11-6-08

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG
THURSDAY
15 Dime TCU -
5 Dime Teaser Broncos and Over -

FREE - Maryland/Va Tech Under

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NBA

I'm taking the points with PORTLAND. We're getting excellent line value with the Blazers here, in part due to the fact that they played last night while the Rockets had last night off. Playing the second of back to back games can certainly be difficult on teams at times. However, not all back to back situations are equal and they need to be looked at on an individual basis. In this case, we're still in early November so the players aren't completely exhausted from an entire season. Also, a team playing the second of back to back games will often be playing its third game in four nights and in some cases, its fourth game in five nights. That's not the case here though. Prior to last night's game, Portland had three nights off. Therefore, the team was very well-rested coming into last night's game. Additionally, the Blazers are a young team and have fared very well at the betting window when playing the second of back to back games. Despite (barely) failing to cover at Phoenix on the weekend, the Blazers are still 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they played the second of back to back games and 12-6 ATS their last 18 in that situation. The Blazers should be extremely motivated tonight. They already lost on TNT last week and want to give a better performance on National TV this time. Additionally, the Rockets were the only team to beat them four times last season and the Blazers also desperately want to prove that they are a better team this year. The Blazers were 10-6 ATS the last two seasons when listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. They won nine of those games outright, too. Overall, the Blazers were an outstanding 28-13 at home last season and they're already 1-0 here (beat the Spurs) this season. Look for them to continue that success tonight. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
THURSDAY GAME OF THE YEAR

I'm taking the points with DENVER. Both teams are off disappointing home losses last week. Denver still sits on top the AFC West though while Cleveland is a distant third in the North. While some might argue that make this game more important to the Browns, the Broncos have lost three in a row and they absolutely know that they can't afford to lose a fourth. That's particularly true with San Diego hosting the Chiefs this week. Additionally, and I believe this is an important point, while the Broncos still expect/hope to get things turned around and make the playoffs (or at least compete for them) the Browns already know that they have very little shot at even competing. Of course, Coach Romeo Crennel says otherwise. When he decided to name Brady Quinn as the starter for this weeks game, he was quoted as saying: "We're not throwing in the towel. We're not giving up on the season..." Still, that doesn't sound too encouraging. Speaking of Crennel, despite the Broncos' recent struggles, I feel that Shanahan is a better coach than Crennel, a significant factor which is often overlooked when handicapping NFL games. Not all the Browns players sound too thrilled with the decision to bench Anderson. Cleveland center Hank Fraley had this to say: "...It's a shock to everybody on this team. It's their decision and we're going to have to live with it." Note that Quinn hasn't thrown a pass yet this season and that he threw only eight last year, completing just three. While the former Notre Dame star may well develop into a quality NFL QB, one can't expect any miracles from a player with such limited actual game experience. Yes, it's true that the Broncos are dealing with some important injuries on defense and running back. Shanahan has always done a great job at replacing backs though and I believe that they've still got the offense to outscore the Browns. Despite the recent struggles, Denver still comes in averaging 23.8 points per game. Cleveland has managed just 17.8. More importantly, Cutler has won in this league while Quinn has not yet done so. Denver certainly has history on its side. Indeed, the Broncos have won 18 of the last 20 series meetings, most recently a 17-7 win here in 2006. Including that result, the Broncos have won four straight here at Cleveland and eight of their past nine here. Look for a huge effort as they continue that dominance for another year. *thurs GOY

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH

I'm taking the points with UTAH. Home teams have fared extremely well on Thursday nights this season and I expect the home team to have the edge in this evening's critical Mountain West clash. It's true that TCU was more impressive that Utah last Saturday. The Horned Frogs won by 30 at UNLV while the Utes won by only three at New Mexico. It's important not to over-react to those results though. The Lobos are arguably better than the Rebels, as evidenced by the fact that the Horned Frogs closed as -16.5 favorites at UNLV while the Utes were 'only' laying eight at New Mexico. (Note that TCU was really tested in its previous road game, winning by only six at Colorado State.) Also, note that Utah also blew out UNLV by three touchdowns. While the Utes may have been guilty of looking ahead last week, the bottom line is that both teams won. Those results have helped give us excellent value this week. If the Utes had delivered a blowout and the Frogs had only won by a field goal, it would be the Utes which were favored here. Instead, we're getting a couple of 'bonus' points. In addition to the added line value created by last week's results, I feel that the "close call" will actually help the Utes realize they really need to play well here. On the other hand, while they obviously badly want to win, the Horned Frogs may come in feeling a little over-confident. Homefield has proven particularly important on Thursdays this college season. With both teams coming off road games and both playing on a short week, I feel that getting to sleep in their own beds and play on their own field will again prove to be a big advantage for the Utes. Note that this will be just the fourth time in the past two seasons that the Horned Frogs played the second of back to back road games. They went 0-3 ATS in the those other three games, losing two of them outright (at Air Force and Oklahoma) and winning the third (at Stanford) by just two points, as a six point favorite. Even though I won with the Horned Frogs on a Thursday earlier this season (vs. BYU) it's worth noting that they're still just 2-5 in seven Thursday games since 2005. The Utes are 4-1 against the Horned Frogs and they're 15-3 their last 18 games played in November. They're also 39-19-1 ATS their last 59 times they were listed as underdogs, winning 31 of those games outright. Last week's win at New Mexico was Utah's fourth victory by seven points or less this season. In each previous case, the Utes "bounced back" with a double-digit victory in their next game. Look for them to bounce back with a huge effort once again, keeping their perfect record in tact and setting up a huge 11/22 showdown vs. BYU. *thursday gom

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NCAA BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT

I'm playing on Maryland and Virginia Tech to finish UNDER the total. The Terrapins have played three road games. All three of those games finished below the total with Maryland averaging a mere 11.3 in those games, most recently getting shutout completely. In fact, looking back to last season and we find the UNDER at 7-0 the last times the Terps played on the road. This week, they'll face a Virginia Tech defense which is allowing only 12.3 points per game at home. While they've been stout defensively, the Hokies have been less than impressive on offense. They're averaging 23.9 points and 23.7 at home. Note that the Hokies are dealing with some key injuries at the quarterback position. Both starter Tyrod Taylor and backup Sean Glennon are currently questionable. If either of them plays, they can't be expected to be at 100%. The Terps are also dealing with a key offensive injury of their own, as running back Da'Rel Scott is currently questionable. That's significant if he can't go (or isn't 100%) as Scott averages over 100 rushing yards per game, which leads the ACC. The Terps, who have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times they were coming off a bye, have seen the UNDER go 14-5 the last 19 times that they played a road game where the total ranged between 42.5 and 49. During the same stretch, the Hokies have seen the UNDER go 13-7 when playing a home game with a total in the same range, including a perfect 5-0 the past two seasons. It's also worth noting that the Hokies have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 their last five games played on a Thursday. The last meeting between these teams (in 2005) produced just 37 points and I expect another defensive battle tonight. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (UTAH/TCU) -- Thursday


At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Utah Utes plus the points over TCU.

[Mr. IWS]

bob lean over
CLEVELAND (-3.0) 27 Denver 24
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Nov-06 -
The Brady Quinn era begins for the Browns tonight, which makes this game a bit tough to forecast. The timing of the move was a bit odd considering that former starter Derek Anderson was actually playing very well over the previous 4 games after a horrible start to the season. Anderson averaged 6.9 yards per pass play over the Browns’ last 4 games, so switching to Quinn may not be a wise move. Quinn performed at decent level in the pre-season, completing 66% of mostly short passes for 6.8 yppp, but he faced a lot of reserve defensive personnel. I’ll assume that Brady will play at Cleveland’s season pass rating of 0.2 yppp worse than average and he should perform well against a porous Denver defense that has allowed 6.2 yards per play this season – although they played well in allowing just 4.9 yppl to Miami last week). Denver’s offense should also move the ball well, as the Broncos are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively while the Browns are 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. The Broncos are suffering some attrition at the running back spot, as Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were both put on IR while top back Selvin Young has missed the last few games with a tender groin and is listed as questionable for this game. The lack of running backs will probably lead to more passing and that will probably work in Denver’s favor given how poor the Browns’ pass defense is. My math model actually favors the Browns by 6 ½ points in this game if Quinn plays at the same level as Anderson, but Cleveland applies to a negative 7373-132-6 ATS situation and I’ll pass on the side in this game. But, I will lean over the 46 point total

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

DIVISION NHL GAME OF MONTH


Washington CAPITALS

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' MWC Game of the Month (PERFECT 3-0 FB week so far)
My 15* MWC Game of the Month is on Utah at 8:00 ET. The Utes were the first school from a non-BCS conference to crash the BCS bowl 'party' back in 2004. Utah is 9-0 in 2008 and ranked 8th in the current BCS standings, one of FIVE non-BCS conference schools ranked in the top-17 (No. 17 Ball State won 45-15 last night to move to 9-0). The Utes have three games remaining on their schedule and one is a harmless road trip to San Diego State on Nov 15. The other two are tonight's showdown with TCU (12th in the BCS) and their annual season-finale with BYU, ranked 15th in the BCS and the last team to beat them (17-10 at Provo in last year's final regular season game). That's two tough opponents but the good news is both games are at home. TCU is in the BCS 'mix' despite one loss, as that defeat came in Norman against the Sooners. Let's note that Oklahoma has won 23 straight home games, 43 of its last 44 and is 59-2 SU at home under Bob Stoops. One can see why no one is holding that loss against the Horned Frogs. TCU has a terrific defense, which ranks No. 2 in yards allowed (214.5 per game) and third in scoring (10.8 PPG). Subtract the 35 points the Horned Frogs allowed at Norman and the 'D' has allowed 8.1 PPG. QB Andy Dalton missed two games in the middle of the season but returned for the BYU game on October 16 (also a Thursday night), leading TCU to a 32-7 win. He's completed 62.9 percent over his last three games with nine TDs (zero INTs), while TCU has averaged 43.3 PPG. Dalton's even more dangerous because of the team's running game which has four players with more than 300 YR (a fifth has 294) and averages 224.0 YPG, 4.5 YPC and has scored 32 TDs. I will add though, that after BYU, the Horned Frogs have faced only Wyoming and UNLV (both are 3-6). That being said, the Utes have reached 9-0 this year navigating through a very 'soft' schedule. The team's toughest tests have come at Michigan (are the Wolverines still Div I-A?) and at Air Force (won 30-23 with a TD in the final minute). I'll concede that the Utes have played a favorable schedule but I won't concede that they are a mediocre team. Utah has been to five straight bowl games and only Boston College has a longer bowl winning streak (BC has won eight straight bowls and Utah seven!). Brian Johnson is not having a great season at QB but he's talented, completing 66.7 percent with a 14-8 ratio. The team has balance at RB with Asiata (531 YR / 5.2 YPC / 9 TDs) and Mack (465 YR / 4.6 YPC), averaging 184.0 YPG and 4.4 YPC. The team's defense may not be quite as good as TCU's but it ain't bad. The Utes rank 7th in YPG (266.2) and 18th in PPG (17.7). Utah QB Johnson will be tested by TCU's outstanding pass 'D' (48.3 percent allowed / 7 TDs and 14 INTs) but I'm betting that the senior comes through. Home teams have dominated Thursday nights this year (see TCU's 32-7 win over then-No. 9 BYU) and I expect the Utes to come through with a solid win, setting them up for their November 22 showdown with BYU. MWC Game of the Month 15* Utah.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

Thursday Night CFB Game of the Month

(111) TCU
(112) UTAH
Take " (111) TCU "
I'm playing the visitor in this top of the MWC battle. The Horned Frogs are a very disciplined team that runs the ball and stops the run. They have allowed a grand total of just 108 points in 10 games. Take away the loss at Oklahoma, and TCU has allowed just 8.11 points per game to their other nine opponents. They're a perfect 6-0 in conference play, winning by an average final score of 35 to 7.5! They have held four conference opponents to a TD each, one opponent to two TDs and one more to a field goal. MWC teams are averaging less than 12 first downs per game against TCU. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 298 rushing yards on 179 carries, or 1.66 yards per carry and 49.7 yards per game. The pass defense is just as strong. Their six conference opponents have connected on just 73 of 163 pass attempts, a 44.7% completion rate, for an average of 144.2 yards per game. Through their first six MWC tilts, TCU has allowed just ONE TD pass, yet they have intercepted eight passes and have sacked the QB 27 times, an average of 4.5 sacks per game. The offense is piling up yardage and points, scoring an average of 36.7 ppg! The offensive and defensive numbers would be even better, believe it or not, except HC Gary Patterson has pulled his regulars quite early in their blowout wins, including last Saturday at UNLV. I was at the game and the TCU starters got plenty of rest during the 44-14 win. That TCU defense will face a one-dimensional Ute offense. Last week, I went against Utah and cashed my Dog of the Year with UNM. I cited Utah's mediocre passing results in my write-up. The Utes have attempted the second fewest passes in the conference. They want to run the football, but as I mentioned above, TCU holds everyone in check, especially on the ground. In fact, the Frogs held mighty Oklahoma to 25 yards on 36 carries. Utah barely escaped a down Michigan team, barely got by Air Force, and escaped by the skin of their teeth at home against Oregon State and last week at New Mexico. The Utes were actually outgained by 68 yards by the Beavers and allowed 6.4 yards per play...in Salt Lake. The Utes also gave up 360 yards at 6 yards per play to Weber State in a 37-21 win. And, let's not forget, that against UNLV, Oregon State, Weber State, and New Mexico, the Utes' defense allowed a 64.5% completion rate (80 of 124) while allowing too many yards per pass. In fact, they allowed those four teams to throw for six TD passes without picking off a single pass in 124 tries. Utah has played an incredibly soft schedule to date and I believe they'll pay for it tonight. I'm laying the short number with TCU on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.