10-2-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY

10 Dime Pittsburgh

5 Dime Oregon State

FREE - Memphis

[Mr. IWS]

AL

At 6:05pm our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies drew first blood in game one behind a brilliant pitching performance by lefthanded ace Cole Hamels. But perhaps lost in that game was the fact that the Philly bats barely got the job done. There is plenty of reason for optimism on the part of Milwaukee as in that first game, 2nd-year starter Yovani Gallardo only gave up three hits in four innings and the three runs he surrendered were unearned. The Brewer bullpen completely shut things down in the last four innings, yielding only one additional Philly hit. In fact, had Ricky Weeks not committed his ghastly error earlier in the contest, the Brewers might have taken game one in what would have been a huge upset. If Philadelphia thought it had a tough time hitting Gallardo, wait until it has to face what is probably the best pitcher in baseball as CC Sabathia will take to the mound on only three days rest. If anyone can come back in a situation like this, it's the big (6'7", 290 lbs) lefthander who pitched the Brewers' last game of the regular season, putting them in a position to be the latest team to ruin the Phillies' postseason aspirations. If Sabathia can beat the Phils and their very inconsistent righthanded starter Brett Myers, then they only need to split the next two games and they will be in the position they desparately want: to have Sabathia available for the fifth and deciding game. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Daytime Totals Winner (we cashed yesterday on the 'under' in Milw/Phil), or my two Football plays (we cashed our FB play last night on Boise St).

At 2:30pm our selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Oregon State. Last week, we had the Beavers over USC as our Thursday Night Game of the Month for September, and Mike Riley's men rewarded us with an upset 27-21 win over the Trojans as 25-points underdogs.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

thurs bases

UNDER sox/rays

CUBS(AGAIN)

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns:
Blue Chip.....Rays/White Soxs Under
Roast..........Cubs




BEN BURNS
BIG EAST GOY

I'm taking the points with PITTSBURGH. I have a lot of respect for South Florida but I also believe that Pittsburgh is much better than most people think. Keep in mind that the Panthers entered the season with a top 25 ranking and were being hailed as one of Pittsburgh's best teams in several years. Many bettors are very down on the Panthers, as they have gotten off to an 0-4 ATS start this season. However, a closer look shows that they're still 3-1 SU and that the lone loss came in their first game and was by only 10 points. Yes, that was a devastating loss in the opener but the Panthers have bounced back with three straight "character" wins. Looking back to last year and we find that the Panthers are 6-5 SU their last 11 games but that NONE of their five losses came by greater than 11 points. Given their tendency to avoid getting blown out, it's no surprise to find that they are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. The Bulls do come off an impressive beatdown of NC State, which has helped to keep tonight's line generously high. However, it should be noted that their three previous games were all decided by eight points or less. The Bulls beat a Sun Belt Conference team (Florida International) which was winless at the time, by only eight points. They were also taken to overtime by a Central Florida team which has been outscored by a 92-20 margin by Boston College and Utep in two games since that time. The Bulls' lone home game vs. a 1-A team (they did blowout 1-AA Tennessee Martin) resulted in a 3-point win over Kansas. These teams have met five times since 2001. South Florida has won three of those games, including each of the last two. However, none of the Bulls' three victories came by greater than 11 points. Conversely, Pittsburgh's two victories (2004 and 2005) both came by a minimum of 14 points. While the Panthers have now gone 0-5 ATS their last five September games, they typically tend to get going as the weather gets a bit cooler in October. In fact, they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 games played in October. While they didn't cover the spread last week at Syracuse, the Panthers can take some positives from the game. That's because they were trailing 24-16 in the fourth quarter. Faced with a fourth-and-inches at their 33, the usually conservative coach Dave Wannstedt elected to go for it. The gamble paid off and Pitt. never looked back, outscoring Syracuse by an 18-0 margin in the fourth quarter. It was the biggest deficit that the Panthers have ever overcome under Wannestedt and it gives them plenty of confidence, as does the fact that they were a healthy 11 of 18 on 3rd down. In fact, it should also be noted that the Panthers were also 4-for-4 on fourth down against Iowa the previous week, although all of those fourth down plays came while on the Hawkeyes' side of the 50. Either way, I believe that those are the type of things that build positive momentum and I expect the Panthers to carry that momentum into this evening's extremely important game. Note that the Panthers are 3-1 ATS the last four times they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent and is a profitable 27-15-2 ATS their last 44 in that situation. Look for them to build on those stats as they take this evening's game down to the wire with a solid shot at the upset. *Big East GOY





BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR

I'm laying the points with UTAH. I was on Oregon State in its victory over USC, so I do have a healthy respect for the Beavers. However, I expect the venue and the situation to prove too much for the still relatively young Beavers to handle. For starters, it's a natural letdown spot after recording one of the biggest upsets in team history. Additionally, the Beavers have already lost both their road games, most recently getting crushed 45-14 at Penn State. While they don't get nearly as much recognition as the Nittany Lions, the Utes are also a very strong team. They're already 5-0 including a victory at Michigan. Looking back to last season and we find that the Utes have won 13 of their last 14 games (including the win over Navy in the bowl game) with the lone loss coming at BYU. Last season, Utah began the year with a loss at Oregon State, suffering key injuries in the game. The Utes followed that up by losing their home opener vs. Air Force the following week. However, they have responded by winning seven straight games here with each of those victories coming by a minimum of 16 points. The Utes believe that they have the talent to go undefeated this season and get to a BCS Bowl game. They do still have tough games vs. TCU and BYU on tap but they get both those games at home. The win over Michigan was a big help to their case and they know that a convincing blowout win over the Pac-10 team that defeated #1 USC will also go a long way. The fact that the Beavers beat them last year and the fact that the Beavers beat USC last week will ensure that the Utes are fully focused on the task at hand. The Utes have been excellent as favorites of this size in recent seasons. In fact, they're a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. This is a chance to get revenge from last year and make a statement nationally. Look for them to respond with a convincing double-digit victory. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Root...

Chairman- Utah
Millionaire- Brewers

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

NLDS Game of the Year 20*

Maybe the Cubs are destined to NEVER win? The Cubs became the first franchise to win back-to-back World Series titles in 1907 and 1908, but haven't won since. However, the Cubs were the NL's best team in 2008, winning 97 games while batting .278 as team and scoring an NL-high 855 runs (5.31 per). The Cubs opened the NLDS on Wednesday having gone 52-26 in Wrigley Field this season, outscoring opponents 5.60-to-4.19 RPG. They were facing LA's veteran righty Derek Lowe, whose road ERA (4.42) was more than two runs higher than his home ERA (2.30), which fit perfectly for Chicago, as the Cubs were 40-20 in Wrigley vs right-handers, averaging 5.2 RPG. Pitching for Chicago was Ryan Dempster, who was 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA at home in '08, with the Cubs going 16-4 in his 20 home starts. The Dodgers were just 36-45 on the road this year (outscored 4.31-4.73) and only 53-56 on the season vs right-handers (4.0 RPG). That includes going 22-33 vs righties on the road, averaging 3.7 RPG. So what happens? The Cubs took a 2-0 lead into the fifth inning but Dempster was hardly sharp for the Cubs. Dempster's lack on control finally caught up to him that inning (he would walk seven batters in 4.2 innings, tying a career high), when James Loney's hit a grand slam in the fifth. For good measure, Manny Ramirez would add his 25th career postseason HR and Russell Martin had a solo HR in the ninth. The Cubs out-hit the Dodgers 9-8 but Soriano (batting leadoff) was 0-for-5 with two strikeouts and Fukudome (batting second) went 0-for-4 with one strikeout. The Cubs haven't had a postseason win since Game 4 of the 2003 NLCS against Florida. Chicago lost the final three games of that series and was swept last year by Arizona in the NLDS. That makes seven straight postseason losses. As for LA, it was just the team's second postseason win in 14 games since 1988. Obviously, Game 2 is a "must win" game for the Cubbies. Carlos Zambrano gets the start for Chicago and he's NEVER won a postseason game. He threw Chicago's first no-hitter in 36 years on September 14 against Houston in a game moved to Milwaukee due to Hurricane Ike, striking out 10 Astros. However, in his two starts since, lasted only 6.1 innings while allowing nine hits and 13 ERs for an 18.47 ERA. Zambrano went 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA two starts versus the Dodgers this season, allowing 19 hits in 14.2 innings. In three career starts at Wrigley Field vs LA, he's 0-2 with a 5.12 ERA. None of those numbers inspire confidence but then no one saw his no-hitter coming, either. Chad Billingsley opened the '08 season 0-4 with a 6.87 ERA but wound up as LA's best pitcher this year. He finished 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA, allowing three ERs or less in 22 of his last 28 starts. However, he's in just his third season and let's note that LA was just 6-10 in his road starts TY. I'm backing the veteran Zambrano pitching for a DOMINANT home team in a "must win" game.

NLDS Game of the Year 20* Chi Cubs.

[Mr. IWS]

bob
UAB 31 Memphis (-3.5) 30
05:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-02 - Stats Matchup
UAB quarterback Joe Webb has run for 465 yards on 64 rushing plays this season (7.3 yprp) and he’ll run all over a poor tackling Memphis team that has allowed 5.5 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team. Webb is 0.5 yards per pass play below average but he should also have success throwing the football against a Tigers’ stop unit that is 0.8 yppp worse than average. Memphis has been good offensively, rating at 0.3 yards per play better than average when starting quarterback Arkelon Hall is on the field and UAB has been among the nation’s worst defensive teams through 5 games – allowing 7.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team. That unit played surprisingly well last week at South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to just 353 yards at 4.5 yppl and I certainly see the Blazers being better defensively with their top two defensive backs now healthy (CB Springs missed two games and 1st Team All-CUSA S Dunbar missed one game – both started last week for the first time together). I’ll call for a minor upset with UAB

S. FLORIDA (-13.5) 28 Pittsburgh 15
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-02 - Stats Matchup
South Florida finally played a good all-around game last week and I was on them as a Best Bet. However, I still think the Bulls are overrated, as their defense has not played up to last year’s high standards. In fact, the USF defense has barely been better than average in allowing 4.8 yards per play in 4 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Pitt is a bad offensive team (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack) and the best part of the Panthers’ attack – their mediocre rushing attack – is likely to get stuffed by a South Florida run defense that has yielded just 3.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 4.3 yprp against an average team. South Florida’s pass defense has been the problem so far this season (6.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average only 5.5 yppp against an average team), but Pitt’s Bill Stull (5.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp) doesn’t appear capable of taking advantage of that weakness. Stull will have a bit more time to find receivers if South Florida’s All-American DE George Selvie misses his second straight game with an injured ankle and DB Carlton Williams is also listed as questionable. Pitt’s defense has been great against the pass (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp) but the Panthers have been soft against the run (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp) and USF quarterback Matt Grothe (286 yards on 47 rushing plays) and the Bulls’ stable of running backs should post pretty good rushing numbers. Grothe is 0.7 yppp better than average, but he probably will have just modest stats against Pitt’s good pass defense. My math model favors South Florida by only 8 points in this game, but the Bulls are 10-0 ATS all-time as a home favorite from 7 to 14 points and they are also 11-0 ATS at home after a double-digit win when not laying more than 14 points. This looks like a good game to pass.

[Mr. IWS]

PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT (Gavazzi)
2% south florida
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