11-3-08 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

11-03-2008, 05:52 PM

BEN BURNS
NFL BEST BET

I'm playing on the Steelers and Redskins to finish UNDER the number. Monday night games have been sailing above the total this season and not surprisingly the majority of the betting public favors the 'over' again this evening. That's helped keep tonight's number relatively generous. "Generous" may sound like a funny term for an over/under number in the 30s. However, this number could easily be closer to 34 if these teams were meeting on a Sunday afternoon. That's because both defenses are excellent. Washington comes in allowing 18.7 points per game and just 17.7 at home. The Redskins have been particularly stingy lately, allowing an average of only 15.7 points through their past three games. During that 3-game stretch, opponents are managing a mere 236.7 yards of offense per game. For the season, the Skins are limiting opponents to only 249.7 yards per game here at home. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 3-1 in their games here and 5-1 in their six games played on grass overall. The Skins have faced several strong offensive teams too, including Dallas, Arizona, Philly, New Orleans and the Giants. Remarkably, Pittsburgh's defensive stats are even better. The Steelers are allowing only 15.7 points per game, including just 13 per game on the road. Opponents are managing only 236 yards of offense against them (best in the NFL!) including a mere 223 in their road games. Both teams like to run the ball regularly, which helps to keep the clock moving. This is particularly true of Washington. The Redskins 33.5 rushing attempts per game is the most in the NFC and third most in the league. The Steelers, listed as small underdogs, have seen the UNDER go 5-2 the last seven times they were listed as underdogs and 9-3 their last 12 in that role. Looking back a number of years and we find the UNDER at 17-11-1 when they've played on Monday Night. During the same stretch, the Skins have seen the UNDER go 11-5-1 when playing under the Monday Night spotlight. Look for a heavy dose of the run from both teams as this hard-hitting defensive affair proves lower-scoring that most are expecting. *Best Bet

BEN BURNS
BLUE CHIP NBA "TOTAL" BLOWOUT

I'm playing on the Warriors and Grizzlies to finish UNDER the number. The Warriors remain a high-scoring up-tempo team. They've topped the 100 point mark in each of their first three games, two of which finished above the total. However, all three of those games came against teams which were capable of trading points with them. Tonight, the Warriors will face an offensively-challenged team which knows it will need to slow them down in order to compete. The Grizzlies are averaging only 81 points themselves and their first three games have averaged a mere 168.3 combined points. A big part of their problem is that they can't score from the outside, going just 6-of-32 on 3-pointers through their first three games. In addition to having trouble scoring, the Grizzlies have played solid defense thus far. They've held all three opponents to double-digits and in their lone home game, the Grizzlies limited the Magic to a mere 84 points. Orlando would go on to score 121 the following night. Not surprisingly, all three Memphis games have fallen below the total. Note that they've gotten tougher in the paint with the addition of Pau Gasol's younger brother, Marc. The younger Gasol is a 7-foot-1, 280-pound center who has already been hanging tough with the likes of Yao Ming and Dwight Howard. He's averaging more than a block a game while averaging nearly double-digits in rebounds. Tonight's total has already climbed from it's opening number and may even go higher. I feel that is giving us excellent value. The Warriors have been a high-scoring team for years but have still seen the UNDER go 40-28 (59%) the last 68 times they played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 195 to 199.5. During the same stretch, the Grizzlies have seen the UNDER go 19-12 (61%) in home games with totals in the same range. The last three meetings in this series have all fallen below the total and I look for this evening's game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again. *Blue Chip

PERSONAL NBA FAVORITE

I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers are off to a rather disappointing 1-2 start. Note that the lone victory was a 29 point rout. Keep in mind that this was a team that made the playoffs last season and then signed Elton Brand to make them significantly stronger. With four of their next five games coming on the road, the 76ers would badly like to right the ship with another blowout victory. The Kings should provide the perfect "victim." At 0-3, Sacramento is a mess right now. They've got one quality player (Kevin Martin) currently in the lineup and not a whole lot else. Note that Martin has struggled in two of three games, too. The Kings began the season with a loss to a weak Minnesota team. They've followed that up by getting crushed by 26 points at Miami and 22 points at Orlando. This is the final game of their 4-game road trip and it should be easy for them to get caught looking ahead to the return trip home. Regardless of whether that proves to be the case, with Brad Miller still serving a suspension, the Kings will have no answer in the paint for Brand, Dalembert and co. Note that Philly leads the league in rebounds and are fifth in the league in points in the paint. The 76ers were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 point range four times the past couple of seasons. They won all four of those games, going 3-1 against the number. With their significant advantage in the paint, I look for the 76ers to record another convincing victory tonight. *Personal Favorite