10-1-08

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al McMordie

Los Angeles over Boston in the Playoff Series

Boston will hand the ball in Game 1 to Jon Lester, but Lester has struggled in his career vs. the Angels, compiling a 7.78 ERA, with a 2.14 WHIP and .393 batting average against. And on the road this season, Lester had a 4.09 ERA compared to 2.49 at Fenway Park. These numbers certainly don't impress, and Boston will be hardpressed to overcome two starts by Lester in this short 5-game series. In Game 2, Daisuke Matsusaka will start for the Bosox, and his career numbers vs. Anaheim is even worse: 10.80 with a 1.80 WHIP, and a .350 batting average against. In Game 1, Angel manager Mike Scioscia will turn to John Lackey, who is 2-0 in two starts this season vs. Boston, with a 2.81 ERA and 0.69 WHIP and .132 batting average against. Ervin Santana will start Game 2, and he's coming off a season in which he struck out 214 batters, the most by an Angel in 12 years, since Chuck Finley struck out 215 in 1996. The Angels had the best record in baseball this season, and have not gone through many droughts this year. And Boston will find life difficult in the post-season without superstar Manny Ramirez.

PLAY ANGELS IN THE SERIES.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Redsox UNDER

Cubs

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

WEDNESDAY

5 Dime Brewers
5 Dime Angels
5 Dime Louisiana Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 3:00pm our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies 'under' the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Western Athletic Conference

BOISE ST. (-22.5) 44 Louisiana Tech 10

05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Oct-01
Boise State is 38-15 ATS all-time at home, including 18-2 ATS in conference home games when not laying 26 points or more (26-7 ATS in all conference home games). I certainly don’t mind backing that trend with a very good Boise State team that is even better than normal offensively with freshman Kellen Moore at quarterback and also very strong defensively (4.4 yards per play allowed teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Moore certainly proved himself with a fantastic 24 for 36 passing for 386 yards and 9.7 yards per pass play against a very good Oregon secondary and the Broncos’ defense held the Ducks’ great rushing attack to just 4.8 yards per rushing play in their upset road win in Eugene (Oregon would average 5.7 yprp at home against an average defensive team). Louisiana Tech started the season with an upset win over a bad Mississippi State team, but they were out-gained 3.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl in that game. The Bulldogs followed that misleading victory with a 0-29 loss at Kansas that was actually more lopsided than the score indicates, as Louisiana Tech was out-gained 4.5 yppl to 7.6 yppl in that game. Overall, Louisiana Tech has been out-gained 4.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl and allow 6.2 yppl against an average team. Louisiana Tech has had some big special teams play to atone for their bad play from the line of scrimmage, but Boise State traditionally has strong special teams and my math favors the Broncos by 34 points even with Louisiana Tech having a solid special teams advantage. Louisiana Tech has allowed an average of 334 passing yards at 6.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppp against an average team. Moore, meanwhile, has averaged 9.8 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback (after adjusting for Oregon being without starting CB Thurmond when they played Boise). Moore and the Boise State offense will have an easy time throwing the football and the Broncos rarely let up at home. I just don’t see how Louisiana Tech is going to score more than a couple of times in this game given that quarterback Taylor Bennett has completed just 26 of 73 passes in two games against Division 1A competition (Miss State and Kansas) and the Bulldogs’ rush attack is 0.8 yards per rushing play below average (4.7 yprp against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). The Bulldogs averaged just 268 total yards at 4.0 yppl against Miss State and Kansas and Boise State is much better defensively than either of those teams. I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Gavazzi--2*Boise

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al-
Opinion on Angels
Opinion on Boise State

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Cubs
Millionaire- Angels

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-1st of the '08 postseason (58-35 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 6:30 ET. The Cubs became the first franchise to win back-to-back World Series titles in 1907 and 1908, but haven't won since. It's an amazing run of futility for these "lovable losers." The Cubs haven't even been in a World Series since 1945 and of course have been agonizingly close to making the World Series in both 1984 and 2003. The Cubs won the first two games of the NLCS over the padres in 1984 but then lost three straight games in that five-game series. In 2003, Chicago was five outs away from advancing to the World Series but collapsed after the infamous "Steve Bartman episode," losing that series in seven games to the Marlins. The Cubs were the NL's best team in 2008, winning 97 games while batting .278 as team (2nd to the Cards in the NL) and scoring an NL-high 855 runs (5.31 per / only Texas scored more runs in MLB). The Dodgers traded for Manny on July 31 and he "turned things around" for LA. He batted .396 with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs in 53 games for the Dodgers. The team was 30-24 after his acquisition but it was the team's strong finish which really counted. The Dodgers trailed the D'backs by 4 1/2 games on August 29 but won 18 of their next 23 games to take the division by two games. No one can match the Cubs' postseason futility but the Dodgers haven't won a playoff series since they upset the A's to win the 1988 World Series. In fact, the Dodgers have been totally non-competitive in four division series appearance since that last title, winning just ONE of their last 13 playoff games. Can Manny make a difference in this year's team? Manager Joe Torre may be smiling with "his Dodgers" in the playoffs and the Yanks out of the postseason for the first time in 14 years but let's remember, one of the reasons Torre is no longer in New York is, that the Yanks blew a 3-0 lead to the Red Sox in the '04 ALCS and then lost in the ALDS in three straight seasons (from '05-'07). The pitching matchup for Game 1 is Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24 ERA) and Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96 ERA). This is Lowe's fourth year with LA and he entered this season with a modest 40-37 record, as LA was 52-50 in his starts. He ended the regular season on quite a roll, going 5-1 with a 0.94 ERA over his final nine starts (but the team was just 5-4 ). However, one can't ignore these numbers. He owns a 2.30 ERA at Dodger Stadium in '08 (17 starts) but a 4.42 ERA in 17 road starts. He'll be facing a Chicago team which went 52-26 in Wrigley Field this season, outscoring opponents 5.60-to-4.19 RPG. The Dodgers will face Ryan Dempster. Dempstrer was a starter with the Marlins in the beginning of his career (won 29 games in '00 and '01) but was the Cubs' closer the last three seasons (85 saves). Piniella returned him to the starting rotation this year and Dempster has delivered "big time." Since the All Star break he's allowed two ERs or less in 10 of his 13 starts and he's been totally dominant in Wrigley all season. He is 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA at home, with the Cubs going 16-4 in his 20 home starts. The Dodgers are just 36-45 on the road this year (outscored 4.31-4.73) and are only 53-56 on the season vs right-handers (4.0 RPG). That includes going 22-33 vs righties on the road, averaging 3.7 RPG. Manny is Manny but Dempster is too tough here at Wrigley to go against. Lowe's road ERA is more than two runs higher than his home ERA and the Cubs are 40-20 here in Wrigley vs right-handers, averaging 5.2 RPPG. Las Vegas Insider on the Chi Cubs.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
boise under

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

2% Boise St