Mr. IWS
10-18-2008, 07:41 AM
Dr. Bob Saturday CFB
3 Star Selection
***Akron (-3.5) 35 EASTERN MICH 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I don’t understand the line on this game. Akron is a pretty decent MAC team that has averaged 5.4 yards per play and allowed 5.7 yppl and been out-scored by an average of just 26.1 points to 27.3 points against a schedule of teams that is about 4 points worse than average. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, has been out-gained 5.0 yppl to 6.5 yppl and out-scored 14.7 points to 34.8 points in 6 games against Division 1A teams that rate at 5 ½ points worse than average. The Eagles did manage a victory a couple of weeks ago against Bowling Green, but they then lost last week to a pathetic Army squad and lost by 24 points or more in their other 4 games against 1A opposition. The Eagles are also without their best quarterback, Kyle McMahon, who is out for the season after averaging 7.1 yards per pass play on 77 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Quarterback Andy Schmitt has averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp. Schmitt doesn’t throw many interceptions (just 14 career picks on 611 passes, 2.3%) and Akron quarterback Chris Jacquemain does tend to be more careless with the ball (20 interceptions on 519 pass attempts, 3.9%), but my math model gives Akron a 58% chance to cover at -3 1/2 points even with Eastern Michigan projected to have fewer turnovers. The Zips also apply to a 63-16-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less, for 4-Stars at -2 ½ or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.
3 Star Selection
***NORTHERN ILL (-8.5) 31 Toledo 14
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Toledo is coming off a huge upset win at Michigan, but it’s going to be tough for the Rockets to avoid a letdown this week. Toledo, in fact, applies to a very negative 18-66 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win and the Rockets are not generally a good road team (7-19-2 ATS). Toledo isn’t really a good, a the Rockets have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) – although only 0.5 yppl worse than average with RB DaJuane Collins healthy – 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively and horrible on special teams. Toledo has been out-scored by an average of 8.2 points by teams that are 1.3 points worse than average. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, has out-scored their opponents (who are 12.8 points worse than average) by an average of 12.5 points (so they’ve been about average based on scoring) and the Huskies have been solid from the line of scrimmage – rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, yielding just 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average team. The Huskies started off the season very strong offensively with freshman Chandler Harnish at quarterback (they averaged 6.6 yppl and scored 27 points against Minnesota), but Harnish was injured early in week 2 and just came back last week. Harnish’s stats (416 yards on 44 pass plays for 9.5 yppp) are misleading since he connected on a couple of big plays, including a 91 yard play, against Minnesota, but he should be better than backups Nicholson and Grady were (although the Huskies will miss Grady’s rushing skills). The Huskies surely remember last year’s game in which the Rockets ran up the score against NIU’s injury depleted defense in a 70-21 win. That defense is now very strong and will get some payback today. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 13 points and Toledo’s very negative situation makes NIU a good bet here. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
3 Star Selection
***PENN ST. (-23.5) 41 Michigan 6
01:30 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I doubt that Penn State will feel sorry for a Wolverines squad that has beaten them by a combined 14 points the last 3 seasons and the Nittany Lions will get their sweet revenge today against an impotent Wolverines squad that just lost at home to Toledo. Michigan is a pretty good defensive team, allowing 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team, but that unit is not any better than the average defensive rating of the 6 Division 1A teams that Penn State has averaged 42 points against. Penn State’s attack has averaged 6.9 yards per play with starting quarterback Daryll Clark behind center in those 6 games against 1A opposition, who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and my math model projects 7.0 yppl and 41 points for the Nittany Lions in this game. Penn State combines their explosive offense with a devastatingly good defense that has yielded just 4.0 yppl in 6 Division 1A games to a schedule of teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit. Michigan is pathetic offensively, averaged just 4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and the Wolverines averaged a paltry 3.2 yppl at home against the only really good defensive team that they faced (Utah). Penn State can name the score in this game and my math model projects a 35 point win if the Nittany Lions play their starters the entire game. Penn State’s backups haven’t given up many points either this season and my math model gives the Nittany Lions a 61.8% chance of covering at -23 ½ points even without factoring in the 64-20 ATS home favorite momentum situation that applies to Penn State. I’ll take Penn State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -26 points or less and for 2-Stars from -26 ½ or -27 points.
3 Star Selection
***Oregon St. (-14.0) 45 WASHINGTON 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Oregon State is not getting enough respect, which probably goes back to their opening game loss to Stanford and their 14-45 loss at Penn State in game 2. However, the Beavers are a very good team and their win over USC was no fluke. The loss to Stanford was a fluke, however, as Oregon State out-gained a better than average Cardinal team 6.0 yards per play to 4.9 yppl on the road. Losing big at Penn State is not such a negative now given how the Nittany Lions have been dominating everyone and the Beavers actually played better than average on both sides of the ball in that game after taking into account how good Penn State is. Oregon State’s other loss was by just 3 points on the road to a very good Utah team and the Beavers out played the Utes 6.3 yppl to 4.9 yppl in that game. Oregon State has played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation and the Beavers have out-gained their opponents 5.9 yppl to 4.9 yppl, which is extremely impressive considering their opponents would combine to out-gain an average team 5.9 yppl to 4.8 yppl. Washington has played the toughest schedule in the nation, but the Huskies have been dominated to the tune of 4.5 yppl on offense while allowing 7.5 yppl and being out-scored by an average of 18.6 to 42.0. Washington is a couple of points better with sophomore quarterback Ronnie Fouch in place of injured starter Jake Locker, as Fouch is a better passer, but the Huskies rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average with Fouch at quarterback and Oregon State is 1.0 yppl better than average on defense. The Beavers have only allowed more than 4.9 yppl to Penn State and USC, two of the top 5 offensive units in the nation, and Washington has scored more than 14 points only against BYU and Stanford, who are both closer to mediocre defensively than good. Oregon State is actually the best defensive teams that Washington has faced this season so far and I just don’t see the Huskies getting more than 17 to 20 points in this game unless the Beavers are very negative in turnovers. Oregon State will probably only have to score 30 to 35 points to cover the spread in this game and the Huskies have allowed an average of 42 points to teams that are collectively 0.3 yppl worse offensively than Oregon State would be on the road against an average team. Oregon State, meanwhile, has faced only one worse than average defense and the Beavers scored 66 points in that game last week against Washington State despite turning the ball over 4 times. Oregon State has a history of beating up on mediocre and bad conference foes under coach Mike Riley, whose team is now 16-4 ATS in conference games against teams with a win percentage of .500 or lower (5-0 ATS since last season). The Huskies, meanwhile, are now just 6-17 ATS in Pac-10 games when not an underdog of at least 20 points under coach Willingham. Perhaps the line on this game is much lower than it should be because people remember Washington’s near upset of an overrated BYU team. However, Washington was out-gained 5.0 yppl to 7.4 yppl and it was a fluke that they were even close in that contest. I’ll take Oregon State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -17 points.
3 Star Selection
***Missouri 37 TEXAS (-5.0) 32
05:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
The line on this game is a bit off due to last week’s disparate results, with Texas upsetting Oklahoma and Missouri getting upset by Oklahoma State, and the Tigers apply to a great bounce-back situation this week to go along with the line value that last week provided. Missouri lost last week to a very good Oklahoma State team due to 3 rare interceptions by Chase Daniel, who had thrown just 1 in 5 previous games, but the Tigers out-gained the Cowboys 6.5 yards per play to 6.0 yppl – which is very good considering Oklahoma State would out-gain an average team 6.7 yppl to 5.1 yppl on the road. Texas, meanwhile, was out-gained by an average of 6.3 yppl to 6.7 yppl by Oklahoma but took advantage of a +2 in turnover margin to win that game. The Longhorns did actually perform very well, as Oklahoma would out-gain an average team 6.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl on a neutral field. So, Missouri was 2.1 yppl better than an average team in defeat last week while Texas was 1.9 yppl better than average in victory. The season numbers for these two teams also favor the Tigers, as Missouri has been an incredible 2.6 yppl better than average offensively with Chase Daniel in the game (8.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. Texas has been 1.4 yppl better than average offensively with Colt McCoy under center, but I rate the Longhorns attack at +1.7 yppl with RB Chris Ogbonnaya as the main back the last two games (he’s averaging 7.1 ypr while the other two main backs have averaged just 3.7 ypr). The Longhorns’ defense has been just 0.4 yppl better than average this season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they gave up 6.7 yppl and 8.7 yards per pass play to Oklahoma last week and Missouri’s offense is better than that of the Sooners. Missouri actually has a huge advantage from the line of scrimmage using all games played by both teams (Missouri is a total of +3.1 yppl and Texas is at +2.1 yppl), but the Tigers racked up some big numbers against bad teams and I decided to do a profile analysis to get a better idea of how good each team has fared against good competition. Missouri’s offense has faced two better than average defensive teams in Illinois and Oklahoma State and the Tigers are have been a less incredible 1.6 yppl better than average on offense in those 2 games (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) while the Texas defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average in the only game they’ve played against a good offensive team (last week against Oklahoma). Texas has faced two better than average defensive teams (the last two week against Colorado and Oklahoma) and the Longhorns’ attack has been 1.4 yppl better than average in those games (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 4.7 yppl). Missouri’s defense, meanwhile, has had to face 4 good offensive teams this season in Illinois, Nevada, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State and the Tigers have been 0.8 yppl better than average defensively in those games, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 6.4 yppl against an average team. The profile analysis reveals that Missouri has been 2.4 yppl better than average against good competition (+1.6 yppl on offense and +0.8 yppl on defense) while Texas has been +1.5 yppl better than average against better competition (+1.4 yppl on offense and +0.1 yppl on defense) – so Missouri still has a solid advantage. Neither quarterback makes a habit of throwing interceptions (I project Texas with a +0.3 turnover margin) and Missouri only has a slight edge in special teams and it is pretty clear to me that the Tigers are the better team getting nearly a touchdown. Missouri’s loss last week also sets them up in a very strong 25-1 ATS subset of a 65-12 ATS bounce-back situation that has been very good to me over the years (23-5 ATS since I discovered the situation). I’ll take Missouri in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more, for 4-Stars at +6 or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points.
2 Star Selection
**NAVY 30 Pittsburgh (-3.0) 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Pittsburgh is an overrated team with a 1-4 spread mark that is suddenly ranked because they beat another overrated team in South Florida two weeks ago. The Panthers have out-gained an average schedule of opponents by only 5.1 yards per play to 4.8 yppl while rating at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. The Pitt defense, while very good overall, isn’t good defending the run (5.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), so the match-up against Navy’s option attack is a bad one for the Panthers – whose great pass defense is a non-factor in this game. Pittsburgh had a very good run defense last season and still couldn’t handle Navy’s option attack in a 45-48 loss in which the Midshipmen racked up 497 total yards at 5.9 yppl. Navy’s offense this season is as good as ever, as the Middies have averaged 5.7 yppl in 5 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team. Navy isn’t as good with backup quarterback Jarod Bryant running the attack (just 0.4 yppl better than average), but starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has practiced with the first team unit this week and looks like he may be ready to play on his strained hamstring. Navy is 1.1 yppl better than average with Kaheaku-Enhada at quarterback, but I’ll assume Bryant will play the entire game just to be conservative. Navy’s defense is still an issue, as they rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average, but Pittsburgh likes to run the ball and the Middies are good against the run (4.2 yprp allowed in 5 Division 1A games against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average defense). While Pittsburgh would rate a slight edge overall from the line of scrimmage, the match-up of Navy’s run-heavy attack makes a Pitt defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average less effective and my math model projects Navy to average 6.1 yppl with 344 rushing yards while Pitt manages just 5.4 yppl with their bad offense going up against Navy’s bad defense. Navy should be favored in this game even if I assume Kaheaku-Enhada will not play for the Midshipmen, which is probably not the case. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.15 odds or better) and I’d consider Navy a Strong Opinion from +2 ½ to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
**NEVADA (-21.0) 46 Utah St. 16
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Nevada did not match up well with New Mexico State last week, as the Aggies were able to exploit the week Wolf Pack secondary in a 48-45 upset win. Nevada is now 1.7 yards per pass play worse than average defensively (7.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average team), but Utah State’s porous pass attack is not likely to exploit that weakness today and the Wolf Pack are among the best in the nation defending the run (3.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp). Utah State’s dual quarterbacks have averaged only 5.0 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) and the Aggies have managed just 4.7 yards per play overall this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Nevada is 0.6 yppl worse than average overall defensively, but that number is skewed by the 10.0 yppl they gave up to Missouri and the Wolf Pack gave up a reasonable 4.2 yppl at Idaho, the only average or worse Division 1A offense that they’ve faced (Idaho would average 4.5 yppl at home against an average team), and they also allowed just 3.4 yppl to Grambling. Utah State may score around 20 points in this game, but Nevada has scored 45 points or more in all but the two games in which they faced good defensive teams in Texas Tech and Missouri. The Wolf Pack have averaged 7.0 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) with starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick on the field and Utah State, while not horrible defensively at 0.3 yppl worse than average, isn’t good enough to stop Nevada from scoring. Kaepernick is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation (673 yards on 58 rushing plays) while also being a good passer (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Kaepernick has thrown just 6 interceptions in 395 career pass attempts. Nevada also has two running backs that have averaged over 6 yards per rush and they are tough to stop. Utah State has faced just one team with good running backs and a running quarterback and the Aggies allowed 425 rushing yards at 8.3 yprp and 66 points at Oregon, so they don’t figure to have much luck stopping Nevada today. My math model only favors Nevada by 22 points, but the Wolf Pack apply to a very strong 75-17 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 10-2 ATS for me since I discovered it a few years ago. I’ll take Nevada in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Stanford (-1.5) 29 UCLA 19
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Stanford starting quarterback Tavita Pritchard was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion and was playing very well at the time, but backup Alex Loukas led the game winning drive over Arizona running a spread option attack that surprised the Wildcats. Pritchard has been upgraded to probable and the Cardinal are a much better team than UCLA. Stanford’s offense has averaged 5.6 yppl when Pritchard has been in the game (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average team) and while Pritchard’s numbers are a bit below average, the Cardinal have two very good running backs in Toby Gerhart (641 yards at 5.8 ypr) and Anthony Kimble (419 yards at 6.3 ypr) and have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow just 4.6 yprp to an average team). UCLA has given up 5.5 yprp this season (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team) and they gave up 345 rushing yards at 8.6 yprp last week at Oregon and could stop Fresno State either (219 yards at 5.8 yprp) – so Stanford’s rushing attack should work well. Overall UCLA’s defense is just 0.2 yppl better than average, so the Cardinal have an advantage when they have the ball. Stanford also has an advantage when the Bruins have the ball. UCLA’s porous attack has averaged only 4.5 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while the Stanford defense is 0.1 yppl better than average. Stanford also has superior special teams in addition to being 1.4 yppl better than UCLA on offense and only 0.1 yppl worse than the Bruins on defense. In addition to the line value, the Cardinal apply to a very strong 71-19-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
Thursday Strong Opinion
Florida St. (-11.0) 35 NO CAROLINA ST. 17
04:45 PM Pacific, 16-Oct-08
Florida State opened the season with easy wins over bad Division 1AA teams, but the Seminoles have looked very good in 3 games against 1A teams, out-gaining Wake Forest, Colorado, and Miami-Florida 5.1 yards per play to 4.1 yppl. Florida State would have looked more impressive on the scoreboard in those 3 games had it not been for a -6 in turnover margin and the ‘Noles should have no problem winning this game if they can avoid being -3 in turnovers or worse. Christian Ponder has thrown 6 interceptions in 110 passes, but he’s not likely to continue to throw picks at that high pace and he may not need to throw the ball at all to lead his team against a bad NC State defense that hasn’t been able to defend any team since losing star LB Nate Irving against East Carolina in week 4. Irving was the only impact player on the Wolfpack defense, as he was their top tackler and had 5 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions and 2 other passes broken up in just over 3 games. NC State was about average defensively in their first 3 games with Irving, but they have allowed 6.6 yppl in their last 3 games to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. The Wolfpack haven’t been able to defend the run (5.5 yprp allowed) or the pass (7.6 yppp) without Irving and Florida State’s rushing attack, which has averaged 230 yards at 5.6 yprp in 3 Division 1A games (against teams would allow just 4.2 yprp to an average team), will control this game and allow Ponder to limit his turnovers by not having to throw as often. NC State has had some interception issues as well this season, but that is not the case with Russell Wilson back at quarterback, as Wilson has thrown just 1 interception on 90 pass attempts. Wilson, however, has only averaged 4.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and the Wolfpack don’t have a good ground game to rely on (just 3.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.4 yprp to an average team). Florida State’s defense has been 0.8 yppl better than average in their 3 Division 1A games and I don’t see the Wolfpack having much success against that unit. The Seminoles are a much better team and I’ll consider Florida State a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less and I’d take Florida State as a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
IOWA (-3.5) 30 Wisconsin 19
09:00 AM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I pegged Wisconsin as the most overrated team in the nation heading into the season (I played them under 9 wins) and that prognosis has proven pretty accurate given their consecutive losses to Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. Wisconsin is a pretty good offensive team that rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack) and the Badgers are pretty good on defense too (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense). Pretty good isn’t likely to be good enough to win on the road against an underrated Iowa team that rates at 0.8 yppl better than average on offense with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. Stanzi split time with incumbent Jake Christenson the first 4 games, but he has established himself as the better quarterback – averaging 7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Iowa’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 5.1 yppl and 22 points to any team all season. In addition to their advantage from the line of scrimmage, the Hawkeyes are also considerably better in special teams and certainly should be favored by more than the standard home field advantage. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion from -3 ½ to -5 points and I’d take the Hawkeyes in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (-115 odds or better) or less.
Strong Opinion
Southern Miss 35 RICE (-2.0) 31
12:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
What we have here are two teams that are comparable offensively while one team is much better defensively and in special teams – and the better team is getting points. Rice is a pretty good offensive team that has averaged 5.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. Southern Miss is also mediocre offensively, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. There is a big difference on the defensive side of the ball, as the Eagles are 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) while Rice is a horrible 1.1 yppl worse than average on the stop side of the ball (6.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). The only reason Rice is close to even in scoring margin (39.0 to 39.2 points) is because they are +6 in turnover margin and have returned 4 interceptions for touchdowns – a trend that is not likely to continue at that pace (my math model forecasts a +0.4 turnover margin for Rice in this game). Southern Miss star running back Damion Fletcher (749 yards at 5.9 ypr) could top 200 yards in this game against an Owls’ defensive front that has allowed 6.3 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team. The Southern Miss attack has been shut down by good defensive teams that can stop the run (the scored an average of just 10 points against Auburn and Boise State), but the Eagles have averaged 35.5 points in their other 4 games against teams that are collectively 0.4 yppl better defensively than Rice. Rice is going to get their share of points too, but the line on this game should be pick and the Eagles apply to a solid 123-59-3 ATS situation. On line value alone the Eagles have solid 54.0% chance of covering at +2 and the technical analysis is in their favor as well. I’ll consider Southern Miss a Strong Opinion at +2 points or more and I’d take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
OKLAHOMA ST. (-16.5) 43 Baylor 20
12:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
It may seem that Oklahoma State should be in a letdown situation after winning at Missouri as a huge underdog last week, but that actually isn’t the case. The Cowboys actually apply to a 55-19 ATS situation that plays on home favorites after winning straight up as a double-digit dog and that angle is 6-0 ATS for unbeaten teams after beating a previously unbeaten team, so it doesn’t appear that Oklahoma State is likely to letdown – especially given their habit of beating up on lesser teams (11-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points the last 3 seasons). Baylor is a solid team that is very good offensively with Robert Griffin at quarterback (0.9 yppl better than average) and the Bears are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would allow 5.1 yppl against an average team). A bit better than average on defense is not going to be enough to contain a great Cowboys’ attack that has averaged 7.5 yppl with Zac Robinson at the helm (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Oklahoma State also showed last week that they are a pretty good defensive squad too and they now rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on defense. Oklahoma State is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season and my math model favors the Cowboys by 22 points over what I think is an underrated Baylor team, so there is still some value in siding with Oklahoma State. I’m still going to resist playing on Oklahoma State as a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Oklahoma State a Strong Opinion in this game at -17 points or less.
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (-7.5) 24 Mississippi St. 10
04:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Hidden by Tennessee’s 2-4 record is the fact that the Volunteers have one of the best defensive units in the nation. The Vols have allowed just 4.3 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team, and that includes limiting the very good offensive units of Florida and Georgia to a combined 5.3 yppl (those teams would combine to average 7.2 yppl against an average defense). Tennessee’s defense should dominate a bad Miss State attack that has averaged just 4.6 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Having Tyson Lee at quarterback has not improved the Bulldogs’ compensated yards per play numbers, but Lee has not thrown an interception in 93 passes while former starter Wesley Carroll was picked off 6 times in 95 pass attempts – so Lee is an improvement. Tennessee’s new quarterback Nick Stephens has also been void of interceptions on his 49 passes and he appears to be a major improvement over former starter Jonathan Crompton. Crompton averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) in his 4 starts while Stephens has averaged 6.2 yppp (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp) in his 2 starts, which doesn’t include 42 yards on 2 passes early in the season against UAB. Tennessee’s offense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season and they will probably struggle against a solid Mississippi State defense even with Stephens at quarterback. Miss State has been only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively in 6 games, but they were abused by the good offenses of Georgia Tech and LSU, allowing 7.3 yppl in those games, while being very stingy against the 4 sub-par offensive teams that they faced. The Rebels yielded just 3.6 yppl in those 4 games against bad offensive teams that would combine to average 4.5 yppl against an average team and Tennessee won’t move the ball that well if that Miss State defense shows up. I still get Tennessee by 14 points in this game even if I assume that Miss State will play at that better level of defense. Tennessee is coming off a 14-26 loss to Georgia last week and Phillip Fulmer’s teams have always been very good at bouncing-back from losses. In fact, Tennessee is 14-1 ATS under Fulmer after losing by more than 7 points if they are not favored by more than 14 points, including a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1995. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less. I’d take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion UNDER
UNDER (54 1/2) - California (-2.5) 24 ARIZONA 23
07:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Cal and Arizona are both known for their explosive offensive units, but both of these teams are much stronger defensively than given credit for. Cal’s offense has averaged a very good 6.4 yards per play (against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but the Bears have 3 running plays that have gone for 80 yards or more and that is not something that is likely to repeat itself. Cal will certainly bust huge TD runs with their explosive backs Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen, but those runs aren’t likely to come at the 20 yard line or further from the goal line, so those long runs need to be adjusted to account for the future. Doing so would lower Cal’s rushing attack rating to 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average rather than 1.1 yprp better than average. However, Cal is better off with Nate Longshore as the starting quarterback, as Kevin Riley just misses too many open receivers, and the Bears are 0.9 yards per pass play better than their season rating with Longshore behind center. So, the Bears actually rate at 0.9 yppl better than average with Best back in the lineup this week (he missed the ASU game) and Longshore remaining at quarterback (which I assume he will after a solid performance against a good ASU defense). Arizona’s defense has been 0.7 yppl better than average, allowing just 4.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Cal only has a 0.2 yppl advantage over the Wildcats’ defense in this game. Arizona’s offense has averaged 40 points per game, but they are actually just 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack) and rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average with Willie Tuitama behind center. Cal’s defense hasn’t received a lot of national praise yet, but the Bears are among the top 10 defensive units in the nation. Cal has yielded just 4.1 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and the Bears have allowed 14 points or less in 3 of their 5 games. The 31 points Cal allowed to Michigan State is misleading as only 17 were the fault of the defense and Maryland’s 35 points is also misleading given that the Terrapins averaged just 4.8 yppl in that game. The Bears have a significant advantage over Arizona’s offense, but the Wildcats will throw the ball much more in this game than they have in their lopsided wins in which they simply started running the ball with a huge lead. I still forecast Arizona with just 311 total yards at 4.8 yppl even after adjusting for Arizona’s extra likelihood to throw the ball. Cal, meanwhile, is projected to gain 346 yards at 5.4 yppl, so neither offense is expected to gain more than the national average of 5.4 yppl. My projected math model score in this game is Cal 23.4 to Arizona’s 23.1 and the reason for the total being so much higher is because these teams have had games that are significantly higher scoring than they really should have been based on normal scoring efficiencies. Not only has Cal had 3 one play drives of 80 yards or more but there have been 6 non-offensive touchdowns in Cal’s 5 games (instead of the 1 or 2 you might expect at this point in the season). Meanwhile, there have been 4 non-offensive touchdowns in Arizona’s 6 games this season and it appears as if the oddsmakers haven’t taken into account the fact that those 10 non-offensive touchdowns involving these two teams is extremely random and is not likely to continue. This game has a 55.7% chance of going Under 54 ½ points based on the historical performance of my math model picking totals and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 54 points or higher (54.7% at 54 points).
3 Star Selection
***Akron (-3.5) 35 EASTERN MICH 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I don’t understand the line on this game. Akron is a pretty decent MAC team that has averaged 5.4 yards per play and allowed 5.7 yppl and been out-scored by an average of just 26.1 points to 27.3 points against a schedule of teams that is about 4 points worse than average. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, has been out-gained 5.0 yppl to 6.5 yppl and out-scored 14.7 points to 34.8 points in 6 games against Division 1A teams that rate at 5 ½ points worse than average. The Eagles did manage a victory a couple of weeks ago against Bowling Green, but they then lost last week to a pathetic Army squad and lost by 24 points or more in their other 4 games against 1A opposition. The Eagles are also without their best quarterback, Kyle McMahon, who is out for the season after averaging 7.1 yards per pass play on 77 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Quarterback Andy Schmitt has averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp. Schmitt doesn’t throw many interceptions (just 14 career picks on 611 passes, 2.3%) and Akron quarterback Chris Jacquemain does tend to be more careless with the ball (20 interceptions on 519 pass attempts, 3.9%), but my math model gives Akron a 58% chance to cover at -3 1/2 points even with Eastern Michigan projected to have fewer turnovers. The Zips also apply to a 63-16-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less, for 4-Stars at -2 ½ or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.
3 Star Selection
***NORTHERN ILL (-8.5) 31 Toledo 14
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Toledo is coming off a huge upset win at Michigan, but it’s going to be tough for the Rockets to avoid a letdown this week. Toledo, in fact, applies to a very negative 18-66 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win and the Rockets are not generally a good road team (7-19-2 ATS). Toledo isn’t really a good, a the Rockets have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) – although only 0.5 yppl worse than average with RB DaJuane Collins healthy – 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively and horrible on special teams. Toledo has been out-scored by an average of 8.2 points by teams that are 1.3 points worse than average. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, has out-scored their opponents (who are 12.8 points worse than average) by an average of 12.5 points (so they’ve been about average based on scoring) and the Huskies have been solid from the line of scrimmage – rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, yielding just 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average team. The Huskies started off the season very strong offensively with freshman Chandler Harnish at quarterback (they averaged 6.6 yppl and scored 27 points against Minnesota), but Harnish was injured early in week 2 and just came back last week. Harnish’s stats (416 yards on 44 pass plays for 9.5 yppp) are misleading since he connected on a couple of big plays, including a 91 yard play, against Minnesota, but he should be better than backups Nicholson and Grady were (although the Huskies will miss Grady’s rushing skills). The Huskies surely remember last year’s game in which the Rockets ran up the score against NIU’s injury depleted defense in a 70-21 win. That defense is now very strong and will get some payback today. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 13 points and Toledo’s very negative situation makes NIU a good bet here. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
3 Star Selection
***PENN ST. (-23.5) 41 Michigan 6
01:30 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I doubt that Penn State will feel sorry for a Wolverines squad that has beaten them by a combined 14 points the last 3 seasons and the Nittany Lions will get their sweet revenge today against an impotent Wolverines squad that just lost at home to Toledo. Michigan is a pretty good defensive team, allowing 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team, but that unit is not any better than the average defensive rating of the 6 Division 1A teams that Penn State has averaged 42 points against. Penn State’s attack has averaged 6.9 yards per play with starting quarterback Daryll Clark behind center in those 6 games against 1A opposition, who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and my math model projects 7.0 yppl and 41 points for the Nittany Lions in this game. Penn State combines their explosive offense with a devastatingly good defense that has yielded just 4.0 yppl in 6 Division 1A games to a schedule of teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit. Michigan is pathetic offensively, averaged just 4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and the Wolverines averaged a paltry 3.2 yppl at home against the only really good defensive team that they faced (Utah). Penn State can name the score in this game and my math model projects a 35 point win if the Nittany Lions play their starters the entire game. Penn State’s backups haven’t given up many points either this season and my math model gives the Nittany Lions a 61.8% chance of covering at -23 ½ points even without factoring in the 64-20 ATS home favorite momentum situation that applies to Penn State. I’ll take Penn State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -26 points or less and for 2-Stars from -26 ½ or -27 points.
3 Star Selection
***Oregon St. (-14.0) 45 WASHINGTON 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Oregon State is not getting enough respect, which probably goes back to their opening game loss to Stanford and their 14-45 loss at Penn State in game 2. However, the Beavers are a very good team and their win over USC was no fluke. The loss to Stanford was a fluke, however, as Oregon State out-gained a better than average Cardinal team 6.0 yards per play to 4.9 yppl on the road. Losing big at Penn State is not such a negative now given how the Nittany Lions have been dominating everyone and the Beavers actually played better than average on both sides of the ball in that game after taking into account how good Penn State is. Oregon State’s other loss was by just 3 points on the road to a very good Utah team and the Beavers out played the Utes 6.3 yppl to 4.9 yppl in that game. Oregon State has played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation and the Beavers have out-gained their opponents 5.9 yppl to 4.9 yppl, which is extremely impressive considering their opponents would combine to out-gain an average team 5.9 yppl to 4.8 yppl. Washington has played the toughest schedule in the nation, but the Huskies have been dominated to the tune of 4.5 yppl on offense while allowing 7.5 yppl and being out-scored by an average of 18.6 to 42.0. Washington is a couple of points better with sophomore quarterback Ronnie Fouch in place of injured starter Jake Locker, as Fouch is a better passer, but the Huskies rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average with Fouch at quarterback and Oregon State is 1.0 yppl better than average on defense. The Beavers have only allowed more than 4.9 yppl to Penn State and USC, two of the top 5 offensive units in the nation, and Washington has scored more than 14 points only against BYU and Stanford, who are both closer to mediocre defensively than good. Oregon State is actually the best defensive teams that Washington has faced this season so far and I just don’t see the Huskies getting more than 17 to 20 points in this game unless the Beavers are very negative in turnovers. Oregon State will probably only have to score 30 to 35 points to cover the spread in this game and the Huskies have allowed an average of 42 points to teams that are collectively 0.3 yppl worse offensively than Oregon State would be on the road against an average team. Oregon State, meanwhile, has faced only one worse than average defense and the Beavers scored 66 points in that game last week against Washington State despite turning the ball over 4 times. Oregon State has a history of beating up on mediocre and bad conference foes under coach Mike Riley, whose team is now 16-4 ATS in conference games against teams with a win percentage of .500 or lower (5-0 ATS since last season). The Huskies, meanwhile, are now just 6-17 ATS in Pac-10 games when not an underdog of at least 20 points under coach Willingham. Perhaps the line on this game is much lower than it should be because people remember Washington’s near upset of an overrated BYU team. However, Washington was out-gained 5.0 yppl to 7.4 yppl and it was a fluke that they were even close in that contest. I’ll take Oregon State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -17 points.
3 Star Selection
***Missouri 37 TEXAS (-5.0) 32
05:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
The line on this game is a bit off due to last week’s disparate results, with Texas upsetting Oklahoma and Missouri getting upset by Oklahoma State, and the Tigers apply to a great bounce-back situation this week to go along with the line value that last week provided. Missouri lost last week to a very good Oklahoma State team due to 3 rare interceptions by Chase Daniel, who had thrown just 1 in 5 previous games, but the Tigers out-gained the Cowboys 6.5 yards per play to 6.0 yppl – which is very good considering Oklahoma State would out-gain an average team 6.7 yppl to 5.1 yppl on the road. Texas, meanwhile, was out-gained by an average of 6.3 yppl to 6.7 yppl by Oklahoma but took advantage of a +2 in turnover margin to win that game. The Longhorns did actually perform very well, as Oklahoma would out-gain an average team 6.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl on a neutral field. So, Missouri was 2.1 yppl better than an average team in defeat last week while Texas was 1.9 yppl better than average in victory. The season numbers for these two teams also favor the Tigers, as Missouri has been an incredible 2.6 yppl better than average offensively with Chase Daniel in the game (8.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. Texas has been 1.4 yppl better than average offensively with Colt McCoy under center, but I rate the Longhorns attack at +1.7 yppl with RB Chris Ogbonnaya as the main back the last two games (he’s averaging 7.1 ypr while the other two main backs have averaged just 3.7 ypr). The Longhorns’ defense has been just 0.4 yppl better than average this season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they gave up 6.7 yppl and 8.7 yards per pass play to Oklahoma last week and Missouri’s offense is better than that of the Sooners. Missouri actually has a huge advantage from the line of scrimmage using all games played by both teams (Missouri is a total of +3.1 yppl and Texas is at +2.1 yppl), but the Tigers racked up some big numbers against bad teams and I decided to do a profile analysis to get a better idea of how good each team has fared against good competition. Missouri’s offense has faced two better than average defensive teams in Illinois and Oklahoma State and the Tigers are have been a less incredible 1.6 yppl better than average on offense in those 2 games (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) while the Texas defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average in the only game they’ve played against a good offensive team (last week against Oklahoma). Texas has faced two better than average defensive teams (the last two week against Colorado and Oklahoma) and the Longhorns’ attack has been 1.4 yppl better than average in those games (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 4.7 yppl). Missouri’s defense, meanwhile, has had to face 4 good offensive teams this season in Illinois, Nevada, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State and the Tigers have been 0.8 yppl better than average defensively in those games, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 6.4 yppl against an average team. The profile analysis reveals that Missouri has been 2.4 yppl better than average against good competition (+1.6 yppl on offense and +0.8 yppl on defense) while Texas has been +1.5 yppl better than average against better competition (+1.4 yppl on offense and +0.1 yppl on defense) – so Missouri still has a solid advantage. Neither quarterback makes a habit of throwing interceptions (I project Texas with a +0.3 turnover margin) and Missouri only has a slight edge in special teams and it is pretty clear to me that the Tigers are the better team getting nearly a touchdown. Missouri’s loss last week also sets them up in a very strong 25-1 ATS subset of a 65-12 ATS bounce-back situation that has been very good to me over the years (23-5 ATS since I discovered the situation). I’ll take Missouri in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more, for 4-Stars at +6 or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points.
2 Star Selection
**NAVY 30 Pittsburgh (-3.0) 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Pittsburgh is an overrated team with a 1-4 spread mark that is suddenly ranked because they beat another overrated team in South Florida two weeks ago. The Panthers have out-gained an average schedule of opponents by only 5.1 yards per play to 4.8 yppl while rating at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. The Pitt defense, while very good overall, isn’t good defending the run (5.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), so the match-up against Navy’s option attack is a bad one for the Panthers – whose great pass defense is a non-factor in this game. Pittsburgh had a very good run defense last season and still couldn’t handle Navy’s option attack in a 45-48 loss in which the Midshipmen racked up 497 total yards at 5.9 yppl. Navy’s offense this season is as good as ever, as the Middies have averaged 5.7 yppl in 5 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team. Navy isn’t as good with backup quarterback Jarod Bryant running the attack (just 0.4 yppl better than average), but starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has practiced with the first team unit this week and looks like he may be ready to play on his strained hamstring. Navy is 1.1 yppl better than average with Kaheaku-Enhada at quarterback, but I’ll assume Bryant will play the entire game just to be conservative. Navy’s defense is still an issue, as they rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average, but Pittsburgh likes to run the ball and the Middies are good against the run (4.2 yprp allowed in 5 Division 1A games against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average defense). While Pittsburgh would rate a slight edge overall from the line of scrimmage, the match-up of Navy’s run-heavy attack makes a Pitt defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average less effective and my math model projects Navy to average 6.1 yppl with 344 rushing yards while Pitt manages just 5.4 yppl with their bad offense going up against Navy’s bad defense. Navy should be favored in this game even if I assume Kaheaku-Enhada will not play for the Midshipmen, which is probably not the case. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.15 odds or better) and I’d consider Navy a Strong Opinion from +2 ½ to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
**NEVADA (-21.0) 46 Utah St. 16
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Nevada did not match up well with New Mexico State last week, as the Aggies were able to exploit the week Wolf Pack secondary in a 48-45 upset win. Nevada is now 1.7 yards per pass play worse than average defensively (7.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average team), but Utah State’s porous pass attack is not likely to exploit that weakness today and the Wolf Pack are among the best in the nation defending the run (3.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp). Utah State’s dual quarterbacks have averaged only 5.0 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) and the Aggies have managed just 4.7 yards per play overall this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Nevada is 0.6 yppl worse than average overall defensively, but that number is skewed by the 10.0 yppl they gave up to Missouri and the Wolf Pack gave up a reasonable 4.2 yppl at Idaho, the only average or worse Division 1A offense that they’ve faced (Idaho would average 4.5 yppl at home against an average team), and they also allowed just 3.4 yppl to Grambling. Utah State may score around 20 points in this game, but Nevada has scored 45 points or more in all but the two games in which they faced good defensive teams in Texas Tech and Missouri. The Wolf Pack have averaged 7.0 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) with starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick on the field and Utah State, while not horrible defensively at 0.3 yppl worse than average, isn’t good enough to stop Nevada from scoring. Kaepernick is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation (673 yards on 58 rushing plays) while also being a good passer (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Kaepernick has thrown just 6 interceptions in 395 career pass attempts. Nevada also has two running backs that have averaged over 6 yards per rush and they are tough to stop. Utah State has faced just one team with good running backs and a running quarterback and the Aggies allowed 425 rushing yards at 8.3 yprp and 66 points at Oregon, so they don’t figure to have much luck stopping Nevada today. My math model only favors Nevada by 22 points, but the Wolf Pack apply to a very strong 75-17 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 10-2 ATS for me since I discovered it a few years ago. I’ll take Nevada in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Stanford (-1.5) 29 UCLA 19
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Stanford starting quarterback Tavita Pritchard was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion and was playing very well at the time, but backup Alex Loukas led the game winning drive over Arizona running a spread option attack that surprised the Wildcats. Pritchard has been upgraded to probable and the Cardinal are a much better team than UCLA. Stanford’s offense has averaged 5.6 yppl when Pritchard has been in the game (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average team) and while Pritchard’s numbers are a bit below average, the Cardinal have two very good running backs in Toby Gerhart (641 yards at 5.8 ypr) and Anthony Kimble (419 yards at 6.3 ypr) and have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow just 4.6 yprp to an average team). UCLA has given up 5.5 yprp this season (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team) and they gave up 345 rushing yards at 8.6 yprp last week at Oregon and could stop Fresno State either (219 yards at 5.8 yprp) – so Stanford’s rushing attack should work well. Overall UCLA’s defense is just 0.2 yppl better than average, so the Cardinal have an advantage when they have the ball. Stanford also has an advantage when the Bruins have the ball. UCLA’s porous attack has averaged only 4.5 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while the Stanford defense is 0.1 yppl better than average. Stanford also has superior special teams in addition to being 1.4 yppl better than UCLA on offense and only 0.1 yppl worse than the Bruins on defense. In addition to the line value, the Cardinal apply to a very strong 71-19-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
Thursday Strong Opinion
Florida St. (-11.0) 35 NO CAROLINA ST. 17
04:45 PM Pacific, 16-Oct-08
Florida State opened the season with easy wins over bad Division 1AA teams, but the Seminoles have looked very good in 3 games against 1A teams, out-gaining Wake Forest, Colorado, and Miami-Florida 5.1 yards per play to 4.1 yppl. Florida State would have looked more impressive on the scoreboard in those 3 games had it not been for a -6 in turnover margin and the ‘Noles should have no problem winning this game if they can avoid being -3 in turnovers or worse. Christian Ponder has thrown 6 interceptions in 110 passes, but he’s not likely to continue to throw picks at that high pace and he may not need to throw the ball at all to lead his team against a bad NC State defense that hasn’t been able to defend any team since losing star LB Nate Irving against East Carolina in week 4. Irving was the only impact player on the Wolfpack defense, as he was their top tackler and had 5 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions and 2 other passes broken up in just over 3 games. NC State was about average defensively in their first 3 games with Irving, but they have allowed 6.6 yppl in their last 3 games to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. The Wolfpack haven’t been able to defend the run (5.5 yprp allowed) or the pass (7.6 yppp) without Irving and Florida State’s rushing attack, which has averaged 230 yards at 5.6 yprp in 3 Division 1A games (against teams would allow just 4.2 yprp to an average team), will control this game and allow Ponder to limit his turnovers by not having to throw as often. NC State has had some interception issues as well this season, but that is not the case with Russell Wilson back at quarterback, as Wilson has thrown just 1 interception on 90 pass attempts. Wilson, however, has only averaged 4.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and the Wolfpack don’t have a good ground game to rely on (just 3.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.4 yprp to an average team). Florida State’s defense has been 0.8 yppl better than average in their 3 Division 1A games and I don’t see the Wolfpack having much success against that unit. The Seminoles are a much better team and I’ll consider Florida State a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less and I’d take Florida State as a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
IOWA (-3.5) 30 Wisconsin 19
09:00 AM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I pegged Wisconsin as the most overrated team in the nation heading into the season (I played them under 9 wins) and that prognosis has proven pretty accurate given their consecutive losses to Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. Wisconsin is a pretty good offensive team that rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack) and the Badgers are pretty good on defense too (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense). Pretty good isn’t likely to be good enough to win on the road against an underrated Iowa team that rates at 0.8 yppl better than average on offense with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. Stanzi split time with incumbent Jake Christenson the first 4 games, but he has established himself as the better quarterback – averaging 7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Iowa’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 5.1 yppl and 22 points to any team all season. In addition to their advantage from the line of scrimmage, the Hawkeyes are also considerably better in special teams and certainly should be favored by more than the standard home field advantage. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion from -3 ½ to -5 points and I’d take the Hawkeyes in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (-115 odds or better) or less.
Strong Opinion
Southern Miss 35 RICE (-2.0) 31
12:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
What we have here are two teams that are comparable offensively while one team is much better defensively and in special teams – and the better team is getting points. Rice is a pretty good offensive team that has averaged 5.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. Southern Miss is also mediocre offensively, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. There is a big difference on the defensive side of the ball, as the Eagles are 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) while Rice is a horrible 1.1 yppl worse than average on the stop side of the ball (6.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). The only reason Rice is close to even in scoring margin (39.0 to 39.2 points) is because they are +6 in turnover margin and have returned 4 interceptions for touchdowns – a trend that is not likely to continue at that pace (my math model forecasts a +0.4 turnover margin for Rice in this game). Southern Miss star running back Damion Fletcher (749 yards at 5.9 ypr) could top 200 yards in this game against an Owls’ defensive front that has allowed 6.3 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team. The Southern Miss attack has been shut down by good defensive teams that can stop the run (the scored an average of just 10 points against Auburn and Boise State), but the Eagles have averaged 35.5 points in their other 4 games against teams that are collectively 0.4 yppl better defensively than Rice. Rice is going to get their share of points too, but the line on this game should be pick and the Eagles apply to a solid 123-59-3 ATS situation. On line value alone the Eagles have solid 54.0% chance of covering at +2 and the technical analysis is in their favor as well. I’ll consider Southern Miss a Strong Opinion at +2 points or more and I’d take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
OKLAHOMA ST. (-16.5) 43 Baylor 20
12:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
It may seem that Oklahoma State should be in a letdown situation after winning at Missouri as a huge underdog last week, but that actually isn’t the case. The Cowboys actually apply to a 55-19 ATS situation that plays on home favorites after winning straight up as a double-digit dog and that angle is 6-0 ATS for unbeaten teams after beating a previously unbeaten team, so it doesn’t appear that Oklahoma State is likely to letdown – especially given their habit of beating up on lesser teams (11-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points the last 3 seasons). Baylor is a solid team that is very good offensively with Robert Griffin at quarterback (0.9 yppl better than average) and the Bears are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would allow 5.1 yppl against an average team). A bit better than average on defense is not going to be enough to contain a great Cowboys’ attack that has averaged 7.5 yppl with Zac Robinson at the helm (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Oklahoma State also showed last week that they are a pretty good defensive squad too and they now rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on defense. Oklahoma State is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season and my math model favors the Cowboys by 22 points over what I think is an underrated Baylor team, so there is still some value in siding with Oklahoma State. I’m still going to resist playing on Oklahoma State as a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Oklahoma State a Strong Opinion in this game at -17 points or less.
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (-7.5) 24 Mississippi St. 10
04:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Hidden by Tennessee’s 2-4 record is the fact that the Volunteers have one of the best defensive units in the nation. The Vols have allowed just 4.3 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team, and that includes limiting the very good offensive units of Florida and Georgia to a combined 5.3 yppl (those teams would combine to average 7.2 yppl against an average defense). Tennessee’s defense should dominate a bad Miss State attack that has averaged just 4.6 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Having Tyson Lee at quarterback has not improved the Bulldogs’ compensated yards per play numbers, but Lee has not thrown an interception in 93 passes while former starter Wesley Carroll was picked off 6 times in 95 pass attempts – so Lee is an improvement. Tennessee’s new quarterback Nick Stephens has also been void of interceptions on his 49 passes and he appears to be a major improvement over former starter Jonathan Crompton. Crompton averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) in his 4 starts while Stephens has averaged 6.2 yppp (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp) in his 2 starts, which doesn’t include 42 yards on 2 passes early in the season against UAB. Tennessee’s offense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season and they will probably struggle against a solid Mississippi State defense even with Stephens at quarterback. Miss State has been only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively in 6 games, but they were abused by the good offenses of Georgia Tech and LSU, allowing 7.3 yppl in those games, while being very stingy against the 4 sub-par offensive teams that they faced. The Rebels yielded just 3.6 yppl in those 4 games against bad offensive teams that would combine to average 4.5 yppl against an average team and Tennessee won’t move the ball that well if that Miss State defense shows up. I still get Tennessee by 14 points in this game even if I assume that Miss State will play at that better level of defense. Tennessee is coming off a 14-26 loss to Georgia last week and Phillip Fulmer’s teams have always been very good at bouncing-back from losses. In fact, Tennessee is 14-1 ATS under Fulmer after losing by more than 7 points if they are not favored by more than 14 points, including a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1995. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less. I’d take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion UNDER
UNDER (54 1/2) - California (-2.5) 24 ARIZONA 23
07:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Cal and Arizona are both known for their explosive offensive units, but both of these teams are much stronger defensively than given credit for. Cal’s offense has averaged a very good 6.4 yards per play (against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but the Bears have 3 running plays that have gone for 80 yards or more and that is not something that is likely to repeat itself. Cal will certainly bust huge TD runs with their explosive backs Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen, but those runs aren’t likely to come at the 20 yard line or further from the goal line, so those long runs need to be adjusted to account for the future. Doing so would lower Cal’s rushing attack rating to 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average rather than 1.1 yprp better than average. However, Cal is better off with Nate Longshore as the starting quarterback, as Kevin Riley just misses too many open receivers, and the Bears are 0.9 yards per pass play better than their season rating with Longshore behind center. So, the Bears actually rate at 0.9 yppl better than average with Best back in the lineup this week (he missed the ASU game) and Longshore remaining at quarterback (which I assume he will after a solid performance against a good ASU defense). Arizona’s defense has been 0.7 yppl better than average, allowing just 4.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Cal only has a 0.2 yppl advantage over the Wildcats’ defense in this game. Arizona’s offense has averaged 40 points per game, but they are actually just 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack) and rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average with Willie Tuitama behind center. Cal’s defense hasn’t received a lot of national praise yet, but the Bears are among the top 10 defensive units in the nation. Cal has yielded just 4.1 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and the Bears have allowed 14 points or less in 3 of their 5 games. The 31 points Cal allowed to Michigan State is misleading as only 17 were the fault of the defense and Maryland’s 35 points is also misleading given that the Terrapins averaged just 4.8 yppl in that game. The Bears have a significant advantage over Arizona’s offense, but the Wildcats will throw the ball much more in this game than they have in their lopsided wins in which they simply started running the ball with a huge lead. I still forecast Arizona with just 311 total yards at 4.8 yppl even after adjusting for Arizona’s extra likelihood to throw the ball. Cal, meanwhile, is projected to gain 346 yards at 5.4 yppl, so neither offense is expected to gain more than the national average of 5.4 yppl. My projected math model score in this game is Cal 23.4 to Arizona’s 23.1 and the reason for the total being so much higher is because these teams have had games that are significantly higher scoring than they really should have been based on normal scoring efficiencies. Not only has Cal had 3 one play drives of 80 yards or more but there have been 6 non-offensive touchdowns in Cal’s 5 games (instead of the 1 or 2 you might expect at this point in the season). Meanwhile, there have been 4 non-offensive touchdowns in Arizona’s 6 games this season and it appears as if the oddsmakers haven’t taken into account the fact that those 10 non-offensive touchdowns involving these two teams is extremely random and is not likely to continue. This game has a 55.7% chance of going Under 54 ½ points based on the historical performance of my math model picking totals and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 54 points or higher (54.7% at 54 points).