10-20-08

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (4-5)







5* Best Bet New England over Denver by 14

Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up,wouldn't you say?

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock

Denver + 3 ....3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Kelsso Monday
Patriots -3

[Mr. IWS]

Nsa

20* Den

10* Den / Ne Under

[Mr. IWS]

frank patron
10,000 unit mnf lock #6 in a row
denver broncos +3

[Mr. IWS]

Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 48.5 (-110)



With it being tough to pick a victorious side in this match-up, we look to the total, and we already see the typical MNF Over betting pattern of the "public" at work, with the totals line rising and now at 48.5, a half point over the key totals # of 48. While we recognize that Denver (and their "hot" QB Jay Cutler) has posted some pretty impressive offensive #s earlier in the season, while their defense has been pretty generous (ranked #30 in NFL), and that's what's probably the basis for some of the "over money" on this game, we don't believe that's enough justification to bet that there will be > 48 total points scored tonight. And the fact that much of that over money is also coming from casual bettors who plan to watch the game and want their "action" on it to be on the over (because they like to see lots of scoring) obviously does not give an over play on this game any credibility, either.

While we acknowledge that NE has been an "in and out" team so far TY and has been much more difficult to handicap, both ATS and totals-wise, than was LY's high scoring group of offensive playmakers aka the "Brady bunch," we need to recognize that Pats' only high scoring effort TY was against the SF Niners, whose "matador" defense and TO prone QB have given up an average of 32 points in their last 4 games. Other than that, the Pats offense has done very little, certainly not enough to justify this high totals line.

Getting back to Denver, while we acknowledge that they have been a road over lately (6-3-1 over in last 10 roadies, covering LY and their two road games TY, both overs), we need to look at what Broncos have been doing lately as well, and that has not been engaging in high scoring "shoot outs" -- far from it, as they have gone under in their last two, with 41 points scored LW vs Jags and a scant 29 in their 16-13 win over Tampa Bay the week before. And it's not like Denver is a low scoring team at home, already having had two home shootouts TY (one for 77 points vs SD and one for 66 vs NO). But before we continue, just a word about that Jags-Denver game LW, which produced our biggest NFL payday of the year (7-0 for + 19 units with all of our official and unofficial picks for that game) -- not only "official" wins on Jags, both ATS and money line, as well as on on the full game under, but also "unofficial" wins on the following plays recommended as part of our Jags/under betting attack strategy contained in our pick write ups -- the first half under, Denver under on indiv team totals line, and both a Jags to under teaser and parlay, with our betting attack strategy for that game producing a "perfect storm" of plays which collectively went 7-0 fpr +19 units (and we invite you to go to Nite Owl's page on this site to verify that by reading our write-ups for those victorious picks). Our point here (in addition to a bit of self-promotion) is that Denver is by no means an "automatic over," like they were perceived by most to be just three weeks ago. There are two primary reasons for this --

1. their opponents realize that the best way to beat Denver is with a ball control offense that both "eats" time off the clock and limits Denver's offensive possessions (which is precisely what both Tampa and Jags did successfully, although Tampa's offense let them down, scoring only 13 in that 16-13 loss), a strategy which leads to shorter games and less scoring, and thus unders. NE's Bill Belichek, being a smart coach, is fully aware of this, even w/o his "spy cam," and will undoubtedly integrate this type of strategy into his offensive game plan.

2. A major component of Denver's high-powered offense, its receiving corps, has been hit with a rash of injuries lately, with the following key skill players officially listed as "questionable" for this game (and even if they do play, how much will their effectiveness be limited by their injuries?)-- WR Royal (ankle), who already has 30 catches TY, and TE Scheffler (groin), neither of whom played LW, and WR Stokely, who left LW's game with a concussion after a hard hit. So with many of their "guns" either on the sideline or not fully "loaded," we're not really expecting a "shootout" type performance even from the Denver offense. With that being the case, Denver's defense knows they have to "step it up" to keep their team in this game.

So based on the foregoing, we believe the best line value in this game in with the under at the current line of 48.5, which we recommend for 3 units. But it doesn't stop there, as we will have a full betting attack strategy for this game when we update our write up later today, for our subscribers. And this pick, updated with that full betting attack strategy containing at least five plays for 10> units, can be yours by purchasing our one day NFL pass, priced at just $25 for today.

One final note, primarliy a reminder for our subscribers, is that if you took our advice yesterday and teased Tampa Bay (a victory on the teased line of -3.5 or -4) last night with the under for this game, you already have a play on the under in this game at a totals line of 55 or 55.5, so you may not want to add to your "under exposure" with another play on the under at 48.5.

[Mr. IWS]

IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: New England Patriots -3 (-110) (Play of the Day)

[Mr. IWS]

rob Crowne
2* Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units!
NHL
Colorado @ Los Angeles 10:35 PM EST
Play On: 3* Colorado -125
Los Angeles is 12-40 last 3 years after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific. Avalanche are 13-5 in their last 18 games following a win. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 15-43 in their last 58 games following a win. Kings are 1-5 in their last 6 Monday games. Kings are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. Northwest. We'll play Colorado for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky


NFL Opinion only: New England

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NHL Total
double-dime bet58 LOS / 57 COL Under 6.0 Bodog
Analysis: UNDER 6 goals in Los Angeles ? Under new coach Terry Murray, the Kings have been phenomenal on the penalty kill this season. They have not allowed a power play goal this entire season as they have killed off all 19 chances through the first four games of this season! Offensively, the Kings have scored just four power play goals this season and three of those came against Anaheim. Los Angeles beat the Ducks 6-3 in that game because Anaheim, as usual, decided to get ?penalty-happy?. The Ducks continued their trend from last season as being one of the most penalized teams in the league. The Kings took advantage and won that game in a rout. However, take a look at the Kings other two games for a ?true look? into what their offense is doing this season. Los Angeles managed a total of just one goal in their first two games this season. Then, in their most recent game, the Kings were actually down 3-1 with about 22 minutes to go in the game before rallying for two goals to send the game into overtime where they won 4-3. As you can see, the Kings tendency has been to rely on their defense and penalty killing (when needed) and so tonight?s total (at a 6) is offering some significant line value for a play on the under! The Kings offense, coupled with the fact that they?ve allowed just ten goals in four games this season, just does not justify this high of a total. Certainly the visiting Avalanche have more of a deserved reputation for playing more ?open ice? higher-scoring games but the Kings, at home, should be able to dictate the tempo in this one. Also, while it is true that the Avalanche have allowed a lot of goals this season, they have shown the ability to play ?cleaner? on defense too as they held the Oilers to just three goals in a tight 3-2 loss at Edmonton eight days ago. Also, this past week the Avs did a good job in holding a ?backs to the wall? Flyers club to just two goals in a big home win for Colorado. The point is that if the Kings lull the Avs into a low-scoring, grind-it-out type game we should not be surprised here. Couple that with a huge total posted on this game and the play here is clearly the U-N-D-E-R!

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S 5* DENVER VS. NEW ENGLAND WINNER!
Pick # 1 Denver Broncos (3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | NFL Total
triple-dime bet432 NEP / 431 DEN Under 49.0 SportBet
Analysis: The Patriots have little chance to win a shootout against the Broncos, so look for them to stay conservative on offense like they did in their first two wins of the season against the Chiefs and Jets. This is the highest posted total for a New England game since the Super Bowl, and we all know how that turned out with Tom Brady on the field. With Matt Cassel continuing to lead the Patriots offense, I expect them rely on the running game and short passes to move the ball and control the clock. I also think New England head coach Bill Belichick will figure out a way to hold Denver QB Jay Cutler in check. The Broncos have seen their last two games go UNDER by a combined 25 points, and their last three meetings with the Pats have all totaled 48 points or less. Bet the UNDER to cash again here as my Triple Dime MNF AFC Total Play O' the Year

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet432 NEP -3.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 431 DEN
Analysis:
Patriots -3

Analysis: Don't get put off by what you saw Sunday night when the Chargers destroyed the Patriots.

The Chargers' drubbing actually works in New England's favor because it keeps the spread down for this matchup.

The Patriots aren't a serious Super Bowl contender minus Tom Brady. But they are much better than what they showed Sunday night. They still are a legitimate division contender with the potential to win a playoff game or two.

Bill Belichick is that good of a coach. Look for him to have the right defensive game plan to confuse young Jay Cutler, who probably will be missing some of his skill position weapons.

The Broncos are weak defensively. Their interior is small and their safeties slow and weak in coverage. Denver only has covered two of its past 10 road games.

The Patriots' running attack is solid enough to take advantage and Matt Cassel has good targets with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and a healthy tight end Ben Watson to put up the needed points against such a weak defense.

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NFL Side
double-dime bet432 NEP -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 431 DEN
Analysis: 8:35pm ET / Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
2** Play on: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Despite the fact that our weekend TOTALS PLAYS went 6-1 overall, we'll pass on the Over / Under in tonight's Broncos-Patriots game. But if you DO decide to play an Over / Under tonight, don't forget that all MONDAY games are already a PERFECT 7-0 O/U so far this season. That's not a recommendation, it's just a fact.

I much prefer some of the great ATS Systems in regards to tonight's SIDE PLAY.

MONDAY night non-div home favs of -5 < points (PATRIOTS) are 20-6 ATS since 1999 when taking on an opponent off a SUATS loss (broncos).... and 17-5 ATS versus and .500 > opponent.

Denver comes into tonight's game on an ATS tailspin as they have dropped FOUR games in a row against the spread.
NFL road teams with a .666 > winning percentage are 5-17 ATS since 2000 when playing off 3 or more straight ATS losses (broncos)... and 1-7 ATS in the last 3 years.

Let's expand our query by one more game:
0-6 ATS since 2000 for ALL road teams off 4 straight ATS losses in which they were favored by -3 or more points in ALL four games (broncos).

After scoring ton of points to start the season, the offense has dried up for Denver in their last 3 games... as they have scored only 19, 16, and 17 points.
0-5 ATS since 1992 for ALL NFL teams who scored 30+ points in 3 straight games... and then 20 < points in their last 3 games (broncos).

The Pats are glad to return home after struggling to put up points last week against the Chargers on Sunday night.
8-1 ATS in the last 4 years: NFL home teams who scored 13 < points last week... 30+ points in the game before that... and 13 < points in the game before that (PATRIOTS).

NEW ENGLAND is a great team to play 'ON: after they shit the bed on offense. The Patriots are 10-2-1 ATS since 2000 after scoring 10 or less points in a game... and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS since 2003.

One would think that when Denver is off a home FAVORITE loss, that they are a great "play ON". That's not the case.
DENVER is a PERFECT 0-4 ATS in the last 3 years when playing off a SU home FAVORITE loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NFL Football Power Play for Monday is:

10* Take New England (-3) over Denver (NFL Power Play)
8:30 PM EST

Denver
• 1-14 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
• 2-8 ATS coming off an upset loss as a favorite
• 5-15 ATS when playing in the 1st half of the season
• 4-14 ATS coming off a home game the last 3 seasons

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

50* Denver
20* Boston Bruins

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio | NFL Side
double-dime bet432 NEP -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 431 DEN
Analysis:

Play on New England at 8:30 ET. Denver allegedly has New England?s ?number? having won 5 of the last 8 series meetings (since 2000) and covering 9 of the previous 12, but this is a banged up team at the skill positions. This is New England?s first home game in 30 days and maybe the Pats needed the break. They have failed to cover five straight here at Gillette Stadium. Thus, they are due. Denver is a terrible pointspread team, having failed to cash in their last five games and they are just 1-6 ATS their last seven as road dogs. Those injuries at the skill positions negate what edge the Broncos could have had here. They are 0-6 ATS vs. teams that allow 64% passing attempts or more to be completed per game anyways. New England bounces back just like they always do. New England is our NFL Oddsmakers Mismatch.

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Boston Bruins (NHL) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -121 Boston Bruins Play Title: Bruins
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Boston (NHL) – Supporting this graded play are a series of strong angles. Boston is 14-5 against the money line (+12.0 Units) against penalty prone teams averaging >=4.7 power plays/game over the last 2 seasons; 18-9 against the money line (+11.3 Units) against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opposition over the last 3 seasons; 7-9 against the money line (+9.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh in a weak role for a road win tonight noting they are 5-14 against the money line (-11.9 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Bruins Savard and Ryder are off to great starts scoring 5 and 4 goals respectively in just 4 games. Boston had struggled on defense for the first three games, but they held Ottawa to just 2 goals Saturday. I expect that momentum to carry over into this game. Crosby finally go going offensively with a line change, but Boston will be able to contain him and minimize shots on goal. Take Boston

[Mr. IWS]

Eddie Roman
50,000 Unit Monday Night Lock

50,000 UNIT MONDAY NIGHT
BREAK THE BANK
GAME OF MY CAREER
Denver +3 over New England

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

50* Denver
20* Boston Bruins

[Mr. IWS]

NC
2* New Eng
Top Op. OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NFL Football

Denver/New England Under 48.5
This will be the first real cold weathered game for either team this season. Both teams have some issues with their running backs and I do not think either team will be able to balance the run and pass enough to get their offense going full throttle. New England has a very experienced defense that should play well under the Monday Night Lights. Denver has a great secondary and I do not see Matt Cassell lighting up the scoreboard all night. When it comes to field goals it might be tough for the kickers when they kick a hard ball. Take the Under.

[Mr. IWS]

Iceman: 4* Boston

[Mr. IWS]

Players of America



Yesterday's Results (1-0, +10 units)

CLE vs. WAS
Sport: NFL
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Redskins
The Play: Cleveland Browns 8.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Result: Win



Today's Selections

DEN vs. NE
Sport: NFL
Game: Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
The Play: Denver Broncos +3.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A

[Mr. IWS]

Feist

(51) PIT Penguins
(52) BOS Bruins
Take "(51) PIT Penguins"
The Boston Bruins have opened the season with a 2-1-1 record and five points. The Bruins have the second worst penalty killing unit thus far coming in at just 70.6%. The Penguins are 3-2-1 this year with seven points. The Bruins play their first home game of the season, coming off a 4-2 win at Ottawa on Saturday. Marc Savard leads the team with five goals, four assists and nine points. The win over Ottawa was the team's best performance of the season. .5?All around, we had a solid game,.5? defenseman Dennis Wideman said. .5?Whenever someone made a mistake, someone else was always right there to back him up. As a team. I thought we stuck to our game plan and played really well..5? Manny Fernandez and Tim Thomas have split the first four games between the pipes with both putting up similar numbers. Fernandez has a 3.02 gaa while Thomas is 3.38. The Penguins are coming off a win at home against Toronto on Saturday night, 4-1. Evgeni Malkin leads the team with two goals and eight assists for 10 points. Center Sidney Crosby, arguably the best player in the league, is second with eight points. Crosby is seeing much more ice time this season, about 23:54 per game, about four minutes more than any of his previous seasons. "Just as long as you keep shifts short, not anything crazy," he said. "Sometimes, you get caught out there for a really long shift, and it can affect your next one or maybe the one after. But just consistently keeping shifts pretty normal length. I'd say that's about it," Crosby said about his extended time. Marc-Andre Fluery has played every game in goal and has a nice 2.42 gaa in six games. Anytime we can get the Penguins as a dog you have good value and we'll take it today on the road at Boston.

[Mr. IWS]

Cokin

(53) DAL Stars
(54) NY Rangers
Take "(54) NY Rangers"
I had another strong football weekend, with my Revenge Game of the Year blowout on Northern Illinois the highlight. I'm already gearing up for next week's action, and I've got three powerhouse early plays available now at 1-888-389-7223!

Goaltending is the name of the game in the NHL, and right now that's a big problem for the Dallas Stars. They've got injury issues on defense with Zubov down and veteran netminder Turco is struggling. The Rangers are off to a sizzling start and have to rate a commanding edge based on the current form. Pretty good sized number, but one I feel is worth laying with the Rangers.

[Mr. IWS]

Oscarxena Sports



Dallas/NY Rangers Under 5 1/2 -1.31 (2.5 Unit Play)

Florida/Montreal Under 5 1/2 -1.09 (3.5 Unit Play)

Colorado -1.17 (3 Unit Play)

[Mr. IWS]

ProCappersNetwork:

Denver/New England 1ST Half Under 24 +1.05 (2 Unit Play)

Denver/New England Under 48 1/2 -1.06 (2 Unit Play)-Denver is making their first true trip back east tonight as so far this year they have only played on the road twice and that was at Oakland and then at Kansas City. In the trip to KC they shockingly lost and now face a further trip to Boston land where I am sure the folks will be riled up after the Red Sox went down yesterday. New England meanwhile has been toiling on the West Coast as they played San Francisco two weeks ago and then stayed on the coast to train for their meeting with San Diego that obviously did not help. They now return home with their tails dragging a little bit but remember that they rallied after the disappointing home loss to Miami and will be looking to stamp their home field advantage again here tonight. Although Denver's defense is pretty bad I am not sure that New England's offense can take full advantage of that situation here this evening. The Patriots offense is still deadly but Cassell is not able to take full advantage of it like Brady could and that has been evidenced by the amount of sacks that the Patriots have allowed thus far this year. Denver is hoping to have a couple of weapons back on offense in Scheffler and Stokley who are listed as questionable but either way I see both teams trying to control the clock this evening to keep their mediocre defenses on the sidelines. I will play the Under here and split it up between the first half and the full game.

Oscarxena Sports

[Mr. IWS]

nsa

10* pit
10* col/la over

[Mr. IWS]

RAYMOND'S 5* NHL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK
Pick # 1 Dallas Stars / New York Rangers Under 5.5 -140

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | NFL Side
double-dime bet432 NEP -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 431 DEN
Analysis: Stan is betting New England tonight. Stan notes that New England at home off of an embarrassing loss last week on National TV as well will have them ready to play tonight. New England should be able to score on the Denver defense. TAKE NEW ENGLAND as STAN'S AFC MONDAY NIGHT BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

1O units New England
3 units Denver/New England Under

[Mr. IWS]

BUDINS 25 DIME RELEASE

CALI-CARTEL

1st NFL release (4-1 with college

NEW ENGLAND -3

[Mr. IWS]

c Jordan (B Langs site)

500 Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Rocco Vincintore Guaranteed Selections
Date: Monday, October 20, 2008

5000* NHL POWER PLAY MONEY LINE WINNER
54 NY Rangers -150 7:05 EST

[Mr. IWS]

ATSLOCKS.COM

DEN @ NE: Under 49 (5 units)

[Mr. IWS]

LVTR

PATRIOTS -3

WRITE-UP

We are now 5-1 for Monday Night games and on course to break last year’s MNF record where we won them all but 3. For tonight, there seems to be an amazing amount of interest in this game. Basically it’s a coin toss when we bring it to paper. Good thing it’s played on the field and not on our computers as we may have found the angle on this one. As you know, if you have followed us for any length of time, we switch it up constantly. You need to. There is no one system that beats Vegas. If there was, we wouldn’t be doing this, and you wouldn’t be here as well and we’d all be in some remote island somewhere with a big drink in one hand and a cell phone in the other trying to figure out how to fly a new Bentley to our new tropical island. As we have said before, you can cap players, performances, trends, and many other options. The one we love best is when Vegas does the work for us and basically gives you the flags. Does it mean the right team wins? Hell no! But, if I’m picking a ship to stay on, I’ll take the one with the lights on and not the public boat that sinks week in and week out. Here’s the deal. The Patriots are struggling and we know that, you know that, ESPN knows it and so forth. Well, if we know it, you can guaran-damn-tee it Vegas knew long ago. Let’s get past all this service talk and fluff and get to the meat of it. You have a team who is no position to be the favorite tonight against a Denver team who is now 4-2. Patriots are playing with a young 2nd string qb, injuries out thee wazoo and players not stepping up. Public is all over Denver, yet this line just won’t budge and the Patriots remain the -3 favorite. What gives? Well, as we said, Vegas is doing the work for us here. Our public team is getting + points which is the old saying that Vegas is begging you to buy Denver. With a 3 line, they will gain more in juice if you buy hooks off or on to the key number 3. Looking closer, we see Denver has only covered one ATS line the whole season and that was in game 1. Patriots are doing what we call the checker board ATS wise which means win one, lose one, win one, lose one, win one, lose one….Let’s take a guess what happens the 7th time. Now you see it! Vegas has established a pattern with what normally is a public team but with all the doom and gloom, it’s actually become a public play to fade the Pats. Where does that get you? Exactly 3-3 ATS, minus the juice and Vegas made their take. So basically as we say, when in a coin toss game, we zone in on the small variables, but judging by Vegas ATS patterns with both teams, we may have found a huge variable. Let’s add in the Patriots defense was flat out embarrassed last week. Hey, no matter the quality of players, they are still a professional team and you don’t want to stick your hand out to a wounded dog backed in a corner. We fully expect an a1 effort tonight under the national lights. Funny thing about MNF, is no matter how bad your season, all eyes are on you so MNF can act as a redemption game. Denver pass defense is weak to say the least which should open up opportunities for the Pats, and you have to believe Moss is due to have a break out game and what better night to do it than on Monday Night. This is not a strong play, but we feel we have the right angle and we’ll back the small home fave with the Patriots.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock 10/20
3 units Denver +3

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens

5 Units New England Patriots -3.0

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Total Triple-Dime Bet
432 NEP / 431 DEN Over 48.5 BetUS
Analysis:
*** MNF 3* "PRIME-TIME" GAME of the WEEK ***





Free Bonus NHL for Tonight :



1.) BRUINS -125 ML (1*)



2.) UNDER 5.5 (-105) PIT/BOS (1*)





Mon, 10/20/08 - 8:35 PMvegas-runner | NFL Money Line Single-Dime Bet
432 NEP (-130) BetUS vs 431 DEN
Analysis:
* 1* TEASER BET * (Possible UPGRADE...Please Check Back Later)


NE PATRIOTS +4 & OVER 41.5 (1*) Teaser...

[Mr. IWS]

Stu's 100 Dime Winner #1(SF1)

Denver (48') at New England (-3) - 8:35 p.m. EST






NEW ENGLAND (-3) 100 Dimes






After a disastrous performance last Sunday night at San Diego, New England will bounce back and win and cover this game in easy fashion by at least two touchdowns. Everybody is counting Bill Belichick’s team down and out but nothing could be further from the truth. This coach knows how to get his team to respond and they will. Last month they were embarrassed at home by Miami, but the next time they hit the field, they got the job done at San Francisco. Now after the debacle against the Bolts, New England will take it out on this defensively-challenged Denver team that gives up almost 26 points and 395 yards per game. Denver comes into this game on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the road, 3-11 against teams with winning records and 1-4-1 in conference games. Belichick has given QB Matt Cassel a vote of confidence and I look for Cassel to have a solid game against a Pony defense that yields more than 255 yards per game through the air. This beleaguered secondary has just two interceptions on the season and the only one from a Denver defensive back came back in Week 2. Oh, and then there’s the Denver run defense that ranks a pitiful 26th in the league in stopping the run. New England hasn’t exactly been cranking out big yards on the ground this season, but they will get things going against this porous Denver stop unit, especially after Cassel connects with Randy Moss on a long gainer to open things up. The Denver offense is still banged up and has struggled in recent weeks as they haven’t played all that well since a Week 3 home win over New Orleans. They’ve dropped two of their last three games including one to lowly KC. That was another example of a Denver team just not playing that well on the road. While Denver (4-2 SU) is still very much in the thick of things in their watered down division, this is desperation time for New England (3-2) that can’t afford to fall further back of Buffalo in the division. New England is 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 games after a defeat as Belichick knows how to get his team ready after a loss. They’re also 18-5-1 ATS in the month of October, but other ATS numbers aren’t so good due to what is usually an inflated number in games involving New England. That is not the case tonight as this is a too low number and we’re getting great value. New England will bring its “A’’ game tonight against a Denver team that is 6-20 SU in its last 26 Monday night road games as the home team rolls big time in this easy win and cover.

[mbgans]

mbgans
pats -3