10-26-08

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Ferrall

NFL Free Picks SAN FRANCISCO -5 to Seattle--The Seahawks are 7-16-1 last 24 games on the road ATS. Seattle has hit the OVER in 4 of last 5 on road. OVER 41

CINCY +9 from Houston--I don't think the Texans can beat anyone by that number. Take the OVER 44.5--Houston over in all 6 games this year

WASHINGTON -7.5 to Detroit--The Lions don't cover against anybody. Detorit 1-5 last 6 ATS at Ford Field and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall ATS

CAROLINA -4 to Arizona--The Panthers have covered the last four meetings in series and are tough at home. Take the OVER 43.5--Cards are 11-4 in OVERS in last 15 games

BALTIMORE -7 to Oakland--You've got to jump on this one. The Ravens won't let the Raiders do anything offensively

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy Rider | NFL Side
triple-dime bet210 PHI -9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 209 ATL
Analysis:
*****5 UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR*****



When I give out a Game of the Year selection, it's always on a team I feel is in the best spot of any throughout the season. As I look over the remainder of the NFL schedule, I don't see a situation that will benefit a team more than the one the Philadelphia Eagles are in this Sunday.



First, let's start with coming off the bye week. Some coaches just know to prepare their team to play after a bye and no one does it any better than Andy Reid. The Eagles are a perfect 9-0 under Reid coming off a bye week. I also like to look at how a team goes into their bye and the Eagles are coming off a strong performance in San Fran. Also, I've been told by Eagles Insiders that even though the team is currently in last place in the NFC East, they believe with the Cowboys having problems and the Redskins still employing a young quarterback that they they are the best team in the division.



Another reason to like the Eagles here is because they are getting healthy at the right time. Brian Westbrook and WR Kevin Curtis will both be playing on Sunday, giving Donovan McNabb and the Eagles their top two offensive weapons on the field together for the first time all year. Also, receiver Reggie Brown is finally back to full strength as well, making this the first time McNabb has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal.



Finally, I think the Eagles have the perfect opponent coming off the bye week. The Falcons are a nice surprise but they are a team you bet at home and fade on the road. They did beat a depleted Packers team on the road but were handled easily by both the Bucs and Panthers. Matt Ryan's numbers are significantly worse away from home. Ryan has a 59.2 passer rating on the road compared with a 121.9 mark at home. And now defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has had an extra week to come up with a bevy of new blitz packages to throw at the rookie. Here is what safety Brian Dawkins had to say about this week's gameplan:



"We're not going to stop. You may get us every once in a while, but we're not going to stop, so you have to be able to maintain that same cool that you were on that one play that you got us on the other 20 blitzes that we throw at you."



I expect the Eagles defense to harass the young Ryan and force him into turning the ball over. Remember one thing: Asante Samuel, along with Champ Bailey, is the best CB in the NFL when it comes to jumping a route. I expect him to have a big game against Ryan.



Atlanta has been outgained in all 3 road games 373-291 with Ryan passing for 170 ypg (50%). They now face an Eagles defense that is 2nd in the NFL with 21 sacks & allowing just 91 (3.5) ypg rushing. In other words, the Falcons will be forced to pass and Philly is going to feed off that and eat Ryan alive.



So, those are the reasons why I made this my NFL Game of the Year. I expect something like a 37-6 Eagles win, so hopefully this one will be over early and you can all sit back and relax

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 26, 2008

5* Redskins at Lions: I'm not concerned with the Redskins not putting up a ton of points the last two weeks. There is nothing wrong with this offense. The Redskins (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) are playing great for new coach Jim Zorn. This is an uptempo West Coast attack and quarterback Jason Campbell has yet to throw a pick! They have outstanding balance with RB Clinton Portis (fourth straight 100-yard performances), plus WRs Santana Moss and Antawn Randle-El. They feature many three-and four-receiver sets and will tear up this terrible Detroit defense. The Lions (0-6 SU/2-4 ATS) may have covered the last two games, losing 12-10 to the Vikings and 28-21 at Houston, but don't be fooled. They were outgained by a wide margin to the conservative Vikings and allowed 404 yards, including 150 rushing, last week to struggling Houston. Houston held the ball for a franchise-record 40:04. This defense is awful, last in the NFL. The offense has turned to Dan Orvolsky (31 points total in his two starts) and recently traded away its best player, WR Roy Williams. The Lions have been outscored 54-0 in the opening quarter this season! Play the Redskins.

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NFL Side
triple-dime bet227 CIN 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 228 HOU
Analysis: 3*** UNDERDOG Game of the Month on: CINCINNATI BENGALS plus the points vs the houston texans / 4:15pm ET

Sharp players already know that DOUBLE-DIGIT underdogs have already CLEANED UP in the 2008 season. For the purposes of this game, we'll create a 2008 set for ALL underdogs of +9 or higher (since the line is going down a little). The numbers are just as GREAT... depending on the conditions.
12-3 ATS so far this season for all NFL road underdogs of +9 > points (CINCY). Bring in an opponent that's playing off 2 wins in a row (like Houston), and the results improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS.

The Bengals are one of only two WINLESS teams in the 2008 season (Detroit being the other). You might be 'holding your nose' when you make this play... but it's the right thing to do according to our database.
Since 1985, NFL teams that are WINLESS in GAME EIGHT or greater are a very impressive 43-16 ATS (73%). We can tighten these numbers considerably based on two different angles: DOUBLE-DIGIT winless dogs are 14-1 ATS (keep your eye on the line).... or 12-2 ATS if our winless team is off an ATS loss of 10 > pts (like CINCY), and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS if this team is taking on a < .500 opp (Houston).

All of us are aware that the Bengals got CREAMED at home last week against the Steelers (final score 38-10). Once again, you may not feel comfortable playing on such a team in your first impression... but these teams DO tend to bring home the bacon in their next game.
14-5 ATS last 3 years for teams off a SU home loss of 21 > pts (CINCY) vs any opponent off a SU win (Houston). And the numbers improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS vs < .500 opponents (like Houston).

Based on the Hurricane impact earlier in the season, the TEXANS find themselves in some unique scheduling situations. This week's game against the Bengals is their FOURTH straight home game. First, we'll do a query for 3 straight 'homies'... and then 4 straight.

6-20 ATS since 199 for all NFL favorites of > 7 points playing in their 3rd STRAIGHT home game... 4-18 ATS when playing off a SU win (Houston)... 2-13 ATS taking on an opponent off a SU loss (CINCY)... and a PERFECT 0-12 ATS as favs of > 7 and < 14 points. We also note that in this decade, NON-DIVISION teams are a PERFECT 0-4 ATS.

NFL teams playing in the 'ever-so-rare' FOURTH straight home game (Houston) are a PERFECT 0-3 ATS since 1990.

After starting the season losing each of their first four games, The TEXANS have won two games in a row... but FAILED to get the cash (as in ATS win) in either game.
2-10 AST since 1996 for all NFL favorites off BB SU home wins... but BB ATS losses (Houston). For a tightener, you can take your pick. Either situation is PERFECT: 0-6 ATS as favs of > 7 pts (Houston)... or 0-5 ATS vs any opponent off a double-digit SU loss (like CINCY).

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet228 HOU / 227 CIN Over 44.5 Bodog
Analysis:
Bengas-Texans Over 44.5

Analysis: The Houston Texans just may be the best 'over' team in the NFL with a potent offense and weak defense. This has resulted in the Texans going 'over' eight straight times, including all six games this season.

The 'over' has cashed 70 percent of the time during the past 17 instances in which the Texans played a team with a winning percentage of less than 33 percent.

The Texans are fifth in offense. They've scored at least 27 points in each of their past four games and should have no problem reaching that figure against a Bengals defense now missing one of their better players, linebacker Keith Rivers.

Andre Johnson has played better than any other wide receiver during the past two weeks and the Texans now have a solid 1-2 running punch with a healthy veteran Ahman Green joining good-looking rookie Steve Slaton.

Look for Bengals second-string quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to have his best game since replacing an injured Carson Palmer. He's had several starts and his more comfortable with his main wide receiving targets, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

Houston is yielding 29.8 points per game. Only the Lions are giving up more. The Bengals have the wideouts to take advantage of the Texans' porous secondary.

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Game: Arizona at Carolina (Sunday 10/26 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina -3.5 (-110)

I was all over Arizona in their last game, predicting the upset over Dallas. This week however I am going to fade them. Why? For starters, they are on the road. The Cards are turning into one of the league's best at home, but on the road they don't produce at the same level. Last season they 2-6 on the road but 6-2 at home. This year they are 3-0 SU and ATS at home, outscoring opponents 102-51. That includes wins over the Cowboys and the 5-1 Buffalo Bills. But, on the road, they are 1-2 SU and ATS, getting outscored by an average of score of 25-31. And, those games were against mediocre opponents (San Francisco, Washington and the Jets). This team is just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games as underdogs. Secondly, they are playing Carolina. The Panthers have emerged as a force in 2008. They are 5-2 having posted wins against San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans. They have not lost against the spread in seven straight home games. In their four home games this season, they have outscored their opponents 108-33! The Cards have lost 21 of their last 29 games ATS following two straight wins. I like Carolina here at home, laying the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Chip Chirimbes

AFC GOY Miami

[Mr. IWS]

Jeffersonsports Early Release
Tulsa-23 (released Mon Night)

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
New Orleans......5 unit
monday...Tennessee....1 unit

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S 3* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET!

Pick # 1 Arizona Cardinals (3.5)



RON RAYMOND'S 5* O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Atlanta Falcons /Philadelphia Eagles Under 45 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George | NFL Side
dime bet208 DAL -1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 207 TAM
Analysis:
Dallas -1

The Cowboys back is against the wall, Tampa Struggled against lowly Seattle for most the game last week, but I have a feeling that this is a game many expect Dallas to lose in the shape they are, but Brad Johnson and company get it done against his old team here. Tampa 1-2 on the road this year and I like Dallas to bounce back at home in a game that sets up the rest of the season in my opinion. Cowboys have more talent and should be able to get it all put together against a suspect Bucs team. Look for a reversal of fortune here for Dallas.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.




2 team teaser. Tease Baltimore to -3 and tease the TOTAL in the Steelers / Giants game Up to 48.5 and take the UNDER. Play 1 Unit..Thanks and Good Luck..Tony George





Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet209 ATL 9.5 (-110) BetUS vs 210 PHI
Analysis:

Atlanta +9

A team who beat Green Bay on the road getting 9 here. Unlike other rebuilding teams like KC lets say, Atlanta is getting better each week. The power running game, good passing by Rookie Ryan, and Philly is not fully recovered from their losing ways, although we pounded them last week against the 49ers, anyone looks good against the 49ers. Atlanta has a solid defense, good special teams, confidence, and some great skill players and scheme their games well. Should be a good game, possibly low scoring, I will take Atlanta. and the generous points. I watch Atlanta play and beat a good Chicago team last week and am impressed with the QB and RB and defense as well as being very well coached and prepared.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta






Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet214 CAR -3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 213 ARI
Analysis:


Carolina -3.5

Sold on the resurgence of Carolina here who plays tough defense at home and power running game should dominate here, and open play action to WR Smith to make big plays. Arizona has lost 2 out of their 3 roadies this year to the NY Jets and Washington, both sound defeats. I like going against an Overtime winner, especially a dog the following week. Carolina is on a roll, they are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10, and in their last 3 games they have allowed 11 ppg on defense. Like the running game against Arizona here and the home team.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes | NFL Side
double-dime bet208 DAL -2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 207 TAM
Analysis: This game will be between two teams with different states of mind right now. More important than injuries or the players missing on a certain game, the psychological aspect can be the most important factor of a game and the teams are coming to this game in opposite states of mind.

Dallas has lost their second game in a row and the 3rd of their last 4 games. Their defeat against the Rams was horrible (I took them). The Cowboys started well the game with a TD on the first drive of the game, but then allowed 3 TD on the 3 first drives of the Rams, suffering 21 points in the 1st quarter of the game! This was the second game in a row the Cowboys have allowed at least 30 points and I expect the team to bounce back this week.

Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said Friday morning he was impressed with how the players responded to up-tempo practices this week and also with the atmosphere in the locker room.

"I have a good feeling," Phillips said. "Our team attitude is good. They're looking forward to this game."

Their defense will have their big test this week, after being humiliated last week against one of the weakest offenses of the league. The situation that I've told before about the psychological aspect of this game has to go with the fact this is a must win game for Dallas and it is inserted on a very strong spot called "Playoff Potential". And why? Well, Dallas is 4-3 and a defeat this week would put them with a 4-4 record, knowing the Giants are 5-1 and the Redskins are 5-2. So, a loss this week would put on a big hole, especially when their next two games will be against the Giants and the Redskins on the road!!! A defeat this week would almost kill their chances of reaching the postseason.

The spot of the Bucs is totally the opposite. They are 5-2 right now and they are coming from a very big home win over Seattle on a SNF game. And looking at their schedule, their next three games will be against the Chiefs, Minny and Detroit. A possible 3-0 for them on these games would be no surprise, which put the Bucs on a lookahead situation this week.

QB Brad Johnson didn't have the season debut as a starter he wanted last week against the Rams, with 3 interceptions and 1 TD pass, for just 50% completions, but Johnson has an edge this week. He has played in Tampa for four seasons with coach Gruden and know the Bucs' defensive system very well and knows how to avoid it.

Dallas is 0-4 ATS on their last 4 games and they are just being favored by 2 points on this game, so a win by a FG is enough for them to cover. The team still has a lot of talent even without Romo and the spot is too strong to be avoided. Dallas is 15-4 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1992. So, I'm taking Dallas in here for a good bounce back game for them. DOUBLE DIME PLAY.





Sun, 10/26/08 - 4:15 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Total
dime bet220 PIT / 219 NYG Under 42.0 Bodog
Analysis: At first sight, we could say this game will have as its key matchup, the offense of the Giants (2nd best in the league with 395.0 yds/game) and the defense of the Steelers (best in the NFL with only 228.3 yards/game allowed). The Giants are showing this season that they have a good offensive game. They won last season's SuperBowl, mainly due to their defense, but this season their offense is simply on-fire. All of this is true, but it hides a very important factor: the level of the opponents the Giants have faced this season. In 6 games, the Giants have faced one team with a winning record, the Redskins on opening night. After that, the Giants faced teams with a combined record of 7-25!!! So, it's better to be careful, when we analyze the Giants for this week's game. They have the best rushing game of the league, with 169.7 yards/game. But if we see the defenses of the Giants' opponents on their last 5 games, the team with the best rush defense is Seattle and they are just 22nd on the league with 121.3 rushing yards/game allowed. The last two times teams limited the Giants' running games, they had problems, as they barely defeated the Bengals and lost against the Browns.

Well, the Steelers are at a whole different level. They are the 2nd best rush defense of the league with just 69.7 yards/allowed and the Giants will for the first time the season face a team, which is capable of making them struggle on both ends of the football. However, the defense of the Giants continues to be very strong, even though most of the talk is about their offense right now. The team bounce back nicely from their MNF disaster at Cleveland and limited the 49ers to 17 points. And the Steelers will struggle on the offense. First of all, the injuries: WR Santonio Holmes is a big loss for this game, due to extra football motives. And if we add the fact RB Willie Parker is doubtful for this game, the Steelers will have problems in their offense this week. The blitzing DL of the Giants will cause a lot of problems to the Steelers and their way of attacking the pass rush is very similar to the one the Eagles use and if you remember earlier in the season, the Eagles defense rocked Ben Roethlisberger for eight sacks. The Giants are the 2nd team of the league with most sacks this season: 21! And the best of the league on that stat is the... Steelers with 25!

So, I predict both teams to have problems on their offense on this week and I expect an hard game in a low scoring affair in here. This will be the first big test of the Giants this season and the Under is 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Unless, some weird stuff happens on the field, this will be a low scoring game. Take the under in here.

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning
20*Miami
10*Detroit , Cincy.

[Mr. IWS]

Joyce Sterling
Sunday NFL 10/26

Pittsburgh -3 (8-3 run)10 STAR Game of the Week
Eli Manning vs Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh, first in the league in total defense (228.3 yards per game) and pass defense (158.7), is coming off a 38-10 wen vs Cincinnati last week. The Steelers held an opponent to less than 100 yards rushing for the fifth time this season, surrendered a season-low 128 passing yards and forced a turnover for the fifth time in six games. Steelers' 89 points allowed is the second-lowest total in the NFL. Their offense also appears to be coming around with a second consecutive game of at least 375 yards.

Washington -9
They already played poorly vs a previous winless team, St. Louis, 2 weeks ago so they should be more focused here. After overcoming a bad first half to survive another close call last week, they'll try to return to form by taking advantage of another of the NFL's worst teams. Jason Campbell is yet to be picked off this season. Detroit is in total disarray. They are 2-11 ATS their last 13 games.

Cleveland +7
Cleveland needs this game. They are 13-0 ATS playing a nondivision game off a nondivision game. The Cleveland defense is underrated, they have held 4 of 6 opponents to 14 points or less. They are on a 13-4 ATS run.

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

5*BEST BET

Philadelphia over Atlanta by 20
For multiple reasons, the Eagles picked an opportune time to even
their record for the season. For openers, head coach Andy Reid
sparkles in games when playing with rest, going 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS,
including 5-0 ATS versus a .666 or greater opponent. Better yet, when
Donovan McNabb is his starting QB and his team is rested, the Eagles
are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. In addition, Reid is 6-1 ATS in games when his
record is dead-even .500 and he’s taking on a foe off a SU and ATS win.
And speaking of dead-even .500 clubs, teams in Game Seven that are
playing at home off one-win exact are 12-4 ATS since 1980. While the
Falcons are an improved unit from last season they have allowed three
of their last four foes 2nd high season yards. The Eagles, on the other
hand, have held four foes to season-low yardage. Andy looks dandy
in this spot today.

4* BEST BET

NY Giants over Pittsburgh by 10
As we approach the halfway mark of the 2008 NFL season, it’s apparent
there is no clear-cut favorite in either conference. The Chargers, Colts
and Patriots have struggled, thus vaulting the Steelers and Titans into
prominence in the AFC. The Cowboys, Eagles and Bucs have all had
their woes, making the G-Men and Redskins the teams to beat in the
NFC. Thus, this could be a possible Super Bowl preview. We all know
the Giants’ affi nity for playing away from home (12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS
last 13 games). What you don’t know is that defending Super Bowl
champions shine on the road if not favored when taking on a .833 or
greater opponent. That’s because these ring-winners are 12-1 ATS in
this role since 1980! Considering Steeler boss Mike Tomlin is 0-4 ATS
in games off back-to-back wins if the last game was against a division
foe, we’ll stand tall with Big Blue.


3* BEST BET

Arizona over Carolina by 7

Both of these teams missed out on the playoffs last season and both
appear to be in post-season contention as we near the halfway mark
of this 2008 campaign. The Cardinals were denied a winning record
last year when the Panthers upended them, 25-10, as 6-point home
favorites.If that isn’t incentive enough then perhaps Ken Whisenhunt’s
10-1 ATS career mark in games against opponents off a win of 7 or
more points should be. On the other side of the ledger, Carolina head
coach John Fox trots off to the fi nance company as a home favorite
in games against .666 or greater opposition, going 3-6 SU and 1-7-1
ATS. That being said, we fully expect the Panthers to drop to 3-15 ATS
at home against .500 or greater opponents with revenge here today.
We’re raising Arizona.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens NFL

8 units New England Patriots -7.5

5 units Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5

5 units Cleveland Browns +7.0

[Mr. IWS]

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): OAKLAND RAIDERS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS


Play: BALTIMORE RAVENS -7

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): TAMPA BAY BUCS vs DALLAS COWBOYS


Play: TAMPA BAY BUCS +2

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): NEW YORK GIANTS vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS


Play: NEW YORK GIANTS +3

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Guys,
Horrible day yesterday. We were looking great at 3-0 coming into the weekend, but I dropped the ball. We will bounce back strong.


NFL Football
Raiders/Ravens Under 35.5
The Raiders held a great QB in check last week and will look to build on that momentum against a rookie in Joe Flacco. Oakland will have a tough time scoring on a solid as usual Ravens Defense. Russell looked OK last week, but I do not see Oakland generating much offense. Take the Under.

Buffalo/Miami Under 42
Both teams are having solid seasons, but Buffalo has exceeded everyone's expectations. I still think the Bills are overrated and will be going up against an experienced Dolphins Defense. Miami will also be going up against a more experienced defense and neither team has the type of offense to blow you away. We could see wind gust of 40mph. That is tough on the kickers and the QB's. Take the Under.

Giants +3 over Steelers
The Giants are on a roll and are lucky they wont be getting Pittsburgh's best punch on offense with so many injuries. New York has a huge offensive line and big receivers which should give the Steelers a lot of trouble. The Giants are last years Champs and are playing like them. Take the Gmen.

Cincinnati/Houston Over 45
Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the man for the rest of the season under center for the Bengals. Fitzpatrick is a smart QB that should do alright against a suspect Texans Defense. Both teams have huge size mismatches of offense and should move the ball well today. The Bengals are a team that has nothing to lose and are very capable of winning this game. Look for the Bengals offense to find a spark and for Houston to take advantage of a bad Cincinnati defense. Take the Over.

College Football
No plays today.

[Mr. IWS]

EXPERT: Ted Sevransky
TITLE: Teddy's Tremendous Trifecta
REASON FOR PICK:
We haven’t seen the Giants installed as underdogs since their incredible playoff run last year, when they were undervalued by bettors in each one of their four postseason victories. Frankly, I don’t believe that New York is priced properly in this ballgame either. We’re talking about a team that is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games away from home. The G-men are 8-1 ATS in their last nine tries as underdogs, reeling off seven outright upset victories during that span. And the Giants are primed to bring their ‘A’ game this week after relatively lethargic showings in each of their last two ballgames.
Clearly, the Giants had more than their fair share of trouble getting motivated for their last few games, an awful showing on Monday Night Football at Cleveland and a lethargic showing last week at home against the 49ers. Head coach Tom Coughlin: “I think we’re capable of playing a whole lot better than we did (against San Fran), but as I told the players, the objective was to win.” And the Giants did just that, winning and covering despite suffering one of the worst pointspread plays in football, the dreaded ‘blocked field goal returned for a touchdown’, a ten point swing. Take that single play out of the mix and we’re looking at a 32-10 Giants victory, a result that probably would have caused this pointspread to be much closer to ‘pick ‘em than it is.

The Giants match up extremely well with Pittsburgh on both sides of the football. We’ve seen the Steelers offense struggle twice so far this year, despite the fact that they’ve yet to beat a single team with a winning record in ’08. When the Steelers banged up OL (still missing guard Kendall Simmons and tackle Marvel Smith) faced the pressure defenses of Philadelphia and Baltimore, they simply couldn’t handle it. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a whopping nine times in the 15-6 loss at Philly, as the Steelers managed just 180 total yards of offense.

Against the Ravens, the Steelers escaped with a three point win, but the offense gained just 208 yards and produced only 13 points in regulation. With Willie Parker expected to miss the game again this week and Rashard Mendenhall languishing on injured reserve, expect the Steelers to find rushing yards much harder for Mewelde Moore to gain this week than they were last week against the Bengals porous defense. And don’t expect Roethlisberger to be able to handle the steady diet of blitzes that Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is sure to call – the Giants defense resembles Philadelphia’s more than any other team in the NFL.

The Giants, on the other hand, have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL, gaining 170 yards per game on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, by far the best in the league. Brandon Jacobs has 516 rushing yards and six touchdowns despite averaging only 16 rushing attempts per game. Derrick Ward has averaged 7.2 yards per carry for his eight rushing attempts. And the G-men’s offensive line has protected Eli Manning extremely well, allowing only six sacks all year on a QB who averages 31 passing attempts per game. There’s no reason to think that the Steelers suspect offense will be able to trade points with the Giants elite level attack. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: 6* Take the Giants.

[Mr. IWS]

kelsos
50 units chairman goy

ny jets

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Hansen's NFC GOY is on Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law

5% KANSAS CITY +$14 GOY
2% JACKSONVILLE -7
2% SEATTLE +5.5
2% KANSAS CITY +$600

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Majors | NFL Side
double-dime bet200 BAL -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 199 OAK
Analysis:
Both Oakland Raiders (2-4) and Baltimore Ravens (3-3) ended their three game losing streak last weekend.

The Raiders will challenge the Raven defense this weekend as they amassed 344 total yards against the Jets in a 16-13 victory. QB JaMarcus Russell went 17-30 for 203 yards a 1 touchdown. The defense allowed the Jets 418 yards which was the 3rd time this season this has occurred.

The Ravens offense averages 17.5 ppg and 313.7 ypg which ranks 26th in the league. QB Joe Flacco went 17-23 for 232 yards and 1 touchdown against Miami and RB Willie McGahee ran 19 times for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. The defense surrendered a season high 359 yards last week against Miami, but still manage a 27-13 victory.

The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more that 350 total yards in their previous game. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The defense is solid at home with the Ravens and we are going with giving the small number as the Ravens will shut down the Raiders.

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet214 CAR / 213 ARI Over 42.0 Bodog
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:05pm ET / WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:05pm ET / Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

1:05pm ET / Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

4:15pm ET / NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL


Game One:
The high-flying Cardinals travel east this week rested, relaxed, and confident (4-2 SU).Off 2 huge home wins against the Cowboys and Bills, Arizona now ?holds all the CARDS? in regards to the weak NFC West division. We already know that they qualify in high-scoring ?WEST to EAST? Over tendencies, which is a good start, But both they AND the Panthers are active in two great ?Pre and Post? REST situations:
6-1 O/U since 1999 for Game 7 teams with REST off a SUATS win (CARDS).... and 6-0 O/U for Game 8 FAVS of < 6 points BEFORE their Bye Week (PANTHERS).

Arizona?s offense is in high gear, scoring 30, 41, and 35 in their last 3 games.
Since 2002, NFL dogs of 2+ points are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 30+ pts in their last 3 games.
And if you?re looking for a hot ultra-RECENT tendency: In the last 12 months, NFL underdogs playing off 3 straight ?OVERS? are 8-1 O/U.

The results of their last 2 games is a good sign for us, as revealed in a rare System: 3-0 O/U since 2002 for all NFL dogs of 6 < pts off a SU home win as a dog of +4 or more... and a SU home win before that. Meanwhile, the Panthers have reeled off 5 straight UNDERS in their last 5. This is the week we strike back: 10-2 O/U in the last 3 years for all NFL teams off 5 straight ?Unders? in a row... and 4-0 O/U if both tms are off a SU win. Carolina?s last 2 games have been a division roller coaster, as they creamed the Saints but lost big to the Bucs. 6-0 O/U since 1990: ALL home teams off a SU div win 17+ pts.. and a SU div loss of 17+ pts.


Game Two:
The winless Lions have allowed a whopping 31 PPG so far in the 2008 season, so this call is not much of a stretch. They?re the perfect opponent for the Redskins to get back in gear against. As we mention on page three of this week's TIPSHEET, Detroit is active in a pretty solid System as they seek their first win. 12-1 O/U since 1986 for Game 7 or greater non-division WINLESS teams against an opponent off a SU home win (like the Skins).
As a result of their early-season futility, the Lions are getting a ton of points at home this week. These ?long dogs? have been really hot so far this year for high-scoring potential.
ALL non-division home dogs of 7+ points are already a PERFECT 5-0 O/U this season... and 24-9 O/U in the last 3 years..

I also did some research in the set that I created in the database for the teams that play their home games indoors. The ?Dome Dog? aspect also reveals great OVER results for Detroit: 22-7 O/U for all DOME home dogs since 2001... 10-2 O/U as dogs of > 4 pts... and 7-0 O/U in the last 2 years.

On the Redskins side, we?ll be playing on another team that?s also on a UNDER streak (0-3 O/U last 3). This angle applies not just to the ?Skins, but to the Panthers (above) too: 8-1 O/U in the last 10 years for GAME 8 non-div FAVS playing off 3+ Straight ?Unders? in a row. Washington?s results in their last 2 homies (SU win ATS loss / SUATS loss) has them active in a nice one based on the site + spread. 5-0 O/U since 2002 ALL road favs of -4 > pts off a SU home win but ATS loss (vs Clev).. and a SUATS home loss before that. (vs Stl).


Game Three:
This NYJ / KC series is already 1-4-1 O/U in the last 5 meetings. There were four upsets last week in the NFL as the Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, and Colts all lost as favorites (against the Ravens, Rams, Raiders, and Packers respectively). The Playbook database tells us to look for low-scoring results when these pissed-off losers return to the comforts of home in the month of October. 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. we note that NON-DIVISION teams (JETS and COWBOYS) are 2-10 O/U.... and have already gone 1-6 O/U so far in the 2008 season.

A review of this week's point spread and OU line also points us in the right direction: In the last 3 years, NFL teams are a PERFECT 0-4 O/U as non-div home favs of > 10 points with an OU line of 38 < points (Jets).

The Chiefs got bounced at home last week against the Titans 38-10. Another good sign for UNDER players:
1-6 o/U in the last 4 years for NFL road teams off a SU non-div home dog loss of 21 or more points (Chiefs).


Game Four:
Miami is another one of those teams that we just mentioned that lost at home last week as a FAVORITE. So they apply in the same OU System as the Jets: 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. As a team, this System fits right in as MIAMI is a PERFECT 0-7 O/U at home when playing off a SU favorite loss.

Buffalo comes in with tied with the 2nd best record in the NFL at 5-1 (tied with NY GIANTS and PITT STEELERS). In some cases, we will indeed play OVER for these 5-1 teams (see below). But in some situations, the database tells us to go the other way (UNDER).
3-13 O/U for all GAME SEVEN road favorites of 9 < points when their current W/L record is 5-1 on the year (Bills). When these 5-1 teams are laying points in the road against fellow DIVISION opponents (like the Bills), the results are 1-10 O/U.

The Bills looked very good last week against the Chargers in their first game after their Bye week.
3-13 o/U in the last 4 years for ALL NFL teams who won SU and ATS in the week AFTER Their Bye... and lost SU and ATS in the week before their Bye (Bills). ROAD teams in this situation are 1-8 O/U.


Game Five:
If we're talking about a HOME game in the 'STEEL CITY', we always look to the Over FIRST... instead of the Under. Steeler home ?OVERS? have been the way to go lately (23-5-1 O/U last 29 home games / 12-1 O/U as home favs < 7 pts). There?s no other way to go!

Our previous write-up mentioned Buffalo's 5-1 record entering their game against the Dolphins. Well, this game features not one but TWO teams who come in with a 5-1 SU record so far in the 2008 season.
This situation is rare, but the database tells us that When a 5-1 team takes on another 5-1 team, the results are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U since 1993.

Both teams come in off B-I-G wins:
6-1 O/U since 1995 for all teams off a road win of 28 > pts (PITT) vs an opp off a home win of 10 > pts (NYG).

Here?s an Inter-conference query that also fits the bill:
17-4 O/U since 2004 for AFC home favs vs an NFC opp when both are off a SU win.

The Giants rebounded nicely off their Monday loss 2 weeks ago.
6-0 O/U since 2000 for all teams off a SU DD home fav win... and a SU road loss as favs of -7 > POINTS

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

5 units Oak/Balt UNDER 35.5
4 units Tampa Bay +2
3 units Giants +3

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club Pro FB 10/26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6 units Bills (pk)
5 units Eagles -9
4 units Ariz +4
4 units Wash -7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Doccs Sports

4 Unit Play. #112 Take Over 43 in St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Patriots lit up the scoreboard last Monday night with an impressive beat down of Denver and we expect another high scoring game on Sunday as they play their second straight game @ Foxboro Stadium. The Rams have been the talk of the league the last two weeks, as they have notched two straight victories under new Coach Jim Haslett and the beat down Dallas last week. We will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over. New England 31, St. Louis 24.

3 Unit Play. #118 Take Philadelphia Eagles -8 ½ over Atlanta Flacons (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Falcons are coming off a bye and playing a desperate team looking to stay in contention for a playoff birth in the NFC. The Eagles also had last week off and Coach Reid is 9-3 ATS when coming off of a bye. The Eagles are starting to get healthy with running back Westbrook likely back and he makes this offense go. RB Turner has had some big games but most of them came at home against bad teams and the Eagles defense will blitz early and often creating problems for young QB Ryan. Philly needs this one and they get it by double-digits. Philadelphia 31, Atlanta 17.

3 Unit Play. #126 Take Tennessee Titans -4 over Indianapolis Colts (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans continue to be doubted week in and week out, but all that they do is win games and are playing an overrated Colts team on Monday night. Indy is still without S Bob Sanders and without him their defense is not the same. Green bay ran the ball right down their throat and expect the Titans and their one-two punch of Johnson and White to have similar success. The Titans take control of the AFC and we collect big the process as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

VSE NFL Plays for Sunday are:

10* Take Philadelphia (-9) over Atlanta (Power Play)
1:00 PM EST

Atlanta
• 1-4 SU & ATS vs. NFC East Division Opponents
• 2-18 SU as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
• 3-11 ATS coming off an upset win as a home underdog

[Mr. IWS]

ATSLOCKS.COM


Falcons @ Eagles Under 45 (15 Units)

Steelers -3 (10 Units)

49ers -5.5 (10 Units)

Eagles -9 (5 Units)

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast Full Service Line

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pro Play Of Week Balt, Overnight Chalk Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

LENNY STEVENS
20 MIAMI
20 PITTSBURGH
10 baltimore
10 philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

DOC
PREMIUM PLAY

3 Unit Play. #118 Take Philadelphia Eagles over Atlanta Flacons (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Falcons are coming off a bye and playing a desperate team looking to stay in contention for a playoff birth in the NFC. The Eagles also had last week off and Coach Reid is 9-3 ATS when coming off of a bye. The Eagles are starting to get healthy with running back Westbrook likely back and he makes this offense go. RB Turner has had some big games but most of them came at home against bad teams and the Eagles defense will blitz early and often creating problems for young QB Ryan. Philly needs this one and they get it by double-digits. Philadelphia 31, Atlanta 17.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

DAL -2.5 vs TAM

Double-Dime Bet

Dallas returns home off back-to-back road losses looking to get back on the win track at Texas Stadium today when they host Tampa Bay. For openers the Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses when facing non-division opponents. Furthermore, NFL home teams with a winning record playing off back-to-back SU road favorite losses are 10-0 SU and ATS if they scored 17 or less points in their last game. With Tampa 0-10-1 ATS on the road off a win versus a greater than .000 opponent off back-to-back losses we'll stay at home with the Cowboys in this game.


CLE 7 vs JAC

Double-Dime Bet

Cleveland travels to Jacksonville in a non-division AFC showdown in a matchup of two disappointing teams. The Jaguars enter today's game allowing 34 YPG than they are gaining this season, not a good indicator for a touchdown favorite. They are also 0-8 ATS when favored by 6 or more points against an opponent off a road game. Meanwhile, the Browns will look to rely on Romeo Crennel's 7-1 ATS record as a dog of 6 or more points off a loss, including 7-0 versus a foe off and ATS loss or win or less than 15 points. Take the points with Cleveland.





Marc Lawrence

Tulsa

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco

10 dime - Philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
300 Balt/Oak under
100 Jets
100 SF
100 NO
100 CAR
50 6.5 pt tease STL +14/under

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

Triple-Dime Bet

CIN +10 vs HOU

Contrary to popular belief, there is value in playing on 0-7 NFL teams. While the prevailing thought is that these teams are tanking and done for the year, that is not neccessarily the case with winless teams. These teams will continue to play hard as they hope to avoid NFL history by going 0-16 SU. Backing up our point is the fact that NFL Underdogs off seven or more consecutive SU losses are 62-27 ATS (69.7%) since 1992. Put these dogs on the road and that percentage increases to 75.6% (34-11 ATS). The Houston Texans are the perfect opponent to go against here. They are just 1-5 ATS this season with pointspread losses to the likes of the Dolphins and the Lions. Covering spreads of this magnitude is something they are not accustomed to, which was apparent when they couldn't seal the deal against Detroit LW, as 9.5-point chalk, in a 28-21 win. The only other time Houston has been asked to lay this many points came in the final week of the 2004 regular season and they lost outright at home to Cleveland. Remember, if the line stays where it is, that DD favorites are just 2-10 ATS this season as detailed in our latest "School Is Back In Session" article. The Texans defense is allowing nearly 30 PPG on the year. There isn't much positive to say about the Bengals right now, but only one of their road losses this year came by more than nine points. They played well at both the Giants and Dallas and that is likely because there is less pressure on the road than at home, where they are getting jeered when they get a first down. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick actually looked more comfortable last week, which is encouraging. Texans are just 4-15 ATS off a home win during their existence. Cincinnati is our NFL Sunday SHOCKER of the Year.

BAL -7 vs OAK

Double-Dime Bet

By now, it's no secret that West Coast teams do not play well in the Eastern Time Zone in these early starts. They are now 1-8 ATS this season. Going back to 2002, they are 27-66 SU. Two weeks ago, Oakland had the benefit of coming off a bye week and still got smashed, 34-3, at New Orleans. Now, it's JaMarcus Russell and the rest of the pathetic Raiders offense against Ray Lewis and a Ravens defense that still ranks right at the top of the league. They entered Week 7 play ranked #1 in both total and rush defense. That means Russell is going to have to pass the ball, which he has yet to show the ability to do. The only team that beat up Baltimore this year was Indianapolis and that is because they have Peyton Manning. The other two Ravens losses both came by a field goal, to Pittsburgh and Tennessee no less, teams that have one loss between them. No one runs the ball well on Baltimore as they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 25 games, the longest such streak in the NFL. All the Raiders can do on offense is run. The Silver and Black average just 16 PPG this season while the Ravens are allowing 11 PPG in three home games. Take Baltimore.

NOS / SDC Over 44.5

Double-Dime Bet

Remember that this game is being played in London, for god-knows-what-reason. People will likely remember last year's 13-10 debacle, played between the Dolphins and the Giants, and are looking at this week's weather report. The oddsmakers certainly must be, as we can't understand why this posted total would be so low. This is a pair of teams that are all offense and no defense. Both teams started the season 3-0 Over, but have tailed off a bit. This matchup will rectify that. Sure, the Saints are without RB Reggie Bush, but they still have the league's #1 passing attack. That's worth noting because the Chargers defense is ranked 32nd (that's last!) in the league against the pass. New Orleans defense won't remind anyone of the 1985 Bears as they've allowed 30+ in three of their previous five games. They have allowed 31.5 PPG in their last four road games. Both teams are tops in their respective conference in yards per pass attempt (SD = 9.0, NO = 8.Cool. The defenses surrender 23 and 22 PPG. These are also two desperate teams in need of a win. Expect plenty of points in Jolly Old England. Over San Diego/New Orleans is our #1 NFL Total of the Week.

PHI -9 vs ATL

At first glance, this looked like a total overlay. Then, we remembered the Eagles are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS coming off a bye week during the tenure of HC Andy Reid, allowing an average of just 8.8 PPG. Secondly, we remembered that Atlanta was crushed by a combined 48-18 in the first two road games. Rookie Falcons QB Matt Ryan is improving, but that was a phony win over Chicago two weeks ago where they were outgained and outplayed. Atlanta's lone road win came against an injury-riddled Packers team. The bye week gave the Eagles a chance to get healthier, particularly at WR. It also gave DC Jim Johnson an extra week to come up with some complex schemes for a rookie QB. Philly is ranked #5 in total defense and faces a Falcons team that has won just two of its previous 13 road games. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS here in Philly, a streak that extends back to 1992. The Falcons can't match the Eagles offensive firepower. RB Michael Turner is inconsistent as he has failed to top 60 yards or score a touchdown in half of his games. Statement game for the Eagles. Take Philadelphia.

[Mr. IWS]

Alex Smart

Falcons / Eagles Under

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

Pro Football Picks
10/26/2008
12:00:00 PM MIAMI DOLPHINS (+1.5)
over Buffalo Bills
ASA 3-Star #206 @ Miami (+1.5) over Buffalo - 12:00 pm CST

This is a huge game for the Fins. They are just 2-4 on the season and they cannot fall much further behind in the AFC East. Buffalo has some cushion with only one loss this year, however they have not played great in their two road games. The Bills were crushed @ Arizona 41-17 and in their road win @ St. Louis they were out gained by 103 yards. This Buffalo team is definitely improved, but not quite ready to be laying points on the road. Many have talked about how well Buffalo QB Trent Edwards has been playing, but lets not forget about the Dolphins Chad Pennington whose numbers are right there with Edwards. Pennington has completed nearly 69% of his passes for 1400 yards. His running game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams has also been solid. They have proven they can beat good teams tripping up both San Diego and New England this year. Off two straight losses @ Houston and at home vs. Baltimore, Miami really needs this win. The Bills are coming off a big home win vs. San Diego last Sunday. While they shouldn’t look past the Fins as they are very under rated in our opinion, with huge games vs. the Jets and Pats on deck, Buffalo could be flat here. The Bills are banged up in the secondary with starting CB Terrance McGee and Ashton Ybouty possibly out this week. That would leave Buffalo with just three corners, two of which are rookies. Also, DE Aaron Schobel, their best pass rusher, might be held out due to an injured foot. Miami’s head coach Tony Sparano is a hard nosed leader who was REALLY upset with the way his defense played last week. Expect Miami to play much better on that side of the ball this week. The Bills have had trouble running the ball with starter Marshawn Lynch yet to crack 100 yards. That will be a problem again on Sunday as the Dolphins allow just 97 YPG. The Bills are simply not yet to be trusted on the road as they are just 14-31 SU their last 45 away games. Now begin favored might be a bit too much against a decent Miami team. We’ll take the points with the homer here.


10/26/2008
12:00:00 PM PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9)
over Atlanta Falcons
ASA 3-Star #210 @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9) over Atlanta Falcons - 12:00 pm CST

The Eagles come in at 3-3 and being in the ultra tough NFC East, this is pretty much a must win game at home. After this game, Philly plays three of their next four on the road so they will definitely play with a sense of urgency here. Also, despite a .500 record, the Eagles are in LAST place in the AFC East behind the 5-1 Giants, the 5-2 Redskins and the 4-3 Cowboys. They simply cannot afford a loss at home this weekend with the potential of falling even further behind that talented trio. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel that gives Philadelphia more of an advantage. Top notch defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson will have some very confusing schemes now designed to throw off rookie QB Matt Ryan. Johnson loves to blitz and we expect Ryan to be completely baffled by what Philly will throw at home this week. The Eagle defense allows just 91 YPG rushing, so look for them to take away Atlanta’s vaunted rushing attack and put the pressure squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. Not something a rookie needs in a tough road venue. Atlanta is just 1-2 SU in their three road games losing by identical 24-9 scores @ Tampa and Carolina. They did beat GB 27-24 with an injured Aaron Rodgers directing the Packer offense. The Falcons have been out gained in all three road games, including their win. Ryan has completed just 50% of his passes on the road and he has thrown 3 interceptions and just 2 TD’s. Philly has played the MUCH tougher schedule already facing the likes of Dallas, Washington, Pittsburgh & Chicago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents at home by an average of 100 YPG and won by an average of 12 PPG. QB Donovan McNabb has been playing lights out at QB and he gets his #1 weapon Brian Westbrook back in the line up on Sunday. The very good home team is back into a corner and must win this game. They do it EASILY. Take Philly and lay the number.


10/26/2008
3:15:00 PM UNDER 42,JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
-vs-Cleveland Browns
#217/218 UNDER 42 Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 4:15 pm EST First off, statistically when we plug the numbers into our mathematical model this game should have a Total set of 37.5 NOT the 42 that Vegas has posted. The Browns offense has really struggled this year and has scored 11 or less points in 4 of 6 games this season which has them ranked 30th in the NFL in total ‘O’. More importantly for us is the fact that they scored an average of 1-point for every 16.66 yards gained with puts then 27th in the league in yards per point scored. Cleveland Brown fans are mystified by the decline of the Browns offense which returned essentially intact from last year, averaged over 25 ppg and was 8th in the league in Total ‘O’. Defensively though the Browns defense has played very well when it comes to yards-per-points allowed, ranking 3rd in the league at 18.64. Meaning it takes Browns opponents 18.64 yards to score 1-point which is very good. Jacksonville comes into this game having faced four explosive offenses which makes their defensive numbers a little misleading. Overall the Jags rank 21st in the NFL in Total ‘D’ but again if we look at yppa they are 8th in the league at 15.96 or they allow 1-point for every 15.96 yards gained by their opponent. Offensively they’ve put up some big scores but it takes them a lot of yards to get those points. They average 14.83 ypps which ranks them 16th in the league. The Jags are looking to get their running game going which was evidenced by their 155 rushing yards against the Broncos two weeks ago. RB’s Taylor and Jones-Drew should have good success against a Browns defense allowing 4.8 yards per rush. Collectively we can’t see this game topping 40 points. Play under!

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast

4* Giants
3* Philly
3* Car

S/N--Tulsa

Opinions--Balt, Dallas, Wash, Clev, Buff & Over Cinn

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions - Sunday October 26, 2008 1:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Detroit Lions +9 (-130)

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
202 NOS 3.5 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 201 SDC
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **

(Buy the 1/2 Point to +3.5...w/ almost every shop offering SD -3 and -120/125...you should be able to grab the hook without the higher vig to get off 3)



Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
206 MIA 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 205 BUF
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **



Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
204 NYJ / 203 KAN Over 39.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** 2* TOTAL ** (UPGRADED)



Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
199 OAK 8.5 (-110) Bodog vs 200 BAL
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **



I had waited with the hope that this one gets to +9...but rather than wait and risk the outfits taking a stronger position, especially if Reed or McAlister, who are both listed as questionable...decided not to go...VR



BONUS NASCAR for SUNDAY :



1.) KASEY KHANE +3000 (1*)...

I was really surprised when I called a friend back in Vegas and was informed he could get me +4000 on Khane...But I went and posted it at the Price it is currently being offered at Sportsbook.com, among others...

Rather than invest more units, by taking Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards...I have decided to go ahead and back Khane in Atlanta...which is the type of track he has really run well on this year for Everham...More importantly, he has already had a WIN and 4 Top 5's there and at this pricem since all the attention is on the guys trying to win the Chase...I just couldn't pass up an opportunity to go with a driver who should be willing to take some risks...and if he is able to be in contention late, we just may be able to pick up a nice score...VR







Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
208 DAL -1.0 (-115) Sportsbetting.com vs 207 TAM
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER *

[Mr. IWS]

c jordan
600 carolina

200 teaser jax and balt

[Mr. IWS]

NSA
20* Phil
10* Stl
10* Mia
10* SD
10* TB
10* Balt

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex
Super Play
Carolina
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

FARGO

TITLE: **9** 77.8% Non-Conference ATS BLOWOUT**
REASON FOR PICK: **9** 77.8% Non-Conference Game of the Year** The last two weeks have shown how teams can completely turn things around if they want to. Since Scott Linehan was fired, the Rams have a newfound confidence as they have won their two games under Jim Haslett and they have come against two tough opponents in Washington and Dallas. Yes, the Cowboys were without Tony Romo but if this game was played three weeks ago, St. Louis probably would not have shown up. This league is about confidence and the Rams have it right now.


New England caught some very early breaks against Denver on Monday night with turnovers and an injury to quarterback Jay Cutler. It was an impressive win no doubt but it is very unlikely the Patriots can do it two weeks in a row. That win over Denver was a big one and with a game at Indianapolis next week, this is a horrible spot for New England. The wins by St. Louis may have caught its attention but I am far from sold on this offense and its very aging defense.



The St. Louis offense is making strides. Marc Bulger, who was benched under Linehan which did not go over well with the other players, is coming off his best game against the Cowboys as he posted a 118.5 passer rating. The Rams 34 points scored was a season high and was just nine fewer points that the club had totaled over its first four games of the season. Steven Jackson ran everywhere against Dallas and there is no reason to believe he won’t do it again against the Patriots.



New England lost safety Rodney Harrison for the season and even though he is old, he was a big part of the defense. The secondary was not good to begin with and his loss hurts both the passing defense as well as the rushing defense. The Patriots are allowing 7.7 ypa which is 24th in the league and they are allowing 4.5 ypc on the ground which is also 24th. Thus the 313.2 ypg allowed overall, which is 13th in the NFL, is extremely skewed as this team gives up big chunks.



The St. Louis defense is no prize as it is 29th in the NFL overall but the Patriots offense is a shell of what it was last season. Matt Cassel had solid numbers against the Broncos but he is still unable to get the ball downfield on a consistent basis. Sammy Morris ran all over Denver but I don’t see him putting up another big game. The Rams defensive line is making strides. After recording just three sacks in their first three games, the Rams have 11 sacks in their past three contests.



As mentioned, the Patriots were beneficiaries of turnover by the Broncos on Monday night and that plays against them here. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced five or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential actually favoring the underdog at +0.9 ppg. The Rams keep the momentum going. 9* St. Louis Rams

3-1 on 9* in the nfl this year. loss was last week with colts

won yesterday 9* on oregon

[Mr. IWS]

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 26, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: WE HAVE NEVER IN ALL OUR YEARS OF HANDICAPPING SEEN A STRONGER NFL SELECTION! Today you can get our PERFECT 6000* NFC CONFERENCE TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR for just $25 and as always you are a winner or your not charged! ALL FIVE of our football handicappers are making this play a BEST BET! The Computer Game Simulator gives our play a 90% chance of covering for us! We are 22-11 in football this year! 10/26/2008

PERFECT 6000* NFC CONFERENCE TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
UNDER 43 Arizona and Carolina 1:00 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* NCAAF Sunday Night GOTY (ESPN) on Tulsa -23
Tulsa had only 2 conference losses a season ago. One of those losses was at UTEP by one point. Tulsa has its revenge last week with a 77-35 win. The other loss was a blowout defeat at UCF and the Hurricane will avenge that loss Sunday night. UCF loss to the UTEP team that Tulsa crushed by a score of 13-58 earlier this season. Plays against road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 23-3 ATS since 1992. Plays on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (TULSA) - in conference games, after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival are 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Tulsa.


5* NFL Underdog of the Year on Giants +3
I think New York's ferocious pass rush will be the difference in this one, just as it was in the Super Bowl. Philly's heavy duty pass rush really took a toll on the Steelers in their only loss of the season. The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, and 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are also 10-2 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS after scoring 35 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Giants.


4* Major AFC East Game of the Month on Bills -1
Miami is definitely improved, but it has lost two in a row and is only 2-4 on the season. Buffalo proved that it was for real once again last week with a 9-point win over San Diego, the third team its beaten that was in the postseason a year ago. The Bills are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS versus Miami the past 4 seasons. Buffalo is also on a run of 8-0 ATS in its L8 games against teams with a losing record. Miami has not been kind to backers at home. Miami has struggled to a 3-10-1 ATS mark in its L14 home games and is 11-29-1 ATS in its last 41 home games, not to mention 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. the AFC East. Take the Bills.


4* Major NFL Fade of the Week on Cardinals +4.5
Off a big blowout win over division rival New Orleans, I expect the Panthers to come out flat this week against a high-powered Arizona team. Arizona avoids any letdowns after a big win over Dallas because a bye week has allowed this team more time to get re-focused and prepared. Arizona is a strong 27-11 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. Arizona is also 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. We'll fade the Panthers in this letdown spot.


3* SMASH on Ravens -6.5
After a thrilling OT win last week to snap a 3-game losing streak the Raiders will fall flat on their faces this week as they venture back out on the road. Oakland continued to struggle to score points and that does not bode well against a strong Ravens defense. The Ravens are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games with Oakland. Plays against any team (OAKLAND) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-5 ATS since 1983. Lay the points.


3* SMASH on Patriots -7
Monday night's big win over Denver did a ton for the confidence of QB Matt Cassel and also for the confidence that the Patriots have in him. I think that performance gains them more trust in Cassel and allows them to open up the offense a little more. The Rams are primed for a letdown this week coming off a big home win over Dallas. Against the AFC, St. Louis is 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games. The Patriots are 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS vs. the NFC West under Bill Belichick. St.Louis is 6-16 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 and 3-11 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons while New England is 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons and 11-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Pats.


Monday 10/27
5* AFC South GOTY on Colts +4
I like the Colts to spoil Tennessee brilliant start this week. Indy is coming off a terrible performance at Green Bay last week and it will be in full blown bounce back mode against its division rivals. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Plays on road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Colts.

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea

Triple-Dime Bet

SFX -5 vs SEA

The Seattle Seahawks lost at home to the San Francisco 49ers with Matt Hasselbeck at QB back in Week 2, and now they will be going on the road for the rematch with Seneca Wallace under center. That's reason enough to back the 49ers, but I also love the fact that Mike Singletary will be coaching his first game for the team after Mike Nolan was fired earlier in the week. As a fan of the Chicago Bears growing up, I always knew Singletary would be a head coach in the NFL someday - and a good one at that. Now he finally gets his opportunity with Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren coming to town along with speculation that Holmgren will be the man in San Francisco next year. Singletary can squash those rumors by simply winning games, and I think the 49ers will be highly motivated in this spot similar to the Rams playing much harder since Jim Haslett has replaced Scott Linehan. Defensive coaches like Singletary and Haslett tend to get their teams a lot more fired up, and that's what I'm counting on Sunday with the 49ers. Plus, the top three defensive players for the Seahawks (Marcus Trufant, Lofa Tatupu and Patrick Kerney) are still playing with casts on their arms, making them easy targets for a San Francisco offense that put 33 points on them in the last meeting. Seattle is also just 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games during the month of October. Bet the 49ers to win big as my Triple Dime NFC West Game O' the Year.


PHI (+100) vs TAM

The Phillies stole Game 3 of the World Series after blowing the lead late and now have the chance to put their ace in position to win the championship in Game 5 on Tuesday. Of course that means they will have to win Game 4, but they will be handing the ball to a pitcher who has seen them win six straight with him on the mound in Joe Blanton. While Blanton hasn't exactly been lights out for Philly, I think he will relish this opportunity to pitch in the World Series and continue his recent success. The Phillies have won also won the last five times he has pitched at home. Tampa Bay's Andy Sonnanstine has given up three home runs in two playoff starts and benefit from his teammates scoring 19 runs in those outings to earn wins. Sonnanstine did not earn a win in his last four regular-season starts away from home, and I expect a return to form here. Bet the Phillies as my Single Dime World Series Play O' the Day.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass update

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100* Steam Play: Dallas

300* under Baltimore/Oakland is a NO PLAY if the total is under 36. It is 34 1/2 at most books. NO PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports

NFL Football
4 Units on New England -8
3 Units on NY Giants +3

NCAA Football
3 Units on Tulsa Under 69.5

[Mr. IWS]

Vernon Croy's **20 Unit NFL SUPER SMASH OF THE MONTH** (63% NFL Season)


20 Units, Take San Francisco ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the 49ers are a lot better than their record might show because they have been very unlucky with turnovers. Seattle has struggled offensively on the road averaging just 205 ypg and 8.7 ppg. Seattle has also struggled over their last 3 games averaging just 183 ypg and Matt Hasselbeck is doubtful for this game which will not help matters. Seattle has struggled on the road defensively with opponents averaging 421 ypg against them and 32.7 ppg. Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after a ATS win and they are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Interim Coach Mike Singletary will have this 49ers team ready mentally and physically for this game after losing their head coach who was fired Tuesday. Take the 49ers as my NFL Super Smash of the Month and make sure you get on my NFL Total of the Month as my 63% NFL season continues.

[Mr. IWS]

CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: BUFFALO BILLS vs MIAMI DOLPHINS




Play: Miami Doplhins +2
Comments: CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: Miami Doplhins +2


CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: OAKLAND RAIDERS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS




Play: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (POD)
Comments: CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS PLAY OF THE DAY: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (POD)


CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: UCF vs TULSA




Play: NCAAF FREE PLAY UCF +23.5
Comments: CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: NCAAF FREE PLAY UCF +23.5

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units!

NFL
Tampa Bay @ Dallas 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 5* Dallas -1 1/2

Dallas is scoring 27 points per game overall this year and 32 points per game at home this season. Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 8. Cowboys are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll play Dallas for 5 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

St Louis @ New England 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* New England -7 1/2

New England is 11-1 ATS last 3 years when playing in October. St Louis is scoring only 16 points per game overall this year and 11.7 points per game on the road this season. St Louis is allowing 29.7 points per game overall this year and 30.7 points per game on the road this season. Rams are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 8. Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Rams are 2-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Patriots are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Patriots are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October. Patriots are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Patriots are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. We'll play New England for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Heisman club

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20* miami
10* dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Malinksy
4* Carolina
6* Tennessee

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME TWO-TEAM TEASER

WASHINGTON and PHILADELPHIA

Using the standard six points you receive in a 2-Team Teaser, reduce the price you are laying with both favorites.

Washington, whose game at Detroit kicks off at 1:00 P.M. Eastern, is currently anywhere from a 7 1/2 to 8 1/2 point road favorite. With the six-point teaser, you would make Washington somewhere between a 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 point chalk (depending on the original price you get, showing again why it pays to shop around).

Philadelphia, who hosts Atlanta at 1:00 P.M. Eastern, has been a consistent -9 point home favorite all week. With the six-point teaser, you would make Philadelphia a -3 point favorite instead. Obviously, the line you get might be +/- the prices I'm listing.

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp

Triple dime

Jax-Cle over 42 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Pure Lock = NE