0 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr) and a quarterback (David Garrard) that doesn’t have time to find open receivers down the field. Garrard has completed 66% of his passes, but he’s averaged just 9.8 yards per completion and a sorry 5.0 yards per pass play after the 9 sacks are taken into account. The line did play well last week against the Colts and the subs will certainly get better with more experience, so I do still rate the Jaguars’ offense as better than average even though they’ve averaged just 4.5 yppl in their first 3 games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl). Houston ’s defense was a bit below average last season and they have started this season about the same (5.4 yppl allowed to mediocre Tennessee and Pittsburgh offenses that would average 5.3 yppl at home against an average defensive team). I think there is a ton of potential for Houston to improve defensively this season with all the young stars in the defensive front 7, but I rate that unit a bit worse than average currently. Overall my ratings favor Jacksonville by just 5 ½ points and using this year’s games only would favor the Jaguars by just 4 ½ points. In addition to the line value favoring Houston , the Jaguars apply to a negative 20-55-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.

2 Star Selection
** San Francisco 26 NEW ORLEANS (-5.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I really wanted to make the 49ers a Best Bet last week against Detroit (my ratings favor them by 13 points), but a negative 21-58-2 ATS situation that applied to the Niners caused me to downgrade San Francisco to a Strong Opinion. The oddsmakers and the public still aren’t giving enough credit to the 49ers for being a good team this season, as San Francisco has clearly been better than the Saints. The Niners won at Seattle two weeks ago with a 5.8 yards per play to 4.9 yppl advantage and they dominated Detroit 6.2 yppl to 4.4 yppl in a 31-13 home win last week. San Francisco’s only blemish was a fluke opening day loss to Arizona in which the Niners averaged 6.8 yppl while allowing the explosive Cardinals’ attack just 4.3 yppl. San Francisco was -5 in turnover margin against the Cardinals with 4 of those being lost fumbles, so that loss should be considered random bad luck and not a mark against the Niners (I actually consider that game a huge plus for them). San Francisco has out-gained their 3 opponents 6.2 yppl to 4.5 yppl as Mike Martz has turned the offense into a force while the defense has gone from decent to very good with added talent surrounding star LB Patrick Willis. New Orleans will be a good test for the defense, as the Saints have averaged 6.5 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. New Orleans , while better than San Francisco offensively, is still having problems on defense, as evidenced by the 6.3 yppl that they’ve allowed (to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). New Orleans is 1.3 yppl better than average offensively this season, but they are 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. The Niners, meanwhile, have been 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively – for an overall edge of 0.6 yppl over the Saints (+1.4 yppl to +0.8 yppl). The 49ers also have better special teams and my ratings only favor the Saints by 1 ½ points in this game while using this year’s stats only would favor the 49ers by 2 points. The technical analysis is a bit confusing, as the Niners apply to a 3-20-4 ATS subset of a 27-72-1 ATS road letdown situation while New Orleans applies to a negative 20-55-1 ATS early season home favorite situation. San Francisco also applies to a very good 17-2-1 ATS early season indicator that plays on winning teams that were losing teams last year (that the public hasn’t figured out is good yet), and the Niners apply to a very strong 55-13-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is actually 1-0 ATS in the only game that intersected with that 3-20-4 ATS situation that SF applies to. Overall the technical analysis favors the Niners a bit and my ratings favor San Francisco to cover as well. I’ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.

Strong Opinion
Atlanta 19 CAROLINA (-7.0) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
Atlanta has beaten up on two of the worst teams in the league, Detroit and Atlanta , but they lost 9-24 at Tampa Bay in their only road game of the year and my first thought was that something similar would happen here. However, the Falcons have been better than expected even after compensating for playing two of their games against the Lions and Chiefs. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 6.9 yards per pass play, but those numbers are skewed by a couple of long passes and he’s unlikely to continue to average 15 yards per completion. Ryan’s poor 53% completion rate is a better indicator of his future performance and I rate Ryan as 1.1 yards per pass play worse than average. Even with that being the case the Falcons still have a decent offense thanks to the running of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, who have combined for 552 rushing yards at 6.1 ypr. That average isn’t too much of a fluke given that Turner has averaged 5.7 ypr on his 287 career carries and Norwood has averaged 6.1 ypr on 233 career carries. Teams that can run that well are generally pretty good bets as underdogs even if their pass attack isn’t good and the Falcons apply to a very strong 55-13-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 21-1 ATS more recently. Carolina is struggling offensively but solid on defense, as is usually the case, and my ratings favor the Panthers by 7 ½ points – so the line is pretty fair. Using this year’s games only would favor Carolina by just 4 points but I get 7 points if I adjust Ryan’s numbers to reflect a more reasonable yards per catch average (since a few long gains have skewed his average). Carolina is only 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more under coach John Fox so the Panthers are not to be trusted laying big points. While I should be betting Atlanta based on that 55-13-2 ATS indicator and a fair line, I am having a tough time pulling the trigger since my first instinct was that they’d lose by about 10 points in this game. I’ll probably regret passing on the Falcons as a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

25 Dime Buccaneers

5 Dime Teaser- Jaguars /Titans (Take Jaguars from -7 to -1 and take Titans from -3 to +3)


FREE - Arizona Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

NOS -4.0 vs SF

The Saints have opened 1-2 but could just as easily be 3-0. The team led the Redskins 24-15 with just over six minutes left in the 4th quarter of a 29-24 loss at Washington in Week 2 and Martin Gramatica's 43-yard FG try with 1:55 remaining last week was wide right, as the Broncos escaped with a 34-32 win over the Saints in Denver in Week 3. The 49ers enter on a two-game winning streak, with wins at Seattle (33-30 in OT) in Week 2 and a 31-13 home win last week over the Lions. The Saints enter this game leading the league with 315.3 YPG passing, after Drew Brees passed for 421 yards in last Sunday's loss to the Broncos. San Francisco's starting QB will be JT O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan has played for five teams in his six NFL seasons but made his first NFL start this year in Week 1. He gets a chance to haunt a former club for the second straight week (beat the Lions last week), as the Saints drafted him in the sixth round of the 2002 draft. However, he never took a snap with New Orleans in two-plus seasons before getting traded to Green Bay in 2004. O'Sullivan has been very good these last two weeks, completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 509 yards with three TDs and no INTs, as the 49ers have averaged 32.0 PPG. Sullivan's 104.6 QB rating is second-best in the NFC this year and he's opened up the field for RB Frank Gore, who leads the NFL with 412 yards from scrimmage (287 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 13 receptions). However, with Brees running the New Orleans' offense, the 49ers will have trouble keeping up with the Saints. Brees leads the league with 980 passing yards and has defeated the 49ers in all three games he has faced them, throwing for seven touchdowns in that span (including a four-TD game last season). He is missing WR Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey but this Saints 'O' just keeps rolling. Brees is getting plenty of support from RB Reggie Bush this year, who looks to be regaining the form that saw him post over 1,500 all-purpose yards as a rookie in 2006. Bush ran for 73 yards and added 11 catches for 75 yards in last weekend's loss (now leads the NFL with 26 catches), scoring on the ground and through the air. The 49ers are 2-1, while the Saints are just 1-2 but look at who they've played. San Francisco's wins have come against a pair of teams who are a combined 1-5 (Seattle and Detroit), while the Saints have lost to Washington (2-1) and Denver (3-0). Lay the cheap price with New Orleans.

[Mr. IWS]

AL

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over the Tennessee Titans. Prior to the season, Minnesota was a sexy pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl after an offeseason in which it strengthened its defense. Unfortunately, it didn't strengthen itself at the quarterback position until last week, when it benched Tarvaris Jackson in favor of veteran Gus Frerotte. Frerotte righted the Vikings' sinking ship by completing 16 of 28 for 204 yards and a TD. That touchdown -- a 34-yard pass to Visanthe Shiancoe -- ended a seven-quarter TD drought for Minnesota. Both the Titans and Vikings feature strong defenses, and solid running games. Minnesota is led by perhaps the NFC's best RB in Adrian Peterson, while Tennessee has perhaps the #1 rookie RB in Chris Johnson, and a solid goal-line back in LenDale White. Though Tennessee is 3-0, it's been aided by a relatively weak schedule. The Titans' last two wins were against the winless Cincy Bengals and Houston Texans, while its first victory was against the solid, though 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. In contrast, Minnesota has faced three potential division winners in Indianapolis, Green Bay and Carolina. I look for even more improvement this week by the Vikings' offense under Frerotte, as Frerotte's ability to throw the deep ball will keep Tennessee's defense honest, and prevent the Titans from putting eight men in the box to stop Peterson and Chester Taylor. Finally, the Vikings fall into 10-0, 51-18, 39-11, 43-12 and 44-17 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 10-0 angle. What we want to do is play, in Week #4, on any 1-2 underdog of +1.5 (or more) points off a win, if it's matched up against a foe off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Look for Minnesota to win its second straight this Sunday afternoon. Take the points. NFL Game of the Month on the Vikings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Monday Night Game of the Month tomorrow!

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans plus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville likes to run the ball, but its struggles this season can be directly traced to its offensive linemen's injuries. Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams are out for the season, and Brad Meester may miss Sunday's game as well. Look for former #1 pick DE Mario Williams to exploit this Jacksonville weakness, and even line him up at LB to rush the middle to force Jags' QB David Garrard into errant throws or create sacks. Garrard has been sacked nine times already this season, so Houston will have success there. On offense, expect coach Kubiak to shorten the game by handing the ball off to rookie RB Steve Slaton, who rushed for 116 yards last week in his first career start. Finally, Jack Del Rio's Jaguars fall into a NEGATIVE situation that 0-15 ATS since 1982. What we want to do is play against any unrested home favorite in Game 4 if it won the previous week after starting the season with two straight losses. After getting a "must-win" in Game 3 to avoid an 0-3 start, these "pretenders" come right back down to Earth in Game 4, and can't cover the spread as a home favorite. AFC South Game of the Year on the Houston Texans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Game of the Month today.

[Mr. IWS]

burns nfl 9/28


UNDER raiders/chargers

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Oakland and San Diego to finish UNDER the total. I had the Chargers in their Monday night victory over the Jets and I'll have to admit that their aerial attack has looked pretty impressive. Everyone else has seen the same thing though and that has helped to cause this afternoon's total to be generously high. Keep in mind that just because a team is involved in a high-scoring Monday night game, doesn't mean that it will play in another shootout the following Sunday. In fact, the opposite is often true. Just look at last week. The Cowboys and Eagles combined for a whopping 88 points on Monday night. Last week, due in part to the Monday night results, both those teams saw extremely high over/under lines. The Eagles had an over/under line of 45 vs. the Steelers while the Cowboys and Packers line was all the way in the 50's. What happened? Both games fell comfortably below the total. The Cowboys and Packers combined for 43 points while the Eagles and Steelers managed a mere 21. Looking back at recent meetings between the Chargers and Raiders and we find that none of the four games from the past two seasons had an over/under line which was greater than 44. Note that three of those four games finished below the total and none finished with more than 47 points. Looking back further and we find that seven of the last eight series meetings have fallen below the total. The fact that Oakland was involved in a high-scoring game at Buffalo last week has also helped to keep this o/u line above the key number of 44. A closer look at the game shows that it was actually low-scoring until the fourth quarter as the teams had only 23 points through the first three quarters with the Raiders having allowed only seven. I'm not sold on the Raiders' offense. Through three games, JaMarcus Russell has completed only 51.6% of his passes for 391 yards. They scored 23 points last week but a closer look shows that they only had 10 first downs and that they were 2-of-12 on third-down conversions. Additionally, four of their five scoring drives were for fewer than 27 yards, showing that they were rather fortunate to manage as many points as they did. They've scored 17 or less in nine straight games against the Chargers. I do like the Raider defense though. They've got a talented secondary and they've improved their ability to stop the run. That being said, I still expect the Chargers to feature a heavier dose of the run then they've shown through the first three weeks. Not only is Tomlinson slowly getting healthier but they know that's where they've been successful here in the past. Looking at their last two games here at Oakland and we find that the Chargers ran the ball a combined 81 times! As for Oakland, they have run the ball an average of 36 times per game through the first three weeks, which is the third most rushing attempts in the entire league. As you know, frequent running plays typically help to slow the clock down. Look for that to be the case today and for the final score to stay below the generous number. *AFC West TOY



ST LOUIS

Game: Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Rams Reason: I'm taking the points with ST. LOUIS. Give the Bills credit. They're off to a great (3-0) start. However, I still don't believe that they're ready to be laying more than a touchdown on the road. Last week, the Bills were at home and they barely beat Oakland, winning by one point. The previous week, in their lone road game, they won by four points. Dating back to last season and we find that the Bills are only 4-5 SU in their nine road games. A closer look shows that none of those four victories came by more than 10 points and that only one came by more four points. Note that the Bills don't typically lay this many points on the road but that they're just 1-3 ATS since 1992 when listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. It's true that the Rams have looked pretty bad through their first three games. Ok, really bad. However, I really don't think that they've given up on the season yet. It should also be noted that the Rams have played a very tough schedule. Two of their games were on the road (at Philly and at Seattle) and their lone home game came against the defending Super Bowl champions. While the playoffs are now certainly a very big longshot, the Rams do know that anything is possible in the NFC West, where every team has at least one loss already. If the Rams want some inspiration, they can look at their opponent. Last season, the Bills got off to an 0-3 start. Entering Week 4, everyone was really down on the team and they had been outscored by a combined margin of 64-10 (26-3 and 38-7) in the previous two games. However, the Bills came home for Week 4 and managed a hard fought win. That turned their season around and by a Week 13 they were all the way up to 7-6. This week's matchup has some similarities to another Week 4 matchup from last season, Houston at Atlanta. The Texans came in riding high and with a winning record. The Falcons came in with an 0-3 record and having been outscored by a 64-30 record. The betting public favored the Texans but I took the points with the Falcons. Atlanta won outright by double-digits. The point that I'm trying to make is that Week 4 is a really important time for winless teams. At 0-3, the playoffs are a huge longshot. However, at 0-4, there's no more pretending - it becomes virtually impossible to battle back and make the playoffs. Teams know that and they often respond with a really big effort, for the sake of pride, if nothing else. No team wants to write off the season before September is even finished. I believe that will be true of the Rams and that they will fight extremely hard this afternoon. I like the move to insert Trent Green in as the starting QB and feel that the veteran has something to prove and will play with a chip on his shoulder. Look for Green to provide a spark and for the Rams to play their best game of the season, giving their guests all they can handle and earning at least the cover. *Non-Conf. GOW


UNDER bears/eagles

Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Game Time: 9/28/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Bears and Eagles to finish UNDER the total. These teams have faced each other five times this millennium. Four of the five games, including each of the last three, fell below the total. The last three meetings had scores of 19-16, 19-9 and 19-13. As you can see, there were a lot more field goals than touchdowns. I expect tonight's game to prove low-scoring once again. The Eagles have shown that they are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Monday night game at Dallas notwithstanding, they've also shown they have an en excellent defense. Last week, they limited Pittsburgh to a mere six points and in Week 1 they held the Rams to only three. That's two games out of three in which Philadelphia didn't allow a touchdown. Last week, the Eagles sacked Ben Roethlisberger eight times and forced him out of the game. They also sacked his backup, Byron Leftwich, a ninth time. Additionally, they forced three turnovers and produced a safety. The defense will need to be good again as Westbrook is questionable and McNabb isn't at 100%. As for the Bears, they've averaged a respectable 23 points per game. However, they still aren't exactly the type of team which keeps defensive coordinators up at night. As usual, Chicago likes to run the ball a lot. In fact, the Bears' 35 rushing attempts per game is the second most in the NFC. Only Atlanta, which enters Week 4 at 35.3, has more rushing attempts per game. As you know, frequent rushing plays typically help to keep the clock moving, leading to lower-scoring games. While the Bears like to run the ball, they'll be up against an Eagles' rushing defense which has allowed a mere 2.4 yards per rushing attempt and only 45.7 per game. Both those marks rank #1 in the league. Looking at some o/u stats and we find that the UNDER is 17-6-1 the last 24 times that the Eagles were listed as favorites, including a 3-1 mark when they've been listed as road favorites of three points or less. As for the Bears, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 19-6 the last 25 times that they were listed as home underdogs of three points or less. Look for those numbers to get even better this evening. *Main Event



TAMPA BAY

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 9/28/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. This line has fallen to the point where a victory should also ensure a cover and I believe that offers us excellent value with the Bucs. With identical 2-1 records, both teams have played well and both are relatively pleased with their starts. In my opinion, the situation strongly favors Tampa though. For starters, as you know, the Bucs are playing at home. Additionally, having played an early game last Sunday, they've had a full week's worth of rest. Conversely, the Packers are playing on a slightly shorter week as they are coming off a Sunday night game vs. the Cowboys. While the difference between playing during the day and at night isn't a huge deal, I personally believe that the Sunday night games are slightly tougher to recover from; if for no other reason than the players get extra excited for the nationally televised Sunday night affairs. That being said, the events which occurred during and at the end of those games are much more important to me than the time at which the game was played. After leaving everything on the field in an effort to get back in the game vs. the Cowboys, the Packers were visibly exhausted. If you look back at the game tapes, you'll notice numerous Green Bay players with hands on their hips. I had a real sense that all the emotion from the past couple of months of the "Favre saga" had finally caught up with them. If they won, they might have been able to continue to ride that "emotional high." I believe that losing that "big game" will be difficult to recover from though, particularly in the heat vs. a tough and still under-rated Tampa team. As for the Bucs, it's true that they also played a physically exhausting game. In fact, it went to overtime. However, I believe the fact that they won the game will help negate the fatigue factor and I also feel that Tampa will be able to build some positive momentum from the dramatic nature of the comeback victory. (The Bucs rallied from a 10 point 4th quarter deficit.) As QB Brian Griese had to say: "I think these types of wins can really propel your team I think the biggest thing that I'm going to take away, and hopefully every guy in this locker room will take away, is a belief that no matter where you are in the course of a game, you're going to get it done in the end. That's a powerful thing for a team, for everybody to believe in each other, offense, defense, special teams. That's a big piece of having a winning team." Note that Griese, who is in his second stint with the Bucs, threw for more than 400+ yards in the victory. Tampa is now 7-1 in his last eight starts. Griese will be facing a Green Bay secondary which will without cornerback Al Harris, who got hurt last week. Packers defensive coordinator Bob Sanders said was quoted as saying: "...certainly losing Al, a guy of that caliber, that hurts. Anytime you lose a guy like that, it's not good." Dating back to 1998, the Bucs are also 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in six meetings against the Packers here in Florida. The five Tampa victories came by an average of nine points and all came by a minimum of two. Looking back to the start of last season and we find the Bucs at a healthy 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10 home games. Look for them to build on those stats with a win and cover here, improving to 3-1 and remaining tied with Carolina (or possibly Atlanta) on top of the NFC South. *NFL GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers plus the points over the New Orleans Saints Sean Payton's squad has suffered two huge injuries on the offensive side of the ball. In week 1, Marques Colston injured his thumb, and won't return until late October, at the earliest. And then, last week, TE Jeremy Shockey also sustained an injury. Not surprisingly, Drew Brees & Co. are 0-2 without their Pro Bowl wideout Colston on the field, and now will be even more hardpressed to stretch the defense with the likes of WRs Lance Moore, David Patten, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and TE Billy Miller trying to catch balls, and take defense's attention away from Reggie Bush. Even worse for New Orleans is the fact that Patten might miss this game as well, as he wasn't healthy enough to participate in Thursday's practice. Finally, complicating all of this is that New Orelans' offensive line is in flux with left tackle Jammal Brown (groin) and left guard Jamar Nesbit (suspension) out for Sunday's game too. The Saints' run game has stalled, and shouldn't be any better as SF can lock in on Reggie Bush, without any serious threats from the Saints' receivers. The 49ers have a decent offense, ranked 11th in the league, and prefer to hand the ball off to Frank Gore, who is one of the five best RBs in football. New Orleans defensive line is relatively weak, and has allowed an average of 5.3 yards per carry, and 119 yards per game, to RBs this year. Under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz, SF journeyman QB J.T. O'Sullivan has actually been quite efficient, and there's no reason to think that won't continue on Sunday, as Martz can use the run (with Gore against a weak defensive front) to set up the pass. NFC Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Division Game of the Year or my NFL Game of the Month on this Sunday!

At 4:05pm our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. This will be the last start of the season for the likely National League Cy Young Award Winner, 24-year-old Giants righthander Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has been brilliant, but has lost his last two outings, the first time this season that this has happened, and there is no doubt that neither he nor his team want him to go out with three straight losses, even though it would be hard to imagine anyone else taking home the Cy Young Trophy (though Johan Santana should be considered if the Mets make the Playoffs). A much bigger post-season award question is who will win the NL MVP, and there is quite a bit of sentiment out there for the Dodgers' newly-acquired outfielder Manny Ramirez. While it's hard to imagine the coveted MVP trophy going to a player who has spent less than half the season playing in the NL, it is certainly very difficult to argue the Dodgers would have clinched their NL West Division crown without Ramirez. Rarely has there been such a clear case of a single player acquired at the trade deadline having turned an entire season around for his new team. However, with the Dodgers having clinched already, you can expect to see a lot of reserve players out on the field this afternoon and don't be surprised if Manny only makes a brief appearance, if he makes one at all. With the best pitcher in the league getting his last start at home against what may be a bunch of Triple-A opponents, that makes this selection pretty simple. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Monday Night Football Game of the Month, or my NFL Winners on Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Roots Upset Club

Sunday, September 28, 2008
medium Kansas City Chiefs (+10) Denver Broncos
1:00 PM -- Arrowhead Stadium

medium Oakland Raiders (+7½) San Diego Chargers
.
medium Chicago Bears (+3) Philadelphia Eagles
8:15 PM -- Soldier Field


Also Millionaire Sunday Night GOY.......CHICAGO

[Mr. IWS]

ppp

4 sf
3 tb, tenn

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Cowboys
Millionaire- Bears
Money Maker- Browns
No Limit- Chiefs
Insiders Circle- Bucs
Billionaire- Raiders

[Mr. IWS]

Ness

20* Clev Over

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

KO Chiefs
5* Shocker GOW 49ers
TKO Vikings
TKO Redskins

[Mr. IWS]

Root Sunday nite goy--Chicago