10-16-08 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

10-16-2008, 02:57 PM

BEN BURNS
ANOTHER THURSDAY GAME OF MONTH

I'm taking the points with TCU. As you're probably aware, this is a huge game for both teams. BYU comes in with an undefeated record and the Cougars know that if they can win this game that they'll likely have relatively smooth sailing until they travel to Utah in their season finale. As for TCU, the Horned Frogs are still perfect (3-0) in Conference play and are 6-1 overall, with the lone loss coming at #1 Oklahoma, a venue where almost any team would lose. Note that a closer look at the stats from that game shows that TCU actually had an edge in time of possession and only one fewer first down than the Sooners. A victory here really strengthens the Horned Frogs' case for a bigger bowl game and gives them a legit chance of winning the conference - although it should be noted that they also play at Utah. It's true that BYU has been blowing out most opponents when facing them at Provo. However, the Cougars are 0-2 ATS in their two road games. They won easily but didn't cover vs. a weak Utah State team. They also won by only a single point vs. a mediocre Washington team. Neither of those venues is as tough as what BYU will be dealing with here in Fort Worth. Looking back to last season and we find that the Cougars are 3-5 ATS their last eight road games, including outright losses at UCLA and Toledo. Additionally, the Cougars failed to cover vs. New Mexico last week, winning 21-3, while converting just four of 12 third down conversions. In fact, BYU coach Mendenhall described the game as saying: "It was the most physical and hard-fought game that we have played this season..." Interestingly, New Mexico is the only common opponent which BYU and TCU have faced so far this season. The Horned Frogs played at New Mexico, yet dominated. They won 26-3 and had a 20-9 edge in first downs. On the other hand, despite playing at home, the Cougars actually had fewer first downs than did the Lobos. That was BYU's toughest home game since last season when it was tested by both Utah and TCU. That game vs. TCU finished with a score of 27-22. BYU won but TCU covered. The previous meeting, here in 2006, saw BYU snap TCU's winning streak, which was the longest winning streak in the nation at the time. This year, it's BYU which comes in with the longest winning streak in the nation and it's safe to say that the Horned Frogs are itching to return the favor. Note that BYU returned 12 starters from last year's team, while TCU brought back 15, which was the most in the Mountain West. The Cougars' offense didn't look particularly sharp last week and now they'll face a much tougher defense, while dealing with a hostile crowd. This year's TCU team comes in allowing a mere 11.4 points per game, which ranks in the top 10 in the country. The Horned Frogs also rank #1 in the entire country in terms of total yards per game, first downs allowed AND time of possession. Looking back several seasons and we find TCU at an excellent 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times it was listed as a home underdog of three points or less. During the same stretch, BYU was just 1-4 SU/ATS as a road favorite of three points or less. Look for TCU to get some payback from the two losses the last two years and spoil BYU's dreams of an undefeated season. *Thursday Night Game of the Month

BEN BURNS
ESPN TOTAL OF THE WEEK

I'm playing on Florida State and NC State to finish UNDER the total. The Wolfpack have played the Seminoles tough in recent seasons, which has been largely due to the fact that they've played solid defense. Looking at the last four series meetings and we find that they produced combined scores of 37, 44, 35 and 27 points. The last three meetings here in Raleigh have been particularly low-scoring, averaging a mere 31.67 points per game. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring contest this evening. It's true that the Wolfpack defense hasn't been particularly strong this season and that they have given up a lot of points their last two games. However, they are coming off a bye and that time off allowed several key defensive players time to recover from nagging injuries. You may recall what happened after last year's bye, which also came after NC State had played six games. The Wolfpack entered last year's bye week having lost three straight games, while allowing an average of 33 points per game in the losses. After the bye, the Wolfpack faced an East Carolina squad which had gone 3-0 its previous three games, while scoring 52, 37 and 45 points. Most expected the Pirates to put up big numbers once again. However, the Wolfpack D delivered one of its best games of the season and allowed just 20 points. Including that result, the Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 7-1 the last eight times they were coming off back to back SU losses and 14-4 their last 18 games (with a total) in that situation. It's also worth noting that the Wolfpack were shutout (at South Carolina) in their only previous Thursday game this season and that they e This year's bye came has allowed the Wolfpack enough time that they should get defensive stars Michael Cash and linebacker Nate Irving back in the lineup. Cash, who coach Tom O'Brien said was the team's best defensive lineman before having knee surgery, is reportedly back at full strength after missing three games. Irving, currently listed as probable, made 34 tackles in three and a half games and remains the Wolfpack's leader with six tackles for loss and three interceptions. The Seminoles, who are also coming off a bye, also allowed a lot of points (39) in their last game. However, a closer look at that game shows that Florida State had only allowed three points in the first half and that the defense wasn't fully responsible for many of the points allowed in the second half. That's because two botched snaps on Florida State punts led to Miami points while the Hurricanes also ran back an interception for a touchdown. Prior to that game, the Seminoles had been allowing a mere 10 points per game. Note that the Noles have seen the UNDER go 9-2 their last 11 games (with a total) in which they were favored in the 10.5 to 14 point range. Florida State is still only allowing a mere 230 total yards per game, which ranks second (behind TCU) in the entire country. Look for both defenses to rise to the occasion as these teams play yet another relatively low-scoring game against each other. *ESPN TOW