10-28-08

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's OPENING NIGHT 82% NBA BANK-SHOT ON TNT TV -- Tuesday

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers plus the points over Boston

[Mr. IWS]

Al McMordie - 10/28/2008
NBA Pick - Milwaukee Bucks & Chicago Bulls stay Under 194½ Early season NBA contests typically find the offenses out of synch, and that's why the Under is the play Tuesday in Chicago when the Bulls entertain the Milwaukee Bucks.

Our NBA Opening Night selection is on the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks remaining under the total at the United Center.

Scott Skiles, the ex-Chicago coach, is now the top man in Milwaukee and I expect him to imprint the Bucks with his trademark hard-nose style of play. Look for the offenses to be a bit out of synch in Game 1 of the season, as over the past 18 years the Under has been a 57% ATS play in the first game for each team.

Take Milwaukee and Chicago Under 194½.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

TUESDAY

10 Dime Buffalo

5 Dime Houston

FREE - Cavaliers

[Mr. IWS]

bob lean
Buffalo 24 OHIO (-1.5) 23

04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday,

Ohio has now lost 3 games this season by 4 points or less and they are certainly better than their 1-6 record against Division 1A opponents suggest. However, the Bobcats suffered a couple of injuries to key offensive players, RB Donte Harden and TE Andrew Mooney, and they performed poorly on offense last week in a 10-14 loss to Temple. Harden was by far the best running back on the Ohio team, averaging 5.2 ypr and 18.3 yards per catch on 8 receptions and new top back Chris Garrett has averaged a pathetic 3.6 ypr this season. Ohio’s offense is 0.4 yards per play below average for the season, but they rate at 0.6 yppl below average without Harden, which is slightly worse than Buffalo’s 0.5 yppl below average defensive rating. The Bulls are 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively, but experienced quarterback Drew Willy takes care of the ball (only 10 interceptions the last two seasons on 611 pass attempts). Ohio is solid defensively, particularly by MAC standards, as the Bobcats have allowed just 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, so they have a slightly advantage over Buffalo’s offense. My math model favors Ohio by 4 points even after accounting for the injuries to their star running back and starting tight end, but the Bobcats apply to a negative 38-81-2 ATS situation and I’ll lean slightly with Buffalo plus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob's other analysis....

Houston (-7.5) 37 MARSHALL 29
05:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Oct-28 - Stats Matchup
Houston’s prolific offense (6.9 yards per play and 39 points per game against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl and 32 points to an average team) should score enough points against a sub-par Marshall defense to overcome a defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average. Marshall’s offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average, so the Thundering Herd don’t have an advantage over the Cougars’ stop unit in this game. My math model favors Houston by 8 points in a high-scoring contest, so I’ll pass the side and lean slightly with the over (62 ½ points).

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Marshall

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Ohio OVER CFB
ATL NHL
POrtland NHL