11-2-08

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL


3* Green Bay Packers+5
3* Oakland Raiders+3
3* St. Louis/Arizona 'under' 48
3* Indianapolis Colts-5
1* Cincinnati Bengals+8
1* Minnesota Vikings-4

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
SUNDAY NIGHT COLLEGE GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with CENTRAL FLORIDA. Everyone saw the Knights get blown out on National TV last Sunday. That result has provided us with some additional line value for tonight's game. It should also provide plenty of motivation for the Knights, as they were embarrassed and don't want to same thing to happen on National TV for the second straight week. Last week's game came on the road vs. an explosive Tulsa team. It should be noted that UCF actually led at halftime and held the Golden Hurricane well below their season average in total yards and points. Tonight's game comes at home where the Knights are 2-1 on the season. The lone loss came vs. South Florida and the Knights covered in that game, losing by seven as 14 point underdogs. Looking back further and we find the Knights at an impressive 8-1 their last nine home games. While the Knights are outscoring opponents by a 24-16 margin here at home, the Pirates are being outscored by a 30 to 24 margin on the road. They're already 0-3 ATS when listed as road favorites this season and are 1-5 ATS since 2006 as favorites of six points or less. While the Pirates do have the advantage of having had a bye last week, it's worth noting that they're just 11-18 ATS their last 29 lined games after a bye week. In addition to being motivated to avoid another embarrassing loss on National TV, the Knights will be desperately trying to get back in the Conference USA East race. A loss here and they are done but a win and they're right back in the thick of things. Additionally, the Knights have payback on their minds after suffering a tough loss at East Carolina last season. A closer look at the stats from that game shows that the Knights ran 90 plays to the Pirates 64. The Knights also had a significant edge in first downs (29-16) and time of possession, while outgaining the Pirates by a whopping 495 to 370 margin in total yards. That game was at East Carolina, yet UCF was favored by four. Now, the Knights are playing a "must win" game at home and getting points. I feel that provides us with excellent value and I'm backing the revenge-minded home dog. *NCAA Sunday Night GOY

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NFC GAME OF WEEK

I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. Seneca Wallace is expected to get his third straight start for the Seahawks. In my opinion, that's not as big a negative as the majority of the betting public believes. While they were admittedly somewhat fortunate to cover at Tampa Bay two weeks ago, the Seahawks were terrific with Wallace leading the show at San Francisco last week. Wallace didn't turn the ball over and he was 15-of-25 for 222 yards with a pair of touchdowns. The Seahawks were listed as underdogs, yet won by a score of 34-15. Coach Holmgren had this to say: "I told Seneca, I told our receivers, 'Hey, look it, instead of being so careful about everything and almost calling the game defensively, we are going to kind of let it go a little bit. Everyone's getting paid in the room. So you have a responsibility, too. And let's play' and they responded to that. I suspect we will keep doing that." Yes, the Eagles are playing well and yes they are off back to back SU and ATS victories. However, those who watched those games know that the Eagles didn't cover until the final couple of minutes in each of those games and that both games were much closer than indicated by the final scores. Prior to that, the Eagles had gone 0-2 SU/ATS. I believe that this will prove to be a very difficult scheduling spot. Not only will the Eagles be returning to the West Coast for the second time in three games but they've also got a huge divisional Sunday Night showdown vs. the defending Super Bowl champion Giants on deck. The Seahawks, 4-1 their last five against teams from the NFC East, are still 15-6 their last 21 home games and two of those losses came by just a field goal. The Seahawks are also 11-6 ATS the last 17 times they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Look for the Seahawks to build momentum from last week's victory as they give the Eagles all they can handle and earn at least the cover. *NFC GO

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS


NON CONFERECE GAME OF MONTH

I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. The Falcons have exceeded expectations, as few expected them to have a winning record (4-3) through the first eight weeks of the regular season. Give them credit for that. That being said, I don't feel that they're ready to be laying points on the road. A closer look shows that they're 3-0 at home (two of the wins came against Detroit and KC and the other was by 2 points) while just 1-3 on the road. Note that the lone road win came by just three points. In their four road games, they've been outscored by a 24.7 to 14.7 margin, while being outgained by an average of 388 total yards to 301. They're coming off a hard-fought physical loss vs. the Eagles and are now flying across the country to play their second consecutive road game. While the bettors are beginning to embrace the Falcons, the betting public is really down on the Raiders. That's just fine, as that perception is providing us with excellent line value. It's true that the Raiders have struggled on the road. Like the Falcons, they're 1-3 on the road. Road trips are often difficult for the Raiders though, as they had to cross time zones for all four of those games. They've actually been quite good at home though. Their three home games all came against teams which are better than the Falcons, in my opinion. They did struggle in their opening game against Denver. However, they followed that up by nearly knocking off San Diego. While they did lose that game in the end, they dominated much of the way. Then, in their most recent game here, they knocked off Brett Favre and the Jets. With the possible exception of a Week 13 game vs. the Chiefs, who will be playing with "revenge," this represents the Raiders most winnable game on the rest of the schedule. The Raiders know they've been listed as home underdogs and I expect them to take that personally. While I'll gladly take the points, I look for the Raiders to deliver a highly motivated effort and look for them to score the outright victory. *Non-Conf GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NON CONFERENCE TOTAL OF YEAR

I'm playing on Tennessee and Green Bay to finish UNDER the number. These teams both saw their last game finish above the total. Those results have helped provide us with a very generous number for this afternoon's game. While Green Bay's defense has only been "average" (allowing 22.7 points per game and 321 yards per game) I believe that the Packers are better defensively than is indicated by their stats. Note that their numbers are improving as they allowed 17 points two games ago and then held the Colts to just 14 last time out. The Packers have now held 10 straight opponents to 30 points or less and that includes games against the likes of last year's Giants and Cowboys. Note that the Packers are coming off a bye and that extra week of rest should allow them to get cornerback Al Harris and/or safety Atari Bigby back from injury. Meanwhile, Tennessee comes in allowing a mere 12.4 points per game. That's the best mark in the entire league. The Titans are coming off a Monday night victory over the Colts. That's worth noting as they've seen the UNDER go 2-0 the previous two seasons when coming off a Monday night game. At 33.7 per game, the Titans have the second most rushing attempts in the entire league. As you know, frequent rushing attempts help to keep the clock moving. Look for a heavy dose of the run from both teams as this well-played defensive affairs proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Non Conference TOY

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

25 Dime - Arizona (buy the 1/2-point and lay just 3 points)

10-Dime 6-point Teaser- Giants/Eagles

FREE - 2-team teaser - Patriots and Over

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
AFC EAST GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with the NEW YORK JETS. I successfully played against the Bills last week and feel that they're over-valued again this week. The Bills lost 25-16 at Miami last week. They did earn a solid win vs. a good San Diego team in their previous game. However, it should be noted that they were coming off a bye while catching the West Coast based Chargers off a big game vs. New England and playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. The loss to the Dolphins was a tough one as the Bills made some key mistakes and blew a big lead. Even coach Dick Jauron admitted that it's tough not to dwell on that type of loss. He was quoted as saying: "It's hard when you lose to leave it and let it go regardless of what's coming up." In addition to having to overcome a difficult loss, the Bills are dealing with some key injuries. Defensive end Aaron Schobel (foot) and right guard Brad Butler (knee) are both out. More importantly, star receiver Josh Reed will be out. Reed, second on the team in receiving, is a favorite target on 3rd down and will definitely be missed. Entering this week, Reed was tied for 16th in the AFC with eight catches for 116 yards on third down. The Jets are 3-1 their last four games and the lone loss came by just a field goal. They lost by just three points here last season while winning by eight here in 2006. While many are beginning to get down on Brett Favre due to some recent interceptions, the future hall-of- famer is still completing 68.5 percent of his passes and has 15 touchdown passes. Both those marks are the second best in the entire league. The Jets are running the ball well recently, with 377 rushing yards the past two games. They've also been great all season at stopping the run, allowing an average of only 82.6 rushing yards per game. That's the fifth best mark in the league and third best in the AFC. Look for the Jets to earn at least the cover and don't be surprised if there's a 3-way tie on top of the AFC East by the end of the day. *AFC East GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Ness


Las Vegas Insider

Vikings


20* Division GOY

Browns


Weekend Wipeout Winner

Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
3*Washington -2.5 or less
Strong opinion - Cinn +7 or more

[Mr. IWS]

Root today...

Chairman- Cowboys
Millionaire- Rams
Money Maker- Bengals
No Limit- Seahawks
Insiders Circle- Raiders
Billionaire- Packers
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's NFL ROADKILL WINNER (6-0 THIS YEAR).
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over New England. Last week, Indy lost 31-21 to the Titans (the Colts 2nd straight defeat), which dropped its overall record to 3-4. Surprisingly, New England has survived just fine without QB Tom Brady, and sits atop the AFC East with a 5-2 record. But the oddsmakers have installed Peyton Manning & Co. as a hefty favorite, and this game is a classic trap, as it looks quite easy to bet on New England. But looks are often deceiving. Indeed, at Game 5 of the season forward, one would win 67% of the time if one played on any favorite of more than 3 points off a loss, provided that favorite had a win percentage at least .130 WORSE than its foe, and its foe was off a win. Look for the Colts to blow out the Patriots. NFL Roadkill on Indianapolis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other winners on Sunday, including my 3-Game Package and my Non-Conference Game of the Month out of a 23-2 ATS System.

[Mr. IWS]

Private Players of Pittsburgh

4 Tenn
3 Eagles
3 New England