10-5-08

[Mr. IWS]

3 Star Selection
*** SAN FRANCISCO 23 New England (-3.5) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-08
I’ve been on the 49ers twice as Best Bets (1-1 in those) and once as a Strong Opinion (win over Detroit ) and I’m on them again this week against a Patriots’ team that is favored due to reputation rather than reality. New England was demolished 13-38 at home by the lowly Dolphins in week 3 prior to their bye week and the Pats have been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.0 yppl while being out-scored by an average of 16.3 to 19.3 against a schedule that is 3.6 points easier than an average schedule. It’s no surprise that the Patriots’ offense is struggling without Tom Brady, as backup Matt Cassell has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Opponents are blitzing Cassell into submission (he’s been sacked 10 times) and the rushing attack has been just mediocre (4.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.0 ypr to an average team). The real question is what has happened to the defense? New England has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average team, but those numbers are misleading given that the Patriots played decent defense in two games while getting destroyed by Miami , who averaged 8.1 yppl in their stunning win. The Patriots’ defense wasn’t really good prior to that game, as they allowed 4.9 yppl to Kansas City and New York , who would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for New England facing KC’s Croyle and Huard and not the horrendous Tyler Thigpen). If the Patriots are average at best defensively, and they haven’t shown in any game that they’re any better than that, then they’ll struggle against a good 49ers’ attack that has averaged 5.9 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. The Niners also have an advantage over New England ’s sub-par offense, as they’ve allowed just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. The 49ers held 3 of 4 teams to 4.9 yppl or less before Drew Brees lit them up last week and Matt Cassell is no Drew Brees. Expect San Francisco to keep the Patriots around their average of 16 points. My math model using this year’s stats only favors San Francisco by 11 points in this game, but New England ’s stats have been skewed by one horrible game. However, I decided to take the Miami loss out of the equation and I still get San Francisco by 3 ½ points in this game. Of course, I’d get the Niners by about 7 points if I also took out their worst game (last week’s loss to the Saints), but I’m trying to create a best case scenario for the Patriots and the Niners by 3 ½ points is it. In addition to the line value, San Francisco applies to a very strong 99-34-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 60-21-3 ATS when applying to home teams. You might think that the Patriots are due to kick some ass after losing to Miami , but the Pats are just 7-10 ATS as a favorite following a loss under coach Belichick, including 0-3 ATS after a bye week. I’ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-120 odds or worse) to +1.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al for Sunday

3 Indy UNDER
3 Philadelphia Eagles
3 Arizona
Opinions Niners & Seattle


Sunday:
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the SF 49ers plus the points over New England. Without Tom Brady, the Patriots' vaunted offensive attack has sputtered. As evidence, consider that, at this time last year, WR Randy Moss had 22 catches for 403 yards and 5 touchdowns. But since QB Matt Cassel took over, Moss has only nine catches for 111 yards. Perhaps we should not be surprised that New England has fallen on hard times. After all, the Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Giants last year, and for the last eight years, the loser of the Super Bowl has struggled mightily the following season. I'm not one to believe in jinxes, but it's worth noting that the only Super Bowl loser to return to the Playoffs over the past 8 seasons was Seattle in 2006 (notwithstanding the face that the Seahawks posted four less wins that year). Also, dating back to 1986, .400 (or better) Super Bowl runners-up are an awful 0-18 ATS as road favorites of -4 or less (or pk) against non-division foes! Finally, .400 to .799 home dogs of +2.5 to +10.5 points are a super 39-10 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss as a favorite of more than 10 points. With New England off a 38-13 loss as a 13-point favorite vs. Miami, we'll fade the Patriots and take San Francisco on this Sunday.



At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. System Game of the Month on the Cardinals.



At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. Take the Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

UNDER packers/falcons

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Packers and Falcons to finish UNDER the total. Regardless of whether or not, Aaron Rodgers plays, I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. If Rodgers plays, he may not be at 100% and the Packers are likely to be a little more conservative in their play-calling in order to protect him and also due to the fact that he threw three interceptions last week. If he doesn't play, the Packers will be very inexperienced at the QB position and will be even more cautious. Either way, after a season-low in rushing yards last week, we should be able to expect a heavy dose of the run here, as the Packers look to get that part of their game going again. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons figure to have real trouble scoring against this Green Bay defense. The Packers remain excellent defensively and the Falcons have managed a mere 18 points (9 in each game) in their two road games, both of which finished with identical 24-9 scores. Including those results, the Falcons have now seen the UNDER go 14-4 their last 18 road games. Meanwhile, the UNDER is 3-0-1 the last four times the Packers were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Look for this afternoon's game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again.

Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans Reason: I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. The betting public will always love Peyton Manning and the Colts while they're particularly down on the Texans at the moment. At 1-2, the Colts haven't played much better than the winless (0-3) Texans though and I believe that the "public sentiment" has given us excellent value with what will be a highly motivated home underdog. While the Colts are dealing with some key injuries (including Bob Sanders) I still believe that this is Houston team is better than it has shown. Keep in mind that the Texans were forced to play their first three games on the road due to the effects of Hurricane Ike. Last week, they traveled to Jacksonville and very nearly beat a very good Jaguars team, eventually losing by three. Note that the also lost a close one vs. Jacksonville in their last game.) Now the Texans return to Reliant Stadium where they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games and a highly profitable 8-2 SU/ATS their last 10. The Texans are 4-1 ATS their last five home meetings in this series. They had a season-high in yards last week and I look for them to earn at least the cover here.

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Miami Dolphins Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. I believe the situation strongly favors the home dog here. After back to back covers, the betting public is back in love with the Chargers. However, while their Monday night cover two weeks ago was reasonably impressive (that was a home game) they were very fortunate to cover in last week's win at Oakland. That game was a lot tougher than the score indicated as the Chargers were behind the entire way. Now they will be traveling across the country to play an early game (a situation which has given past Charger teams some trouble) which will also be their second of back to back road games. Note that the Chargers are just 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. While the Chargers are off a hard fought game and in a difficult travel spot, the Dolphins are coming off a bye and brimming with confidence after blowing out the Patriots prior to their break. The Dolphins are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine in this series and I look for them to give the Chargers all they can handle here, earning at least the cover.


Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 10/5/2008 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Arizona and Buffalo to finish UNDER the total. Last week's results have helped to give us excellent value here. Buffalo rallied to beat St. Louis by a 31-14 score, sneaking over the total. Meanwhile, Arizona combined with the Jets for a whopping 91 points, suffering a 56-35 loss. Obviously, the Arizona defense will be wanting to bounce back with a significantly better effort. It should be noted that many of those points were caused by turnovers. More importantly, note that the Cardinals had only allowed an average of 15.67 points through their previous three games, showing that they are actually much stronger than the score against the Jets indicates. As for the Bills, they're allowing just 15.8 points per game. They're also limiting opponents to a 19.8% third down conversion rate, which is the best mark in the entire league. Even with last week's game (barely) finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a profitable 8-3 the last 11 times the Bills played on the road. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 19-8 the last 27 times that the Bills played a road game with a total ranging from pick'em to +3. During that same stretch, the UNDER was a highly profitable 64-38 in all Buffalo games which had a line the +3 to -3 range. The Bills played back to back road games twice last season and they averaged only 12 points in the second of those back to back games, most recently a 17-16 game vs. the Redskins. Last year's lone road game played in October saw the Bills combine with the Jets for a mere 16 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 9-2 their last 11 October road games. While the Bills will be without receiver/returner Parrish, the Cardinals may well be without star wideout Boldin. Either way, I expect a fairly heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. Note that the Cardinals average 27 running plays per game while the Bills average 29. Look for a big game from both defenses and for the final score to prove much lower than expected, finishing below the inflated number. *Non Conference Total of the Month


Game: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. Detroit was a dismal 31-84 record with Matt Millen calling the shots. With the Millen era finally over and having had an extra week to prepare, I fully expect the Lions to play their best game of the season. Note that the Lions were 2-0 SU/ATS after their bye week the past two seasons. Last year, they entered their bye week having been crushed by a score of 34-3. However, with the extra week to recover and prepare, they responded with a 23-16 home win over Tampa. In fact, they came out of their bye week and went 3-0 SU/ATS their next three games, outscoring those three opponents (Bucs, Bears, Broncos) by a combined score of 83-30! Those results should give them some hope and should have helped to make the extra week of practice time that much more productive. While the Lions had a much-needed week off, the Bears are coming off a hard-fought and physical Sunday night game vs. the Eagles. Prior to that, the Bears played a very hard fought overtime game vs. Tampa. Despite having a losing record overall, Detroit was actually 2-0 SU/ATS against the Bears last season. The Lions were underdogs for both those games but won by nine at Chicago and by 10 here at Detroit. Interestingly, the Bears were also coming off a hard-fought (19-16) win over the Eagles, prior to that game. Looking back further and we find that the Lions are a healthy 13-5 SU (11-6-1 ATS) their last 18 home meetings with the Bears. QB Kitna, who is expected to play, has had particular success vs. the Bears since becoming a Lion. In four games against Chicago (as a Lion) he has thrown for more than 1000 yards and has had five touchdowns without an interception. The Bears, who may be without leading receiver Brandon Lloyd, have seen three straight games come down to the wire, all of them decided by four points or less. Although they managed to upset the Colts in a game which had a total of 43, the Bears are still an ugly 4-18 SU the last 22 times that they played a road game where the total ranged between 42.5 and 45 points. The Lions know this is a huge game. A loss and the season is pretty much a complete write-off. However, with a win here, they'll be right back within striking distance in the NFC North. I'll take all the points I can get, but I look for the Lions to rise to the occasion and win this game outright. *NFC North

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

20 Dime - Jaguars

5 Dime 6-point teaser - Eagles and Colts/Texans Over

FREE - Cardinals and Steelers/Jags OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Chairman - Philly
Millionaire - Houst
Moneymaker - Det
No Limit-ariz
Insider Circle - Miami

[Mr. IWS]

PRIVATE PLAYERS
4 chicago
3 giants
3 washington
3 arizona
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness (2 of 4 plays today)

The Pats and 49ers meet in San Francisco on Sunday but it will not be a Tom Brady vs Alex Smith (former No. 1 overall pick) showdown at QB. Rather it's Matt Cassell for the Pats and JT O'Sullivan for the 49ers. Cassell made his first start since high school in New England's Week 2 win at the NY Jets and O'Sullivan will be making his fifth consecutive NFL start, after spending the majority of his six-year NFL career as a journeyman taxi-squadder. The 49ers are 2-2 in the weak NFC West, which is good enough for a first-place tie with Arizona. However, let's note that San Fran's four games have come against opponents with a combined 5-9 record in '08. The 49ers' offense is a "work in progress" under first-year OC Mike Martz and the inexperienced O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan's completed 61.3 percent so far, averaging 240.5 YPG with four TDs and three INTs. RB Frank Gore is off to a very good start with 369 YR (4.9 per) and 15 catches but the OL has allowed an NFL-high 19 sacks and the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. Veteran Bruce had four catches for 153 yards vs Seattle but in his other three games, has totaled just seven catches for 73 yards. Neither Battle nor Bryant Johnson are proven WRs, while highly-touted TE Davis has just two catches in his last three games. As for the 'D,' the 49ers have allowed 30 points to Seattle and 31 to New Orleans, two teams with banged-up OLs and all sorts of injuries to their WRs. The Pats saw their 21-game regular season winning streak end in Week 3, as the Dolphins came into Foxboro and won, 38-13. Chad Pennington completed 17-of-20 passes in that game plus the Dolphins ran for 216 yards. Ronnie Brown had 113 yards (6.6 per) and Ricky Williams had 98 (6.1). Brown ran for four TDs plus threw a TD pass. After allowing 14 FD and 284 yards in Week 1 and 12 FDs and 256 yards in Week 2, the New England defense a allowed 461 yards vs the Dolphins. With a bye last week, you can expect the New England defense to rebound with a prideful effort here. Cassel has just one TD pass in his two starts and Moss just six catches for 47 yards in those two contests. However, with Welker, Gaffney and TE Watson joining Moss, the Pats own an effective pass-catching group. RB Maroney's shoulder is better (he's listed as probable) plus in LaMont Jordan, Sammy Morris and the do-everything Kevin Faulk, the Pats have more than enough options to get back on track offensively. New England's home loss to Miami was the club's worst loss ever in the seven-year history of Gillette Stadium but the Pats will take an 11-game regular season road winning streak into this game (8-3 ATS). New England isn't the team it was at this time last year but it's still infinitely more talented than San Francisco (entered this season with a 25-55 mark the previous five seasons). Belichick will present O'Sullivan with some coverages he hasn't seen and San Fran's OL hasn't been able to keep him safe so far. San Fran's high-risk, high-reward offense is in trouble vs the Pats in this one.

AFC/NFC Game of the Year 20* NE Patriots.


The Cards last made the NFL playoffs in 1998 and the Bills last qualified for the NFL's postseason in 1999. Arizona's nine-year postseason drought is the longest active one in the NFL, while Buffalo's streak of eight consecutive playoff-less years ranks tied for second-most with the Lions. So what do we have here? The Cards are just 2-2 but find themselves in a tie for first in the very weak NFC West (with the 49ers, of all teams), while the 4-0 Bills are one of just THREE unbeatens in all of the NFL (Titans are also 4-0 and the Giants are 3-0). Are the Bills really this good? I don't think so, at all. They opened with an easy win in Week 1 against a Seattle team devastated with injuries and one which never has traveled with much success in the Eastern time zone. In Week 2, the Bills won at 20-16 Jacksonville, a team with a weak set of WRs and a depleted OL, after trailing 16-10 with under 4 1/2 minutes left in the game. Buffalo then needed another late rally (trailed the dysfunctional Raiders 23-14 with less than 4 1/2 minutes left at home) to edge Oakland 24-23. Last week in St Louis, the Bills found themselves down 14-6 at half vs the Rams, getting outgained 210-96 yards in yards. However, the Rams just could be the NFL's worst team and Buffalo scored the game's final 25 points for a 31-14 (and cover). The point I'm making is that the Bills have really had an easy 'go' of it, as only Jacksonville (now 2-2 after an 0-2 start) looks like a quality team among their first four opponents. The Cards have to be glad to be back in the desert, after a two-week stay on the East Coast resulted in a 24-17 loss to the Redskins and an embarrassing 56-28 loss to the Jets. Arizona lost more than a game against the Jets, as Anquan Boldin almost had his head removed by two Jet defenders and will almost surely miss this game. However, early reports are that he won't be out for long, which is good news for Arizona's chances to break its playoff drought this year (I called for that to happen in the preseason). Even without Boldin (19 catches and five TDs the last three games), I expect Arizona to win here and the pointsprad is such that a win almost guarantees a cover. Warner has been very good this year at QB (1,222 yards / 66.7 percent / 8 TDs and 4 INTs) and while Arizona's running game may NEVER "come around," the Cards know the importance of this game. With Seattle struggling this year, the Cards can win this division. They've opened with three road games in their first four and next week they get the Cowboys at home. A bye follows and then its another stretch of three road games in four weeks. Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a non-division home favorite (opening number) and while the Cards could move to being a small home dog in this one because of the Boldin injury, the Bills are 'ripe for the plucking' in this one.

Las Vegas Insider Arz Cardinals.

[Mr. IWS]

burns

senators

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (3-0 in NFL '08 by combined scores of 92-33)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Den Broncos at 4:05 ET. Both the Bucs and Broncos enter this game 3-1. The Bucs lost their first game of '08 but have since won three in a row under the leadership of Brian Griese. The Broncos won their first three but then lost last week in KC, as the Chiefs ended their 12-game losing streak. Griese has been quite a story but one wonders how much longer the Bucs can overcome his mistakes. Griese was steady in his first start of '08 against Atlanta but in each of the last two weeks, he's thrown three INTs in each game. He did throw for 407 yards (67 attempts!) at Chicago but last week vs Green Bay, he was just 15-of-30 for 149 yards. The Broncos have few problems scoring this year but the team's defense ranks 30th in YPG allowed (408.8) and 29th in PPG (29.3). The pass 'D' has been terrible (276 YPG allowed with seven TDs and only one INT) and hasn't been helped by a pass rush which has accounted for only six sacks. Griese beat the Bears at Chicago in Week 3 (played for the Bears in '06 and '07) and will have similar motivation here in Denver, having begun his career with the Broncos (from 1998 through 2002 while starting 51 games). Griese's been operating without Tampa's best WR in Galloway and he's been ruled out of this game as well (foot). Antonio Bryant and Ike Hilliard have filled in well but Galloway's a huge loss, especially when trying to trade points with Denver. The Broncos own the NFL's top offense (435.5 YPG) and rank second in scoring (33.3 PPG). QB Cutler is over his health concerns of last year for Denver and enters this game with a completion percentage of 65.9, while averaging 318.8 YPG with nine TDs and just two INTs (98.6 QB rating). WRs Marshall has 31 catches in just three games and rookie Eddie Royal has 27 catches after four games. Denver's running game is not as prolific as in years past (121.3 YPG ranks 14th) but before the team lost four turnovers last week at KC, the Broncos had scored 41, 39 and 34 points in their first three games. The Buccaneers defense has been known for its "cover-2" scheme and making big plays. That has been the case in the early going this year, as the Bucs have 11 sacks and have forced nine turnovers during their 3-1 start. However, I just love the way Cutler is playing. The Broncos have averaged 34.0 PPG over their last five home games, while the Bucs are living very dangerously these days with Brian Griese's back-to-back three-interception games. Griese will want to perform well back in Denver but the Bucs are just 2-9 SU in non-division road games since the beginning of the '06 season. This pointspread has really come down and the Broncos double-digit win will result in an ATS romp. Weekend Wipeout Winner Den Broncos.

Good Luck..Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

5* La Angels

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

5* Patriots
TKO Colts
TKO Titans
TKO Bengals
KO Eagles
KO Falcons
Insider Dolphins

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al's Division Goy Is On:

Philly