Mr. IWS
10-03-2008, 06:56 AM
DR BOB
3 Utah St
Star Selection
*** UTAH ST. 17 BYU (-29.5) 34
05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Oct-08
BYU has won their 4 games by an average score of 43-11 and Utah State has lost their two games to good teams by scores of 24-66 at Oregon State and 10-58 at home against Utah . Those scores are the reason that BYU is favored by 4 touchdowns on the road, but the reality is that Utah State is not as bad as those two games make them look and BYU is not as good as their scores make them look. BYU is a good team that is 0.9 yards per play better than average with starting quarterback Max Hall on the field (6.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl). Those are good numbers, but they are not as dominating as their scores suggest and the absence of senior receiver Michael Reed (16 receptions in 3 games before getting injured) hurts the pass offense, as Hall had his worst game without Reed two weeks ago against Wyoming as the receiver filling in for Reed in the rotation caught just 1 pass. Wyoming was the best pass defense that Hall has faced (the Cowboys are about average) and Utah State is solid in pass defense too (6.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team). The Aggies were actually 0.1 yppp better than average against good passing teams Oregon and Utah (6.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.9 yppp). Utah State ’s defensive issue is a run defense that has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp). Oregon’s awesome rushing attack overwhelmed the Aggies for 425 yards at 8.3 yprp, but Utah State has given up a decent 4.7 yprp in their other 3 games (against teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team. Utah 58 points against the Aggies were very misleading, as the Utes averaged a modest 5.6 yppl at home in that game. Overall, Utah State’s defense rates at just 0.4 yppl worse than average, but they’ve been average or slightly better than average in 3 of their 4 games, with only the Oregon game really being a bad defensive performance. BYU should fall well below their average of 43 points against an underrated Utah State defense. Utah State ’s offense isn’t that bad either, especially now that Diondre Borel has taken over the starting job at quarterback. Borel is a very good runner (241 yards on 44 rushing plays) and his passing numbers (5.8 yppp on 82 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) are slightly better than former starter Sean Setzer’s numbers and Setzer couldn’t run. Borel had come off the bench in the Aggies’ first 3 games and rallied the offense more than Setzer could and Utah State ’s attack gained 580 yards at 8.5 yppl while scoring 42 points in Borel’s first start two weeks ago against Idaho . Idaho does have a horrible defense (the Vandals would allow 7.4 yppl on the road to an average team), but 580 yards and 8.5 yppl is impressive regardless of the opponent and Utah State rates at just 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively for the season and 0.2 yppl worse than average with Borel at quarterback. That’s good enough to score a decent number of points against a good but not great BYU defense. My ratings favor BYU by just 23 ½ points in this game and Utah State applies to a very strong 64-16-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 34-83-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation. I’ll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more and for 2-Stars from +27 ½ down to +24 points
3 Utah St
Star Selection
*** UTAH ST. 17 BYU (-29.5) 34
05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Oct-08
BYU has won their 4 games by an average score of 43-11 and Utah State has lost their two games to good teams by scores of 24-66 at Oregon State and 10-58 at home against Utah . Those scores are the reason that BYU is favored by 4 touchdowns on the road, but the reality is that Utah State is not as bad as those two games make them look and BYU is not as good as their scores make them look. BYU is a good team that is 0.9 yards per play better than average with starting quarterback Max Hall on the field (6.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl). Those are good numbers, but they are not as dominating as their scores suggest and the absence of senior receiver Michael Reed (16 receptions in 3 games before getting injured) hurts the pass offense, as Hall had his worst game without Reed two weeks ago against Wyoming as the receiver filling in for Reed in the rotation caught just 1 pass. Wyoming was the best pass defense that Hall has faced (the Cowboys are about average) and Utah State is solid in pass defense too (6.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team). The Aggies were actually 0.1 yppp better than average against good passing teams Oregon and Utah (6.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.9 yppp). Utah State ’s defensive issue is a run defense that has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp). Oregon’s awesome rushing attack overwhelmed the Aggies for 425 yards at 8.3 yprp, but Utah State has given up a decent 4.7 yprp in their other 3 games (against teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team. Utah 58 points against the Aggies were very misleading, as the Utes averaged a modest 5.6 yppl at home in that game. Overall, Utah State’s defense rates at just 0.4 yppl worse than average, but they’ve been average or slightly better than average in 3 of their 4 games, with only the Oregon game really being a bad defensive performance. BYU should fall well below their average of 43 points against an underrated Utah State defense. Utah State ’s offense isn’t that bad either, especially now that Diondre Borel has taken over the starting job at quarterback. Borel is a very good runner (241 yards on 44 rushing plays) and his passing numbers (5.8 yppp on 82 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) are slightly better than former starter Sean Setzer’s numbers and Setzer couldn’t run. Borel had come off the bench in the Aggies’ first 3 games and rallied the offense more than Setzer could and Utah State ’s attack gained 580 yards at 8.5 yppl while scoring 42 points in Borel’s first start two weeks ago against Idaho . Idaho does have a horrible defense (the Vandals would allow 7.4 yppl on the road to an average team), but 580 yards and 8.5 yppl is impressive regardless of the opponent and Utah State rates at just 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively for the season and 0.2 yppl worse than average with Borel at quarterback. That’s good enough to score a decent number of points against a good but not great BYU defense. My ratings favor BYU by just 23 ½ points in this game and Utah State applies to a very strong 64-16-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 34-83-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation. I’ll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more and for 2-Stars from +27 ½ down to +24 points