10-12-08

[Mr. IWS]

Dominic Brando, 13-5 nfl run with mostly all underdogs

Sunday October 19th NFL Week Six Executive Report:

Standard Against the Spread Releases:
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +8/-120 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +5/-120 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4/-115 over Denver Broncos
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +6/-125 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS PICK/-120 over Green Bay Packers

NFL Week Six Money Line Releases:
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +275 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +185 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +165 over Denver Broncos
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +190 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -125 over Green Bay Packers

Next DBIC Executive Report Due Saturday October 11th Anytime Before 3:45 PM ET!

Dominic Brando Sports

[Mr. IWS]

EZ WINNERS Sunday

5* Houston -3

5* Seattle -1.5

3* Atlanta +3

2* St. Louis +14

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Green Bay at Seattle (Sunday 10/12 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +1 (-110)

The Seahawks are coming off a truly gut-wrenching embarrassing loss. The Giants poured it on, winning 44-6. That dropped Seattle to 1-3 on the season. You can bet they are circling the wagons this week. There's nothing like that kind of embarrassment to motivate a set of professionals to perform better the following week. Is Seattle that bad? They beat St. Louis 37-13. Sure, that's the lowly Rams. But, you expect a good team to blow out the bad ones. Their losses have come against what can now be seen to be pretty good teams. The Giants are one of the top teams in the league. They also lost to San Francisco and Buffalo - two teams that were bad last season but have shown they are quite good this year. In Green Bay we have a bit more of a concern. They looked sharp out of the gate beating Minnesota and Detroit. But they have since dropped three straight including a really bad loss to Atlanta at home last week. Both of these teams have issues, but this game is in Seattle which will spell the difference. The Packers haven't won here since 1996 and Seattle is a good home team. And, they have about as strong a motivation as is available in the NFL after last week's stinker. We'll back them here to get the win.

[Mr. IWS]

Vernon Croy's **25 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR**
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals (Oct 12 4:15 PM)
Over 50.0 (-110.0)
25 Units, Take the Over, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have this game hitting 60 points hands down Sunday afternoon. Arizona is averaging 29.4 ppg this season while the Cowboys are averaging 30.2 ppg and the O/U is 16-6 for the Cardinals in their last 22 games as a dog. The O/U is 12-3 for the Cardinals in their last 15 games after a ATS win and the O/U is 5-1 for the Cowboys in their last 6 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys defense has given up an average of 25.25 ppg over their last 4 games and they will give up at least 25 points against this Cardinals offense that has averaged 31 ppg over their last 4 games. Both of these teams can strike very quickly and I look for s shoot-out Sunday afternoon so take the Over as my NFL Total of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

2008-10-08 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Chicago Bears /Atlanta Falcons Over 43.5 110




2008-10-11 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET
Pick # 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet220 DEN / 219 JAC Over 48.0 Bodog
Analysis:
Jaguars-Broncos Over 48

Analysis: The Broncos pass well and the Jaguars have the potential to run well. That goes hand-in-hand with each team's major defensive weakness.

The Broncos surrendered 198 yards rushing to Larry Johnson two weeks ago in a shocking loss to the Chiefs. Denver ranks 29th in defense and 25th in points allowed. The Broncos' undersized defense can't stop good running backs.

The Jagaurs have two good ones, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. The key for Jacksonville is a banged-up offensive line that is getting more healthy. The Jaguars have scored 51 points in their last two games as their offense heats up.

Denver should put up plenty of points against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary. Behind strong-armed Jay Cutler, the Broncos are averaging nearly 30 points a game and rank second in yards and in passing yards per game.

Trend-wise there are strong indications to an 'over,' too. The Jaguars have gone 'over' in 11 of their last 13 road games. The Broncos are 20-6 to the 'over' in their last 26 games, including 4-1 this season.

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NFL Side
triple-dime bet216 HOU -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 215 MIA
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
3*** BEST BET on: HOUSTON TEXANS
*If needed, the sharp player would make sure (buy?) his line is -2.5 or less.

It's 'Bubble Burst' time for our hometown Dolphins. Off H-U-G-E back to back UNDERDOG wins, the database tells us to fade these overachieving teams in their next game.
3-12 ATS since 1982 for ALL NFL teams off BB SU wins as a dog of +6 points or higher (in both games) against an opponent that's off a SU loss. These teams are 1-6 ATS since 1005.... and DOGS of < 7 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS (Dolphins).

If it's Game #5 of the NFL season, and you still haven't won a game yet.... it's time to most teams to break out with a BIG win. That's the case for the Texans, who are off a couple of hard-luck losses in a row... an are 0-4 SU so far in 2008.
25-8 ATS since 1908 for All GAME FIVE winless teams.... and 13-3 ATS since the 2003 season. Our qualifiers this week in those 13-3 ATS System are HOUSTON, DETROIT, and ST LOUIS. Home teams to PARTICULARLY well in this scenario.... as they have gone a PERFECT 9-0 ATS since the 2001 season (TEXANS).

There's a significant line swing in regards to the pointspread in this game. In a two-week period, Houston has gone from home dogs of +4.5 points to home favs of -3 points.
17-6 ATS since 1999: ALL NFL home favorites of -3 > points playing off a home game in which they were a DOG of +4 or more points. On a more recent note, these hosts arte 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years. Bring in a host who LOST that last game, and the original 178-6 ATS set improves to 10-2 ATS.... and a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in the last 3 years.

Now, let's take a look at last week's opponents for each team. Miami upset the San Diego Chargers last week... while Houston lost to division rival Indianapolis Colts.
8-1 ATS in GAME 7 or less since the 2002 season for teams who lost to the COLTS last week as a home underdog (TEXANS).... when they are taking on an opponent off a SU win.
3-12 ATS for all road underdogs who beat the CHARGERS last week (Dolphins). Or even BETTER: 0-10 ATS since 1984 for road dogs of < 8 points off a SU DOG win over the CHARGERS (Dolphins).

With the 2 Big Dog wins for Miami, they covered the pointspread by 13 points last week (they were dogs of +6 and won by 7).... and they covered the pointspread by 37.5 points against the Patriots (they were dogs of +12.5 and won by 25).
0-10 ATS in the HISTORY of our database: ANY NFL team off an ATS home win of +10 or more points... and an ATS road win of +35 or more points (Dolphins).

Despite losing their last 2 games, the Houston offense looked pretty good... scoring 27 points in each game (vs the Colts and Jags). This situation hasn't happened very often when these hard-luck losers take on a decent team in their next game. But the results from the database clearly identify who to put your money on.
4-0 ATS since 1980 for NFL teams off BB SU losses in which they scored 27+ points in each game (TEXANS) when they take on an opponent with a current winning percentage of .500 or better (Dolphins).

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes | NFL Side
double-dime bet216 HOU -3.0 (+100) Bodog vs 215 MIA
Analysis: If we look to the standings, there are 4 teams with 0-4 or worse records: Texans, Bengals, Lions and Rams. Well, I just don't want to be disrespectful for the other three teams, but the Texans are on a superior level. This team suffered with the Hurricane Ike earlier in the season, and I'm talking about the lack of concentration that the team should have on the football.

After the unexpected bye week, the Texans lost against the Jaguars and the Colts in two games that the Texans actually outplayed those teams. Against the Jags, they had +11 total yards than the Jags and last week they had +77 total yards than the Colts! The defeat against Indianapolis was a miracle, in a game where the Texans leaded 27-10, and in a couple of minutes they blew up the lead in a dismal loss. The good news for a bettor perspective is that they play again at home, which is a strong spot for them.

Matt Schaubb, unfortunately for the Texans, missed last game (QB Rosenfels screw up against the Colts with 2 awful turnovers) and he's back for this game. Schaubb after bad performances bounced back against the Jags and performed nicely with 3 TD's and 119.5 QB rating, and with Andre Johnson playing well, the Texans have a balance offense.


Steve Slaton has breathed new life into a dying running game, with 285 yards and a 5-yard average per carry. If Ahman Green stays healthy and runs like he did against the Colts, he'll be a nice complement to Slaton. Both are good receivers out of the backfield and the Texans have the right tool to make much damage.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins suddenly are one of the biggest surprises on the league. They slaughtered the Patriots on their own field with a huge upset win and last week they had repeated the same, beating the Chargers at home 17-10.

The key was the Wildcat formation, with which Miami took advantage of the lack of preparation of the opponents to counter this system. But the surprise factor won't last forever and the Texans should be for sure more prepared that the Chargers and Patriots.:

"They're causing a lot of problems because basically you're preparing for two offensive football teams," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of the Dolphins. "It's not only that they're doing something different. They're running their other offense pretty darn well, too. So, all of a sudden, your preparation is doubled."


The Dolphins average 126 yards a game and a 4.3-yard average per carry. Ronnie Brown has 286 yards, a 4.9-yard average per carry and six touchdowns. He and Ricky Williams (189) are the backs in the wildcat formation and both were the key players on the 2 wins by the Dolphins.

Although the Texans are ranked in 26th rush defense with 138.8 yards allowed, they've improved against the run in the last two games, in which they excelled at, containing Jacksonville's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, so I'm expecting a well prepared team to contain the Dolphins' running football.

Miami is overlooked in this game, the surprise factor will not be the same for this game, and we must not forget that in the last game the Chargers were in a bad spot for them: first trip to the East in a earlier game for them, here the evidences: QB Rivers completed only 46.4% of the Passes and the Chargers went 1-3 on the Red Zone Efficiency, and 0-1 on Goal To Go Efficiency.

I expect a huge effort of the Texans for this game, they need badly to win a ballgame which they already deserved, and they will face a team which comes from two upset wins, therefore a letdown is the most likely scenario. I will take the Texans in here for my first double dime pick of the season!



Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet206 IND -3.0 (-125) BetUS vs 205 BAL



Sun, 10/12/08 - 4:05 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Total
dime bet220 DEN / 219 JAC Over 48.0 Bodog


Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet210 TAM -1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 209 CAR

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet217 STL 14.0 (-110) Bodog vs 218 WAS
Analysis:
Rams +14

Analysis: St. Louis doesn't have much going, offensively or defensively, but this is an outstanding situation for the Rams. St. Louis was idle last week. Fiery Jim Haslett replaces the ineffectual Scott Linehan. His first move was to restore Marc Bulger back to the starting quarterback spot, thus greatly improving team morale.

The Redskins are in a flat spot following tremendous upset division road victories against Dallas and Philadelphia. Those games obviously took a toll on the Redskins, physically and mentally. It will be hard for them to take the winless Rams seriously.

Leonard Little is healthy for the Rams. That's huge because he's a premier pass rusher. He elevates the Rams' entire defense. Washington hasn't committed a turnover in five games. What are the odds of going a sixth straight game without an interception or fumble?

The Redskins also have key defensive injuries. Their best pass rusher, Jason Taylor, and best cornerback, Shawn Springs, missed last week's game. The Rams can keep the chains moving with stud running back Steven Jackson.

Keep in mind, too, that in the parity-filled NFL road underdogs of 10 or more points are 7-0 against the spread this season.

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet218 WAS / 217 STL Over 44.0 BetUS
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / ST LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

4:15pm ET / GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

4:15pm ET / DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL


GM 1:
The winless Rams return from their Bye week with a new Head Coach (Jim Haslett) and a new starting QB (back to Bulger). They qualify in multiple solid high-scoring situations based on that week of rest.
4-0 O/U in the last 3 years for WINLESS road teams playing off their BYE week. And.... 5-1 O/U in the last 4 years for road teams with REST off a DOUBLE-DIGIT home loss.
Even if we throw out the ?with rest? situation, the numbers are still good.
GAME FIVE non-div teams off a 0-4 SU start are 12-3 O/U... and 5-0 O/U as road dogs of 9 > pts.

This game has the highest line (Wash -13 > pts) on the NFL week six schedule. That works for me. 15-3 O/U since 1995 for all OCTOBER non-division DD dogs (RAMS).

Washington enters the game on a hot 4-game winning streak, with the last 2 wins as division dogs. In the last 4 years, OCTOBER home favs on a 3+ game winning streak are an amazing 16-3 O/U... and these teams went a PERFECT 6-0 O/U last season. We?re talking ?Pedal to the Medal?! When we eliminate the streak from our query and insert the previous DOG win, the numbers are just as good.
10-2 O/U since 2001 for GAME SIX home teams playing off a DOG win... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 5 years.

Combining the current form of BOTH teams seals the deal: In this decade, GAME FIVE or greater home favs off 3 SUATS wins are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U vs an opp off 3 SUATS losses in a row. The Redskins LOVE beating up on shitty teams (6-0 O/U L10Y favs vs non-div .250 < foes).


GM 2:
Green Bay heads out west on a 3-game losing streak, with the last loss at home as a favorite against the Falcons. A 90% System tells us to look for the OVER.
9-1 O/U since 2000 for Conference road dogs off BB SU losses, with the last loss as a home fav of -5 > points.

Numerous one-sided team trends for Green bay help to state our case.
11-0 O/U away in between home games... 9-0 O/U vs an opp off a road loss of 7 > pts... 4-0 O/U away vs NFC West teams.

The Packer defense has been leaking oil lately, allowing 25,27, 30, and 27 points.
11-2 O/U since 2002 for all GAME FIVE > road teams after allowing 25+ points in each of their last 4 games. Our numbers shoot up to 9-0 O/U vs fellow conference opponents.

Seattle has gone OVER in EACH of their first 4 games this year (4-0 O/U).
GAME FIVE teams off 4 straight 'OVERS' are 6-1 O/U since 1998 vs an opponent off a SU loss. Last week's road loss was ugly for the Seahawks, as they lost to the Giants by a score of 44-6. That result is a good sign for us.
In the last 4 years, ALL NFL teams are a PERFECT 10-0 O/U off a SU road loss of 35 or more points.

In a final variation that's already gone 2-0 O/U this year, we seal the deal.
15-3 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL teams off a SU road loss in whcih they allowed 42 or more points (SEAHAWKS) In the last 12 months, these teams are a PERFECT 12-0 O/U. Your 2 winners this season were Jets/Cardinals OVER and Cardinals/Bills OVER (and we were on BOTH of em).


GM 3:
The bar is set high for this week?s Top OVER, but the timing is right. This week?s high OU line will NOT scare us off. Since 1984, OCTOBER home dogs with an OU line of 49 > pts are 12-3 O/U... and a PERFECT 5-0 for NFC home teams.

With a big 41-17 win behind them, the Cardinals are primed for more high-scoring results.
NFL Underdogs off a SU home win in which they scored 40+ points are 12-3 O/U since 2004... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 4 seasons.

Arizona also figures to ?let it ALL hang out? on Sunday with their Bye week on deck.
So far in the 2008 season, HOME teams are 7-1 O/U before their BYE week. From a team perspective, this also holds up well as the Cards are 5-0 O/U before their Bye in the last 5 years.

Dallas enters this game on a run in which they have scored 24 > pts in EACH of their first 5 games. You think the Arizona ?D? is going to slow them down? Hell NO.
In the last 4 years, GAME SIX teams are 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 3 games... and a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 4 games.

Dallas barely got by the Bengals last week, and have actually dropped each of their last 2 games ATS.
Since 2002, NFL road teams are 12-1-1 O/U off BB home ATS losses... if they WON their last game in straight-up fashion. The Boys were favored by -16 against the Bengals, and won 31-22.
Last 10 years: 7-0 O/U for non-div road favs of fa SU non-div home win but ATS loss as a fav of -14 > points. Play this one ASAP. Late afternoon final score in the desert: 34-27.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet213 CHI -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 214 ATL
Analysis:
Bears -3

Analysis: The Falcons are a surprising 3-2, but the Bears have too much defense and savvy for Atlanta.

Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has shown a lot of poise and, at times, flashes of greatness. But he's going to have problems with the Bears' well-coached veteran defense that is at full force now with the return of defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who is a difference-maker.

Ryan has received a lot of attention, but very quietly Bears quarterback Kyle Orton is playing extremely well. He's thrown for 801 yards and seven touchdowns during his last three games. The Bears are 14-5 during the last 19 times Orton has started.

The Bears have played stiff competion - Indianapolis, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Falcons own home wins versus Detroit and Kansas City - two of the three worst teams in the NFL - and a crippled Green Bay squad.

The Falcons have failed to produce during the two times they've stepped up and faced tough defenses. They were beaten by identical 24-9 scores against Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Bears' defense is just as tough as those two teams.

The Bears shouldn't be bothered playing in a dome setting either. They just beat the Lions in Detroit last Sunday, 34-7.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Cover
20* Chargers

Reg - Bucs -1
Falcons +3
Jags Over 48
Cardinals +5

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons - Sunday October 12, 2008 1:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Over 43.5 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky Sund@y
4* St Louis +14
4* Jville/Denver U-49
5* Dallas -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Jimmy Boyd
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3/110 Chicago Bears Play Title: NFC Game of the Year
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
5* NFC Game of the Year on Bears -3 The Bears have been in every single game this season and have really put things together the past two weeks with a big Sunday Night Football win over the Eagles and a blowout road win over the Lions last week. The Falcons are in a letdown spot after a big upset win at Green Bay. This young team has not shown that it can play week in consecutive weeks and that's why each of Atlanta's wins have been followed by a double digit loss. All Atlanta has been able to do is run the football and the Bears defense will make sure that doesn't happen this week. Chicago is 23-8 ATS since 1992 versus good rushing teams averaging more than 130 rushing yards per game, including 6-0 ATS under Lovie Smith in this spot. The Bears are also on a 3-0-1 ATS run on the road. Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games against the Falcons. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6 and 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Take Chicago.

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: d@c Sports AFC GOY
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6/102 San Diego Chargers Play Title:
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
4 Unit Play. #126 Take San Diego over New England (Sunday 8:15 pm NBC) The Chargers are back in a must win situation after a disappointing trip to Miami last Saturday where they laid an egg losing, 17-10. That being said, the are hitting the Patriots at the right moment making their second straight trip to the west coast after taking down San Francisco last week. This eventually catches up to teams and that will become evident on Sunday night. San Diego currently sits at 2-3 in the AFC West and this is a must win game for them much like it was three weeks ago when they faced the Jets in a primetime game. Some questioned when one would lay nine points but that was an easy cover and the same will hold true tonight. New England is not the same team with out Tremendous Tom behind center and the Bolts will not let Cassell nickel and dime his way down the field. San Diego 28, New England 17.

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning
Baltimore, under sf/ philly - regular plays
under seatt/gb - playmaker

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NFL Total
double-dime bet204 NOS / 203 OAK Under 47.5 Bodog
Analysis: UNDER new orleans ? The Saints Monday night game with Minnesota went over the total but it really had no business doing so and that is creating line value this week. The Saints offense was decent versus the Vikings but not spectacular and, on the other side of the ball, New Orleans actually did a great job against the Vikings! Minnesota scored their big points off of turnovers and a blocked field goal. Offensively, the Vikes really couldn?t do much against the Saints and yet those just glancing at the scoreboard Monday would think otherwise. New Orleans now will take advantage of a Raiders club which, like the Vikings, has had troubles throwing the ball. Another weak passing offense means the Saints can focus on shutting down the running game and, in doing so, New Orleans will keep the Oakland offense in check. The Raiders are coming off of their bye week and the coaching changes they made during the bye week won?t help them any here. Those are going to take time to have a positive effect and the bad news for Raiders fans is that coach Kifflin, who was just fired, was actually getting the support of his players and now it?s like the Raiders are starting over again. This is going to do no favors for the offense and, as noted above, the Saints defense played far better than last week?s scoreboard showed. At home, and off a tough loss, the Saints defense will ?bear down? once again. Note that Oakland is 0-6 against the spread in domes and this will be QB JaMarcus Russell?s first ever start in a dome. It just is not shaping up to be a good day for the Raiders offense. That said, Oakland?s defense has played better than many expected coming into the season and they?ve had two weeks to prepare for what the Saints offense brings to the field. Also, look for a steady dose of running this week for New Orleans as they try to minimize the mistakes that cost them the game Monday versus Minnesota. Also, New Orleans? offense wasn?t as impressive as the scoreboard shows last week as Reggie Bush had two punt returns for touchdowns. The big total here is simply not justified! UNDER!

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy Rider | NFL Total
double-dime bet220 DEN / 219 JAC Over 48.0 BetUS
Analysis: The Broncos defense played well against the Bucs but it won't happen two weeks in a row. One thing to look at when taking an over is pass rush. It's hard to hit an over when the quarterbacks are always under pressure. That won't be a problem in this game as Denver and Jacksonville both rank near the bottom of the NFL in sacks. The Jags defense ranks 22nd in the NFL, allowing 344 yards and 22 points per game. They are beat up in the secondary and can't stop anyone from throwing the football on them, so expect Jay Cutler to have a huge day. On the other side, the Jags struggling running game should get on track against the Broncos generous defense. Denver ranks 29th in total defense, allowing close to 400 yards and 26 points per game. Last week was a fluke for Denver's defense and it will show on Sunday in what should be a wild shootout at Invesco Field. **2 UNIT PLAY**


Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet216 HOU -3.0 (+100) BetUS vs 215 MIA
Analysis: I'm a big fan of this Miami team as I took them last week against the Chargers. However, I like them more at home than I do on the road and I think this is a bad spot for them. Miami is coming off two huge upsets of the Patriots and Chargers and this looks like a big letdown spot for the Fish taking on a desperate Houston team with its backs to the wall. The Texans gave one away last week against the Colts but overall I they have played well in their last two games against the Jaguars and Colts. I heard that the Texans players had a close door meeting to talk about how big this game is with Detroit and Cincy on deck. With three straight home games, the players still believe they can make a playoff run starting with a win today. I think Matt Schaub has a big day against a suspect Miami secondary and Houston gets the win at home. **2 UNIT PLAY**

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Bonds | NFL Total
triple-dime bet204 NOS / 203 OAK Under 47.5 Bodog
Analysis:
I'm just not expecting both teams to come out and dominate the game offensively, as the Raiders are in transition off a bye week (firing of a head coach) and the New Orleans Saints are playing on a short week after a disappointing loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.



The total in this game should be 44 tops - so I'm imagining that we're getting more than three points of betting value here. New Orleans is on an 8-0-1 over run - but injuries and this particular matchup will end that run here.



Both teams will try to establish a running game, as the Saints will not find it easy to throw the ball against the Raiders - plus Oakland is use to defending a Reggie Bush-like back (Sproles/Tomlinson of the Chargers). Another thing that will play defense against Bush is the punting of Shane Lechler - he's simply the best in the league and I imagine he'll sacrifice 5-10 yards in punting distance to help his coverage team agaist Reggie.



The Raiders will welcome back RB Justin Fargas and will undoubtedly try to pound the ball at the Saints. New Orleans has done surprisingly well against the run of late, which should be enough to allow QB Jamarcus Russell to make mistakes in Saints territory.



The Oakland Raiders defense is rested and had the San Diego Chargers on the ropes two weeks ago, as a meaningless Tomlinson TD caused the game to go over 44. I don't expect this to happen on Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NFL Total
double-dime bet214 ATL / 213 CHI Under 44.0 Bodog
Analysis: UNDER falcons ? The Bears offense got on track last week thanks to facing a pathetic Lions team that is simply dreadful on both sides of the ball. Things change quickly this week for the Bears as they now must deal with a Falcons team that has covered both their games at home and is off of a big road win at Green Bay. Indeed, the Falcons are starting to build some confidence and they know that to win again at home this week they?re going to have to shore up the defense after the Packers threw for over 300 yards against them last week. Like many teams, the intensity of the Falcons defense is different at home in comparison with on the road and they should display a strong effort this week against a Bears offense that is in a tough spot here. Chicago is off of a divisional road win and they have another divisional game on deck with Minnesota up next. In other words, don?t expect the most elaborate offensive schemes from the Bears here. They will be looking to ?save some? for their upcoming match-up with the Vikings. This will simply be a game (at Atlanta) where the Bears will hope to grind out a win. A steady diet of running the ball and playing solid defense is what Chicago has on tap for today. As for Atlanta, they have a bye on deck so they?ll be up for this game as they look to take a 4-2 record into their bye week. The Falcons are a very strong running team but they?re facing one of the strongest run defenses in the league. The Bears struggle against the pass but the Falcons weakness on offense is their aerial attack. As you can see, this match-up sets up well for the Bears defense to have success against the Falcons while, at the same time, the Bears offense can not be trusted here. RB Forte, as you would expect from a young running back, has shown signs of inconsistency. Forte only gained 36 yards against the Lions last week and the Bears only gained 256 yards in their win over the Eagles two weeks ago. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game and too much weight shouldn?t be put into the Bears blowout of a weak Lions team last week. Also, Atlanta?s offense has struggled in their two games against stronger defenses (Carolina and Tampa Bay) and this turns into a grinding, low-scoring battle on Sunday!

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* Bears

10* Eagles
10* Ravens
10* Vikings
10* Jags
10* Panthers

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens NFL

8* Eagles

5* Packers

5* Jaguars

[Mr. IWS]

Special K
GOY Jacksonville

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman's
5* Chic
3* Hst
3* Under Chic

3* Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

Joyce Sterling

Miami +3
10 STAR Wrong Side Favored Game of the Week
Houston blew a 14 point lead last week vs Indy and Miami ( Which we cashed) beat San Diego.Chad Pennington is proving he is capable of spreading the field more effectively than he did in the past. Against the Patriots, he averaged 11.3 yards on his 17 completions. Against the Chargers, he averaged 7.9 yards on 22 completions.The improvement of Miami's defense has also been a big surprise.. Facing an outstanding San Diego offense, the Dolphins allowed 202 yards and 10 first downs in a 17-10 win last Sunday.Miami is a dog vs a winless Team ?Take the points Houston has many key injuries.


Tampa Bay -1
Coach Jon Gruden said Thursday that Garcia looked sharp in practice and made it pretty clear the 38-year-old quarterback will start Sunday against Carolina.Garcia's mobility, hampered by calf and ankle injuries, is back, Gruden said, and he looks like the player who led the Bucs to the NFC South title last seasonTB 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.


St. Louis +13.5
This 0-4 team should be rested and ready following a bye week.New defensive coordinator Jim Haslet is the spark needed here.This dog is Barking

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

5* balt
3* jax
3* car

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass Bases

20* LAD

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
6 units Jets -9.5
5 units Denver -3
4 units Dallas/Ariz uNDER 51

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO

SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Side
triple-dime bet220 DEN -3.0 (-120) BetUS vs 219 JAC
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* GAME of the WEEK ***

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso Clubs
15 units Green Bay +1
5 units Jets -9.5
4 units Carolina +1.5
3 units Minn/Texans UNDER 45

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco

25 Dime Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars


10/12/08 Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens +4 1
1:05 PM Indianapolis Colts -4


10/12/08 Chicago Bears -3 Chicago Bears -3 1
1:05 PM Atlanta Falcons


10/12/08 Detroit Lions
1:05 PM Minnesota Vikings -13 Minnesota Vikings -13 1


10/12/08 Jacksonville Jaguars
4:10 PM Denver Broncos -3.5 Denver Broncos -3.5 1

[Mr. IWS]

NorthCoast
3'* Hst
3* Chic
3* Over Dallas

Top OP---Over N Eng,
Reg Op--Minn, St L.,Philly, Ariz, NO

[Mr. IWS]

Phil Steele's plays are same as Northcoast

4* Hst
3* Chic
3* Over Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
20* Teaser Chi under & TB
50* SD
50* Hou
100* Philly
100* Balt
300* Jax

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso Sturgeon
50 dimes--CHI BEARS -3

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams

2000 seattle
1000 bears
500 chargers

[Mr. IWS]

BOB BALFE

NFL Football
Jaguars/Broncos Over 48.5
The Jaguars are usually a solid defensive team, but not this year. Jacksonville has looked awful and now will have to play in Denver against a good Broncos offense. Look for Denver to score almost at will. Jacksonville will also be able to score as they are huge on the offensive line and have big receivers. Denver has not been able to stop their opponents all season. Look for a shootout. Take the Over.

49ers +4.5 over Eagles
Philadelphia cannot win without Brian Westbrook. The offense cannot pickup first downs and this team is lost without him. The 49ers are coming off a few tough losses, but have improved this year and the Mike Martz offense should outscore Philly. Look for Frank Gore to have a field day. O'Sullivan should also play well behind the big offensive line. Take the 49ers.

Dallas -5 over Arizona
The Cowboys have failed to cover their last few games, but really are the better team here. This is where the Cardinals really will miss Boldin. Dallas just has too many offensive weapons and on defense will get to Kurt Warner early and often. The Cardinals have improved, but they will not be able to match the Cowboys scoring. Take Dallas.

San Diego -5 over New England
The Patriots have knocked San Diego out of the postseason a few time and L.T. hates New England more than any other team in the league. Matt Cassell has done a decent job for New England, but lets be fair. Cassell is not ready to shine on a Sunday Night Spotlight against a San Diego team desperate for wins. The Chargers have so much talent and will be looking to crush New England. Take San Diego.

College Football
No plays today.

Major League Baseball
Phillies +130 over Dodgers
Moyer/Kuroda

[Mr. IWS]

DOCS

5* Hou
4* SD
3* SEA
________

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -4.5