10-10-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

FRIDAY

10 Dime Memphis

FREE - Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

15* Friday Night Game of the Month

Louisville and Memphis met almost yearly from 1961 through 2004 and have played each other 40 times. The two programs used to be C-USA rivals before Louisville left for the Big East in 2005. Louisville has played just four games (2-2) this year, as the Cards were last in action losing 26-21 at home to U Conn on September 26. Unlike Louisville, Memphis has played every weekend this year and will enter with a 3-3 mark. Which Louisville team will show up here, in its first road game of the season? In their season-opener vs Kentucky, the Cards were held to two points, as QB Cantwell completed 20-of-43 for 157 yards with three interceptions. After beating Tenn Tech, the Louisville offense was terrific against Kansas St on a Wednesday night, as Cantwell threw for 274 yards with two TDs and RB Anderson had 176 YR with TD runs of 29, 56 and 52 yards. Then against U Conn, the Cards let a 21-10 lead slip away in the late third quarter, losing 26-21 (final score was a 45-yard interception TD with 2:45 by the Huskies). Cantwell was not 100 percent in that game (especially late in the game) and despite out-gaining the Huskies 508-279 in yards (with two RBs topping 100 yards), the Cards lost. Friday, Louisville will FINALLY play a road game (hard to believe). The Tigers have turned an 0-3 start around with three straight wins. They lost 41-24 to Ole Miss in their season-opener but played the Rebels even, out-gaining them 453-438 in yards. In Game 2, Memphis led Rice 35-20 in the 4th quarter but lost 42-35, as the game-winner came on a 69-yard interception TD with 11 seconds left in the contest. Memphis gained 462 yards the next week against Marshall but scored just 16 points in a one-point loss. Tommy West (in his eighth year as the Memphis head coach) could have let his team quit after that 0-3 start but actually, just the opposite has been true. Memphis has rebounded to average 31.0 PPG in three consecutive wins over Nicholls St, Arkansas St and UAB (not exactly a murderer's row). After passing for 373 and 364 yards in back-to-back losses to Rice and Marshall, QB Hall has averaged a modest 186.7 YPG in the team's three-game winning streak. RB Steele has led the way during the team's winning streak, averaging 137.7 YPG on the ground, while averaging 7.4 YPC. Both teams have nice balance on offense but I strongly favor the home 'dog. Steele's solid running has sure helped Hall, who had four TD passes in his last game. Remember, the Tigers return their top-seven pass-catchers from last year and five different receivers have TD receptions through six games in '08. Steve Kragthorpe took over at Louisville as its head coach in '07. The Cardinals had gone to nine straight bowls and since the beginning of this decade, had posted a 68-20 (.773) record. Louisville went just 6-6 last year and ended its nine-year bowl run. The school's 2-2 start this year is again a huge disappointment (remember, all four games have been at home) and I have no interest at all in laying points with this team in its first road game.

Friday Night Game of the Month 15* Memphis.

[Mr. IWS]

AL

At 4:35pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total.

At 8:35pm our selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Louisville (-6.0) 32 MEMPHIS 24

Louisville’s offense has blossomed the last 3 games (6.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) after really struggling in their opener against Kentucky (just 2.9 yppl an zero points). I expect Louisville’s offense to continue to play well tonight against a porous Memphis defense that’s given up 6.4 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Memphis has made up for their bad defense with a pretty good offense that has been 0.2 yppl better than average this season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) but the Cardinals are good defensively (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense), so the Tigers will probably not be able to put together too many long drives. My math model favors Louisville by 7 ½ points, so I’ll lean with the Cardinals.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
FRIDAY NIGHT MAIN EVENT

I'm taking the points with MEMPHIS. These teams have a history as they used to be rivals in Conference USA before Louisville moved to the Big East. Looking at their last eight meetings and we find that only one resulted in Louisville winning by more than a touchdown and that six of those meetings were decided by seven points or less. In fact, those six games were decided by just 3.5 points per game. With both teams having seen their most recent game having been decided by five points or less, tonight's game could well come down to the wire once again. Memphis has been finding a way to win of late. After having lost their first three games (two of the losses came by a combined eight points) the Tigers have now won three straight games. That gives them some momentum and confidence heading into tonight's game. Memphis junior quarterback Arkelon Hall noted: "We've kind of got our swagger back. We've got our groove back. Now we've just got to keep it going." Indeed, the Tigers are averaging a whopping 462.7 yards per game and are an impressive 23-for-26 in the red zone. In three home games, they've outgained opponents by an average margin of 476-315. Speaking of Hall, he's already thrown for 1,456 yards with eight touchdowns. Note that the Tigers rank second in CUSA with 14 quarterback sacks and they've only allowed seven. Louisville has also played well and the Cardinals do have the advantage of coming off a bye week. However, they lost a heart-breaker before the break and this will be their first road game of the entire season. Note that the Cardinals were just 2-4 on the road last year and that only one of those six games resulted in a victory of greater than four points. Looking back further and we find them at 7-11 ATS their last 18 games away from home. That includes a 0-2 SU/ATS mark when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Cardinals were just 1-6 ATS in October the past two seasons and the lone cover was a win by only four points. Look for them to have their hands full with a scrappy Memphis team. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Game: Louisville at Memphis
Prediction: Memphis

Ai Simulator shows a 74% probability that Memphis will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and also has a 48% probability of winning the game. This 3* graded play also looks good on money line play as well. I suggest making a 3* amount with the points and no more than a 1.5 star amount on the money line. Reinforcing this graded play is a very strong winning system hitting 85% since 1992 for a 29-5 ATS mark. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent off a road win. Louisville is certainly in a rebuilding phase noting they have returned just 4 starters on offense and 5 on defense. Louisville is doing fine defending the ground game, but Memphis HC West has a strong tendency to offset that strength. Note that he is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game. Memphis is also off a nice road win at UAB while Louisville lost at home to UCONN and were installed as a 3.5 points favorites. Many times it is difficult for a college team, especially one with new nuclei on offense and defense to have the resiliency necessary to play at a top level after suffering a loss to a team they knew they should have defeated. Conversely, Memphis started off miserably losing their first three games and are now on a 3 game winning streak. Simplistically, you have a road team that is lacking in confidence while the home dog is feeling quite good about themselves. That general recipe can easily spell upset. Louisville is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival since 1992. Take Memphis.

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Chairman - Boston
Mill - La Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
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