11-7-08

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK NEWSLETTER

Friday, November 7th

Nevada over FRESNO STATE by 1
A season that started with great promise for Pat Hill’s Bulldogs came crashing
down last weekend with a loss to mediocre Louisiana Tech, the third time
this year that Fresno State has come out on the short end of a 3-point fi nal.
With the WAC title now conceded to Boise State, Hill admitted that the
only thing left to play for is a bowl berth. That could be a lot easier said
than done, particularly when the 5-3 Dogs defense is getting gashed for an
ugly 5.4 YPR and the visiting Wolf Pack is toting the mail for an outstanding
average of 6.6 YPR. Advantage, Nevada. The Reno Wolves also look like
the pack to back when we note their 4-1 ATS record as a series dog and
FSU’s dismal 1-5 spread mark this season as chalk. In a game that looks to
be tighter than this week’s presidential election, we’ll take the feral dogs to
bring down their domesticated cousins.

[Mr. IWS]

Patron
7500 UNIT FRIDAY FREE PLAY (you get this free if you buy Saturday's 30,000 unit game)
NEVADA WOLFPACK -1

[Mr. IWS]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

Friday, November 7th

Nevada at FRESNO ST - FSU has won 8 of the L/9 (6-2-1 ATS) with the avg win by 21 ppg. These 2 have avg 70 ppg in the L/4, going over the ttl 3x. LY marked the coming out party for UN’s Kaepernick (384 yds & 4 TD) when he stepped in at QB after an inj & has been the #1 QB ever since. He’s avg 190 ypg (61%) with a 12-4 ratio & his 752 yds rush (tm-high 12 TD) and along with RB Taua’s 896 yds (10 TD) gives UN the #2 rush off in the NCAA (306 ypg). UN’s Achilles’ heel is its pass D (#119 in the NCAA) all’g 328 ypg. FSU is 7-3 ATS in Nov HG’s S/’03 but is 2-8 ATS as a HF & is looking to end an 0-7 ATS streak. QB Brandstater is avg 224 ypg (62%) with a 15-6 ratio & is coming off a 296 yd, 4 TD outing in the loss to LT LW. FSU’s rush off avg 197 ypg led by RB Mathews with 593 yds (5.4). He ran for 171 yds & 3 TD in LY’s 49-41 (+3) road win.

[Mr. IWS]

JIM FEIST

MILWAUKEE BUCKS / BOSTON CELTICS
TAKE MILWAUKEE BUCKS

The Bucks have surprised oddsmakers by playing some defense this season. They haven't played any 'D' in years, but not so this season under Coach Scott Skiles, allowing 44% shooting, 15th in the league. They've also won 3 of 4 games, holding the run and gun Knicks to 86 points (on the road) and nearly topping Toronto in a 91-87 game. Boston is getting all the attention as defending champ, but comes home after a 3-game road trip. The surprising visitors and their new defense will help them stay closer than expected. Play the Bucks.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Harvey

Utah Jazz -11.5

For the third time in five years the Utah Jazz have started the season 4-0. While the players come and go, the one certain is head coach Jerry Sloan who is in his 21st season as boss of the bench. Tonight could be a historic night for Sloan who is one win away from becoming the first coach to win 1,000 games with one team. It says here the undermanned Oklahoma City Thunder will accomodate.For the third straight year, Carlos Boozer has been a beast, averaging a double-double per game with 21 points and 10 rebounds. He’s also shooting a very quiet 62.7% well above his career average. Boozer is the main main, but he’s surrounded by solid talent like Memhmet Okur who is good for 15 points and 8 rebounds per game this season. The one unknown for the Jazz is Andrei Kirlenko. Some nights AK-47 brings his A game and can be a triple-double waiting to happen. Most nights though he’s just average. A classic under acheiver. Utah is still waiting for Deron Williams to return to the line-up and when he does, the Jazz could start pulling away from the rest of th division.There’s not much to get excited about when it comes to OKC. They’ve got Kevin Durant and very little else. The Thunder ranks last in the league in scoring (83.8) and are tied with the Jazz for last in the NBA with just eight three-pointers.Utah will be full throttle tonight trying to get Sloan to the 1,000 mark. This one could get ugly and will end with a double-digit win and an easy cover.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets play host to the Mavericks in a Western Conference duel in the Mile High city when recently acquired Chauncey Billups makes his debut with Denver. Dallas checks in off a 17-point upset win over San Antonio on Tuesday while the Nuggets dropped a10-point decision to the Warriors at Golden State Wednesday. With Denver 4-0 ATS the last four games in this series and the Mavericks 0-6 ATS in games after sparring with the Spurs, we'll stay at home with the Nuggets this evening.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Experts

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland has totally dominated this H2H series in the LeBron James era, covering six of the last seven, winning 10 of the last 11 outright, including the last seven here at home. LeBron James scored 30 or more points in three of the four meetings with the Pacers last season and Indiana is certainly no better this year. They were terrible on the defensive end last year and come into this game a bit banged up. The fact of the matter is that they're not very good.

Play on: Cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

LVTR

Dallas-Anaheim OVER 5.5

NY Knicks- Wash UNDER 210



Free Play: Nevada -2

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy Rider | CFB Total
114 Fresno St. / 113 Nevada Over 71.0 Bodog


Analysis: *1 UNIT PLAY*

[Mr. IWS]

Here is my college football selection and don't forget about Free Play Friday at procappersnetwork where you can get my NBA & NHL plays tonight as well as Stadium Club Sports selections for this evening simply by signing up for a free account. Here is my football selection w/writeup:

I feel that I was fortunate last night as I went 2-0 in the College Football but Utah was outplayed for much of the game but found a way to win late so I will take it and the 6.06 units of profit with it. Here is my play on tonight's game:

114 Fresno State +1 1/2 +1.06 (3 Unit Play)-This game will pit offensive strength against defensive weakness on both sides and the team that effectively plays the better overall defense should emerge victorious tonight. Fresno State entered this season with BCS aspirations but those were quickly dashed by a tough home loss to Wisconsin and due to injuries on their defense they have just been unable to control the run. That could be trouble against an explosive Nevada running attack that ranks #2 in the country. If this is the case then why am I recommending a play on Fresno State here? The answer is because Fresno State has a pretty explosive offense of their own and their strength is in the passing game and that spells trouble for Nevada who is the worst ranked passing defense in the NCAA this year. These teams may trade points but I have more faith in Fresno State who is playing in front of their home crowd for only the fourth time this year and Pat Hill should have his troops primed for tonight's nationally televised contest. Fresno State has a couple of their top RB's out and I think that affected them last week on the road but they should have that problem settled here tonight. Fresno State also has much better special teams and in a game where I can get points that could be the issue that settles the game. I like Fresno State at home and actually would lean to this game Under believe it or not even though both team's offenses are much better than the defense but I am making only a play on the Bulldogs at home. By the way you can probably wait and get a higher number here as it seems that Nevada keeps climbing as I type this.

That is my Friday Night football selection and I will be back on Saturday with a big card. Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the game as well as your upcoming weekend.

Oscarxena Sports

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Dallas Stars

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Dallas (NHL) Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 243-251 for 49% and has made a tidy profit of 65.7 units since 2002. Play against home favorites of -200 or less against the money line that are explosive offensive teams scoring 3+ goals/game on the season and after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored. The average play has been a dog of +130. In the money line sports of MLB and NHL strong results are based on units won and not on winning percentage. Such is the case with this system that is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino. This system essentially is playing BJ and being rewarded $1.30 for every winning $1.00 played and having the opportunity play 494 hands. Here is another dog playing system that has gone 83-64 making 53.3 units since 2002. Play against home favorites of -200 or less against the money line that is a tired team playing their 4th game in 7 days and with a winning record on the season facing a losing record team. Anaheim in a rough spot here noting they are 0-4 against the money line (-9.2 Units) in home games against terrible teams being outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is in a strong role noting they are 6-1 against the money line (+6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Take Dallas.

[Mr. IWS]

N*S*A

CFB Nevada @ Fresno St 9:00 PM EST 20* Nevada -1
CFB Nevada @ Fresno St 9:00 PM EST 10* OVER 70.5
NBA Dallas @ Denver 10:35 PM EST 10* Denver -1
NBA Miami @ San Antonio8:00 PM EST 10* San Antonio -5.5
NBA Oklahoma City @ Utah 9:05 PM EST 10* Utah -11.5
NBA Toronto @ Atlanta 7:35 PM EST 10* Toronto +3

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock College
4 units Nevada -2

[Mr. IWS]

BOB AKMENS

NBA

10*phoenix -4.5 vs chicago

10*new orleans -7.5 charlotte

NHL

10*buffalo/atlanta over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies

500* Nevada / Fresno St Over 71
30* Fresno St +1
20* Golden St -6'
20* New Orleans -7'
10* Utah -11
Chicago +4 free play

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Nevada (+1) over Fresno State (NCAA Power Play)

Nevada
• 11-1 ATS coming off an OVER the total the last 3 seasons
• 5-0 ATS coming off a bye week the last 3 seasons
• 9-1 ATS after allowing 37 points or more the last game

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

College Football
Nevada -2 over Fresno
Nevada has a great offense which scores about 40 points a game and will be going against a Fresno defense that has looked awful. Fresno is a young team and both of their top running backs are hurt. The lack of running will make this Fresno offense unbalanced. The betting public is pounding Fresno as a dog. Look for Nevada to get the road victory. Take Nevada.

NBA Basketball
Pacers +8.5 over Cavs

[Mr. IWS]

Marco D'Angelo | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
113 Nevada -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 114 Fresno St.
Analysis: PLAY: NEVADA
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY

First off expect both teams to be going up and down the field tonight. However I feel the Nevada offense is the better offense and will be the one that is on the field the most. Nevada is what I refer to as a 200 Club Team which means they rush and pass for at least 200 yards. Nevada puts up 288 yards per game on the ground. Fresno St gives up almost 200 yards per game onthe ground and that will be the difference in this game. Nevada wins this shootout by 7-10 points. This is MARCO'S WAC ATTACK PLAY.

Marco Rated this Play a 3 STAR PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service

[Mr. IWS]

northcoast friday night marquee-NEVADA OVER 70- !!

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
4 Nevada -2
5 Jazz -11
4 Over 205.5 Dallas/Denver
3 Rockets

ATS Financial Package
3 Under 71 Nevada/Fresno
4 Suns -4.5
3 Nuggets +1

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp

New Jersey +7.5 -110

Double Dime

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning

Toronto

Under Bost / Mil

[Mr. IWS]

spylock
nevada....1 unit
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

IC

Nevada ( Pod )

Sa Spurs

[Mr. IWS]

MIKE HANDZELEK
NHL

Take the Montreal Canadiens on the road tonight as they've shown us an almost perfect 4-0-0-1 record travelling thus far with their only loss a shootout loss to open the season. What else that's caught my eye is none other the superior goal tending between the pipes from Carey Price. Interesting enough, Carey Price gave up 3 goals in an upset win by Columbus when they shut the Habs out in Montreal back in February. Price is a season older and wiser now and the lines with Tanguay, Kovalev & Koivu will prove too much by games end to counter for the Blue Jackets. The Canadiens are rolling right now and with revenge. That's a tough out in my book and the sleeping giant rears its head on the road in Columbus tonight whether Price is in goal or they give a surprise start to Jaroslav Halak (who is 2-0 this season). It's win number 9 for Montreal & I'm putting up $200 on Guy LaFleur's NHL alma mater on the ML to complete revenge on the road!

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond's 5* NHL PRIVATE PLAYERS BEST BET WINNER
Pick # 1 Ottawa Senators (105)


RON RAYMOND'S NBA O/U TOP PLAY WINNER!
Pick # 1 Houston Rockets / Los Angeles Clippers Under 181.5 -
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

BOBBY WILLIAMS

This has probably been Coach Pat Hill of Fresno State's most disappointing team. After a big road win at Oregon State and a 3-0 start they have literally fallen apart with losses to inferior programs. Even their home edge has gone as they are below .500 ATS at home. The once big game at the end of the season against Boise State is not big anymore. The trouble continues as Nevada comes in to Fresno and puts a WHUPPIN on Pat Hill's boys. Take NEVADA

[Mr. IWS]

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Nevada – AiS shows an 85% probability that Nevada will win this game. Nevada will not gain more than 200 passing yards. Note that Fresno State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. The Nevada Wolfpack running game will be in high gear and combined w/passing they will gain a MINIMUM of 450 total yards. Note that FSU is just 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards since 1992; 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play since 1992. Nevada is 46-17 ATS (+27.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Nevada has an 88% probability of scoring 28 or more points. Given the posted total of 71 and line of -1 this implies that both teams will score 35 points. The line only reflects public sentiment, but the AiS shows that Nevada will have a big offensive night. There is NO play however on the OVER. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-8 for 80% over the past 10 seasons. Play against a home team after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games ad is facing an opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. Although Nevada is a run dominated offense they do complete passes at 59.4% rate, which is solid. FSU is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better since 1992. FSU HC Hill is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games; 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3 Unit Play. #114 Take Fresno State over Nevada (Friday 9:00 pm ESPN 2) A match-up of .500 teams in the WAC takes place tonight in Fresno, CA. The Wolf Pack have dropped two of their last three games and also suffered a setback to Fresno last year in Reno, 49-41. The Bulldogs have a major edge in the all-time series going 24-13-1. The Bulldogs have not played well at home in 2008 but will establish their dominance starting tonight with a strong passing attack. They lost last week to Louisiana Tech by three points and will take out their frustrations in a big way tonight, as we collect in the process as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso BB

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25 units Pistons -7.5

[Mr. IWS]

lenny stevens

10 sac
10 denver

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

50* Nev
100* Nev under

100* "steam play" - Rockets

[Mr. IWS]

Joyce Sterling

Minnesota +4

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3 Unit Play. #6 Take Over 5 ½ in Atlanta @ Buffalo (7:35 pm NHL Center Ice) We have been cleaning up with the over’s for Atlanta all season long and after an easy winner with them last night we will come right back with another top rated selection. This team has went over tonight’s posted number six of their last seven games and most of that action has seen at least seven or more goals. They are a huge underdog tonight against Buffalo and thus we will not worry if they can cover this big spread and just collect with the over.

Best of luck – Doc’s Sports