10-12-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider: 4-0 in NFL

Seattle Seahawks

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY
15 Dime Texans (buy the 1/2 point down to 2-1/2)

15 Dime Cowboys

15 Dime Rams

10 Dime 6-point Teaser - Raiders and Jets

5 Dime Eagles



Analysis by 10 a.m. eastern



FREE - Charger

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob NFL write up
I was hoping to have more than 1 Best Bet this week, but there was only one game at current lines that I liked enough to play myself. The NFL Strong Opinions have been very good this year and have been a profitable 54% lifetime, so you can play those if you're in need of more action until I start having more Best Bets.

Rotation #203 Oakland (+7 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 1/2 (-115 odds or better) or more, 2-Stars down to +7 at -115 odds or better.

Strong Opinion - Rotation #207 Cincinnati (+6) Strong Opinion at +5 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion - Rotation #225 Green Bay (+2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more (-115 odds or better).

Other possible Strong Opinions are Atlanta at +3 or more (-115 odds or better) and Tampa Bay at -1 or better.

3 Star Selection
***Oakland 24 NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 12-Oct-08
New Orleans is coming off an emotionally tough last seconds 27-30 Monday loss to Minnesota and it may be tough for the Saints to get up for a 1-3 Raiders team. New Orleans applies to a negative 19-64-1 ATS situation that plays against bad defensive teams as big home favorites and Oakland applies to a very strong 93-37-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The Raiders looked horrible in their opening 14-41 loss to Denver, but defensive coordinator Rob Ryan started to get more aggressive defensively after that game and his players have responded with 3 good defensive efforts – allowing 4.5 yards per play in 3 games since that opening game debacle. The Raiders should be 3-0 ATS in those 3 games, but they blew a 15-0 lead as a 7 ½ point dog two weeks ago and failed to cover when the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson busted through the line for a long TD run when they were simply trying to run out the clock. The Raiders are certainly capable of competing in this game, as they did at Buffalo and against the Chargers. The firing of Lane Kiffin lifts a burden off the backs of the Raiders, who will respond to well-liked interim head coach Tom Cable. Cable has turned the play-calling over to offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, who was handcuffed by Kiffin’s insistence on calling the plays. Knapp has a good history of play calling with both the 49ers’ playoff teams earlier this decade and with a Falcons team that also went to the playoffs under his guidance as offensive coordinator and play caller. The Raiders were simply too predicable when Kiffin was calling the plays and that will no longer be the case. Oakland should improve offensively after rating at 0.4 yppl worse than average in their first 4 games and moving the ball on a sub-par Saints defense that has allowed 5.7 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) won’t be that difficult. The Saints will sorely miss outstanding rookie CB Tracy Porter, who not only led the team with 6 passes defended but was also 3rd on the team in tackles. Porter was a big reason the Saints went from the league’s worst pass defense to closer to mediocrity and they will certainly be worse without him. My math model favors the Saints by 8 points, but that number would be 5 points if the Raiders play defense like they’ve played the last 3 games. Either way, the line is at least fair and the technical analysis strongly favors the Raiders. I’ll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ or more (at -115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars at +7 (-115 or better).

Strong Opinion
Cincinnati 19 NY JETS (-6.0) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 12-Oct-08
The 0-5 Bengals showed signs of life last week in Dallas and that game triggers a nice buy signal on Cincy. The Bengals apply to a very good 24-3 ATS subset of a 62-24 ATS situation that is based on last week’s competitive loss while the Jets apply to a negative 19-64-1 ATS situation. The Jets have obviously been a much better team than Cincinnati so far this season, but the Bengals are certainly better than what they’ve shown offensively so far and the last two games in which Carson Palmer has played have produced 23 points against the Giants in New York and 22 points at Dallas (Palmer sat out the Bengals’ 12-20 home loss to Cleveland). The Jets, while better than average defensively overall, are just average against the pass, which would make them the worst pass defense that Palmer has faced this season. The Bengals could be a pretty good team once the offense gets going, as Cincy’s defense has played very well in allowing just 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. New York is just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), so Cincinnati actually has an advantage over the Jets’ offense. My math model favors New York by 7 ½ points but that doesn’t take into account the Bengals’ potential to be much better offensively (the model only uses this year’s stats). The situations favoring the Bengals are very strong and I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +5 or more and I’d take Cincy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (at -115 odds or better).

Strong Opinion
Green Bay 27 SEATTLE (-2.0) 23
01:15 PM Pacific, 12-Oct-08
The Seahawks have been horrible on both sides of the ball so far in 2008, as the lack of quality receivers has led to just 4.7 yards per pass play and only 4.7 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while it’s anyone’s guess what has happened to a defense that returned all 11 players from last year’s solid unit (the Seahawks have allowed 6.1 yppl this season). Seattle’s receiving problems should get better with Bobby Engram back on the field after missing the first 3 games, but Deion Branch is out again after having played last week for the first time. If Engram plays at his normal level of around 8 yards per pass thrown to him then the Seahawks would go from 0.7 yppl worse than average to just 0.2 yppl worse than average. With that being the case Seattle should move the ball at a pretty good rate against a Green Bay defense that’s been 0.2 yppl worse than average this season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and will likely have trouble defending Seattle’s rushing attack (I project 5.2 ypr for the Seahawks in this game). Green Bay should be even better offensively against Seattle’s defense (unless they suddenly revert back to last year’s form) and the Packers have superior special teams. My math model favors the Packers by 5 ½ points in this game and the math would make this game a pick even if Seattle played defensively as well as they did last season – so there is certainly line value on the side of the Packers. My math model has been a solid 59% over the years when the difference of the projection from the point spread is 5 points or more but Seattle applies to a 122-57-8 ATS contrary indicator that will keep me from making the Packers a Best Bet in this game. Green Bay would apply to a very good 50-11-1 ATS situation if they become an underdog of 3 points or more, so I’d gladly take the Packers at that price. I’ll consider Green Bay a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make the Packers a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more (-115 odds or better).

The analysis on all other games can be found on my web-site using the links at the bottom of my NFL page.

The math model chance to cover is based solely on the math and does not include any situational analysis. Often there are situations that favor the opposite side that the math favors so make sure to read the analysis of each game before deciding to play a game based on the math.

All games are adjusted for current personnel of each team.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns Full Card
49'ERS
Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Time: 10/12/2008 4:15:00 PM Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. I believe that these teams are currently more evenly matched than is indicated by the line. Both teams are coming off back to back losses and both are sitting at 2-3. Both teams blew out a winless team (Eagles crushed Rams, 49ers did the same to the Lions) and both teams have a win over a decent opponent. The Eagles won vs. Pittsburgh while the 49'ers won at Seattle. Yet, here we have the banged-up Eagles, who will likely be without their top offensive weapon, laying more than a field goal on the road. While the dangerous Westbrook is expected to be out for the Eagles, Frank Gore is starting to expand his repertoire for the 49'ers. Gore leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and he's shown some new facets to his game recently. In addition to having taken a couple of direct snaps in recent games, Gore lined up at wide receiver against the Patriots and caught a 16-yard touchdown pass against New England cornerback Ellis Hobbs. Expect another heavy dose of Gore here as that will help to take a bit of the pressure off O'Sullivan from Philadelphia's dangerous pass rush. In addition to the injury to Westbrook and to their receivers, the Eagles are again expected to be without Pro Bowl right guard Shawn Andrews. The 49'ers were 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range the past two seasons. This is their first game in that role this season and I expect them to earn at least another cover.



CHARGERS
Game: New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers Game Time: 10/12/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: San Diego Chargers Reason: I'm laying the points with SAN DIEGO. In such a competitive league and with such a limited number of games on the schedule, every game is very important for all teams. That being said, this game is much bigger for San Diego. For starters, the Chargers are 2-3 while the Patriots are 3-1. Perhaps more importantly, the Patriots have become their nemesis in recent seasons, knocking them out of the playoffs in each of the last two years. If not for the Patriots, San Diego knows that it could have potentially earned at least one Super Bowl. That means that the Chargers have payback on their minds. They also know that if they can't even beat the Patriots without Brady, that it may take a long time before they ever do. Granted, Cassel is coming off a career high (259) in passing yards. However, he's still no Brady and he also threw two interceptions last week while getting sacked five times. I played against the Chargers last Sunday for several reasons. One of those reasons was that they were playing the second of back to back road games. This week, it's the Patriots who are in that situation. While I do think it was probably wise not to travel back to New England in between these games, the Patriots have still been away from home for a long time now. Another reason that I played against the Chargers last week was that I thought they might get caught looking ahead to this game. There won't be any looking ahead this week though, as the Chargers have had this game circled since the schedule came out. I played on the Chargers in their last home game and they crushed the Jets by a score of 48-29. That continued a pattern which has seen the Chargers "win big" when they do win. Looking at their last 10 SU victories and we find that the Chargers have won those games by an average margin of 15.2 points. Nine of those victories came by a minimum of six points and ALL came by a minimum of four. Note that the lone game which was decided by four points was a road playoff game at Indianapolis when they were listed as underdogs. Eight of those 10 victories, including both from this season, came by double-digits. Including the victory over the Jets, the Chargers are 14-6 SU and 17-3 SU their last 20 home games. I expect them to be extremely fired up and for them to win this one convincingly. *Annihilator



RAMS
Game: St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins Game Time: 10/12/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Rams Reason: I'm taking the points with ST. LOUIS. Given the situation, I believe that this number is too high. The Redskins have played five straight games against teams which will be competing for the playoffs. Three of those games came against division rivals, including each of the last two. All three of those divisional matchups came on the road, too. Off all those "big" games, it will be easy for the Redskins to overlook the lowly Rams. Note that Washington is an ugly 1-8-1 ATS (2-8 SU) the last 10 times that it faced a team with a losing record. The Skins are also just 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU!) the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. As for the Rams, they've got a new coach (Jim Haslett) and they should be extremely determined to show him that they haven't quit. They're also coming off a bye and so have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. QB Bulger, expected to back in the lineup, was quoted as saying: "Certainly, it didn't start out the way we wanted. But guys haven't quit, and we honestly still think we do have a chance in the division. Believe it or not." The Redskins have seen their five games decided by an average of just six points and ALL five of them were decided by single-digits. Look for them to have their hands full once again. *NFC GOW


UNDER raiders/saints
Game: Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints Game Time: 10/12/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Saints and Raiders to finish UNDER the total. Everyone just watched the Saints "sail above the number" against the Vikings on Monday. However, while that has helped keep this week's total generously high, that score (30-27) was actually quite deceiving. For starters, the Saints got two of their touchdowns when Reggie Bush scored on punt returns. Bush is certainly a dangerous weapon but he's not going to run back two punts for touchdowns every week. You may recall that the Raiders challenged Devin Hester (another dangerous kick returner) last year with success. In that November game at Chicago, Hester had just 14 yards on six punt returns and 34 yards on two kickoff returns. Hester returned one kickoff from 8 yards deep in the end zone and only managed to make it out to the 11. He also lost 4 yards on punt returns two different times. Hester even admitted after the game: "I did get frustrated a couple of times..." As for the Saints' defense in the Monday night game, it was also better than the final score indicates. In fact, the Saints limited the Vikings to a season-low 270 yards - including just 44 on the ground. The Vikings scored their first touchdown on a blocked field goal and Saints' turnovers set them up with a short field on other occasions. The Saints were also tough defensively in their two previous games here, allowing an average of 18.5 points. They limited the Bucs to 20 in their first game here and held the 49'ers to just 17 points (only 312 total yards) in their second game. The 49'ers had scored more than 30 points in consecutive games before that, so limiting them to 17 was pretty good. Through three games here, they are now allowing 311 yards, which is better than the league average of 321. This week, the Saints' defense will take on a Raider offense which is averaging 19.5 points and 311 yards per game, both below the league average. It's true that new coach Cable has talked about "opening up the offense." He's still a former offensive line coach though and the Raiders are still a running team at heart. I don't see them transforming into a "pass-happy" team over-night. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense is allowing a mere 284 total yards (and just 16 points!) in their two road games. The Raiders last game did finish above the total. However, that was a very tough beat for 'under' bettors (myself included) as the game finished over by only half a point after the teams combined for 28 points in the fourth quarter, after scoring only 18 through the first three quarters. Other than their late fourth quarter meltdown, the Raiders did play well defensively. San Diego entered that game having scored 86 points it's previous two games and QB Phillip Rivers was red hot. However, Oakland limited the Chargers to three points through the first three quarters and Rivers finished at just 14-for-25 for 180 yards with only one touchdown to go along with his two interceptions. Note that the Raiders saw the UNDER go a profitable 7-1-1 in Week's five through nine the last two seasons. During the same stretch, the UNDER was 7-2-1 when they were coming off a division loss. Additionally, we find the UNDER at a profitable 11-5 the last 16 times that the Raiders were coming off a bye. Look for this afternoon's game to also finish below the big number with the UNDER improving to 4-1 the last five times that the Saints were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. *total of the week


HOUSTON
Game: Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Game Time: 10/12/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. As many of you know, I played on both these teams last Sunday. Both teams were matched up against an elite opponent and both played very well. Miami won outright vs. San Diego while Houston suffered a heart-breaking fourth quarter loss vs. Indianapolis. The Texans played very well but were letdown in the final five minutes by backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels. In fairness to Rosenfels, he had played well through the first three quarters. Still, that doesn't excuse his meltdown in the final five minutes. Matt Schaub is expected to be back in the starter's role this week and while the Houston fans aren't currently enamored with him, I believe he gives the Texans the best chance to win this game. Note that Schaub was 29 of 40 and threw for more than 300 yards. More importantly, he had three TD's (drives were 91, 80 and 85 yards!) and didn't turn the ball over. Naturally, Schaub is anxious to get back on the field. He was quoted as saying: "You can't wait for that next opportunity to get out on the field and get a win. We're definitely looking forward to getting back out there this week and getting past this last game and moving on." I believe that the Texans will be able to put their last two games behind them and come out ready to play. A look at the Texans' schedule shows that their first three games all came on the road against the likes of Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Those are all very difficult venues these days and those three teams are currently a combined 11-4, 6-2 at home. As already mentioned the Texans other game, which was their lone home game, came vs. Indianapolis. Despite their slow start, the Colts are still one of top teams in the league and the Texans had an edge on them in total yards, first downs and time of possession. Calling last week's game a 'push' (was either a win/push/loss depending on when and where one played) the Texans are still a highly profitable 8-2-1 ATS (7-4 SU) their last 11 home games and an even more impressive 25-12-3 ATS in 40 tries after having lost two or more consecutive games. As for the Dolphins, they're 0-3-2 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were road underdogs of three points or less. As impressive as they were in last week's win, the situation was really in their favor. That's because they were catching the West-Coast based Chargers feeling good about themselves while flying across the country to play an early game and looking ahead to this week's nationally televised showdown with the Patriots. This week, it's the Dolphins who are "patting themselves on the back" while traveling. Receiver Greg Camarillo even referred to the Dolphins as a "great team," saying: "We have arrived. Other teams would doubt us before. Now they have to prepare to play a great team. We're ready to play anybody." Considering that the Dolphins still have just one win in their last 12 road games and just three wins in their last 20 games overall, I feel it's a little too early to be reffering to themselves as "great" and that this type of over-confidence will catch up with them here. Yes, the Dolphins have enjoyed success with their "Wildcat Formation." Opposing teams have now had plenty of time to prepare for it though and it's safe to assume that the Texans will be studying plenty of game film from how and when the Dolphins have utilized that formation against the Patriots and Chargers. The Texans are 3-0 all-time against the Dolphins and two of those three victories (in 2003 and 2006) resulted in their first victories of their respective seasons. Look for history to repeat itself as the Texans play a full 60 minute game and come away with the win and cover. *Oct. GOM
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns

Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

PPP (Gavazzi)
4 rams
3 chicago
3 dallas
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over Miami.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers over New England.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the St. Louis Rams plus the points over Washington.

Our 3 selections include Detroit, Oakland and Tampa Bay.

At 8:20pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Cincy

[Mr. IWS]

Root


Chairman - Sd
Mill - Ariz
Moneymaker - Tb
No Limit -seattle
Insidercircle -sf
Billionaire - Denver