10-26-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Week 8 Las Vegas Insider (5-1)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts combined on yet another Las Vegas Insider win in Wk 7 as buf beat SD (now 5-1 or 83.3% ATS in NFL '08). Larry's NFL Insider is the 1st play he posts each week (Weds) after he and his longtime contacts "break down" the NFL 'card' on Tuesday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 8?


Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* Total of the Month (15-6 s/'03!)

Larry plays very few NFL totals but his Total of the Month plays have been 'MONEY' over the last five seaons. He is 15-6 (that's 71.4 percent!) with his NFL Total of the Month plays since the start of the '03 season. Looking for a game which could be 'over' by halftime? Then look no further than Larry's 20* NFL Total of the Month (Oct)! Look out below.

SD/NO OVER


Larry Ness' 20* NFC Game of the Year


Larry was "right on the money" with his 20* AFC/NFC Game of the Year in Wk 5, as the Pats (-3) beat the 49ers, 30-21. This 25-year vet now has his sights set on a Wk 8 game which he's designating as his 20* NFC Game of the Year. You can't afford to get "caught on the sidelines" for this one, as this "no-doubt, double-digit ATS winner" is just a click away!

Philadelphia Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL -- MORE TO COME


1* Tulsa

1* Pittsburgh Steelers

1* Cincinnati Bengals

1* Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

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Afc Shocker Of The Month Chiefs

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (ATS blowout!)

Larry has some "making up to do" after a poor Saturday but he had no problems winning his Weekend Wipeout Winner in CFB. Missouri (-24) beat Colordao, 58-0 and while you don't get blowouts like that too often in the NFL, Larry anticipates a "double-digit ATS win"with his NFL Week 8 Weekend Wipeout Winner. Any takers?


Carolina Panthers

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer

College Football Game of the Year

Tulsa

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NFC GAME OF WEEK

I'm taking the points with DETROIT. While they remain winless, the Lions have been involved in back to back close games, earning the cover in each. This afternoon, they'll face a Washington team that has been involved in a close game every single week of the season. The Redskins won by four points last week after losing by two (vs. winless St. Louis) the previous week. They've now seen ALL seven of their games decided by single digits. Those seven games were decided by an average of less than five points each. Considering their tendency to play down to the level of their opponents, it's not particularly surprising to find that the Skins are now a money-burning 1-10-1 ATS the last 12 times that they faced a team with a losing record. While the Lions have been a losing franchise for a long time now, they tend to perform well at home after an extended losing streak. In fact, they're 11-2 ATS the last 13 times they played at home off five or more consecutive losses. Other than running out of the end zone, Orlovsky didn't make many mistakes in his first start. He's got another game and week under his belt and has been in this offense for a few years now. He's got a big arm and was a winner in college. This is his chance, along with several other young Lions, to show that he belongs here and to make a name for himself. I don't believe that this team has quit yet and they'd desperately like to win a game for the home fans. The Redskins can say all the right things about not looking past the Lions but that's easier said than done, as they've got a big Monday night home game on deck and will be over-confident from having blown out the Lions last season. Look for that loss to provide some added motivation for the Lions this week as they take another game down to the wire with a solid shot at earning their first victory. #1 NFC GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS
FALSE FAVORITE GOY

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Bills have been on quite the roll and they were more impressive than the Dolphins last week. That has caused Buffalo to be a slight road favorite here, which I feel is a mistake. Let's not forget that the Bills got crushed 41-17 in their last road game. Back in a hostile environment, I expect them to suffer their second loss this afternoon. It's true that the Dolphins didn't play particularly well last time out. They're a much improved team this season though and that was evident in their previous three games. The Dolphins were 3-0 ATS in those three games. They lost by one at Houston (and very nearly won) and they defeated San Diego after crushing the Patriots at Foxboro the previous week. While the Bills would really like to win, the Dolphins desperately NEED to win. As coach Tony Sparano had to say: "It's important for a lot of reasons. We need to win another home game. We need to win a game in our division. We don't want to fall behind these people. We're not conceding anything here. This is an important game, it really is, and I think our players understand that." While Edwards has been impressive at quarterback for the Bills, Pennington has also been excellent for the Dolphins. Of course, he's got a pair of excellent backs at his disposal. The Bills haven't seen the Wildcat formation and I expect them to have some trouble with it. While the Dolphins may be without Jason Ferguson, it should be noted that the Bills are dealing with numerous injuries on both sides of the ball. Reports from the Dolphins camp are that they are really fired up for this game and ready to go. Several players said Wednesday's practice was their best practice of the season. Left guard Justin Smiley had this to say: "You could just hear it. You could hear these pads. Those things popped today. People were hitting each other. It was a spirited practice...Today, everybody came and was hungry. It was a great practice. I was pretty pumped about that." Look for a determined effort from the Dolphins as they carry over the positive energy from practice and earn the victory, vaulting back into the AFC East race. *2008 False Fav GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Sunday's winners ....
20 Dime Chargers (buy the 1/2 point and only lay -3 points)

20 Dime Patriots (buy the 1/2 point and only lay -7 points)

20 Dime 6-point teaser Eagles/Redskins

10 Dime Buccaneers

5 Dime Bills



Free - Giants (for analysis see daily video.)

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NFL TOTAL OF WEEK

I'm playing on Arizona and Carolina to finish UNDER the total. It's true that the Cardinals' offense has really been clicking so far this season. However, they've still seen two of their three road games finish below the total and they haven't faced a defense this good yet all season. Carolina is allowing only 14.9 points per game, including a mere 8.2 at home. Not surprisingly, the Panthers have seen the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 in their four home games and 6-1 overall. They faced another potent offense last week and responded by holding the Saints to just seven points. They have now given up just 16 points in their past three games here. The Saints entered that game with the second best offense in the league and QB Brees was averaging a league-leading 332.2 yards passing. His passer rating was 105 and he had 12 touchdown passes in his first six games. He had 27 completions of 20 yards or more in those first seven games. Against Carolina, he had a QB rating of just 61, by far his lowest of the year. He finished with 231 yards and no touchdowns. More than half of those yards came in the fourth quarter, when the game was already out of reach. As mentioned, the Cardinals have seen two of three road games finish below the total. The score of the lone game (at NY Jets) that was high-scoring was somewhat deceiving though, as the Cardinals gave the Jets numerous opportunities on a short field by turning the ball over in their own territory. Forced to play "catch up," the score got out of hand. Their other two road games saw 36 points scored at San Francisco and 41 at Washington. These teams also faced each other last October. That game had an over/under line of 38.5. This afternoon's number is several points higher, providing us with excellent value. Note that last year's game still finished below the number, finishing with a final score of 25-10 in favor of Carolina. Following last year's game the Cardinals had a bye week. After the bye week, they scored just 10 points in a game which finished with a final score of 17-10. That's worth mentioning as the Cardinals also coming off a bye this week. Including last year's result, they've seen the UNDER go 2-0 the last two times they were coming off a bye and 11-5 the last 16. The Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 15 their last 20 home games. They've also seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times they were coming off a victory vs. a division opponent. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 31-12-2 their last 45 in that situation. Look for another big defensive effort as this game proves lower-scoring than most are expecting once again. *total of the week

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NFC GAME OF WEEK

I'm taking the points with DETROIT. While they remain winless, the Lions have been involved in back to back close games, earning the cover in each. This afternoon, they'll face a Washington team that has been involved in a close game every single week of the season. The Redskins won by four points last week after losing by two (vs. winless St. Louis) the previous week. They've now seen ALL seven of their games decided by single digits. Those seven games were decided by an average of less than five points each. Considering their tendency to play down to the level of their opponents, it's not particularly surprising to find that the Skins are now a money-burning 1-10-1 ATS the last 12 times that they faced a team with a losing record. While the Lions have been a losing franchise for a long time now, they tend to perform well at home after an extended losing streak. In fact, they're 11-2 ATS the last 13 times they played at home off five or more consecutive losses. Other than running out of the end zone, Orlovsky didn't make many mistakes in his first start. He's got another game and week under his belt and has been in this offense for a few years now. He's got a big arm and was a winner in college. This is his chance, along with several other young Lions, to show that he belongs here and to make a name for himself. I don't believe that this team has quit yet and they'd desperately like to win a game for the home fans. The Redskins can say all the right things about not looking past the Lions but that's easier said than done, as they've got a big Monday night home game on deck and will be over-confident from having blown out the Lions last season. Look for that loss to provide some added motivation for the Lions this week as they take another game down to the wire with a solid shot at earning their first victory. #1 NFC GOW

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Chairman - New Orleans
Millionaire - Det
Money Maker - Dallas
No Limit GOY - Miami
Insider Circle - Pitt
Billionaire - Ariz

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob Sports

Star Selection
NY JETS (-13.0) 28 Kansas City 7
26-Oct-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Kansas City is the worst team in the NFL with Tyler Thigpen back as the starting quarterback after starter Brodie Croyle and backup Damon Huard were both knocked out for the season last week. Thigpen got a few starts earlier this season and he has averaged a pathetic 3.5 yards on 95 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback). The Chiefs have averaged only 4.3 yards per play this season and scored 14 points or less in 5 of their 6 games and their offense is even worse with Thigpen at quarterback and with Larry Johnson suspended again this week, as I rate KC’s attack at 1.6 yppl worse than average (they are -1.2 yppl for the season). Kansas City’s median scoring output is 10 points and I don’t see them getting that many against a good Jets’ defense that has yielded just 4.9 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. New York gave up big points to explosive passing teams San Diego and Arizona, but they gave up 19 points or fewer in their other 4 games and allowed just 171 yards at 2.9 yppl to Cincinnati and their backup quarterback a couple of weeks ago. My math model projects just 176 yards at 3.0 yppl for Kansas City in this game. The Chiefs are also horrible on defense, as that unit has surrendered 6.5 yppl and 27.5 points per game this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and 21 points against an average defensive unit. The Jets are 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively this season, but Brett Favre and company should feast on the Kansas City’s horrible defense in this game. My math model projects 417 yards at 6.6 yppl for New York and favors the Jets by 24 ½ points. After losing last week in Oakland, the Jets should be focused for this game and there are no strong situations that favor the big underdog (usually there are). I’ll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.



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NFL Strong Opinions

NEW ENGLAND (-7.0) 26 St. Louis 14
26-Oct-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Rams are 2-0 under interim head coach Jim Haslett after starting the season 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS. Upset win over the Redskins and Cowboys does not make Haslett a miracle worker, as those wins were more good fortune than good football. The win over Washington was the result of 3 lost fumbles by a Redskins’ offense that had committed zero turnovers in their first 5 games and the Rams were out-played 3.8 yards per play to 6.0 yppl in that lucky win. Last week the Rams got a break with Tony Romo’s broken pinky, as Cowboys’ backup Brad Johnson threw 3 interceptions in a game in which the Rams were +4 in turnover margin. The Rams did out-gain Dallas 5.9 yppl to 5.8 yppl, but the Cowboys are a below average team without Romo and their best defensive back Pacman Jones, who is serving a suspension that started last week. New England is coming off a misleading 40-7 win over Denver on Monday night football, in which the Pats were +5 in turnover margin and facing a Denver offense with a banged up quarterback (Cutler was injured early in the game) that refused to stay out of the game despite not being able to perform to his normal standards. New England is below average on both sides of the football and my math model favors the Patriots by 7 ½ points in this game – so the line is about right. The reason for backing the Pats is a negative 40-96-3 ATS road letdown situation that applies to the Rams in this game and I’ll consider New England a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

Cincinnati (+9.5) 18 HOUSTON 21
26-Oct-08 01:05 PM Pacific Time
Cincinnati is 0-7 straight up, but their solid defense (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) is capable of keeping them competitive against a sub-par Houston team with a terrible defense that’s allowed 6.2 yppl and 30 points per game. The Texans have won two games in a row after starting 0-4, but they didn’t cover the spread in either one of those games and they allowed a pathetic Detroit team to cover against them last week despite opening up a 21-0 lead in that game. Houston actually applies to a very negative 4-28 ATS subset of a 68-141-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation while Cincinnati applies to a 51-15-2 ATS situation that plays on winless teams. Houston is also just 4-15 ATS following a home win, including their spread loss last week. The technical analysis gives Cincy a very profitable 58% chance of covering at a fair line, but the fair line on this game appears to be 10 points - the line opened at 10 ½ points and my math model favors Houston by 10.0 points with Carson Palmer still out. A game with a 58% chance of covering at a fair line of +10 has a far less profitable 55% chance of covering at +9 ½ points and 54% at +9. I will insist on getting +10 points with at least -1.15 odds or better to make this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +9 or +9 ½ points and I’ll take the Bengals in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points at -1.15 odds or better.

[Mr. IWS]

PPP-4%N.Y.Giants 4%Dallas