11-7-08

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***Nevada 42 FRESNO ST. (-1.0) 32
06:00 PM Pacific, 07-Nov-08
Fresno State got defensive tackle Jon Monga back in the lineup last week, but the Bulldogs’ defense was even worse than normal in allowing 7.5 yards per rushing play and 6.4 yards per play to a horrible Louisiana Tech offense that would average just 4.9 yppl at home against an average defense. Fresno is now allowing 5.8 yards per rushing play and 6.0 yppl against teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp and 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team. That unit will have no chance of slowing down a potent Nevada attack that has averaged 322 yards per game on the ground at 7.2 yprp (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and 6.9 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl). Only the good defensive units of Texas Tech and Missouri have held the Nevada attack below 7.0 yppl and my math model projects 558 total yards at 8.0 yppl for the Wolf Pack in this game. Nevada’s defense is susceptible to the pass (7.1 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppp against an average team), but the Wolf Pack are very good against the run (3.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) and Fresno likes to run the ball. The Bulldogs aren’t likely to run the ball as much tonight because they won’t have much success when they do run without their top two backs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller, who have combined for 1140 yards at 6.2 ypr this season. Third string back Anthony Harding is a good runner (459 yards at 6.4 ypr), but there is no proven talent behind him and Harding struggled last week in the Bulldogs’ loss to Louisiana Tech when he was asked to carry the load (just 47 yards on 14 carries). Throwing more will help the Bulldogs against a poor Nevada secondary, but Fresno isn’t as good as Nevada offensively and my math model calls for 459 yards at 6.9 yppl. While those are very good offensive numbers, they don’t compare favorably with the 558 yards at 8.0 yppl that Nevada is expected to gain. Nevada isn’t nearly as good in special teams as Fresno, but the Wolf Pack have an edge in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Wolf Pack by 4 points in this game. In addition to the line value, Nevada applies to a very good 93-39-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 22-4 ATS when applying to underdogs. Fresno, meanwhile, applies to a negative 6-35-1 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset road loss at Louisiana Tech. Fresno has dropped 7 consecutive games to the point spread and the Bulldogs have a tough time getting back on track once things start going poorly. In fact, Pat Hill’s team is now 11-27-2 ATS as a favorite of 2 points or more following a spread loss, including 4-21-1 ATS since 2002 (0-6 ATS this season). Nevada is coming off a loss in their last game too, but the Wolf Pack are 10-1 ATS the last 4 seasons in games following a straight up and ATS loss (4-1 ATS on the road). This game is a nice mix of good line value with a good situation and a statistical match-up indicator and those types of games have been good bets over the years. I’ll take Nevada in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars from -1 ½ to -3 points. Nevada would be a 4-Star Best Bet at +3 (at -1.15 odds or less).

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY
5 Dime Nevada/Fresno State OVER

5 Dime Teaser Fresno State/Over

5 Dime Suns



FREE - Hawks

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | NBA Sides
triple-dime bet506 NJN 7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 505 DET

Analysis: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY.
Game: Detroit Pistons vs. New Jersey Nets Game Time: 11/7/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. Adding Allen Iverson certainly makes the Pistons more dangerous offensively. However, they were already playing very well and the change in chemistry may take some getting used to. Even Iverson acknowledged: "It's definitely going to be a work in progress. I'd be lying if I said the chemistry will be there right off the top." Additionally, there's often a bit of "standing around and watching" when a new superstar joins the team. Regardless of whether or not that proves to be the case, I feel this line is too high. The Pistons are coming off an "upset" win at Toronto and they typically aren't very profitable in that situation. In fact, they were just 5-14 ATS the past two seasons when coming off a SU win as an underdog. While they've had some trouble with the Pistons recently, the Nets are still a healthy 26-16 ATS their last 42 games against the Central. Still searching for their first home win of the season, I look for them to give a huge effort here, earning at least the cover. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns went a PERFECT 5-0 yesterday, improving to 17-2 his L19 Thursday releases. That included a 3-0 SWEEP on the gridiron, bringing him to an AMAZING 27-3 (90%!) with his Thurs ftb picks this season, incl. a PERFECT 11-0 with his totals. Burns LOVES the WAC, recently winning OUTRIGHT with Utah St over Hawaii. Hop on board!

Burns Blue Chip Total- Over Fresno State/Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root:

Chairman- Clippers
Millionaire- Heat
Insiders Circle- Hawks

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Memphis and Golden State to finish OVER the total. I successfully play on these same two teams to finish 'under' the total just a few nights ago. The final score stayed below the number by 30+ points as Memphis won by a score of 90-79. That result has helped us tonight. For starters, tonight's over/under line is now several points lower, giving us plenty of additional line value. Additionally, the revenge-minded Warriors will be sure not to take the Grizzlies for granted here and will look to run them right out of the building. Note that Golden State has seen the OVER go a highly profitable 56-29-1 (66%) the last 86 times that it was facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. Monday's game was at Memphis, where the Grizzlies were able to dictate the tempo. Tonight's game is in Oakland where the Warriors will be able to push the pace. While the Grizzlies have played well defensively so far, it should be mentioned that they gave up 100 points at Sacramento last time out. Note that the Warriors are a lot more dangerous offensively than the current version of the Kings. Looking at Golden State's last 20 home games and we find that ALL 20 of them produced a minimum of 204 combined points. The last four visits by the Grizzlies have seen combined scores of 217, 220, 239 and 233. Look for them to eclipse the 200 mark again tonight. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Fresno and Nevada to finish OVER the total. We saw a pair of low-scoring contests last night but tonight's game should produce plenty of fireworks. At first glance, the number seems high. However, keep in mind that these same teams combined for a whopping 90 points last season, all of them coming in regulation. A closer look at the boxscore from that game reveals that the teams had an incredible 1177 total yards of offense. It's important to note that both of this year's teams brought back nearly their entire starting offense from that game. Fresno brought back 10 returning offensive starters. Nevada returned eight. Both offenses have been putting up big numbers again this season. The Bulldogs are averaging 33 points per game, including 36.7 over their past three games. The Wolfpack have been even better. They're averaging 37.9 points per game and a massive 514.6 yards per game of total offense. In conference games, they're averaging 42.2 points per game. The Wolfpack defense isn't particularly good though. Indeed, they're giving up 37 points per game on the road. Not surprisingly, the OVER is 7-4 the last 11 times the Wolfpack played on the road, including 3-1 the last four. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have seen the OVER go 4-1 their last five home games. I expect those numbers to improve tonight. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (4-0 run w/Insiders since last Saturday)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET. I used the Kings on Wednesday against the Grizzlies, as they won their first game of the season (after an 0-4 start on the road), 100-95. I'm coming right back with them here, vs another very beatable opponent. This situation is even better, as the Kings opened this season with a 98-96 loss at the Target Center (10/29), before getting routed 103-77, 121-103 and 125-91. Martin (20.8) and Salmons (16.4) give Sacramento a good scoring punch in the backcourt and rookie Jason Thompson (13.6-6.8) and second-year player Spencer Hawes (12.6-8.0) have done excellent work inside. The Kings expect to get veteran center Brad Miller back for this game, as he's served his five-game suspension for violating the NBA's drug program. Miller averaged 13.4 PPG and 9.5 RPG in 72 games last season. The T-wolves have Al Jefferson (22.2-12.2) inside but I'm not sold on rookie Kevin Love's (9.8-6.2) NBA potential. The rest of the team is young and really untested and let's remember just how bad Minnesota was last year (22-60 overall, 7-34 on the road). The Kings play five of their next six games at home and this team went 26-15 in Arco last year, so they may just get back to .500 before this stretch of games is over. Las Vegas Insider Sac Kings.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Eastern Conference GOW (PERFECT 3-0 start TY with GOW plays)
My 15* play is on the Was Wizards at 7:05 ET. I won my Western Conf GOW on Wednesday, when a winless Sacramento team got its first win of the new season by beating a bad team (Memphis) at home. I'll use that same formula tonight, as I expect the 0-3 Wizards (one of just two remaining winless NBA teams / Clippers are 0-5) to have little trouble with the Knicks. Mike D'Antoni has taken on the challenge of reviving the Knicks and he can't be too unhappy with his 2-2 start. He's decided not to play either Marbury and Curry (so far) and Zach Randolph (18.0-10.5) leads a group of six players who are averaging in double digits. However, the Knicks have played three of their first four games at home, losing badly in their lone road effort last Friday at Philadelphia (116-87). That's nothing new for this team, which went 8-33 SU on the road last year and remains a weak defensive club. The Knicks are allowing 105.8 PPG (27th) and opponents to shoot 49.6 percent from the floor. As for the Wizards, their early defensive efforts are worse than New York's, allowing 108.0 PPG (29th) and 50.0 percent (28th) from the floor. In fact, the Wizards have led each one of their three games this year at the half, only to lose. The team's collapse at Milwaukee on Wednesday, was the worst effort (non-effort?) of the season to-date. Washington led the Bucks by 14 points in the early 4th quarter but let the lead and the game slip away, dropping a 112-104 decision in OT. Enough is enough. It's true that Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood sidelined with injuries but the duo of Butler (20.3-8.0) and Jamison (19.0-7.0) should be able to carry the day (night) in this one. Second-year player Nick Young is showing early signs of being an excellent contributor, averaging 15.7 PPG through three games, after averaging a modest 7.5 PPG as a rookie. The reasoning here is pretty simple. The Wizards are the better team (even with their injuries), as they've been to the playoffs in each of the last four years. The slow start shouldn't get them down, as Washington opened 0-5 last year, before rebounding to win 43 games and make that fourth straight postseason appearance. That's no small feat, as the franchise had missed the playoffs in 15 of its previous 16 seasons before this current four-year run. As for the Kicks, they are still a "major work in progress," coming off consecutive seasons of 23, 33, 23 and 33 wins! Eastern Conference GOW 15* Was Wizards.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Superstar Triple Play-NBA (1st TY / includes Fabulous Friday Total)
My Superstar Triple Play is a 10* the Tor raptors (7:35 ET), a 10* on the SA Spurs (8:05 ET) and a 15* on Hou/LAC Over at 10:35 ET. My STP is on the Tor Raptors at 7:35 ET. There are four unbeaten teams remaining in the NBA and few would be surprised that the Jazz, Lakers and Pistons are three of those teams. The fact that the Hawks are the fourth is surprising. Everyone was impressed when Atlanta took Boston to seven games in last year's first round of the NBA playoffs but this year's 3-0 start is still a surprise, as the Hawks were just 37-45 last season. Wednesday's win at New Orleans came as a shock, especially the final score. The Hornets came in 3-0 and were the NBA's highest scoring team at 106.7 PPG but the Hawks won, 87-79. Joe Johnson led Atlanta with 24 points, while Josh Smith had 11 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. Johnson is second in the NBA in scoring this season with 28.0 PPG plus Smith is averaging 14.0 PPG and 10.7 RPG. Atlanta is No. 1 in points allowed (84.0) and third in both FG percentage (39.9) and three-point percentage (27.9). However, in the Raptors, they will face the league's best three-point shooting team (50.8). Bosh (26.0-10.8) and O'Neal will give Atlanta's frontcourt a tough time inside, while Toronto's perimeter game is terrific. PG Calderon (19.5-9.3 APG) is shooting 53.8 percent from the three-point line and is too young and quick for the older Bibby. Atlanta's riding high off its win at the Hornets but let's not forget that the Raptors were 3-0 before losing Wednesday night to the unbeaten Pistons or that the Raptors are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road to open the season. 10* Tor Raptors.

My 10* is on the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. The Spurs have won four titles since 1999, three coming since 2003. However, Ginobili is sidelined until at least mid-December and the Spurs are once again the league's oldest team. The Spurs stumbled out of the gate 0-3 but did get their first win Wednesday night at Minnesota, beating the Twolves 129-125 in double-OT. Tony Parker scored a career-high 55 points but the Spurs weren't able to get the cover, leaving them 0-4 ATS to begin the season. Expect the team's ATS slide to end tonight, with the Miami Heat visiting San Antonio. Miami is trying to rebound from last year's 15-67 'disaster' with a now healthy Dwayne Wade (23.5-5.8-7.3), Shawn Marion (12.0-9.0) plus rookies Michael Beasley (17.0-6.5) and Mario Chalmers (8.0-6.0 APG). However, while the Heat are 2-2 to open the year, both wins have come at home and the team is 0-2 ATS on the road, despite playing two of the league's worst teams (Knicks and Bobcats). Miami went just 6-35 SU on the road last year and is 1-20 all-time at San Antonio. The Heat have dropped 10 straight visits to San Antonio (last won in December of 1996), failing to reach 90 points in any of those 10 consecutive losses (and that include some good Miami teams). The Spurs are not the "Spurs of old" but they will win this one (handily) from memory. 10* SA Spurs.

My 15* is on Hou/LAC Over at 10:35 ET. The Clippers own the NBA's worst record (0-5) and have already been blown out twice at the Staples Center by their co-tenants, the Lakers (117-78 and 106-88). The Rockets are traveling off a 101-99 OT loss last night in Portland and will want to get back on track after back-to-back losses (lost at home to Boston on Tues). Houston has bigger "fish to fry" on this trip with games remaining at the Lakers, Suns and Spurs, before returning home to host the Hornets, so I expect a little less intensity here from the Rockets. As for the Clippers, look for them to finally resemble an NBA team (are shooting a league-worst 39.0 percent and averaging 84.4 PPG, which ranks second-to-last). Fabulous Friday Total on 15* Hou/LAC Over.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

Our Friday night NBA selection is on the Miami Heat plus the points at the San Antonio Spurs.

Last year, Manu Ginobili led the Spurs in scoring with over 19 ppg, but the Argentine superstar won't be in uniform for Gregg Popovich's crew for the first two months after having surgery to repair his ankle. His absence has hampered a Spurs team that struggles to score last season without Ginobili on the court.

In their first four games this season the Spurs are 0-4 ATS. Last year, Ginobili missed eight games, and the Spurs were 3-5 ATS in those games. The previous season, Manu missed seven games, and San Antonio was 1-6 ATS. And he also missed three games in April of the 2005-2006 season with the Spurs failing to cover all three of those games.

Indeed, San Antonio's performance without Ginobili (4-18 ATS last 22 missed games) is a lot worse than the games in which either Tim Duncan or Tony Parker failed to play. And if the Spurs were involved in a competitively priced game with a pointspread of eight points or less, the Manu-less Spurs are 1-15, 6% ATS since April 2006. Take Miami.


Pick: Heat +6½