10-19-08

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio's 25* AFC Game of the Year **60% NFL Run**
Play on Tennessee at 1:00 ET. Larger favorites have not been the way to go this year in the NFL, but considering the matchup, this number is very manageable. In fact, it's way low. Throw Kansas City's 33-19 win over Denver, three weeks ago, right out the window. They came right back the next week and were crushed 34-0 by Carolina, gaining only 127 yards of total offense in the process. Before the 4th quarter started (when the game was far out of reach), they only had 77 yards! Now, they are switching back to Brodie Croyle at QB, the team's FIFTH change under center already this season. Herm Edwards might say "You play to WIN the game," but his team must not be listening as they have lost 13 of 14 games going back to last season and are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 home games. There goes the old homefield advantage that used to exist at Arrowhead. Meanwhile, the 2008 season couldn't be going any more differently for Tennessee. They are the only unbeaten team in the league (both SU and ATS) and while we would normally go against such a team, expecting a letdown, that's not the case with Jeff Fisher who is on a 13-3 ATS run away from home against teams with a win % of .250 or less. They are 13-5-1 ATS their last 19 games overall. The favorite has won and covered three straight in this H2H series. All of these streaks include a 26-17 Titans win here in KC last December. Over their last 10 games, the Titans have not allowed a single opponent to score more than 19 points. Over the same time, they are averaging 23 PPG on offense. They are #1 this year in the league in scoring defense, allowing an average of just 11.2 PPG. KC is also experiencing OL issues with promising rookie Branden Albert possibly out, meaning they have no chance against Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. As a team, they have no chance either. Tennessee is our 25* AFC Game of the Year!

Good luck, Lenny

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin Kavitch Overall 21-12-1 after Week 6. Tops are now 5-1-0. ATS picks are 18-8-1 69%, totals are 3-4-0.

Solid matchup advantages and a good situation based on recent games. Both teams are 3-3 but Chicago has 3 close losses including a tough one last week on the road vs the Falcons. Minnesota squeeeked by the lowly Lions at home to climb back to .500. The Bears have been very solid vs the run, even better than the Vikings and what impresses me is Chicago's improvements in the passing game. Orton a top 10 fantasy QB? Strange but true and Hester is looking like a real WR. So running yards will have to be earned on both sides but Chicago has the tools to attack the below average Viking pass defence. Combined with a special teams edge, home field advantage, and last week's results I expect Chicago to be the better motivated team and earn a solid win and cover. Take Chicago -3 for a 4* Regular Play.


The Giants may have lost big last week but good teams don't bounce back as well as most people assume after their 1st loss. Double-digits vs a team that has things going for them on offence and defence? San Fran has played an unfortunate schedule losing to HIGHLY motivated teams recently to drop to 2-4. They had an excellent chance to take out the Eagles last week (leading) before turnovers killed them. At 2-4 and feeling they're better than their record shows they'll also have their fair share of motivation. Opposite line move in this one too as a bonus. Giants open at -12 and bets have poured in on them because "they'll be mad". However, the line is now at -10.5. Hmmm, I wonder why they're not -13 if so many love them? Like I've mentioned almost weekly, we've seen this movie before. Small, public (& typically losing) bets love the Giants but sharp money has created an opposite line-move. Take San Francisco +10.5 for a 4* Regular Play

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
Houston-8 1/2... 1unit
Tampa Bay-10 1/2...1 unit
Denver + 3 ....3 units

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!!
Pick # 1 Carolina Panthers (-3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet413 DAL -7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 414 STL
Analysis:
The Washington Redskins were in the worst spot of all NFL teams last week and who did they play? You guessed it the St. Louis Rams.



The Rams were outgained by nearly 200 yards, but due to the Redskins sloppy play throughout the game - St. Louis pulled off the victory.



Now enter the Dallas Cowboys - a team that's an AMAZING 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a road loss. That's right and they played deplorable football against Arizona last week.



I'm not about to back a faulty 1-4 team that benefited from playing off a bye week and catching a double-digit favorite team napping. Romo or not - America's team big on Sunday.






Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Total
double-dime bet412 MIA / 411 BAL Under 36.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Running the ball and defense.....That's how the Baltimore Ravens are going to try to win their first road game in quite some time.



Baltimore hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in nearly two years and that's the basis of how Miami has been scoring points - establishing the run game and then letting Chad Pennington pick his spots. Problem is - Pennington can't extend the defense of Baltimore with his arm strength.



The UNDER is 6-1 in the Ravens last seven games in playing the second game of back-to-back road games. That certainly helps with the UNDER being 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two clubs.



On Miami's defensive end - they will certainly sure things up against the pass versus the Ravens, as Flacco has yet to prove himself as a drop back passer in this league. The UNDER is 22-5 in the Dolphins last 27 games after allowing 250 or more passing yards.



Baltimore has been flexing its defensive strength as a road underdog of this type for years - with the UNDER being 34-16 in their last 50 getting seven points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 TEN -9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 406 KAN
Analysis:


Tennessee -9

Kansas City is in bad shape. Larry Johnson is suspended, the Tony Gonzalez mess is all over the media, including his tirades over not being traded, defensive leader Donnie Edwards is still out, and Herm Edwards has been under fire all week. DISTRACTIONS AND DIS-ILLUSIONS. They are off a bye wee after getting waxed 34-0 by Carolina and all these distractions pale by comparison to the fact QB Brodie Croyle gets the start against a Tennessee team who is undefeated, with a awesome front four, one of the best teams in the AFC who unlike Denver, who came in here not ready to play and KC beat them. Jeff Fishers boys will show up with a baseball bat bat and beat them badly on the line of scrimmage and dominate. KC Averages 13 points a game and give up 26 ppg. Crazy things happen in the NFL every week and it is not a good idea many times to lay 9 on the road, but this is a BAD KC team against a great team who is always ready to play and win. Word is QB Vince Young will see time as a slot back and at WR, possibly some direct snap plays as well. Titans simply too much for KC, it could get ugly.

Play 1.5 Units by Tennessee - Top Play


Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet407 SDC 1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 408 BUF
Analysis:
San Diego +1

Tim to look at schedules. Buffalo off a beat down 41-17 at Arizona before the bye week, and that was really the only good team they have played bewside JAX. The Bills do play well at home, but the Chargers here in a pick em type game have the better better QB, better RB and better defense. Hard to go against that, even on the road and off a confidence building butt kicking of New England where they dominated that game in every respect last Sunday Night. Trent Edwards will start for the Bills, but look for the Chargers to win this by a TD or more. Buffalos run of 4-1 included wins over St. Louis, Oakland Seattle, all teams with big losing records and 1 win over JAX when they were struggling. That is one quality win. The chargers got ripped off in Denver or would be 4-2 and I see them gain momentum as the seasons builds. Look for Sproles to have a big day on special teams here too.

Play 1 Unit on he Bolts

2-Team 6- Point Teaser. Tease the NY Giants down to -4.5 and tease Houston down to -2.5......Play 1 Unit...thanks and good luck..Tony George



Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Total
dime bet416 CHI / 415 MIN Over 37.5 BetUS
Analysis:
OVER 38 Chicago / Minnesota

This game always plays over and with such hype around both defenses, the bottom line is that Minnesota has let people run an throw all over them all season. Atlanta moved the chains at will last week against Chicago. Peterson from Minny ran for over 350 yards on the Bears last year, and although it will be tough to match those numbers again, he will move the chains. Bears 17-4 ATS on the OVER the last 21 at home, and Minny has went over in every game they played on the road this year. Many see this as a smash mouth NFC battle, but I think both teams care capable of 20+ points or more each.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog Comp
Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Sunday 10/19 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cincinnati +10 (-120)


Both of these teams have been beaten up through the first six weeks of the season. Pittsburgh may be the healthier of the two, and they are certainly in better shape record-wise at 4-1 vs. Cincy's 0-6. The Steelers likely just want to get out of here with a win, knowing they have a big challenge at home next week against the Superbowl Champ Giants. Following that big game are games against Washington, Indianapolis and San Diego. So the 0-6 Bengals, without Carson Palmer, can't excite the Steelers here and I don't see them expending too much energy as a result. That makes this a dangerous game, because this is a division matchup and the Bengals have played to the level of the competition this season. They have played a very difficult schedule, but they aren't getting blown out by the big teams they face. They more than held their own against three powerhouses on the road, dropping a 9-point decision in Dallas (covering a 17 point spread), taking the Giants to OT in New York, and losing by just a TD at Baltimore. All of those games resulted in smaller final margins than this spread. The Bengals are home and hungry for their first win and would like nothing more than to see it come vs. the Steelers. It may surprise some that 0-6 teams have shown good value, as they are 5-3 ATS since 2000. I look for the Bengals to catch the Steelers napping here, as they did vs. the Cowboys two weeks ago. The Steelers are rested off a bye, but that hasn't helped them in the past as they are just 5-10 ATS in their last fifteen post-bye games. They are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following a win. Bengals plus the points here.

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | NFL Total
triple-dime bet428 GBP / 427 IND Over 47.0 BetUS
Analysis: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was finally throwing the ball in practice on Thursday for the first time in several weeks, a sure sign he is getting back to 100 percent healthy after dealing with a shoulder injury. That will only help him against a depleted Colts defense that is missing top CB Kelvin Hayden and 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, who both remain out with knee injuries. The Ravens weren't able to take advantage of Indy last week at home, but Green Bay should be ready to explode and score at least four touchdowns for the first time since a 48-25 win at Detroit back on September 14th. The Colts are also starting to hit their stride offensively, putting up 31 points in back-to-back-wins against the Texans and Ravens. With Indy RB Joseph Addai sidelined the next few weeks with a partially torn hamstring, I expect QB Peyton Manning to air it out against a Green Bay secondary that is still hurting without CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby. The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 games on grass for the Packers and 7-1 in their last eight home games, so bet the OVER to cash here as well as my Triple Dime NFL Total Play O' the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 TEN -7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 406 KAN
Analysis:
Titans -7.5



Analysis: When we last witnessed the Chiefs they were being held to 127 yards in a 34-0 loss to Carolina, of which 50 of those yards came during a meaningless fourth quarter. It was the Chiefs' lowest yardage total in 22 years.

The Chiefs are horrible on offense. Quarterback Brodie Croyle is winless in seven career NFL starts. The Titans are holding foes to an NFL-low 11.2 points per game. They've held each of their last 10 opponents to less than 20 points during regulation, while averaging 23 points themselves during this span.

Kerry Collins is playing well for Tennessee. He's only been sacked once despite his lack of mobility. The Titans have good morale and a huge coaching edge with both teams coming off a bye.

Morale is terrible on Kansas City. The veterans feel betrayed by Herm Edwards already looking to next year. The fans are down on the Chiefs, too. Arrowhead Stadium has lost its luster. The Chiefs are 2-7-1 against the spread during their past 10 home contests.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is 13-5 against the spread in its past 18 contests.

The time to play this game is now as the line is just going to keep climbing.

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Sunday NFL

5* Dallas -7

5* Houston -9.5

3* Indianapolis -1

3* Tampa Bay -10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers - Sunday October 19, 2008 1:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Carolina Panthers -3 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence's PLAYBOOK

Tennessee over KANSAS CITY by 3
Yeah, they’re feelin’ real good about themselves these days, are the Titans.
A 5-0 SU and ATS start to the season, including the last four minus the
services of starting QB Vince Young, has them focused on winning the AFC
South Division and advancing on to the playoffs. Fresh off a week of rest
with a scrimmage against the lowly Chiefs this Sunday before next week’s
showdown with the Colts practically puts them in a rocking chair. WARNING
Label Attached: they had better not fall asleep in the Tee Pee this week.
Many a team has done just that as evidenced by Kansas City’s sterling 26-6
ATS mark as a home dog against a foe off a win. Toss in Marc’s Betcha Didn’t
Know WAKE UP CALL article from Issue 7 of this year’s PLAYBOOK newsletter
and you suddenly have a road favorite not feeling all that good about their
chances this week. From good to bad, just like that, the Titans will be hard
pressed to make it six straight at the expense of the Featherheads today.
Take the points, kemosabe.

BUFFALO over San Diego by 3
Here we go again, another West Coast club playing on the East Coast in a
10 AM body clock start. The scheduling fl ummox has left the Left Coasters
with a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark to date this season. To make matters worse,
the Bills also have the benefi t of a week of rest to prepare. The fl y in the
ointment, though, comes from the fact that Buffi e takes the fi eld off its fi rst
loss of the season. That’s because teams in this role in Game Six matchups
against non-division opponents are just 3-12-1 ATS in the following game
since 1980. Still, it’s hard to dismiss a winning home dog with much the
better stats (read: defense) in this biological schedule maker’s gift. Expect
the Bolts to blow another fuse.

Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI by 3
First it was Scott Linehan. Then came Lane Kiffi n. The question begs, will
Marvin Lewis make it an NFL coaches’ hat trick before season’s end? Stay
tuned. Since his hire in 2003 the Bengals are 42-45, including 7-18 in their last
25 games and 0-6 this season. The good news is that 0-6 home dogs playing
with revenge in Game Seven of the season are 5-0 ATS dating back to 1980.
Better news is that Cincinnati is a fully qualifi ed UGLY PIG, those being home
dogs that started the season 0-4 in their fi rst four games. Simply put, these
PIGS become plays anytime they dress up as home dogs in games off back-toback
losses from Game Five on out where they’ve gone 77-40-1 ATS in this role,
including 42-21-1 against an opponent off a win. Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin
chips in with his 1-7 ATS road record in games off a win. Sporting a blustery
15-3 ATS mark at home against opponents off a road win, we’ve done what
we can to help save Marvin’s neck. The rest is up to him and his Black Cats.

4* BEST BET
Baltimore over MIAMI BY 10
The Miami Wildcats, err Dolphins, return to South Beach off last week’s
gut-wrenching loss at Houston, a game in which they allowed the
Texans to march down the fi eld during the fi nal minute of play to turn
a win into a crushing loss on Houston’s fi nal possession. When last we
saw them at home they benefi ted from an aforementioned WAKE UP
CALL in a 17-10 win over the Chargers. They’ll dress up today as favorites
for the fi rst time in the Tony Sparano era, a role in which they’ve failed
miserably the past two years (0-4 SU and ATS). It fi ts nicely into a scenario
that fi nds home favorites just 1-9 ATS since 1990 who were road dogs
in their previous game and SU home dog winners as +6 or more two
games ago. Meanwhile, the Ravens bring their top-ranked defense into
the fray off three straight losses knowing they are 13-4 ATS in games
off 3 L’s and back-to-back spread losses, including 9-1 against a foe off a
spread win. Welcome to the world of NFL chalk, Tony.

Dallas over ST LOUIS by 7
And so it is, Tony Romo has been offi cially established as a ‘4-point
quarterback’. It’s confi rmed by the fact that the original send out on this
game was Dallas -11. When word got out about Romo’s pinkie being in
distress, the adjusted number became Dallas -7. The resolve is whether Brad
Johnson can carry the 4-point defi ciency and if the Rams can take the fi eld
without being drunk-from-victory. According to the NFL QB LEAGUE inside
the HANDICAPPERS LOUNGE at PLAYBOOK.COM, Johnson is 6-10 ATS in his
last sixteen tries as a road favorite, including 0-2 when laying more than 7
points. Then again NFL home dogs returning off a SU road win as a dog of
+10 or more points are just 3-17 SU and ATS in their last twenty tries. With
both teams in rotten roles it’s sometimes best to sit back and observe. We
will do just that. Pass.

CHICAGO over Minnesota by 6
If you thought Miami’s last second loss was tough, Chicago’s defeat at
Atlanta last week was just plain brutal. After taking the lead with 11 seconds
remaining in the game, the Bears kicked off – only to allow the Falcons to
complete a 26-yard pass with one-second left. It set up a 48-yard fi eld goal
by Jason Elam, sending the Bears back to .500-ville. Minnesota’s 2nd ugly win
in a row elevates the Vikings to the same plateau as the Bears, making this
division duke-out important for both squads. A quick check of our database
shows Game Seven .500 teams off a loss taking on a .500 foe off a win to
be 9-2 ATS since 1980, including a perfect 5-0 at home. With Minny a notso-
mighty 2-14 ATS as a road dog versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss,
look for Chicago to shake off last week’s heartbreaker as the Vikings offense
(scored more than 20 points only one time this season) remains in shackles.

New Orleans over CAROLINA by 3
If history is your cup of tea then this is your tea-n-crumpet game of the
week. It’s served with notice that the visiting team in this series is 13-0 ATS.
A second serving is poured over the Saints’ 11-1 ATS mark as a single-digit
division road dog this decade. Head coach Sean Payton orders a cup to go
with his 7-1 ATS career log as a dog against .500 or greater opponents. And
just to prove that tea can do that, Carolina’s 0-8 ATS record as an October
home favorite, and its 3-12-1 ATS record as a .500 or greater home favorite
against .500 or greater opponent, fi nishes setting the table. Sure, tea-trends
like these tend to get into more hot water than anything but when poured
over ice they’re refreshing as all get out.

NY GIANTS over San Francisco by 14
Not the best of roles for most teams, especially for defending Super Bowl
champs. New York returns to the Apple off Monday night’s ambush in
Cleveland to host the 49ers. These same two teams met on this fi eld last
year when the G-Men prevailed, 33-15, as 9.5-point favorites. The weight
of their Super Bowl rings and an impressive start to the 2008 season add to
the impost this year. While defending Super Bowl champs turn into chumps
when laying double-digits at home (38-53-5 ATS since 1980), the West Coast
traveler in an early post time will likely keep us neutral to this game.

3* BEST BET
Detroit over HOUSTON by 6
The Texans did everything they could to lose last week’s game but in the
end they couldn’t. They dominated the Dolphins from start to fi nish yet
continually kept the Fish in the game with turnovers and penalties…
all signs of a team certainly struggling to gain an identity. On the other
side of the fi eld the Lions put together their most complete effort of
the season, albeit a 5th consecutive loss. The bottom line here is the
Texans are off a one-point maiden victory and fi nd themselves laying
more than a touchdown to a hungry Lion. Given Houston’s 4-9 ATS
mark in its expansion career as a favorite of 2 or more points, and the
fact that 1-4 teams off their fi rst win of the season are a wallet burning
0-7 ATS in Game Six against a foe off back-to-back losses, there is only
one thing to do here… roar!

NY Jets over OAKLAND by 7
The Flyboys parlayed Carson Palmer’s bum elbow and New York’s throwback
jerseys into a win-and-cover over the toothless Bengals last week and are
now one game back of Buffalo for the top spot in the AFC East Division.
While they were busy accomplishing that feat the Raiders no-showed in
New Orleans as the Al Davis destruction train continues to derail. You
would think the most imposing number inside this game is Oakland’s
pathetic 2-15 SU and ATS mark as a home dog of 8 or less points. It’s not.
That is far surpassed by its wretched 2-97-1 ATS log in SU home losses since
1980. No, that is not a misprint… 2-97-1! Do you want any of that? We
didn’t think so.

WASHINGTON over Cleveland by 4
Two teams off disparate results can often times bring value to a game
provided, of course, the loser is hungry and the winner is fat. That’s not
necessarily the case here today, however, as the Hogs aren’t exactly suffering
from hunger pangs while the Browns suddenly have a new sense of life.
Cleveland’s sparkling 11-0 ATS mark off a non-division game versus an
opponent off the same sets the table. Washington’s 6-15 SU and 6-14-1 ATS
log in games off a SU loss as a favorite doesn’t exactly endear one to want to
lay points. Blowouts aside, should we get hungry when the late games arrive
we’ll likely order up a side of Brownies.

GREEN BAY over Indianapolis by 3
It’s amazing what winning a game that had loss written all over it can do for
a team. The Colts looked headed to a 1-3 start when the Texans gifted Indy
to victory with key turnovers leading to 21 points in the fi nal four minutes
of the game. Just like that, Peyton and company are in 2nd place in the
division with their sights fi rmly set on the Titans. They’ll need to get past the
Packers in Green Bay fi rst, however, and it won’t be easy. Despite a 6-1 ATS
series mark, the last two visits to Lambeau Field have been disappointments,
each resulting in defeat. With the Packers off back-to-back previous home
losses and having an open date up next (9-1 SU at home regular season
before rest), you can rest assured they will surely bring everything to the
party here today.

TAMPA BAY over Seattle by 6
A switch of quarterbacks affected both teams in different ways last week.
Tampa turned to Jeff Garcia and responded with aplomb in a 27-3 romp
over Carolina while Seattle settled on Charlie Frye in Matt Hasselbeck’s
stead and were beat up at home in a 27-17 loss to Green Bay. As a result
the line in this contest has been adjusted. Over-adjusted would be a better
phrase. Looking back at the last three games in this series, the Seahawks
are 3-0 SU and ATS, winning 20-6 at home last year as 6-point favorites and
23-7 and 10-6 here the last two visits – as 3-point dogs and 3-point favorites.
So where does this line come from, you ask? Our best guess is because of
Frye who, by the way, is 6-1 ATS in his NFL starting career when his team is
off back-to-back losses. No surprise to see Mike Holmgren improve on his
14-5 SU and ATS career mark in games off back-to-back losses against an
opponent he beat in the most recent meeting. Too many points to pass on here.

Monday, October 20th

5* BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND ove Denver by 14
Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up, wouldn’t you say?

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Merril

NFL Steamroller Blowout!
Play COWBOYS (-).

NFL Game of the Week!
Play PACKERS (+).

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Budin
50 Dimer

Chicago Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Al Demarco
15 Dimer
Chicago Bears

[Mr. IWS]

kelso
10 bucs
10 pats
5 saints
3 steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law

DALLAS (4-2) Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams ST LOUIS (1-4)

The Dallas Cowboys (4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS) have certainly had one of the more controversial and chaotic work weeks for an NFL team in recent memory. The amount of attention generated by the "circus" that is the Dallas Cowboys these days was to say the least phenomenal. The starting point was the Cowboys very hard to swallow overtime loss in Arizona on Sunday. This by itself would have been enough to rattle most Cowboy fans. Then on Monday it was announced that superstar starting quarterback Tony Romo had broken his pinkie finger in that loss and would be out a month. Then Tuesday, just before the trade deadline, the Cowboys made a controversial trade for Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy Williams. Finally, it was announced that cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones was being suspended for his off-field exploits once again. Wow! Even with all that happening, the circus continues as the Cowboys now say that Romo may actually start something I personally do not think will happen. If Tony Romo does start, the line will most likely be adjusted out-of-whack and at that point this will become a "no play". Oh yeah, did I forget to mention their opponent? The Cowboys are playing the St. Louis Rams (1-4 SU & 2-4 ATS) this Sunday. The Rams are fresh off their surprising upset of the Redskins, a game that Washington gift-wrapped and handed to them.

Let's delve into that Rams win just a bit. Going into that game St. Louis had shown absolutely no signs of life, and were actually considered one of the 2 or 3 worst teams in the NFL. They had not even stayed within 14 points of any of their first 4 opponents. Two (2) blowout losses to the Eagles and Giants were followed up by an embarrassing 37-13 loss at the hands of the injury riddled Seahawks. That win by the way is Seattle's only win to date. Against the Redskins the Rams actually did very little of their own to generate that win. They were out-first downed 22-8. They were out gained 368-200, which included an 181-76 yard deficit on the ground. None of these numbers suggests to me that the Rams should have even stayed with 14 points in this game. Then we look at the 3-1 turnover advantage the Rams held in the game and it becomes a bit more plausible. The Rams offense did not even score an offensive touchdown in that game! Remarkable! Their only foray into the end zone came in the form of a 75 yard fumble return. Of their 4 field goal drives, 2 of them they actually lost yards on! That's right. After getting handed the ball at the 29 and 7 yard lines, they actually went backwards before kicking their field goals! I have laboriously gone over all these tidbits from the Redskins game to prove only one point, the Rams were every bit as bad in that game offensively as they have been all year. In fact, had they not been handed phenomenal field position all day long, they may have actually produced 6 points offensively.

The combination of the Redskins win and the media circus in Dallas does one thing, it creates tremendous line value for us in this game. Had Dallas somehow found a way to win last week and had the Rams not been handed a gift win, the line would be around 13 to 14 points in this game. I also don't mind a bit that Romo will not be the quarterback. Brad Johnson is a veteran QB who owns a Super Bowl ring. He may actually have a calming effect on this team. Tony Romo for all his flash and ability is careless with the football. Brad Johnson needs only guide the ship and limit mistakes for Dallas to win this game easily. My evidence from that win last week, does nothing but convince me further that the Rams are just an awful team that did nothing of their own to earn that win. The Dallas Cowboys are an almost automatic "public favorite" in betting circles. It is very rare that the books do not see 70+% of the action on Dallas games coming in on the Cowboys. Amid the swirl of controversy and turmoil this week, the bettors are staying away from Dallas like the plague. Not only are just 57% of the wagers coming in on the Cowboys, it is also the game on the board receiving the least action! This confirms to me everything I have already believed to be true. When public perception is swayed so far away from reality, that they start doubting their favorite teams to bet on, that is exactly when you MUST bet on them! Take the Cowboys, they should win by 3 touchdowns Sunday.

Verdict: Dallas 28, St. Louis 7
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON DALLAS -7

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning
20* buffalo
10*baltinore , carolina , detroit.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso
AFC GOM = Buff

NFL TOM= Mia Under 36.5

[Mr. IWS]

Keslo 200 unit plays

NFL FOOTBALL

NFL Game Of The Year
200 Units
Tennessee Titans (-9) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Prediction: Tennessee by 35
Starting Time: 1:00

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel
20* seattle
10*buffalo , minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Big Tom Cavinder NFC GOY
CHI

[Mr. IWS]

Sunday Selections/Bob Balfe

OAKLAND RAIDERS

[Mr. IWS]

JB Sports

CAROLINA PANTHERS

[Mr. IWS]

ATSLOCKS.COM

All paid picks:

San Diego @ Buffalo Under 45 (15 units)
Pittsburgh -9 (5 units)
New Orleans +3 (5 units)
Buffalo PK or -1 (5 units)

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
6 units Pittsburgh -9.5
5 units Washington -7.5
4 units Saints +3

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet406 KAN / 405 TEN Over 35.0 BetUS
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:00pm ET / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NY GIANTS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:00pm ET / PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:00pm ET / New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

4:15pm ET / New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

BEST BET write-ups:

CHIEFS / TITANS: In Poker terms, I would classify this game as 7-card stud ?HIGH / LOW?. You have an undefeated team (HIGH) coming in with the 5-0 Titans. And a 1-4 home team (LOW) in the Chiefs. This game also has one of the lowest OU lines of the week (around 35 points). With BOTH teams coming in with a week of rest, we?ll be slamming the OVER. Reason #1 is BECAUSE of that ?double-rest? angle. In the last 7 years, NFL games have gone 12-4 O/U when BOTH teams come in off thier BYE week. Home DOGS have gone 5-1 O/U... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last 3 seasons. That week of rest came at the right time for the Chiefs. In their last game, they lost to the Carolina Panthers by a score of 34-0. The shutout loss has them active this week in a very hot current System: NFL teams are a PERFECT 7-0-1 O/U in the last 4 years off a SHUTOUT in which they lost by a score of 28-0 or higher. On the flip side, we have the 5-0 Titans. And if it?s game six, the OVER is the call for these UNDEFEATEDS. Since 2000, GAME SIX teams with a perfect 5-0 SU record are 11-2 O/U... and a PERFECT 10-0 O/U vs any non-div opp. Not only are they 5-0 SU, but they?ve reeled off 5 straight ATS wins as well to start the season. In the last 20 years, OCTOBER non-div road favs who are off 5 SUATS wins in a row are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. Individual team trends seal the deal: The TITANS are 12-3 O/U as favs w/ rest, 5-0 O/U as non-div RF?s 4 > pts and 7-1 O/U bef Monday. CHIEFS are 4-0 O/U at home w/ rest, 5-1 O/U off a SU L 21 > pts, and 6-0 O/U in Gm 6.

GIANTS / 49ERS: The Giants return home off their shocking Monday night road favorite loss to the Brownies. Teams that lost their first game of the season on the road usually come back with high-scoring results. 9-1 O/U for GAME SIX teams who lost their FIRST game of the year on the road (GIANTS). NFC teams on a short week of practice off a Monday non-conf road game have been solid OVER plays in the last few years. 4-0 O/U in the last 4 years for all NFC teams off a Monday night game against an AFC opponent. Meanwhile, we have the Niners making the l-o-n-g trek east from their Bay area home... and you know what THAT means. TIME ZONE System. This System has continued to generate a profit this year, so let?s do it again: NFL Western time zone teams have gone 21-7 O/U in the last 4 years in Game 7 or less on the road versus an Eastern time zone team. The absolute BEST situations for these teams are 20-5 O/U for all UNDERDOGS... and 9-1 O/U for big dogs of > 7 points (like the NINERS). After winning 2 of their first 3 games, the wheels have come off for San Francisco. They?ve dropped 3 games in a row (SU and ATS) by 9 or more points. That?s actually a good sign for OVER players. 9-1 O/U since 200 for OCTOBER road teams who are playing off 3+ SU and ATS losses in a row. Most applicable team trends also indicate we?re on the right side. The NINERS are 10-1 O/U vs NFC East, 5-1 O/U vs an opp off Monday, and 5-1 O/U off BB HG. The GIANTS are 4-1 O/U off a Monday game and 4-0 O/U as non-div HF?s of 5 > pts.

[Mr. IWS]

Triple Threat Sports 777

KC Chiefs +9

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers free play:

Sunday, October 19
Baltimore @ Miami
Recommendation: Take the Dolphins -2.5

Joe Flacco has a long way to go before he can be considered the type of NFL quarterback who is capable of winning games for his team on the road. Flacco got off to a solid start this year in a pair of home games against lesser defenses, where the Ravens running game was strong enough to carry the offense. But once the competition stiffened, Flacco’s numbers and the Ravens results have suffered. During Baltimore’s current three game losing streak, Flacco has taken nine sacks, thrown five interceptions and fumbled four times.

The Ravens offensive line is a banged up, battered and bruised unit right now. Guard Marshall Yanda was placed on IR this week. Tackle Adam Terry is not likely to suit up on Sunday for the second straight week. And the tackle on the other side, Jared Gaither, has been limited in practice all week with a neck problem. With leading rushers Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee banged up as well, it’s looks like Flacco is expected to lead the attack for Baltimore here, behind a suspect offensive line against a quality Dolphins defense. I expect Flacco and his supporting cast to struggle.

The Dolphins have upset New England 38-15 and San Diego 17-10 over the course of their last three games. First year head coach Tony Sparano has proven to be a breath of fresh air for a team that won only one game last year, with his non-conventional offensive approach. Unlike Baltimore, Miami is not struggling to score points these days, hanging 28 on Houston last week, as Chad Pennington threw for 284 yards while Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams moved the chains steadily on the ground all afternoon. Miami is the better team here, making the Dolphins worth a strong look as long as this pointspread stays below a field goal.

Take the Dolphins.

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast Full Service Line
Pro Play Of Week Dallas, 4:00 Et Pro Play Cleve/ Wash Over
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

5 Unit Play. #126 Take Cleveland Browns over Washington Redskins (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Skins got burned last week laying a big number and yet again they are expect to cover around a touchdown spread against the Browns. Cleveland saved their season with a blowout victory on Monday and expect them to follow that up with another outstanding performance on Sunday. The Redskins are still leaning this new offensive system and while I like they can win this game, but will not be by a blowout. Cleveland has weapons with Braylon Edwards to stretch the field and this one will go down to the wire and only be decided by a field goal. Washington 21, Cleveland 20.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

VSE NFL Plays for Sunday are:

10* Take Baltimore (+3) over Miami (Power Play)
1:00 PM EST (AFC Power Play of the Year)

Miami
• 0-7 ATS coming off a loss by 6 points or less
• 3-10 ATS in home games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
• 1-4 SU vs. AFC North Opponents over the last 5 games
• Averaging only 15 ppg on offense at home this season

[Mr. IWS]

SEABASS

300 TEN
100 HOU
100 NYG
100 GB
100 CAR/NO OVER
20 Tease BAL/MIA Under & SD/BUF Over

[Mr. IWS]

North Coast Executive Plays

*3' NYG -10'
*3 TEN -9
*3 IND -1

Top Opinions
TB -10
BUF -1
DAL -7
HOU -9'

Totals
CLE/WASH over 42
BAL/MIA under 36'

Phil Steele Plays
*4 NYG -10'
*3 BUF -1
*3 HOU -10'

Dog of the Day
MIN

Sunday Night Marquee
TB-10'

[Mr. IWS]

NSA
NFL 20* Baltimore +3
NFL 10* Cleveland +7.5
NFL 10* Tennessee -9
NFL 10* NY Giants -10.5
NFL 10* San Diego +1
NFL 10* Green Bay +1.5
MLB 10* Boston -130

[Mr. IWS]

ASA NFL

Pro Football Picks
10/19/2008
12:00:00 PM BUFFALO BILLS (-1)
over San Diego Chargers
ASA 4-Star # 408 @Buffalo Bills (-1) over San Diego Chargers - 12:00 pm CST

We simply couldn’t ask for a better spot to grab Buffalo and fade the Chargers. The 4-1 Bills have had two full weeks to get ready for this AFC clash. Buffalo is also coming off their first loss in Arizona two weeks ago, thus this is a very important game at home for them to get back in the winning column. They are fresh, rested and ready to go. San Diego, on the other hand, will be “jet-lagged” again for the third time in four weeks. The Chargers stretch has been brutal. They started this string of games @ Oakland, then traveled cross-country to Miami, they were home last week in a HUGE revenge game vs. New England and now they are off to the east again to visit Buffalo. Now that’s a tough stretch of games! Not only that, this San Diego team heads across the ocean to London to play New Orleans next week which has to be a distraction. As we mentioned, this will be San Diego’s second trip to the east coast in three weeks after jetting to Miami and losing 17-10 two weeks ago. It’s ALWAYS tough for teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast to play the 1:00 PM Eastern game. One has to remember, it’s really “10:00 AM” on their body clocks. Not only that, getting up at 7:00 AM EST to start their preparation for the game is really like getting up at 4:00 AM Pacific time. Teams simply struggle in that situation. In fact, West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time zone to play an early game are 0-6 straight up (1-5 ATS) this year. Going back even further, the last 65 times a team from the west coast (this includes San Diego, Oakland, Seattle, Arizona & San Francisco) has traveled to the eastern time zone to play a 1:00 PM game, they are just 15-50 straight up! It’s definitely not an ideal situation, especially here with the Chargers having to do it in two of the last three weeks. After that this team is off to London to play the Saints. That’s right, England! What a tough way to end an enormously hard stretch of road games. So far Norv Turner’s team is just 1-2 SU on the road. They lost at Denver and at Miami. Their only win came in Oakland and that performance was nothing to write home about. They trailed 15-0 at halftime in that game and rallied for a deceiving 28-18 which included a half point cover. The Charger offense had just 295 total yards in that game and 41 of those came on a LaDanian Tomlinson TD run while he was attempting to run out the clock with just 1:00 remaining in the game. This offense that many so called experts proclaim among the best in the league had just 202 total yards @ Miami in their loss a week later. Those in the “know” around the NFL have said LT is not the runner he was a year ago. He is not nearly as explosive this year. WR Chris Chambers has a bad hamstring which will limit him or keep him out here. That puts a pile of pressure on QB Philip Rivers to carry most of the load which is tough on the road vs. quality opponents. They can’t expect their defense to “keep them in games” as they rank near the bottom of the NFL in overall defense along with pass defense. The Bills get QB Trent Edwards back from a concussion after he was knocked out of the Arizona game early. Edwards has had a very solid year completing almost 67% of his passes. He has a solid rushing attack behind him with Marshawn Lynch who has tallied 330 yards on the season. Buffalo also has solid special teams play and their defense is ranked #9 in the NFL in yards allowed and #8 vs. the pass. This all adds up, along with the scheduling situation, to a great pick with Buffalo at home in an even game. Bills win this one vs. a road weary Charger team.


10/19/2008
3:05:00 PM HOUSTON TEXANS(-9)
over Detroit Lions

ASA 7-STAR NFL Game of the Year - #422 Houston Texans (-9) over Detroit Lions Sunday, Oct 19th 3:00 pm CST

The Houston Texans have started the season 1-4, but they may be one of the top 10 teams in the NFL. They started the season with three road games, @Pittsburgh, @Tennessee, and @Jacksonville, teams with a combined 12-4 record after week 6. The Texans quietly have had one of the best offenses in the NFL this season, ranking 5th in total offense (362 yards per game), and 7th in passing yards (248 yards per game). Houston won a big game last week in the final seconds vs. Miami and we see them continuing to build momentum into this week, and getting a big win against the cellar dwelling Detroit Lions is just what the doctor ordered. The Lions nightmare season continues, leading by one point with less than a minute left in the game, the Lions committed a pass interference penalty against the Vikings, and Minnesota kicked the game-winning 26 yard field goal with 9 seconds on the clock. That loss puts the Lions at 0-5 for the year, ranking last, or close to last, in every offensive and defensive category. Detroit hasn’t had consistent quarterback play all year long despite having two of the most talented receivers in Roy Williams (who now is in Dallas with the Cowboys) and Calvin Johnson; they also have had little production running the ball to compliment their passing woes. The Texans’ are hoping that quarterback Matt Shaub has finally turned the corner from being an average quarterback, to being on of the NFL’s premier passers. In his last two games Shaub threw for 307 yards and 379 yards, with 4 touchdowns. The Lions are giving up an average of 31.8 point per game second to last in the NFL having allowed 31+ points in every game but one. Now Detroit is facing a Houston team that is 5th in the league in total offense and coming off three straight games of scoring 27, 27 and 29 points. The Lions are just 2-11 ATS their last 13 away and they struggle again this Sunday. Look for Houston, who is coming off their first win, to build off that this week when Detroit comes to town. Houston 38- Detroit 10.


10/19/2008
3:15:00 PM UNDER 41,OAKLAND RAIDERS
-vs-New York Jets
ASA 3-Star Under the total, #423 NY Jets vs. #424 Oakland, 3:15 PM CST

Two pedestrian offenses vs. two fairly solid defenses add up to an under play in this game. While the Jets overall scoring numbers look impressive at 28 PPG, they are very deceiving. That’s because they put up 56 points a few weeks ago vs. Arizona who was a turnover machine on that day. The Cards gave the ball away SEVEN times in that game allowing New York to light up the scoreboard. The Jets only had 383 yards in that game which means they put up one point for every 6.8 yards which is a ridiculous rate of return. Last week they put up 26 points on Cincinnati, however the Jets only had 252 total yards in that game. This team averages just 296 yards per game on offense which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. However, they are 6th in points scored in the league which means they are doing it with smoke and mirrors. This is the game where they come back to earth and their points are more in line with their yardage gained. The Raiders offense is one slot down from the Jets at #24 in the league (293 YPG). Their 16 PPG average is much more in line with a team that averages less than 300 YPG. Oakland has topped 20 points just twice in six games and they are coming off a game where they scored just one field goal against a New Orleans defense that was near the bottom of the NFL in many categories. QB Jamarcus Russell had completed just 50% of his passes on the year so Oakland has had to rely on their running game. Their rushing attack is 4th in the NFL and keeping it on the ground obviously eats up clock. Expect more of the same on Sunday. Both defenses are solid. The Jets give up just 306 YPG so don’t expect a pedestrian Oakland offense to do much in this game. They allowed just 14 points last week vs. Cincy and 7 of those came on a fumble returned for a TD. The Raiders defensive numbers don’t look great, but they are a solid stop unit. The problem is they faced off against two of the top offenses in the NFL their last two games (San Diego & New Orleans). They will have a much easier time slowing down the Jets here. We’ll call for this one to stay well under this posted number.

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
419 SFX 11.0 (-110) Bodog vs 420 NYG
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **



Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
408 BUF 0.0 (-110) Bodog vs 407 SDC
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **



Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
418 CAR -2.5 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 417 NOS
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
(Buy the 1/2 to -2.5)





Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Single-Dime Bet
412 MIA / 411 BAL Over 36.5 BetUS
Analysis:
* 1* TOTAL *


Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Money Line Double-Dime Bet
411 BAL (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 412 MIA
Analysis:
** 2* TEASER BET **



RAVENS +10 & VIKINGS +10 (2*) Teaser...



BONUS NASCAR SUNDAY :



1.) DENNY HAMLIN +800 (1*)



2.) JEFF BURTON +1700 (1*)

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

Saints / Panthers Over

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky Sund@y
4* Miami -3 released wed
4* houst/det Under 47 released tuesday
4* sf/nyg Under 46.5 released sunday
4* Minny +3 released sunday

3* dallas/wash teaser released saturday

[Mr. IWS]

Feist goy

houston