11-4-08

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' Tuesday GAME OF THE YEAR (6-1 L7 NCAA!)
I'm taking the points with MIAMI OHIO. This line is very high based in large part on last week's results. Buffalo won by double-digits while Miami lost by double-digits. It's important not to over-react to one week though and I believe that tonight's line is extremely generous. The Bulls are a much better team than they used to be. After going a combined 7-51 from 2002- 2006, they jumped all the way up to 5-7 last season. This year, they come in at 4-4. Clearly, this is a team which is finally moving in the right direction. That being said, I don't feel that the Bulls are ready to be laying more than a touchdown against a team which has dominated them and which still has arguably more talent than they do. Let's take a look at Buffalo's recent games. The Bulls did win by 13 at Ohio last week. However, that game could have easily been closer as the Bulls benefited from numerous turnovers and the Bobcats actually held an edge in total yards. Additionally, note that the Bobcats are just 1-7 vs. 1-A opponents. Prior to that game, the Bulls had gone just 2-4 their previous six games. The two victories came against Army and Temple and the Bulls won those games by just two and three points. While it's clearly been a disappointing season, don't be fooled by the Red Hawks' poor record. This is still a very talented team. The Redhawks returned 17 starters from last season's team and coming into this season were expected to contend for the Mac East title. While they did play poorly last week, note that they won on the road vs. a pretty good Bowling Green team the previous week. While the odds are admittedly stacked pretty high against them, the Redhawks still haven't written off the Mac East title. However, they know that they'll be eliminated with a loss here. That makes this truly a must win game. Miami head coach Shane Montgomery had this to say: "Until we're mathematically eliminated, we've got a lot to play for. Even though we're 1-3 in the conference, not many of the teams in the East are a lot better than us. We've got to take it one game at a time and take care of ourselves. If we don't win next Tuesday, then we won't have any chance. We want to show everyone that we're a much better football team than the one they saw against Kent State." The Redhawks have proven they know how to win on the road at this time of year, going 6-2 in November road games the past four seasons. They're also a perfect 10-0 against the Bulls, outscoring them by an average score of 37-12. Last year's game was decided by just a field goal and I expect this one to come down to the wire once again. *Tuesday Night GOY

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
TOTAL OF WEEK

I'm playing on the Suns and Nets to finish UNDER the total. Everyone still thinks of the Suns as an extremely high-scoring team. The same team that averaged 110 points per game last season. That perception has been strengthened in the mind's of the betting public with the Suns having seen each of their first three games finish above the total. However, while the Suns are still certainly capable of putting up big numbers, I don't expect them to come close to matching last year's stats. For starters, high-tempo coach D'antoni is gone to New York. Additionally, having Shaq in there slows the Suns down, while making them tougher defensively in the paint. A closer look shows that Phoenix games are still averaging only 202.4 points per game through the first three games. Meanwhile, New Jersey has failed to score triple-digits yet and has seen both its games stay below the total with those games averaging only 191 combined points. Of course, without long-time stars Kidd and Jefferson around anymore, the Nets aren't the same team we've come to know. The Nets have tried to get bigger and tougher in the middle and hope to be a better defensive team this season. You may recall a high-scoring and memorable game between these teams a couple of years ago that finished with a score of 160-157. However, that went to double overtime and that's been the only series meeting that finished above the total in recent memory. In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 the last six series meetings. Look for the Nets to have some success slowing down the Suns here and for the final combined score to again prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Total of the Week

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

TUESDAY

10 Dime - Miami-Ohio

FREE - Miami-O/Buffalo Over

[Mr. IWS]

Big al

November 4 is:

San Jose Sharks over Minnesota Wild

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

BUFFALO (-8.5) 28 Miami Ohio 24
04:30 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-04 - Stats Matchup
Miami-Ohio applies to a very good 22-1 ATS subset of a 63-18-1 ATS situation tonight, but switching quarterbacks has hurt the Redhawks, as freshman Clay Belton has not been nearly as effective as Daniel Raudabaugh. Belton has averaged only 4.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback while Raudabaugh is only 0.7 yppp worse than average. The Redhawks have received a lift offensively with freshman running back J.R. Taylor, who has run for 240 yards on just 38 carries the last two weeks in place of injured Thomas Merriweather, who was averaging just 4.0 ypr when he sprained his ankle. Merriweather is scheduled to play tonight, which actually hurts Miami’s cause since it takes carries away from Taylor. After making all the adjustments my math favors Buffalo by 13 points in this game. However, the situation favoring Miami-Ohio is much more significant than the line value favoring Buffalo (the math would give Buffalo a 54.7% chance of covering at -8 ½ while the situation has a 60% chance of covering at a fair line). I’ll lean with Miami-Ohio plus the points based on the strong situation.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al has

3 star new jersey nets

Opinion buffalo in CFB

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (3-0 weekend with Insiders!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Pho Suns at 7:35 ET. The Suns are trying the re-invent themselves from a team which wanted to shoot every seven seconds to one running a more set offense under new head coach Terry Porter. Porter also wants to the Suns play better defense this year and only time will tell. Meanwhile, the Nets missed the playoffs last year for the first time in seven years and opened this season without Jason Kidd (traded to Dallas last season) or Richard Jefferson (now with the Bucks), two of the team's "Big Three." Vince Carter is the only player remaining from that trio and he's battling a hand injury which may limit his minutes tonight. Devin Harris (the key player in the Kidd trade) will be counted on the step up this year for New Jersey but the Nets can't afford for him to play like he did in the team's last game, making just 3-of-12 shots in a home loss to the Warriors. Yi Jianlian (obtained from Milwaukee and a first-round pick LY) scored 17 points as New Jersey won at Washington to open the season but went scoreless (0-for-4 on FGs) vs the Warriors. The Suns are led by Stoudemire (22.0-11.0), Nash (19.0-9.7 APG) and Shaq (13.0-9.1) plus five other quality players complete their eight-man rotation. Barnes, Bell, Diaw, Hill and Barbosa are all scoring rom 7.0-12.0 PPG, giving the Suns a major edge in talent and depth over the Nets. Phoenix (through three games) is the NBA's top-shooting club (52.8 percent) and went an NBA-best 24-6 SU against the East last season. Nothing new here. Las Vegas Insider Pho Suns.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* MAC Showdown (2-0 L2 Tuesdays in the MAC)
My 15* MAC Showdown at 7:30 ET. The MAC West features 8-0 Ball State (16th in the AP poll and 17th in the current BCS standings), two-time defending league champ Central Michigan (5-0 in conference play) plus Western Michigan (5-1) and Northern Illinois (4-1) in league play. In comparison, the co-leaders in the East division are Akron and Buffalo at 2-2. I took the Bulls last Tuesday at Ohio and predicted that they have an excellent opportunity to win the East division of the MAC this season in Turner Gill's third season. He took over a Buffalo program in 2006 which had gone 5-41 the previous four seasons. He struggled to a 2-10 mark in his first year but led the Bulls to a 5-7 mark in '07, winning MAC coach-of-year honors. The Bulls are now 4-4 overall this year and have been competitive in every game except their visit to Missouri (42-21), which wasn't that bad by the way. They hung tough all game at Pitt (eventually losing 27-16 but covering), lost at Central Michigan just 27-25 and blew a two TD lead at home to Western Michigan, before losing in OT (34-28). Miami-Ohio had high expectations this year. The RedHawks finished just 6-7 in 2007 but did qualify for the MAC title game (won tie-breaker at 4-2 in the East), losing 35-10 to Central Michigan. However, with 17 starters returning, were favored by many to win the East title again this year. The RedHawks opened their season at home to Vandy and many thought they were set to beat their SEC opponents but the 'Dores won 34-13 and not much has gone right for them since. Miami enters this game 2-6 overall (1-3 in the MAC), beating only Charleston Southern and picking up a road win at Bowling Green (the school's best game of the season). Neither Raudabaugh nor Belton (a redshirt freshman) have gotten the job done at QB plus the running game averages 112.8 YPG and just 3.3 YPC. The defense has allowed a middle-of-the-pack 344.3 YPG but Miami has allowed 30.1 PPG, a total which ranks them 91st. The defense has just 10 takeaways with the offense contributing 18 giveaways (not a good ratio). The Bulls were happy to see the return of RB James Starks (toe) last week, as he ran for 185 yards with two TDs against the Bobcats. In his five full games this year, he's averaged 136.0 YPG (had 1,130 YR last year with 12 TDs). QB Drew Willy continues his excellent play. He had a 15-to-6 ratio last year and this year has already thrown 15 TD passes with only four INTs in 257 attempts. The series history in this matchup is all Miami-O (10-0) but it's my belief that the Bulls are ready for a break through season. A win here gets them to 5-4 (3-2 in the MAC) and sets them up for a showdown at Akron (2-2 in the MAC, pending a game tomorrow at home vs Toledo) in nine days. Tonight's game is televised on ESPN2, marking the first-ever TV game from UB Stadium. The Bulls will get that win and it will come by at least two TDs. MAC Showdown 15* Buffalo.

Good Luck...Larry