10-7-08 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

10-07-2008, 05:50 PM

Dr. Bob Sports

Troy State (-3.5) 34 FLORIDA ATL. 27
05:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Oct-07 - Stats Matchup
Troy has a score to settle with Florida Atlantic, who upset the Trojans in the final game of the 2007 season as a 16 point dog to win the Sun Belt title and keep Troy from going to a bowl game. Revenge by itself is no reason to side with a team, but Troy is also a better team based on what each team has shown so far. Florida Atlantic has played better than their average score of 15-31 suggests, as the Owls have only been out-gained 5.7 yards per play to 5.9 yppl by a schedule that is tougher than average. I rate Florida Atlantic as average offensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively on a national scale while also being slightly worse than average in special teams. While those numbers give FAU an advantage over the rest of the Sun Belt teams, they do not give the Owls an edge over a Troy State team that averaged 5.3 yppl and allowed 5.3 yppl in 3 games against Division 1A teams despite facing very good teams Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road (the other game was against a decent Mid Tenn State team that beat Maryland and just beat FAU last week). Troy has been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively this season while being very good in special teams. Troy’s defense took a hit with the loss of All-Sun Belt Conference DE Kenny Mainor and the Owls were worse than average defensively at Oklahoma State (after adjusting for how good the Cowboys’ offense is and that the game was on the road). However, Florida Atlantic’s star DE Michael Hancock, who has 3 of the team’s 6 sacks this season, is listed as doubtful for this game. After adjusting for the injuries I get Troy State by 6 ½ points in a higher than expected scoring game. I’ll lean with Troy State minus the points and the Over (51 ½ points) in this game.