10-9-08

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Phils

Houston

Clemson Under

San Jose - NHL

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

Dodgers Under

Houston

Clemson

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL
At 8:15pm our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. If the regular season were to dictate the outcome of this NLCS, then the Phillies would be heading to the World Series to face the winner of the Tampa-Boston series, and they would need all four of their home games to do it. That's because during the month of August, these two teams met in their only eight contests of the season, with the Dodgers taking four straight games in LA from August 8-11, and then Philadelphia returning the favor in four straight at Citizens Bank Park from August 22-25. But as we've seen in the American League with the Anaheim-Boston series, the postseason does not always go according to plan, so don't expect the Dodgers to roll over and play dead in Thursday's opener in Philly. After all, in Philly's first game against Milwaukee with lefty Cole Hamels on the mound, Philly was very lucky to escape with a 3-1 win which most observers would say it didn't deserve. It's somewhat amazing that Philly and Milwaukee made it to the playoffs when you consider their team batting averages for the year were .255 and .253 respectively. By contrast, the Dodgers and Cubs had team BAs of .264 and .278, with the Dodgers' average improving significantly later in the season after the acquisition of Mr. Clutch, Manny Ramirez. Clearly, Philly will have to deal with some much more potent bats than it did in its series with Milwaukee, and also a much better opening starter in Derek Lowe than it had to face in the last series' first game. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY
10 Dime Clemson

5 Dime Dodgers in Game 1



10 Dime Dodgers in Series



FREE - OVER Houston/UAB

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman - Wake Forest

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
THURSDAY TOTAL OF MONTH

I'm playing on Clemson and Wake Forest to finish UNDER the total. Wake Forest is coming off an extremely disappointing upset loss to Navy, it's first loss of the season. Clemson also got upset last time out, getting knocked off at Maryland and suffering it's second loss. Both the Deacons and the Tigers committed numerous turnovers and I expect them to play this extremely important game slightly more conservatively as a result. Wake Forest's normally reliable QB Riley Skinner was intercepted four times, while also losing a fumble. The Deacons already wanted to do a better job at establishing their ground attack and those four interceptions should ensure a fairly heavy dose of the run this evening. Wake Forest Jim Grobe had this to say: "I think we've talked about it forever now, but I think that we would like to be able to run the football better. I don't know that there is any one area that needs the most improvement. Certainly we've put too much pressure on Riley Skinner. We need to balance out our offense a little bit." As for the Tigers, they're averaging 166 yards per game on the ground, so we can also expect plenty of running plays when they have the ball. As you know, numerous running plays help to keep the clock moving. While they did get gashed on the ground vs. Navy, the Deacons had previously done a decent job against the run, allowing 101 rushing yards per game entering that game. Overall, the Deacons are still allowing only 293 yards per game and just 17 points. The Tigers have been equally as good, allowing a mere 16 points per game and just 314 yards. In fact, over their last four games, the Tigers have allowed just 11.5 points per game. Not surprisingly, the Tigers have seen all their lined games finish below the total this season and have seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 in their last six lined games, dating back to last season. The fact that both teams are strong defensively is no surprise as Clemson returned a whopping eight defensive starters while Wake Forest had even more, at nine. Looking at some other stats and we find that the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 17-9 their past 26 lined games when they were coming off a bye. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go 8-2 their past 10 Thursday games. Look for those numbers to get even better as this evening's clash turns into a hard-hitting defensive affair. *Thursday TOM






BURNS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL

I'm laying the points with HOUSTON. I actually believe that UAB is a better team than last season. However, that's not saying a whole lot. Indeed, the Blazers were 2-10 last season and they were outgained by a whopping 188 yards per game in league play. The worst of the Blazers' 10 losses came at the hands of these same Houston Cougars. The Cougars dominated that game by a score of 49-10 and had a whopping 540-224 edge in total yards. The situation sets up nicely for another blowout. While UAB is off a tough three-point loss vs. Memphis last week, the Cougars haven't played since way back on September 27. The Cougars last game came at East Carolina. Not only did the Cougars win, but they blew out the #23 ranked Pirates. Case Keenum threw for 399 yards and three touchdowns and the Cougars managed a massive 621 total yards of offense. More impressive was the fact that they limited the Pirates to a mere 275 total yards. The final score was 41-24 and it could have been even more lopsided if the Cougars hadn't committed a couple of key turnovers, one which took seven of their own points off the board and another which gave the Pirates seven. Either way, now they take a big step down in class and return home well-rested and full of confidence. While the number seems high at first glance, it has come down a couple of points from its opener and it should also be noted that UAB is 0-3 on the road and has been outscored by an average of 19 points in those losses. Additionally, the Cougars have the type of high-powered no-huddle attack that puts points on the board in a hurry. Just ask East Carolina safety safety Van Eskridge, who had this to say of the Houston offense: "After they'd run the first play, they'd hurry right back up to the line and run that next play. Sometimes it kind of caught us off guard and took us a while to get adjusted to it." If Houston could score more than 40 points and gain more than 600 total yards on the road vs. an ECU team which entered that game allowing 19.7 ppg and 297.5 total yards, just think what the Cougars will do at home vs. a Blazers team which is allowing 36.7 points and 485 yards per game on the road. Look for another blowout with the Blazers falling to 2-7 ATS their last nine conference games. *CUSA GOW

[Mr. IWS]

PRIVATE PLAYERS (Gavazzi)
2% clemson

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer TKO - Wake Forest

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness 20* NLCS Game of the Year

Manny joined the Dodgers and hit .396 with 17 homers and 53 RBIs in 53 regular-season games for LA. However, it was the team's 19-8 record from August 30 through the end of the regular season which gave the Dodgers the NL West title. The Phillies ran down the Mets in the NL East for the second year in a row, going 13-3 from September 11 through the end of the year. In the NLDS, the Dodgers swept the Cubs, who owned the NL's best record, while the Phillies beat the Brewers in four games. The series opens in Philadelphia and features a terrific pitching matchup. Derek Lowe goes for LA and Cole Hamels for Philadelphia. Lowe got hammered at St Louis on August 6, allowing 13 hits and eight ERs in 3.1 innings of a 9-6. He then beat the Phillies in LA in his next start 8-6, allowing three ERs in 6.1 innings. Since that game (including his Game 1 win over the Cubs in Wrigley), Lowe has allowed only eight ERs over 10 starts (63.2 innings), for an ERA of 1.13. However, LA's mark in those 10 games is just 6-4. Hamels hasn't been quite that good over a similar time frame, but not by much. Hamels lost at St Louis 6-3 on August 1 (6 IP / 8 hits / 4 ERs) but over his next 11 starts (including his Game 1 start vs the Brewers), allowed two ERs or less 10 times (allowed four ERs to the Mets in a loss). His ERA over that 11-game span was 2.16 but similar to Lowe's hard luck with the Dodgers, the Phillies were only 6-5 in those 11 starts. Lowe gets an edge with his recent playoff history, as he has not lost in the postseason since he was with Boston when he lost twice against the Yankees in the 2003 ALCS. Since that time, he's 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in six playoff appearances, including his Game 1 win over the Cubs this year. Lowe is 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA in his last six outings versus the Phillies but the Phillies are 50-33 at home this year, including their two wins over the Brewers in the NLDS. Hamels faced LA twice in '08, both times going seven innings while allowing only two ERs (a win and a no-decision in a game Philly lost). It seems as if the Dodgers have been crowned this year's "team of destiny" because of Joe Torre and Manny but I'm not sure I'm buying into that. The Phillies lineup is much more dangerous overall than that of the Dodgers and let's remember that LA was only 36-45 on the road in the regular season. Hamels is at the least the equal of Lowe on the mound (I believe he's better) and I see the Phillies winning this game handily.

NLCS Game of the Year 20* Phi Phillies.

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB--OPINION - WF under