10-5-08

[Mr. IWS]

Asa 5* ....
Arizona Cards

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008

5* Chargers at Dolphins: I'm not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. "Gimmicky," cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the "Wildcat" offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami 'D'. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn't have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008

3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami's offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the total

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet414 PHI -6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 413 WAS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet410 MIA 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 409 SDC
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY** This line is at +7 at Bodog so I would advise you to get it while you can. Analysis to come.



Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 IND -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 406 HOU
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet430 JAC -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 429 PIT
Analysis:
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at Bookmaker.com



This game is an absolute gift at this price - considering that Jacksonville has been pretty much the only NFL team to enjoy success against Pittsburgh over the past 10 years.



It's even more of a gift considering that Pittsburgh is coming off TWO highly physical games in back-to-back weeks (Philadelphia/Baltimore)....so physical - that both of its top running backs are banged up (one for the year).



This means Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to throw behind an offensive line that - to put it lightly - doesn't have a prayer this Sunday with the recent injury to guard Kendall Simmons.



When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more than 20 times a game - the Steelers are a terrible 1-7 ATS in the last eight situations.



Jacksonville picks up a BIG VICTORY to keep them from going under .500 (a huge factor in the NFL) and moves the Pittsburgh Steelers to 0-15 ATS in their last 15 road defeats. They've failed to cover the previous 14 by more than 11 points!

[Mr. IWS]

tephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet422 DEN / 421 TAM Over 48.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Buccaneers-Broncos Over 48

Analysis: The Denver Broncos have gone 'over' in all four of their matchups this season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos can't stop anybody, allowing an average of 34.3 points in their last three games, while averaging nearly 34 points.

The Broncos have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL. Their linebackers are below average, too. In addition, cornerback Dre Bly has slowed up considerably. Tampa Bay can attack this. The Buccaneers don't have great skill position players, but they have a very sharp offensive-minded coach in Jon Gruden. He'll have veteran Brian Griese probe Denver's many weak spots. Earnest Graham is an underrated running back and veteran Warrick Dunn can be effective, too, versus this defense. The Buccaneers have gone 'over' in eight of their last 10 games.

Tampa Bay's defense is good, but small. It's not a dominant unit. Jay Cutler certainly can pass on the Buccaneers. Brandon Marshall may be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now. Denver has gone 'over' in 14 of its past 17 home games. The Broncos also have gone 'over' 81 percent of the time during their last 27 games on grass. The Broncos also are 11-1 to the 'over' following a loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Vernon Croy's **20 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK** (76% Overall this NFL Season)
Ungraded
Handicapper: Vernon Croy
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: 20 Units, Take the Under, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are solid defensively. New England's defense has allowed just 19.3 ppg this season and 10 points in their only road game while the 49ers defense has allowed just 262.5 ypg at home this season and 18 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 games as a home dog of 3 points or less and the Patriots offense has struggled without Tom Brady this season averaging just 16.3 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 home games and their offense will not be able to get much done against the Patriots veteran defense. The O/U is 5-11 for the Patriots in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and I look for an offensive struggle by both of these teams Sunday afternoon. Take the Under as my NFL Total of the Week and make sure you get on my NFL Smash of the Year which I have winning hands down Sunday as my 76% season run continues.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Sirody
League: NFL
Event: Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles on 10/05/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Philadelphia and Washington have made it a habit of going under, turning the trick in 20 of the past 31 meetings. The trend that grabbed my attention is the one that reveals the Skins going under in 19 of 23 games on the road versus good defensive teams--allowing less than 285 yards per game since '92. The Eagles have slipped under in 12 of 15 as favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 and in 24 of their last 31 at home in October.

[Mr. IWS]

The Prezzz
League: NFL
Event: Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion:
8* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at Dallas
Conditions: 70 degrees with light winds swirling inside the mostly enclosed venue It was just a matter of time before the Cowboys experienced the bad "T.O Factor" and their first bit of adversity in 2008. After sleepwalking through a 26-24 loss to the Washington Redskins Sunday afternoon, the Boyz received their quarterly wakeup call. The call that nearly all NFL teams receive. Ask the Broncos? Dallas was admiring themselves far too much heading into last week's divisional matchup against Washington -- that all changed their home loss to the hated Skins.

Bengals' defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who spent 10-plus years with the Cowboys as an assistant coach and coordinator and is now the Bengals' DC. He knows the subtle weaknesses of Tony Romo and will force his hand early on in this game. Expect the Bengals to give up everything underneath on Sunday afternoon, but eventually realize that Romo has grown enough to exploit the soft holes in their zones.

We expect zero man coverage from the Bengals, little to no blitzing and a ton of exotic looks. If Cincy had an ounce of talent on the stop-side of the football we'd consider giving them a chance and jump head first on the 17-points Dallas is giving up. Romo is careless, that's his gunslinger mentality, and he'll give the Bengals more than one short field on Sunday.

The winless Bengals are a mess; and with or without Carson Palmer this game is all about offense, big plays by both defenses and a lot of points as a result. With Palmer under center the two teams will combine to cross the 60-point mark, without him the contest still topples 50 in total points. There's no guarantee Palmer will play (TP sources report he will throw on Thursday, practice on Friday and start Sunday), but the Cowboys are the real story here. They will be more balanced in their play calling and shred a piss pour Cincy defense. Dallas can throw four capable receivers at the Bengals defense and Cincinnati has no matchup answer for TE Jason Witten.

However, Dallas' pass defense is suspect, and no matter who is tossing the football to Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh -- this is the strongest total on the Week 5 card.

Once Palmer is announced as the starter for Sunday's game, the total in this game will creep upward. Get down on the current 44 mark now.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in October.

Cowboys score at least 35 points Sunday making this a Big Game OVER the TOTAL play.

8 UNIT Play on the OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond
1 2008-10-04 RON RAYMOND'S NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET PICK
Pick # 1 Miami Dolphins (6.5)



2008-10-04 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Pick # 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Denver Broncos Under 46.5 -1

[Mr. IWS]

Al Demarco 25 Dimer
Denver Broncos -3

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock:
5* 49ers

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning
playmaker/ Baltimore

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel
20* Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Hansen AFC GOY is on the Houston Texans,

[Mr. IWS]

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

5* Total Of The Month Denver/tampa Under
3* Giants
3* Cardinals
3* Cinci/dallas Over

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

Take Over 47 (POD) between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans
(Sunday 1pm Eastern).

Take Arizona -1 over Buffalo (Sunday 4:15pm Eastern).

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

ARIZONA

[Mr. IWS]

yourwinningpicks nfl full card:

****STRONG OPINION****San Diego Chargers (-6.5) VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Chargers are a team that no one can quite figure out as they seem to struggle to play complete games. They were awful in the first half against a bad Raiders team last week before rallying in the second half for the win. Now they cross the continent to take on a Dolphins team coming off a bye and who are feeling good after upsetting the Patriots the week before. They should play well again here at home as QB Chad Pennington will be able to throw against the awful Charger secondary that gives up the most passing yards in the league. That will enable Pennington to set up his play action passing which is his strength and also allow star RB Ronnie Brown to pick up nice yardage. The Dolphins are also in agood betting situation as they qualify for a 22-3 ATS angle that play on a home underdog after a bye. THE PICK: Miami Dolphins (+6.5)


****BEST BET***PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6) VS. Washington Redskins: This is a classic letdown/bouonce back game for these teams as the Eagles come off a tough loss on the road to the Bears while the Redskins are on a three-game winning streak and due for a stumble. The Birds have owned this series over the years, especially at home and they should be up to the task again this week. The ferocious Eagle pass rush will make things difficult for Redskins QB Jason Campbell and give little running room to RB Clinton Portis. Washington also is in a terrible spot due to an incredible 1-17 ATS angle that plays against teams that won as a huge underdog the previous week. To top it off, they also qualify in a 22-56-2 ATS road letdown angle. This one is clear as day. THE PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (-6)


*****BEST BET*****New England Patriots (3.5) VS.20SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The Patriots are just not a very good football team right now and that was before the Dolphins smashed them in the mouth two weeks ago. New England is seriously doubting themselves after that game and the bye week won’t fix the fact that the offense is a joke without Tom Brady at QB. The 49ers on the other hands have played better than expected as JT O’Sullivan continues to do a nice job complementing the great running of Frank Gore. The spread on this game reflects the respect the oddsmakers have for New England but realistically the Niners should be favored by a field goal here. I will gladly take the 3.5 points based on that mistake by them and also by the fact they the Patriots are 7-10 ATS under Belichick following a loss which included 0-3 ATS after the bye. Look for the upset here. THE PICK: San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)


****STRONG OPINION****DALLAS COWBOYS (-17) VS. Cinc innati Bengals: The Cowboys will absolutely roll here after their shocking loss to the Redskins last week. They will show no mercy against a Bengals team who will once again be without QB Carson Palmer. Without Palmer the offense is awful and don’t count on Ryan Fitzpatrick being able to generate much in the passing game. Tony Romo and company will have a field day against the pathetic Bengals defense. This one should be over by the half at the latest. This pick applies only if Fitzpatrick plays. THE PICK: Dallas Cowboys (-17 if Palmer is out, otherwise its OFF)


****BEST BET****ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) VS. Buffalo Bills: The Bills are the surprise team of the league as they come into this one at 4-0 with some impressive wins on their resume. This is a bad spot for them however as they must cross the country and take on a Cardinals team that has proven to be a very tough team to deal with at home. The Cards are ticked off after losing two straight and the defense should have an easier time with the less-expl osive Buffalo attack. Arizona is in a great spot as they apply to a 31-6 ATS bounce back angle. THE PICK: Arizona Cardinals (-1)

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

5* Over 47 Colts
4* Jaguars -4
3* Chiefs +10.5
3* Over 45 Bears
3* Broncos -3

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso Clubs

Chairmans
15 units Jacksonville -5.5

Best Bets
5 units Houston +3
3 units TB/Denver UNDER 47 points




Kelso

50 units Arizona Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law Plays

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Confirmed Sunday Nfl Selections (final)
2% Denver -3
2% Detroit +3 +$105
2% Arizona -1
2% Philadelphia -6

[Mr. IWS]

JB Sports

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Phillies -115 over Brewers
Blanton/Suppan

[Mr. IWS]

ROCKBOXSPORTS

2 STARS: ARIZONA -1

Arizona Coach Ken Wisenhunt's decision to stay on the east coast for consecutive road games in Washington and New York didn't turn out well as his team laid a big 'ole egg against the Jets. Arizona players talked openly about their extended east coast trip being a disaster and they have thoroughly enjoyed the return to home cookin' this week. This should come as no surprise when we consider that the Cards are 7-2 at home under Wisenhunt as opposed to 3-8 on the road. Pretty much night and day. At Rock Box Sports we love teams coming home off of blowout losses on the road. A fine example of this last week was the lowly KC Chiefs, coming home to Arrowhead to face division rival Denver after an embarrassing 38-14 loss at Atlanta. Result: KC wins outright as a double-digit dog. Teams in this position present a good wagering opportunity because of two factors. First, the public is down on them because of the recent poor performance and therefore the line presents maximum value. Second, these are professional athletes, folks. They do not like to be embarrassed and they tend to step up the following week in response. Thus, you have teams offering their most inspired performances in situations where the line offers the best possible value. We think this will be the case for the Cards this week, particularly for their defense which was thoroughly humiliated by Brett Favre. The Arizona D will come out angry this Sunday and if they have a great game in them, or even a good one, they will play it in this situation. Meanwhile, while the Bills are undefeated, they were essentially outplayed the last two weeks by Oakland and St. Louis, not exactly the best competition. The Bills face the additional problem of facing Arizona's potent passing attack with starting CB out for the game. This means that rookie Leodis McKelvin will be making his first career start against the talented Az receiving corps led by Larry Fitzgerald. Look for Fitzgerald and company to have a big day on offense while the Cardinal "D" should play well enough to help secure the win here.

1 STAR: TENNESSEE UNDER 33.5; SEATTLE UNDER 43.5; MIAMI +6.5, PHILADELPHIA -6.5; CAROLINA -9.5; SAN FRAN +3

BASEBALL SELECTIONS: 2 STARS: PHILLIES -115; WHITE SOX -145

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Sunday
3* Houston +3
3* Detroit +3.5
3* Arizona -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe


NFL Football
Lions +3.5 over Bears
Detroit is off to yet another bad start, but after firing team president Matt Millen this team must feel reborn and ready to head in the right direction. The Bears turned the ball over too many times last week against the Eagles and are lucky to have won that game. Detroit has so many weapons on offense and are lucky that a few defensive players on Chicago are hurt or suspended. This obviously is a must win for the Lions. Take Detroit.

Seahawks/Giants Over 44.5
Plaxico Burress will be out again for the Giants, but I don't think it will matter much. Both offenses have huge height, weight and experience advantages against the guy that they are going head to head against. Seattle has a few receivers coming back that have yet to play this year. Look out for this Seattle team in the next few weeks. Look for both teams to put up a lot of points. Take the Over.

Arizona -1 over Buffalo
The Cardinals will be without their best receiver today and the Bills are 4-0. So does it make sense that Arizona is favored against the best team record wise in the NFL? I do give this team credit, but in the last two weeks they had to battle back hard to beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Buffalo will be without their top cornerback and possible Marcus Stroud. The Cardinals should play good home defense and score enough points in their system to win this game. Take Arizona.

Jaguars -4 over Steelers
Pittsburgh looked awful last Monday on offense until very late in the game. The Steelers also allowed a rookie QB drive all the way down the field to tie the game up in the closing minutes. This would never happen in past years. The Steelers have no running game as all their backs are hurt. Jacksonville has two strong backs that will have a field day against a Steelers front three missing two of their starters. Big Ben is still hurting and I just don't see how the Steelers keep up on the road. Take the Jaguars.

[Mr. IWS]

D Malinsky
4*NE
4*TB/Den under
6* Jax

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports

They had a big day yesterday going 3-0 , all puppy dogs!!

NFL
3 Units on Miami over 44.5

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast & Phil Steeles
3'* Ariz
3* Tenn
3* N Eng
S/N play--Jac

[Mr. IWS]

BILLY COLEMAN
nfl
4*tenn
4*philly
4*dallas over
3*carolina under
3*n.e under

mlb
4*wsox

wnba
3*detroit
____________

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob update

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I’ll take Atlanta in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more with Rodgers playing (since he’s likely to be less than 100% and my not finish the game) and for 2-Stars at +3 or more if Rodgers does not start. I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion from +3 to +5 1/2 with Rodgers starting and at +1 to +2 ½ if he is not.

ESPN reports that Rodgers will start, so Atlanta is a Strong Opinion in this game.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
6 units on the Indianapolis Colts (-3) over the Houston Texans, 1:00
5 units on the Baltimore Ravens (+2 1/2) over the Tennessee Titans, 1:00
5 units on the Seattle Seahawks (+7) over the New York Giants, 1:00
4 units on the San Francisco 49'ers (+3 1/2) over the New England Patriots, 4:00
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

Pro Football Picks
10/5/2008
12:00:00 PM HOUSTON TEXANS(+3)
over Indianapolis Colts
ASA 3-Star #406 @ Houston (+3) over Indianapolis - 12:00 pm CST

Nearly 80% of the people wagering at the off shores are on Houston here. The line, however has not budged off 3. We’ll almost always side with the “other” team and this situation and we will again. We like Houston here. For whatever reason, it seems as if everyone is still enamored with the Colts. Until we see it on the field in 2008, we’re not going to fall for the Indy hoopla. This team is just 1-2 and their only win was a come from behind situation @ Minnesota. The Vikes led 15-0 with under 2:00 minutes left in the third quarter. Minny blew a number of chances to get into the end zone and kicked 5 field goals. Anyone with a semblance of a balanced offense would have gone on to win that game at home. Indy is REALLY lucky they are not sitting at 0-3. Peyton Manning is simply not in synch to start the season hitting “just” 59% of his passes and throwing 4 picks compared to just 3 TD’s. The offense is averaging only 313 yards and 17 PPG. That’s way down from last year when they put up 358 total yards and 28 PPG. The Colt defense can’t stop anyone from running right through them. Chicago put up 183 yards on the ground vs. Indy. Minnesota rolled for 180. The Jags acted as if the Colt defense wasn’t on the field putting up 263 yards rushing. Indy has now been out gained by a total of 407 yards on the ground in their three games. Their strong safety Bob Sanders is the key to stopping their opponents running game and he remains out. The Texans FINALLY get to play a home game. Because of Hurricane Ike a few weeks ago, this team is 0-3 but they have played the toughest schedule in the NFL to date. Not only have all three games been on the road, but all three have been against top notch opponents. Houston’s losses have come @ Pittsburgh, @ Tennessee and @ Jacksonville. We sided with them last week as 7-point dogs @ Jacksonville. The Texans deserved better as they lost by 3 in OT but out played the Jags for much of the game. One of the Jax TD’s came on a 41-yard fake punt. QB Matt Schaub looked really good completing 29 of his 40 attempts with 3 TD’s and no turnovers. Rookie RB Steve Slaton performed well both running and receiving and now the Texans get Ahman Green back to help take advantage of a poor Indy run defense. The overall offensive and defensive numbers are nearly identical for these two teams and Houston has played the much tougher schedule. The Texans were a decent team last year at 8-8 and they need this win very badly after starting the year 0-3. We’ll call for Houston to win this game outright.


10/5/2008
12:00:00 PM PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5)
over Washington Redskins
ASA 3-Star #414 @ Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington - 12:00 pm CST

Handicapping is as much about picking "spots" as it is anything else. Last week, we grabbed Washington +11 in a great spot to give Dallas a run for their money. They did just that and won the game outright by 2 points. The Cowboys were off two HUGE prime time games beating both the Eagles and the Packers on back to back weeks. A letdown had to be in order and was quite obvious as Washington dominated. The Skins match up very well with the Boys and have now beaten them 3 of the last 4 meetings. In fact, with Tony Romo at QB, the Cowboys are 1-3 against the Skins and 22-6 against everyone else. That was a great "spot" to take Washington. Now the reverse is true. This game @ Philly becomes a great "spot" to play against the Skins and ON the Eagles. Washington is now on the road for the second straight week off a huge upset win. Philly, on the other hand, was beaten on Sunday night in Chicago 24-20. The Eagles were held at the Chicago 1-yard line late in the game part in fact because RB Brian Westbrook was injured and didn't play. He's expected back here given the Eagles their most important weapon. The Chicago trip was a bad "spot" for Philly as they were off huge games vs. Dallas and Pittsburgh. Now at 2-2, the Eagles are calling this a must-win game at home. Another loss to a division rival, they already lost a thriller in Dallas, would be very tough even this early in the season. The NFC East is so difficult, you can't fall too far behind in the race. Philadelphia knows that and is viewing this as a gigantic game. The Birds seem to "own" Washington just as the Skins "own" Dallas. Philly has now won 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two. Despite the fact they have one more loss than Washington, the Eagles own better numbers on BOTH sides of the ball. Their defense is possibly the most improved unit in the league allowing just 18 PPG and 245 total yards per game. On offense Andy Reid's troops average 22 more yards per game and 6 more points per game than Washington. While Washington is playing well, we expect an "average" performance here with a young QB and new head coach in a tough situation. We side with a veteran Philly team that is now back into a corner after last week's loss @ Chicago.


10/5/2008
3:15:00 PM ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1)
over Buffalo Bills
ASA 5-Star @ Arizona Cardinals (-1) over Buffalo Bills - 3:15 pm CST Sunday.

PLAY THIS GAME BEFORE THE LINE MOVES! The Cards were embarrassed last week at New York allowing the Jets to put up an incredible 56 points. It was a tough spot for Arizona as they were on the east coast for the second straight week after playing at Washington the previous Sunday. Turnovers were the key culprit on Sunday as Arizona coughed it up SEVEN times. Those seven turnovers led to 34 POINTS for the Jets. Believe it or not the stats were actually quite one sided in favor of the losing team. Arizona had 10 more first downs and almost 100 more total yards. However, you have absolutely no chance to win in the NFL if you give the ball away that many times. Expect the Redbirds to clean that up this weekend at home. The Bills are the “surprise” of the league with a record of 4-0. However, they have to show us a bit more before we jump on the bandwagon. We give them credit for winning all of their games to date, however their schedule has been less than daunting, especially the last two weeks. Two weeks ago the Bills came from behind to beat the 1-3 Raiders 24-23. Buffalo was down by 9-points with under seven minutes to go in the game and they were able to hit a field goal at the buzzer to win. Last Sunday they played the now 0-4 Rams and were behind in the second half. The Bills finally grabbed a 20-14 lead early in the fourth quarter but it took a 33-yard interception return for a TD to do it. The terrible St. Louis offense, 30th in total yards per game, actually had 103 more yards in the contest. Therefore, in the last two weeks, the now all of the sudden mighty Bills, have had to make second half rallies against two teams that are now a combined 1-7. We’re not quite sold on Buffalo. Now Buffalo is on the road again this week and must travel across the country to an angry Arizona team. That’s not a great mix for Buffalo success this weekend. This team has historically struggled on the road (just 14-30 SU since November of 2002), and with such a short number on the Cards here, we’ll grab the home favorite.


10/5/2008
7:15:00 PM JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4.5)
over Pittsburgh Steelers
ASA 3-Star #430 @ Jacksonville (-4.5) over Pittsburgh - 7:15 pm CST

These two teams look like M.A.S.H units as both have suffered from multiple major injuries. The big difference is that the Jaguars have had time to adjust to their injuries as they came early on while Pittsburgh continues to get dinged up every weekend. Last Monday night the Steelers lost backup running back Mendenhall who was filling in for Willie Parker, they then lost Mendenhall’s backup Davis which forced them to go out and sign Najeh Davenport who they recently released. Getting the start this week will be Mewelde Moore their 3rd string tailback who had just 13 yards last week on 8 carries versus the Ravens. The biggest loss in my opinion though is Pro Bowl guard Kendall Simmons. Simmons injured his ankle last week and is now on the IR. The Steelers offensive line has been a sieve in passing situations this season as they have allowed 15 sacks which is second most in the NFL. The beating Ben Roethlisberger has endured is starting to take its toll. Big Ben has a bad shoulder right now and is listed as questionable for this game which would mean ex-Jag Leftwich would get the start. The Steelers offense has struggled this season and currently rank 29th in the league in total ‘O’ and 24th in points scored per game. Now without a running game, their best lineman and a less than 100% QB we can’t see them competing in this game. Defensively the Steelers aren’t much better off as they are without Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton and Nick Eason which also leaves their D-line very thin. The Jaguars will exploit this weakness with their potent two-headed rushing attack with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew. Last season the Jags were 2nd in the NFL in rushing averaging 149.2 yards per game on 4.57 yards per carry. This season the Jags are currently 12th in the league in rushing at 126 ypg and they’ll get the ground game going Sunday night at home versus the Steelers. Jacksonville QB David Garrard has found a rhythm after the first two losses of the season by engineering a game-winning drive over the Colts in Indianapolis two weeks ago and then leading the Jags to an overtime victory last weekend over the Texans. The Jaguars have won 18 of their last 24 home games and four straight in this series going back to 2005. The home team has been a moneymaking 15-5 ATS the last 20 meetings and we feel that trend continues here.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Horses

Belmont Race 9 - 3,2,4,1
Woodbine Race 6 - 4,6,1,2
Woodbine Race 8 - 8,7,3,10

[Mr. IWS]

sebass
20 teaser miami and houston
50 seattle +7
50 carolina
50 cincy over
100 tampa over
300 arizona

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
410 MIA / 409 SDC Under 45.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** 2* TOTAL **

Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Single-Dime Bet
420 NYG / 419 SEA Under 44.0 Bodog
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL *


Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
408 BAL 3.0 (-125) Bodog vs 407 TEN
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER ** (-125 @ Bodog)


Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Money Line Double-Dime Bet
412 CAR (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 411 KAN
Analysis: ** 2* TEASER BET **


PANTHERS -2.5 & BEARS +4 (2*) Teaser...


Sun, 10/05/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
428 DAL -16.0 (-110) BetUS vs 427 CIN
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **


Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
414 PHI (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 413 WAS
Analysis: *** NFL 3* TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***

EAGLES +1/2 & NY GIANTS pk (3*) Teaser Bet...

Yesterday we used the Teaser of the Day effectively by taking 2 Home Favs down to where they only need to Win SU for us to Cash...We will use the same appraoch today in the NFL...VR


Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
414 PHI -6.0 (-120) SportBet vs 413 WAS
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **
(Buy the 1/2 Point to -6)


Sun, 10/05/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
424 SFX 3.5 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 423 NEP
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **
(Buy the 1/2 Pt to +3.5...Patriots are -3 and -125 at most shops so it should cost you less than usual)


Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
406 HOU 4.0 (-120) BetUS vs 405 IND
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **
(Buy the 1/2 Point to +4)


Sun, 10/05/08 - 4:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
425 BUF 2.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 426 ARI
Analysis: *** NFL 3* GAME of the WEEK ***

PLEASE WAIT TO MAKE THIS BET BECAUSE WE ARE HOPING ARZ GETS to -2.5 SO WE CAN BUY IT TO +3...Like Wisconsin Last Night...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Heisman Club
20* detroit
10*houston
10*tampa bay

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Financial

4 units Baltimore over
4 units Baltimore
4 units Atlanta
4 units La Angels over

[Mr. IWS]

THE REAL ATS PLAYS

SPECIALS
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7 units on San Diego (-6) over Miami, 1:00
7 units on Jacksonville (-5) over Pittsburgh, 8:00
6 units on the OVER 44 1/2 Buffalo/Arizona, 4:00
6 units on Philadelphia (-6) over Washington, 1:00
6 units on Arizona (-1 1/2) over Buffalo, 4:00

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach

NHL 1* (Regular Play) Ottawa Senators Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh @ 2:30 PM ET in Stockholm, Sweden –

I have pasted in my write-up from yesterday below. The reason of this is because this is the same match-up, same place. The only difference today is that the Penguins are considered the home teams so they do get the last line change. However, I watched this game yesterday and it was simply unfortunate that the Senators blew a 3-2 third period and then lost in OT on a turnover. The Sens actually were very impressive on the penalty kill and, overall, Martin Gerber looked pretty comfortable between the pipes. With Ray Emery now out of the NHL, look for Gerber to have a big season. The Senators played well in most aspects of their game yesterday and they got done in by a key turnover in the overtime, plus a rare, fluke goal from a Pens defenseman yesterday. The Senators will bounce back today to earn the split after blowing yesterday’s game late!

Keys to this game include: 1) The Senators have big-time revenge on their minds after getting swept out of the playoffs by the Penguins last season. Pittsburgh outscored them 16-5 in that series; 2) The Senators improved in the offseason. There is a new attitude on this team with a new coach, Craig Hartsburg, and the addition of grizzled veterans Jarkko Ruutu (a former Penguin) and Jason Smith (he was Philadelphia’s captain). The move of Daniel Alfredsson to the second line will also help give the Senators offense more balance; 3) The Senators should enjoy success against a Penguins defense suffering with some significant injury issues. Two of their top four defensemen are out for this game. Sergei Gonchar is one of the top power play “quarterbacks” in the league and he’s out for a long time after shoulder surgery. Ryan Whitney has a bright future as one of the most talented up and coming two way defenseman in the league but he’s still out after having left foot surgery in the off-season; 4) The Penguins did have their roster raided in the off-season. They lost Ruutu (as noted above) plus Marian Hossa (big loss for Sidney Crosby), as well as Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Georges Laraque, and Adam Hall. Included in that group is some tough hard-nosed players and this really hurts the make-up of this team entering the season; 5) The Penguins were only 11-11-2 in the first two months of the season last year. The Senators raced out of the gate last season with a 9-1 October. This shows that Ottawa certainly has the capability to get off to a strong start and, the fact that they finished last season so poorly, absolutely insures that the Sens are fully focused entering the new season. They want this first game badly and are much hungrier in terms of comparing the state of minds of these two teams entering their season opener in Stockholm, Sweden. By the way, even though these first two games for these teams are being played overseas Ottawa is the home team for this

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* Ravens

10*
Eagles
Bears
Broncos
Patriots
Seahawks

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass added

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

100* Steam Denver -3 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Analyst: Eddie Roman
Never Lost 24-0 NFL Super System Crusher


Never Lost 24-0 NFL Super System Crusher

Denver Broncos -3 vs. Tampa Bay

Denver wins by 17 minimum. Trust me.

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies

500* Kansas City/Carolina Under
30* Indianapolis
20* San Diego
20* Detroit
10* NY Giants
10* San Francisco

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex

Super Play Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Bank

400% Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

HSW Early: 6* NE. Add Det and Phi for the 3tm P.

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

20* Big Drive Dolphins
20* Big Drive Vikings

15* Big Drive Cardinals

10*
Texans
Eagles
Patriots
Jags

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

5* Texans
5* Jags
Inner Circle Seahawks
Personal Best Cardinals
Platinum Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

3* Giants
3* Broncos
Hat Lions
Hat Cowboys
Big Gun Packers
Window Jags

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker's 4* Nearly Perfect Play is on PHILADELPHIA.

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp - Triple Dime: Broncos -3.5