11-5-08

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

BALL ST. (-9.5) 28 Northern Ill 19
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-05 - Stats Matchup
Ball State is a perfect 8-0 straight up this season and 7-1 ATS, but the Cardinals’ best win was over a mediocre Navy squad when star WR Dante Love was still catching Nate Davis’ passes. Davis and Love had a special connection, as they racked up 460 yards on 32 passes intended for Love (28 of them were caught). Davis was one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the nation before Love was injured midway through the Indiana game in week 4, but Davis has been just mediocre without Love, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average team. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, is much better offensively now that starting quarterback Chandler Harnish is back under center and the Huskies are the MAC’s best defensive team – allowing just 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. My math model only favors Ball State by 4 ½ points after making the appropriate adjustments, but the Cardinals apply to an 85-31-3 ATS late season momentum situation that I’d hate to buck. I’ll pass on this game.


AKRON (-4.5) 32 Toledo 22
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-05 - Stats Matchup
Akron has the advantage on both sides of the ball in this contest and the Zips qualify in a 138-71-8 ATS situation that is 22-6 ATS for teams coming off a bye. Akron is 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Zips have a 0.3 yppl advantage over a pretty solid Toledo defense that rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Akron also has the edge when the Rockets have the ball, as Toledo rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively while the Zips are at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively. Akron should be favored by 7 points in this game, the general situation is favorable and Toledo is just 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 lined road games. I’ll consider Akron a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

WEDNESDAY
5 Dime - Ball State



FREE - Akron

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al McMordie
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA) - Nov 5, 2008 8:05 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: -3.5/-117 San Antonio Spurs
Big Al's FREE Wednesday Night B-L-O-W-O-U-T Winner.
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on San Antonio over Minnesota. The Spurs are an awful (for them) 0-3 to start the season, and I've talked often about how SuperManu Ginobili is one of the best, and most valuable players in the league -- right up there with Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant. It's strange, though, that the oddsmakers don't recognize that, and don't lower San Antonio's power rating the appropriate amount when he's sidelined. That, more than anything else, explains the Spurs poor 4-16 ATS run without the Argentine superstar on the court. Indeed, San Antonio has been able to overcome injuries to Duncan or Tony Parker, but not Ginobili. However, I'm NOT going to go against the Spurs on Wednesday Night. They'll be taking on a very beatable team in the T-Wolves, and this game is a step down in class after playing Phoenix, Portland and Dallas to open the season. The Spurs actually only played one bad game -- the one last night -- and could've defeated Portland had Michael Finley's 8-foot sideline jumper found the bottom of the net. Look for San Antonio's championship mettle to be the difference tonight. Lay the small number with the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

I'm taking the points with TOLEDO. Its been a disappointing season for the Rockets. They're currently 2-6 and coach Tom Amstutz will be resigning at the end of the season. However, they're a more talented team than their record indicates and I expect the players to rally behind their coach tonight. Keep in mind that both the Rockets' victories came on the road. Todelo destroyed Eastern Michigan and then followed it up by winning at Michigan. While the Wolverines are having a down year, that is still a very impressive feat. Additionally, the Rockets lost their last game by a single point vs. Central Michigan and they also lost a game by a single point vs. a very good Fresno State team. In other words, they were just a couple of plays away from a 4-4 record. They still have a shot at finishing the season with a 500 record. While that may be unrealistic, its still their goal and gives them something to play for. While the Rockets come in well-rested, the Zips come in over-rested. Indeed, they've had an 18-day layoff between games. When asked about the layoff, Akron coach J.D. Brookhart admitted: "I've never been a part of anything like this. I hope we're doing the right things. We've been out recruiting for five days." Prior to their extended break, Akron had played four straight games which were all decided by a touchdown or less and three of them were decided by four points or less. While the Zips did win their last game, we find them at just 1-6 SU (0-6-1 ATS) the last seven times they were coming off a win over a conference opponent. The line has already climbed from its opener and I feel we're getting excellent value with the visitors, who have long dominated this series. *Main Event






BEN BURNS
NBA BEST BET

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. As you know, Boston is the "better" team in this matchup. However, the better team doesn't always cover the spread and in this case, the scheduling situation strongly favors the home dog. While the Thunder had last night off, the Celtics were involved in an extremely hard fought game at Houston. Off that big win, it should be easy for the defending champs to overlook the lowly Thunder. While the Celtics don't have much of a reason to get excited here (other than perhaps Ray Allen) this is a big game for Oklahoma City. The new fans will be getting a chance to see the league champions and the Thunder badly want to show them that they can compete. Remember, this isn't an expansion team. This was a Sonics team that was really making strides and which has some quality young players, like last year's Rookie of the Year, Kevin Durant. The Thunder have been playing strong defense, which should serve them well when trying to hang within a large number. Through three games, they're allowing an average of only 90.7 points and none of their opponents have reached triple-digits. The Sonics won two of their last three home meetings with the Celtics and they covered the spread (8 point loss as 10 point underdogs) in the other game. Having played the Celtics tough in that most recent game and coming in off a victory, the Thunder should have some confidence here. Look for the former Sonics to give another inspired effort here as they do enough to (at least) cover the generous number. *Best Bet









BEN BURNS
NBA PERSONAL FAVORITE

I'm laying the points with SACRAMENTO. I played against the Kings in their last game and they got crushed by Philadelphia. However, tonight's game is significantly more favorable for them for several reasons. For starters, the game vs. the 76ers was the final game of an Eastern road trip. The Kings are now back at the Arco Arena where they've been an excellent team for many years. Note that this is their home opener and that they haven't lost to the Grizzlies here in a decade. It's true that the Kings don't have much in terms of proven talent these days. However, Memphis is one of the few teams that they actually match up well against. While Memphis' new center Marc Gasol has been impressive thus far, I expect Sacramento's Kevin Martin to be the best player on the floor tonight. Note that Martin averaged 32.7 points in three games against the Grizzlies last season. While the Kings still don't have Miller back (he'll return from suspension next game) they have been getting solid play from a pair of young players who have been filling in for him. Rookie Jason Thompson is averaging better than 14 points a game while shooting 62.5 percent from the field. He's also contributing seven rebounds per game. Meanwhile, second-year center Spencer Hawes is averaging 9.3 boards per game while scoring 12.5 points. The Grizzlies do come in off an impressive 90-79 win over Golden State. That was at Memphis though and we find them at 3-14 (6-11 ATS) the last 17 times that they were coming off a double-digit victory. Look for the Kings to be the "hungrier" team as they get energized by the home crowd and move to 20-0 the last 20 times they were a host in this series. *Personal Favori

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Suns
Millionaire- TWolves

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* MAC Game of the Year (4-0 run with MAC games!)
My 20* play is on Akron at 8:00 ET. What a strange schedule both of these MAC teams have this year. The Rockets haven't played since October 25 (a 10-day layoff) while incredibly, the Zips have had a 17-day rest since their last game (October 18). As I pointed out last night with Buffalo (a 37-17 winner!), the MAC West is 'loaded' while the East owns just one winning team (Bulls are now 5-4 overall and 3-2 in MAC play). The Zips come in 4-4 overall and 2-2 in league play and believe it or not, have yet to win a home game (0-3)! I'll start with the Rockets. They enter just 2-6 (1-3 in the MAC) on the season and while the team won 13-10 at "The Big House" on October 11, as the season progresses, beating the pathetic Wolverines in '08 is hardly noteworthy. Toledo followed that win by getting routed at Northern Illinois 38-7 and then lost a very tough home game to Central Michigan (24-23) in its most recent outing. The Rockets suspended DT Sean Williamson prior to the CMU game for violating team rules, which is hardly a sign that things are going smoothly, as Williamson was the team's defensive captain. In the 10-day layoff since that game, head coach Tom Amstutz (in his eighth year at the school) has resigned, or should I say was forced to resign? He'll remain until the end of the season but this can't be a good thing. I'm not ready to believe the Rockets will rally behind their departing coach, as the team's inconsistency is a main reason Amstutz is departing in the first place! QB Opelt is nursing a leg injury and while he's got a solid completion percentage (61.7) and has thrown only three INTs on the year, he has just eight TD passes and has averaged only 185.0 YPG. His top-two receivers, Stephen Williams (51) and Nick Moore (49), own YPC averages of 9.5 and 9.8, respectively. RBs Collins (557 YR / 6.5 YPC) and Williams (408 YR / 4.3 YPC) have decent numbers but the team is gaining a modest 126.4 YPG on the ground for the year. Toledo is averaging 21.3 PPG for the season (not very good) but since losing a 55-54 double-OT game at home to Fresno State on September 20, the Rockets have been inept, totaling just 59 points for an 11.8 PPG average. The defense is a mess, allowing 31.4 PPG for the year, which puts them tied-99th in the nation. The Zips have yet to win at home but I believe that makes this spot even 'juicier!' QB Jacquemain says the team is "primed for an excellent effort" and that "they are READY, not RUSTY!" Akron has averaged 35.0 PPG over its last three games, with Jacquemain tossing two TDs in each contest (he's topped 200 yards in all but one game TY). RB Kennedy has 'exploded' the last two games, rushing for 459 yards (8.5 YPC) and five TDs. The power of the conference lies in the West but Toledo, while in the West, is not part of the power-base. Toledo has won eight of its last nine vs Akron, including six straight by an average margin of 21.0 PPG. However, as I said last night when selecting Buffalo, which had lost all 10 previous meetings with Miami (average loss by 26.0 PPG), this is a different time and setting. Akron is moving into a new on-campus stadium next season, so tonight's game in the Rubber Bowl will be its second-to-last home game. The team has waited 17 days to get back on the field and a win moves them into a tie with Buffalo for first-place in the East, with the Bulls coming to the Rubber Bowl next Wednesday. The Rockets limp into town with a lame-duck head coach and NOTHING to play for and a 2-8 road record in league play since the beginning of the 2006 season. MAC Game of the Year 20* Akron.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

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Wednesday NBA Opinion
L.A. Clippers (+13 1/2) over L.A. LAKERS
The Clippers apply to a very good 59-16-1 ATS big underdog situation that's been very good to me in recent years, but my ratings favor the Lakers by 15 points, which is where the line opened, but the line has dropped to 13 1/2 and the negative line value takes away some of the value from the great situation. I'll lean with the Clippers at +13 points or more.