10-23-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (6-1 CFB run) (3-0 this week)

Larry "got back on track" in CFB when TCU crushed BYU 32-7 last Thursday. When Temple edged Ohio 14-10 (Tues), it left Larry 6-1 (85.7% ATS) with his CFB releases the L7 days. His first play of each CFB weekend is his Las Vegas Insider but for the first time in CFB '08, that exclusive release comes on a Thursday contest. Want in?


Air Force

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | NHL Total
double-dime bet8 MIN / 7 BUF Under 5.5 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on the Wild and Sabres to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both gotten off to terrific starts. That's been largely due to strong defensive play and excellent goaltending. Entering tonight's game, both teams are allowing an identical 1.7 goals per game. Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller enters tonight's game with a 1.45 goals-against average. Niklas Backstrom has been nearly as good, going 4-0 with a 1.72 GAA. Another area where the goalies have shined and another big reason for the success of these clubs has been the excellent play of their respective penalty-killing units. The Wild have yet to allow a power-play goal, successfully defending all 15 of their short-handed situations. Meanwhile, Buffalo has allowed just a single power-play goal in 29 chances.

We're paying some extra juice to get 5.5 here but I feel that price is justified. The Sabres have seen the UNDER go 78-39 the last 117 times they played a road game with an over/under line of 5.5, including a 16-8 mark the last couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Wild have seen the UNDER go 20-8 when playing a home game with a total of 5.5. During the same time period, the Wild have seen the UNDER go 17-8-5 when coming off three or more consecutive victories and 10-5-2 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last year's meeting did finish with six combined goals. However, the previous four meetings in this series averaged less than four goals each and they all produced five or less goals overall. The Wild are without several of last year's offensive stars and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang


10 Dime New Mexico
5 Dime West Virginia (Buy 1/2-point down if your book has 3, and be sure to get to only lay a field goal in this game.)

Free pick - Over Phils/Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (won Game 1)

Larry won both of his 10* plays in MLB's postseason, his Div Series GOY and his Champ Series GOY. He also won his lone 9* of the LCS, when Boston made its great comeback in Gm 5. He made it four HUGE postseason winners in a row last night, as he cashed with the Phillies, his Game One 9* play. Tonight, it's an exclusive MLB Insider in Gm 2. Want in?

TB Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Root tonite

Chairman- West Vagina
Millionaire- Phils/Rays Under

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
WORLD SERIES GAME 2

I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. I passed on yesterday's opener. I really didn't want to play against Cole Hamels but I also respected Kazmir and didn't want to play against the Rays in this park. Tonight's matchup is significantly more favorable for the Rays. Myers goes for the Phillies and he's been inconsistent enough that he was sent to the minors during the summer. To his credit, Myers has been much better since his stint to the minors. Still, he wasn't sharp his last time out, allowing five runs in five innings vs. the Dodgers. That was way back on 10/10 too, meaning that he's out of his normal routine. His last road start was more than a month ago (9/19 at Fla) and he allowed 10 runs in four innings. Including that debacle, he was just 3-8 with a 6.21 ERA on the road. Those type of disastrous outings rarely/never happen to Shields here in St. Petersburg. In fact, if we look at his last 20 starts here we find that he allowed three earned runs or less in 18 of them and that he didn't allow more than five earned runs in any of them. Overall, he was 9-2 with an outstanding 2.59 ERA and 1.04 WHIP here. The Rays know this is essentially a "must win" game as no team has rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win the World Series since the Yankees did so in 1996. They've been an extremely resilient team all season and I look for them to bounce back and even up the series. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on New Mexico and Air Force to finish UNDER the total. These teams both saw their most recent game finish above the total. Those results have helped keep this evening's over/under line generously high. Last week's results notwithstanding, both these defenses have been excellent in conference play. The Falcons are allowing 19.9 points overall and just 17.7 in conference play. In three home games, they're surrendering a mere 271.3 yards per game. While the Lobos are giving up 23.7 points per game overall, after limiting the Aztecs to just seven points last week, they're allowing an average of only 13.5 points (275 yards) in their conference games. Not surprisingly, three of those four games stayed below the total. Prior to last week's dominant performance, the Lobos held a powerful BYU team to only 21 after shutting out Wyoming the previous weeks. That means they are only allowing 9.3 points over their last three games. While the Lobos admittedly haven't had much time to prepare for Air Forces' unique attack, it should be noted that this defense is arguably the fastest in Long's tenure as coach here and that overall speed on the defensive side of the ball can compensate for an awful lot. A look at last year's meeting shows that the final was 34-31 in favor of the Lobos. However, that score was somewhat deceiving as New Mexico was given "easy points" when the Falcons turned the ball over five times inside their own 30-yard line. Meanwhile, Air Force got it's first touchdown after New Mexico fumbled on its own 14 yard line. A closer look shows that neither team racked up the type of yardage that you'd normally find with a game that produced 65 combined points. Air Force had only 322 total yards while New Mexico had just 325. Note that the previous meeting, which was here at Air Force in 2006, saw the teams manage just 273 and 281 total yards. The final score of 24-7 stayed well beneath the number. Looking at some over/under stats and we find that the UNDER is a perfect 3-0 the last three times that the Lobos were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. The UNDER is also 5-2 the past seven times that New Mexico played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 42.5 to 49. During the same stretch, the UNDER was 4-1 when Air Force had played a home game with a total in the same range. Look for this evening's final score to prove lower-scoring with the UNDER improving to 10-5 the last 15 times that the Falcons played a home game in October. *MWC TOY

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on West Virginia and Auburn to finish OVER the total. It's true that both these teams have played well defensively while struggling offensively. That's why most are expecting a defensive battle and why the over/under number is so low. West Virginia is averaging 22 points while Auburn has managed just 19. I believe that both teams are more than capable of putting up points though and that the low number is providing us with excellent value. The Mountaineers didn't have star QB Patrick White in the lineup in their last game (vs. Syracuse) and struggled to find the end zone. However, White played in the previous two games (although he was knocked out of each) and the Mountaineers scored 24 and 27 points. White will be back in the lineup here. Coach Stewart was quoted as saying: "Pat has done very well and he's performing well. He was running around last night and he was cheering them (teammates) on as only Pat can do. He said he liked it and said that was the way we should practice and play. It was very fun and he's ready and raring to go." While the team has struggled adjusting to the change in offensive philosophy, let's not forget that White led a Mountaineers' offense that averaged more than 40 points per game last season. It should also be noted that he has shown a tendency to shine when playing on national television. The Tigers struggled last game and were upset by Arkansas. They still scored 22 points though. The problem was that they allowed 25. The normally stout Auburn defense allowed the Razorbacks to compile a whopping 417 yards of total offense. This season's struggles notwithstanding, White and the Mountaineers bring a significantly more explosive offense to the table. In this evening's other game (New Mexico/AF) both teams are playing on short rest, having just played last Saturday. However, in this game, neither team has played since the previous Saturday, which was way back on October 11th. I expect the extra preparation time to benefit the offenses. Both coaches are under pressure to see their teams open up the playbook and score points. Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville is quickly falling out of favor and would love nothing more than to see his team put up some big numbers after he fired his offensive coordinator a couple of weeks ago. This will be the first time all season that sophomore Kodi Burns will be the Tigers' clear No. 1 quarterback (former coordinator Franklin favored Chris Todd) and I expect that to help his confidence and for him to have a solid game. Meanwhile, Bill Stewart has seen the fans boo the Mountaineers' offensive play calling. Therefore, it's no surprise that word coming out of the Mountaineers' camp this week suggests that the offense will be more open than it has been in the past. With White's healthy return, West Virginia is expected to throw the ball more often, especially down the field in an effort to loosen up the Tigers' run defense. While the Mountaineers have seen the OVER go 4-2 their last six games against teams from the SEC, the Tigers have seen the OVER go 3-0 their last three games against teams from the Big East. Both teams have also seen the OVER go 4-2 their last six Thursday games and I look for tonight's contest to also find its way above the low number. *non-conference TOM
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[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

AIR FORCE (-5.0) 24 New Mexico 23
05:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-23 - Stats Matchup
New Mexico took advantage of a depleted San Diego State defensive line and rolled up 419 yards on the ground at 6.7 yards per rushing play in a 70-7 win over the Aztecs. New Mexico is a pretty good team when they are able to run the ball a bit, as the Lobos have a few good running backs (they average 5.2 yprp for the season) and a solid defense that’s yielded 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Air Force defends the run pretty well (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), but the Lobos are forecasted to run for close to 200 yards at 4.8 yprp in this game. The match-up that works best for New Mexico in this game is their very good run defense (3.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) going up against an Air Force option offense that runs the ball 80% of the time. New Falcons’ quarterback Tim Jefferson has been a considerable improvement over former starter Shea Smith, as Jefferson has averaged 11.4 yards per pass play on 22 pass plays (against teams that would allow 8.0 yppp to an average QB) while running for 5.8 yprp on 32 rushing plays (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp). Smith threw the ball pretty well (7.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp), but he averaged only 3.8 yprp on 60 rushing plays (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp). However, my math model favors Air Force by only 2 ½ points in this game even after adjusting for Air Force having Jefferson at quarterback. New Mexico also has a long history of playing well in the second half of the season under coach Rocky Long, whose teams are just 22-31-1 ATS since 1999 in games 1 through 6, but 38-15 ATS in regular season games from game 7 on, including an incredible 27-5 ATS when favored by less than 3 points or getting points. I’ll lean with New Mexico plus the points and I’d consider the Lobos a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

drbob, strong opinion west virginia 4 or less

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

New Mexico
Auburn/W Virg Over