10-30-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY

20 Dime South Florida

FREE - Hornets

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
BIG EAST TOTAL OF YEAR

I'm playing on Cincinnati and South Florida to finish UNDER the total. Last year's meeting between these teams turned into a shootout, with the Bearcats earning a 38-33 upset victory. However, a closer look at that game shows that after a ridiculous 45 point first quarter, the teams actually combined for only 26 points in the final three quarters. The previous meeting, which was played here at Cincinnati in 2006, was a much lower-scoring affair. Indeed, the score was just 2-0 at halftime and finished with a final score of 23-6. With this year's game being played at what should be a relatively cool Nippert Stadium, I expect the final combined score to more closely resemble the 2006 meeting. Both defenses come off disappointing games. Both units are strong though. The Bulls are allowing only 18.4 points per game. That includes just 16.7 per game on the road (250.7 yards) and 16.5 when playing on turf. They do have a potent offense. However, they've averaged less than 19 points when playing on turf. As for the Bearcats, they've been dealing with some QB injury issuses this season and have been forced to play several different QBs. The current starter, Ton Pike is a gametime decision but has been downgraded to "doubtful." If he can't go, redshirt freshman Chazz Anderson will get the call. That means that the Bearcats are likely to scale down the offense (limit the playbook) and feature more running and short passes. The Bearcats admittedly didn't play well defensively last time out. The defense is still the strength of the team though and that game was on the road. In three home games, the Bearcats are allowing an average of only 12.3 points per game while limiting opponents to just 250 total yards in those games. Cincinnati has been stout defensively at home for longer than one season though. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 21-9 the Bearcats' last 30 home games which had an over/under line. That includes an impressive 8-2 mark in their last 10 games here when the over/under line ranged from 49.5 to 56. During the same stretch, the Bulls have seen the UNDER go 4-1 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Look for this evening's game to also prove lower-scoring than expected with the UNDER improving to 10-1 the last 11 times that the Bearcats played in October. *Big East TOY

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

I'm playing on the Suns and Hornets to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams saw their opening game finish above the number last night. That will have most expecting another high-scoring affair tonight. Phoenix went over the number last night in large part due to the Spurs using the "Hack-a-Shaq" strategy, which was putting points on the board while stopping the clock. Meanwhile, the Hornets were matched up against the high-tempo and defensively challenged Warriors. People still imagine the Suns as being that type of team. They've got a new coach though and they began a transformation to become a "slower" team (but tougher in the paint) with the addition of Shaq last season. As for the Hornets, they're capable of putting up plenty of points but they also are fully capable of playing excellent defense. They showed that in the fourth quarter last night, limiting the Warriors to just 19 points. Looking at some stats and we find that the UNDER is 30-23-1 the past the last 54 times that the Suns played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 195-199.5. During the same stretch, the Hornets have seen the UNDER go 14-7 when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Note that the Hornets typically slow things down against better teams as we find the UNDER at 47-36-3 the past couple of seasons when they faced a team with a winning record. Yes, the last game that the Hornets played here was extremely high-scoring. However, 40 points were scored in two overtime periods, so the final score is somewhat deceiving. That result notwithstanding, if we look back further we find the UNDER at 10-3 this millennium when the Hornets have traveled here. Look for the final score to prove lower than most are expecting once again with the UNDER improving to 4-1 the last five times that the Suns played the second of back to back games. *annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | CFB Side
double-dime bet305 South Florida -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 306 Cincinnati
Analysis:
After the losses of Bos Coll, Miami-Fla and Va Tech, the Big East's stature among the six BCS conferences has taken a hit (although at least it doesn't own a 1-9 record in BCS bowls like the ACC!). That being said, it's rather odd to look at the league's standings (eight teams) and see USF in seventh-place (1-2 in conference play), ahead of only 0-3 Syracuse. It's almost unbelievable to then check the AP poll and find that the lone Big East team in the top-25 is USF at No. 24 (the Bulls are 23rd in the BCS standings). So what's going on here? Are the Bulls (6-2 overall) really any good or are they just a figment of the pollsters and computers imagination. We won't get a definitive answer one way or the other if the Bulls win here but if they don't, it would be very fair to say the team is immensely overrated. Cincy head coach Brian Kelly won two Div-II titles at Grand Valley State, then led Central Michigan to a MAC title in '06 and last year win Big East coach-of-the-year honors in leading Cincy to a 10-3 mark, including a bowl win over Southern Miss. However, the Bearcats have had a terrible run of luck this year at the QB position. Senior Dustin Grutza hurt his ankle early on and remains out, as the Bearcats have used both junior Tony Pike and redshirt freshman Chazz Anderson at QB. Through all their troubles, the Bearcats entered their game at U Conn last Saturday at 5-1. However, the Bearcats committed SIX turnovers in a 40-16 loss. It was completely out of character for Cincinnati, which had committed just nine turnovers through its first six outings. Pike completed just 10-of-27 for 136 yards with one touchdown and interception, only making it through the first half before being replaced by Chazz Anderson, who finished the game with just 123 yards and two interceptions on 9-of-20 pass attempts. Pike is listed as questionable for this game with numbness in his non-throwing hand and Anderson is expected to start. The Cincy rushing attack leaves much to be desired, averaging 126.0 YPG on 3.8 YPC. The defense is solid, allowing 331.0 YPG (39th) and 22.0 PPG (46th) plus the Bearcats have always been a very good home team, going 37-13 SU this decade, including a 3-0 mark in '08. However, the Bulls are the more balanced and talented team. DE Selvie has been slowed by injury and has even missed some time this year (he's pretty healthy now) but USF still ranks 11th in total yards (268.3 YPG) and is tied-28th in scoring, allowing 18.4 PPG. The rushing 'D' shouldn't be worried with Cincy's poor ground attack, as it's allowed just 81.5 YPG (2.6 YPC). The passing 'D' allows just 50.4 percent completions and will give Anderson "all he wants." Let me note here, that last week the Cincy offense went 0-14 in third-down opportunities at U Conn. The best offensive player on the field is USF's QB Matt Grothe (67.1 percent / 14 TDs and 5 INTs). Despite losing at Louisville last Saturday, Grothe threw for 344 yards, connecting with 11 different receivers. He's also a dangerous runner, as the Bulls average 171.3 YPG(4.2 YPC) despite owning a "go-to" RB. The Bulls lost at home to the Bearcats last year 38-33 as five-point favorites, the final loss of what was a three-game losing streak (USF was 6-0 and ranked No. 2 in the first BCS standings prior to that losing streak). The Bulls may not be able to catch West Va in the Big East standings (Mountaineers are 2-0 and USF is 1-2) but a third straight nine-win season (and maybe even a 10 or 11 win season) is still a real possibility, IF they win here. Not bad for a program that didn't exist until 1996 and didn't become Div I-A until 2001. Big East Game of the Month 15* South Florida