10-31-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

FRIDAY
5-Dime Raptors

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | NHL Money Line
double-dime bet52 CHI (-120)Bodog vs 51 DAL
Analysis: I'm playing on CHICAGO. I won with the Stars in their last game but I'm going against them this evening. The Stars played at home last time against rival Minnesota. Tonight's game comes on the road though, where they've lost three of five games. The Stars were outscored by an 18 -9 margin in those five games, scoring two goals or less four times. Meanwhile, the Hawks have won three of five home games (3-0-2) while outscoring opponents by an 18-12 margin. Looking back to last season and we find the Hawks at 8-2 their last 10 games here.

The Hawks have also gone 3-1 in four home games against the Stars the past two seasons. This is arguably Chicago's most talented team during that span while the same cannot necessarily be said of the Stars, particularly with veteran defenseman Sergei Zubov still expected to be out of the lineup for another night.

The Hawks lost by a 3-2 score vs. the Wild last time out. That was their second straight loss, which means they should be extremely motivated for a victory tonight. A closer look shows that the loss to the Wild was the first time in seven games that the Hawks didn't earn at least a point. Additionally, they outshot the Wild by a 36-18 margin, so it wasn't like they played poorly. Look for them to "bounce back" with a big effort, improving to 4-1 their last five home games in this series. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | NBA Sides
triple-dime bet702 TOR -7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 701 GSW
Analysis:
The Warriors missed a great opportunity to beat one of the league's best teams (Hornets) on Wednesday. The Warriors 'exploded' out of the gates with a 34-point first quarter but couldn't hold the lead. Golden State was held to just 19 points in the 4th quarter as they let a one-point lead with 28 seconds left get away. Chris Paul had the go-ahead layup with 19.4 seconds to play and the Hornets went on to win, 108-103. Meanwhile, the Raptors debuted on Wednesday with an impressive 95-84 win at Philly, over a 76ers team which is expected to battle them in the Atlantic Division this year behind Boston. The Raptors can play some 'D' with Bosh healthy and playing alongside of Jermaine O'Neal, who was obtained from the Pacers this summer as part of a six-player trade. It showed the other night, as the Raptors held the 76ers to 34.5 percent from the floor, including 5-of-20 from three-point range. Three-point shooting is something the Raptors know a little about, as Kapono made 48.3 percent of his threes last year, Parker connected on 43.8 percent of his and Calderon (now the team's full-time PG with TJ Ford gone) made 42.9 percent of his threes. Toronto's win at Philly was impressive, as Bosh led the way with 27 points and 11 rebounds and O'Neal, who looks healthy after playing in just 42 games last season due to a torn knee ligament, scored 17 points with eight rebounds. Calderon had 13 point with seven assists and the team made 10-of-16 from behind the three-point arc (so what else is new?). Toronto won by 11, despite the fact that Parker and Bargnani shot a combined 3-of-15. The Warriors saw Stephen Jackson score 26 points against the Hornets on Wednesday but he a was forced to play all 48 minutes (he's not young anymore). With Davis gone, Golden State's PG by committee doesn't figure to work against Calderon, who is a "star in the making." Besides Davis, the Warriors also lost Pietrus (a terrific defender on the perimeter) and Barnes (a quality role player up front). Forward Al Harrington publicly requested a trade on Tuesday complaining about his lack of playing time, but played on Wednesday (42 minutes worth, by the way) going 5-of-17 and finishing with 13 points. This could be a long year for the Warriors, while I expect it to be a very good year for the Raptors. NBA Game of the Month 20* Tor Raptors.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | NBA Total
double-dime bet704 PHI / 703 NYK Under 217.5 Bookmaker
Analysis:
I believe this total is an over-reaction to New York's 120-115 win over Miami on Wednesday. That was a sloppily played game between two teams "going nowhere," as the teams combined to shoot 70 FTs and made 52. The Knicks shot 48.2 percent from the floor and I expect that Philadelphia, somewhat embarrassed by its play in a home-opening loss to the Raptors (95-84), will play much better tonight. Of course, I expect the 76ers to shoot better than their 34.5 percent against Toronto (5-of-20 from behind the three-point arc) but I still don't see this game hitting the 'heights' of this total. Are the Knicks really capable of running new coach Mike D?Antoni?s up-tempo offense? I'll need to see more that one game against the pathetic Heat to buy into that concept. Fabulous Friday Total on NYK/Phi 15* Under.

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

Friday
3* Philly-8
3* Golden State+7
3* Orlando-7.5

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS
BLOWOUT GAME OF MONTH

I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks won their opener while the 76'ers lost theirs. Those results have helped us in a couple of different ways here. For starters, we're getting a much more reasonable line than we would have if New York had lost and Philly had won. Note that the line has also come down from it's opener. Additionally, with five of their next seven games on the road, the 76'ers should be extremely motivated to avoid going 0-2. Remember, this is a team which made the playoffs last season and which still has very high hopes for this year, particularly with the addition of Elton Brand. While the Knicks should improve under D'Antoni, let's not over-react to one home win over Miami. Keep in mind that this is still a team which is 4-16 its last 20 road games and 22-60 on the road the past two seasons overall. Additionally, note that the Knicks are just 11-20-1 ATS (8-24 SU) against division opponents during that time. Not surprisingly, the 76'ers are 9-2 their last 11 meetings against the Knicks. They're also a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that they were a host in this series. Note that the last six of those victories ALL came by double-digits. The 76'ers are 30-18 ATS off a double-digit loss the last two years and I look for them to bounce back and continue their dominance in this series. *Blowout GOM
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[Mr. IWS]

dr bob

2 Star Selection
Golden State (+7) over TORONTO
31-Oct-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
Toronto opened the season with a seemingly impressive win at Philadelphia as a 5 point dog, but that victory was the result of variance in 3-point shooting, as the Raptors made 10 of 16 from long range while Philly only knocked down 5 of 20 from beyond the arc. Had each player made his career percentage on 3-pointers then Toronto would have lost by 4 points, which is exactly what my ratings had predicted for that game. Golden State, meanwhile, played pretty well in a 5 point loss as a 7 point dog against New Orleans in their opener and the Warriors apply to a very strong 40-8-3 ATS subset of a 70-28-3 ATS early season angle. Toronto, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29-73-4 ATS home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win. The Warriors aren’t going to be quite as good this year, as the net of losing Baron Davis and Monta Ellis (injured) and adding Corey Maggette is about -2 ½ points. However, the Warriors still look like an average NBA team and they still have their emotionial leading inStephen Jackson, who usually gets his team fired up after a loss. The Warriors are 62-64-2 ATS in all games with Jackson playing, but they are better after a loss (30-21 ATS) than they are after a win (30-43-2 ATS) thanks to Jackson’s personality. Golden State is 29-9 straight up when rested after a loss with Jackson and 18-7 ATS in those games when not favored by more than 6 points. My ratings favor Toronto by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Golden State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +8 or more.
2-Stars at +7 or more, 3-Stars at +8.

4 Star Selection
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over New York
31-Oct-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
The 76ers are coming off an opening night upset loss to Toronto, but random 3-point shooting variance was the reason for that outcome (see the Golden State-Toronto analysis) and Philadelphia applies to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator in addition to a 35-3 ATS subset of a 156-86-2 ATS all season situation. My ratings favor Philadelphia by 8 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Philadelphia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less, for 3-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points, and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
4-Stars at -8 or less, 3-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9 and 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.

3 Star Selection
Orlando (-7 ½) over MEMPHIS
31-Oct-08 05:05 PM Pacific Time
Orlando made a living last season by beating up on bad teams and I expect that trend to continue tonight, as the Magic rebound from their opening game loss to Atlanta. The Magic were 26-8 ATS last season after a loss and coach Stan Van Gundy’s teams are 70-44-2 ATS after a loss in his coaching career. Van Gundy also makes a habit of beating the teams that he’s supposed to beat, as his teams are 48-15-4 ATS as a favorite or pick against a team with a win percentage of less than .444, including 17-6-1 ATS last season with the Magic. In addition to the Van Gundy coaching trends, the Magic apply to a very strong 52-6-1 ATS early season indicator while Memphis applies to a negative 11-45-1 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Orlando by 7 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Orlando in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars at -7 ½ or -8 points and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ points.
3-Stars at -8 or less, 4-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2.

3 Star Selection
Denver (-2) over L.A. CLIPPERS
31-Oct-08 07:35 PM Pacific Time
The Clippers have Baron Davis and little else to work with and they appear to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference again this season. Denver isn’t likely to be as good as they were last season, but the suspension of the grossly overrated Carmelo Anthony gives us some line value. The Nuggets played about 2 ½ points better per 48 minutes with Anthony on the bench than they did when he was in the game last season and that’s a pattern that has existed since he entered the league. Anthony is an above average offensive player, but the Nuggets’ defense is 5 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor than when he’s not. Denver nearly beat the Jazz in Utah without Anthony in their opener and they should be a bad Clippers team tonight given that they apply to a 70-28-3 ATS early season indicator. My ratings favor Denver by 2 ½ points in this game and I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 2-Stars at -2 ½ or -3 points.
3-Stars at -2 or less, 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or -3.