10-17-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Friday Night
5 Dime Boise



Free pick - Boise State/Hawaii OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

BOISE ST. (-23.5) 36 Hawaii 13
05:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Oct-17 - Stats Matchup
Boise State is an incredible 19-2 ATS ATS all time in conference home games when not favored by 26 points or more, but I don't like the idea of bucking an underrated Hawaii squad that is good defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team) and just 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense. Boise State is a very good team, but my math model only favors the Broncos by 18 points. This looks like a good game to pass on.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
BLUE CHIP TOTAL

I'm playing on Hawaii and Boise State to finish UNDER the total. These teams have always had a reputation of being powerful offensive teams. That's not entirely true this year though, as Hawaii's offense is nothing like it used to be. While the Warriors run a "run and shoot offense," they are throwing fewer deep balls and are running more frequently. They come in averaging only 21 points per game including a mere 16.3 per game on the road. In those three road games, the Warriors managed only 264.7 yards per game. The Hawaii defense has really come around the last few weeks though. Three games ago, they held San Jose State to just 20 points. They followed that up by limiting Fresno State to 29. That doesn't sound all that impressive but that was on the road and the Bulldogs are a potent offensive team. Last time out, the Warriors were even better as they limited Louisiana Tech to just 14 points. Note that the Warriors have seen the UNDER go a profitable 14-6 their last 20 games (with a total) on turf. It's true that Boise State is strong offensively once again. Through five games, the Broncos are averaging 33.6 points. However, the defense has been even more impressive. The Broncos are allowing just 11.2 points per game and have held four of five opponents to a touchdown or less. In three home games, they are allowing a mere 5.7 points per game and only 278 total yards per game. Not surprisingly, both Boise home games which had a total finished comfortably under the number. Last year's meeting between these teams finished below the number and I expect tonight's game to do the same. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' Friday Night NHL BEST BET!
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. These teams met eight days ago in what was the season opener for both teams. I backed the Sharks in that game and they delivered a 4-1 victory. At the time, I stated that I highly respected both teams but that I liked the Sharks primarily for two reasons. In addition to the fact that they were playing at home, I felt the Sharks would be the "hungrier" team, as it was their first game under their new coach. The situation is reversed tonight though, as this time it's the Ducks who are playing at home. Perhaps more importantly, this time I believe it will be the Ducks who will also be the more motivated team. That's because they're still winless on the season while the Sharks remain undefeated. Don't be fooled by Anaheim's slow start though. The Ducks have been an elite team in this league for a few years now and the slow start notwithstanding, this year's team still has the potential to be very strong. That being said, they really can't afford to lose another division game against their primary rivals in the Pacific Division. Despite dropping the opener at San Jose, the Ducks have enjoyed success in this series the past few seasons as they've still won 12 of the last 20 series meetings. The Ducks did lose the last meeting here (last March) but haven't lost two home games in a row to the Sharks since way back in 2004-2005. Goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere should be back between the pipes tonight and he's fared particularly well against the Sharks. Even after last week's setback, he's still 7-1-1 his last nine starts in this series. Look for a highly motivated effort here as the Ducks, who are 31-17 their last 48 home games with an over/under line of five or less, find a way to earn their first victory, while handing the Sharks their first loss at the same time. *Best Bet