11-9-08

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob NFL

Rotation #221 Seattle (+8 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more, 2-Stars at +7.
Rotation #232 Philadelphia (-2 1/2 at -120) 3-Stars at -3 (-1.15 or better) or less, 2-Stars up to -4 points.
Rotation #236 Houston (+1) 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #226 Oakland (+9 1/2) Strong Opinion at +7 1/2 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #212 Detroit (+6 1/2) Strong Opinion at +5 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Ness 25* Pats

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

Sunday - NFL
3* Philly-2.5 (grab it early)
3* Houston Pickem

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Gabrielle

Last Week: What's that I said last week about cookie-cutter races not paying off big, but paying off? Very predictably, Carl Edwards followed up his Atlanta win two weeks ago with a victory at the eminently similar track in Texas, giving us a win but only delivering on +350 odds. That's all right, we'll take it. For the week, that meant a 50% profit: we netted 0.25 units on 0.5 units wagered. For the season, we've profited 5.53 units on 38.5 units wagered, a return of 14.4%. We've also given you a winning week in 24 of 33 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won 1.5 units on three units wagered; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 19.73 units on 121 units wagered, a return of 16.3%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)

Take Denny Hamlin (+900), 1/6th unit. Hamlin would've won here in the spring had Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer (+1800) not been able to make the checkers on fumes; Hamlin did have the fastest car by race's end. And that's not the first time that's happened to him at Phoenix. He drives really well at the flatter tracks in the Car of Tomorrow, and while the No. 11 team has been ice cold, I think Hamlin has one more good run in him, this week at the flat track in the desert.

Take Jimmie Johnson (+450), 1/6th unit. If I have to place a bet on one of the two title contenders at Phoenix International Raceway, I'm taking Johnson over Carl Edwards (+500). There's no question, Edwards has it in him to register a top 10 on Sunday, but I just don't like the Roush flat-track program enough to wager on him. Instead, I'll take J.J., who may play it an eensy bit safe Sunday, making sure he doesn't go a lap down early again (as he's done each of the past two weeks), but who is a true dominator at the flat tracks in the COT.

Take Jeff Gordon (+1500), 1/6th unit. How the mighty have fallen. I can't say I recall Gordon's odds being this long at any point in the past few years. The fact is, though, that he's got the second-best finishing average at the Phoenix track type over the past two years (since the COT has been in effect). He only finished 13th here back in April, which doesn't do much for me, but he finished second and fourth at Martinsville this year, plus had two other top-10 finishes at the flattish shorter track in Richmond. I'll give the oddsmakers this: it is relatively unlikely that Gordon gets it done Sunday. Still, at this price, I think it's worth the chance.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Sunday

25 Dime - Tennessee Titans (if your book has 3 1/2, make sure you buy the 1/2 and only lay -3. If you have -3 you buy it down and lay 2 1/2. Never get beat by the hook and in this case, let's buy it down to 2 1/2.)

10 Dime 6 pt Teaser- Dolphins / Packers



F/P- Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

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Linemover Chargers

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Week 10 Las Vegas Insider-NFL (7-1 or 87.5 percent ATS this year!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. These two longtime division rivals were part of the NFL's Week 1 MNF doubleheader. That game was Aaron Rodgers' NFL debut as a starter and he "rose to the occasion." The Packers held off the Vikings 24-19 in that game, as Rodgers completed 18-of-22 passes for 178 yards with a passing and rushing TD, earning a QB rating of 115.5! I had the Packers in that game but I well-remember that the Vikings dominated the second half, outgaining Green Bay 255-94 in yards and 16-4 in FDs. What should also be noted regarding that contest was that Jackson was still Minnesota's QB at that time. However, after the team's Week 2 loss, Brad Childress made the switch to Gus Frerotte and the Vikings have won four off their last six games. At 4-4, Minnesota is tied with Green Bay in the NFC North, just one game behind the 5-3 Bears. Frerotte won't remind anyone of Johnny Unitas but he's topped 200 yards passing in five of his six games (averages 244.7 YPG through the air, compared to 154 by Jackson!). He failed to reach 200 yards in a game for the first time last week but he also passed for three TDs in Minnesota's 28-21 win over the Texans, a trade-off I'm sure the Vikes would accept this week as well. Berrian, the team's big off-season acquisition at WR from Chicago, did nothing with Jackson at QB (three catches for 38 yards in two games) but has 27 receptions in six games with Frerotte, averaging 21.6 YPC and has now caught a TD pass in four straight games. While Frerotte has made a big difference, the key to Minnesota's offense is Adrian Peterson. AP is second in the NFL in rushing (823 YR / 4.7 YPC) and has but together three straight 100-yard games (123.7 YPG / 5.3 YPC). He can't wait to get at the Green Bay rush 'D,' as it allows 146.4 YPG on 4.9 YPC. Despite season-long injury woes, the Green Bay pass 'D' has played well, ranking 5th in YPG (183.9) and holding opposing QBs to a low 51.3 percent completions. Green Bay has allowed just nine TD passes and has 13 INTs but doesn't get mush pressure on the QB (just 14 sacks). Rodgers played very well in that Week 1 game and his solid season (63.7 percent / 247.8 YPG / 13-5 ratio / 95.3 rating) has earned him a HUGE contract extension. However, you'll note that he's only averaging three more YPG in the air than Frerotte, and has way better receivers in Jennings and Driver. So either Rodgers is overrated, or Frerotte ain't so bad! Rodgers will be helped by the fact that Ryan Grant is back running well (91.0 YPG over his last four) but the Minnesota rush 'D' is allowing 69.6 YPG (3.0 YPC), the second-best mark in the league. DE Jared Allen is expected to miss again this week but without him last week, the Vikes had five sacks (have 21 on the year). With Peterson is top-form, the Vikings typically control the line of scrimmage with him and their great DL (LW outrushed the Texans, 177-69) and Rodgers will be getting his first tatse of the loud and very unique setting of the Metrodome (Favre sure never liked it nor did well there!). The Vikes were favored to win the North this year and after a poor start, a win here puts them right in the middle of the 'fight.' Childress is 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) vs McCarthy and is long overdue for a win. He gets it here! Las Vegas Insider on the Min Vikings.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-NFL Total (75 percent FB run!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on NO/Atl Over at 1:00 ET. The Falcons have put the Michael Vick/Bobby Petrino 'nightmare' of last year behind them with rookie QB Matt Ryan and rookie head coach Mike Smith. Ryan has a solid QB rating of 85.4 and has bonded with WR Roddy White (48 catches / 15.3 YPC), while RB Turner has run for almost 100 YPG (794 yards in eight games). Smith has done a great job on the sidelines, leading a team which was 4-12 last year to a 5-3 mark at the mid-point of the '08 season, including a 3-0 SU and ATS record here in the Georgia Dome. The Saints have battled through serious injuries to their RBs and WRs plus overcome a shaky defense to go 4-4 so far. QB Drew Brees could be the league's first-half MVP, completing 69.1 percent for an average of 320.4 YPG (No. 1 in the NFL) with 15 TDs (seven INTs) and a QB rating of 101.6 (ranks 3rd). The Saints have an excellent recent history against the Falcons, going 7-3 SU and ATS the last five years. They are returning from London (where they beat the Chargers 37-32) and are off a bye week. At 4-4, the Saints trail the 5-3 Falcons plus both 6-2 teams (Bucs and Panthers) in the NFC South, so a loss here would be devastating. As for the Falcons, one has to wonder just how good this team is and can it keep up its fine play? However, a few things are clear. The Saints finished last year playing five consecutive 'overs,' with each game averaging 54.4 PPG. Through the first eight games of this year, the Saints are 5-2-1 to the 'over,' and have scored 24 points or more in seven of their eight games. They were held to seven points at Carolina, averaging 29.9 PPG in their other seven. The Atlanta secondary is not equipped to handle Brees, especially now that both TE and shockey and WR Colstons are ready to contribute on a regular basis. Bress has been brilliant despite their injuries, with WRs Moore and Henderson plus TE Miller doing surprisingly well. With Bush still sidelined and McAllister hardly playing like "the Duce of old," the Saints can win only way, by scoring. Their defense cannot be counted on to stop anyone, especially away from home. The Saints have played three road games this year plus the game in London, allowing 29, 34 30 and 32 points (31.3 PPG). The Falcons like to use the run (with Turner) to set up the pass, so as not to put rookie Matt Ryan in the position of playing from behind. It's worked well so far, as Atlanta has outscored its opponents 68-14 this year in the first quarter. Remember, the Falcons are 3-0 SU and ATS at home while averaging 31.3 PPG, the same total the Saints' D has allowed in four away games. This total is high but it's "not high enough!" Going back to last year's five final games, the Saints are 10-2-1 to the 'over' their last 13 games. Weekend Wipeout Winner NO/Atl Over.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

NON CONFERENCE PERSONAL FAVORITE

I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. The Titans have certainly been on an impressive run. However, they finally failed to cover (pushed vs. closing line) last week and this week I expect them to finally suffer their first loss. Last week's game was very physically exhausting and not just because it went to overtime. It was hard-hitting the entire way and both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Keith Bulluck left the game due to injury. Both players are very important to this team. Both missed practice on Friday and both are currently questionable. Regardless of whether Vanden Bosch and/or Bulluck in the lineup and regardless of who starts at QB for the Bears, I expect a huge effort from Chicago. This team has quietly been playing at a very high level, particularly here at home. The Bears have averaged greater than 30 points at home on the season. They've won three straight here and five of their last six here, dating back to last season. (The lone loss during that stretch came by a field goal.) While much of the Bears' success has had to do with Orton, should Grossman start, I expect him to play with a real chip on his shoulder and to effectively lead the offense. Note that Grossman came off the bench last week and helped lead the Bears to a comeback win over the Lions. Look for the Bears, 11-3 the last 14 times they were coming off a divisional game, to carry positive momentum from that comeback into this afternoon's game, handing the Titans their first loss of the season. *Non Conference Personal Favorite


AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Texans opened as a small favorite but are now a small underdog. While I understand that's got a lot to do with Schaub being out, I believe that move is a mistake. Rosenfels is fully capable. Other than his couple of memorable fumbles, Rosenfels was great in his last start against Indianapolis. Houston receiver Kevin Walter had this to say of Rosenfels: "He played a great game against Indy, except the last three minutes we didn't execute and we turned the ball over. He played a great game and we know he's capable of playing great games. We're going to rally around him." It should also be noted that Rosenfels was 4-1 as a starter last season. Additionally, note that Rosenfels was 21-for-29 with a pair of touchdowns in relief last week. While the Texans are playing in the comforts of their own stadium, the Ravens are in the middle of a very difficult scheduling spot. This is their second straight road game and fourth in the past five games. Additionally, they've got a date with the defending Super Bowl Champs on deck. The Texans are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times they were listed as a home underdog of three points or less. They're also 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times they played a home game with an over/under line in the 38.5 to 42 range. During the same stretch, the Ravens were 0-6 ATS when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Look for the Texans to "rally around Rosenfels" and come away with the victory. *AFC GOM


NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

I'm playing on the Vikings and Packers to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Packers to finish UNDER the total last week and they were involved in a defensive battle with the Titans. While the Minnesota defense admittedly isn't as good as the Tennessee defense, I do feel that the Vikings are better on that side of the ball than most think and I expect them to deliver a solid effort on that side of the ball this week. Note that while the Vikings have struggled defensively on the road, they've been great at shutting down opponents at home. In four games here, they've limited opponents to an average of only 14.7 points and 287.5 yards. While last week's game did finish above the total, the UNDER is still 3-1 in the four games here. The Packers come in allowing 22.2 points per game and 22.7 on the road. Opponents are managingly only 290 yards in those road games. Note that the Packers are allowing only 16.3 points their past three games. These teams played back in September and the total was 37.5. This week's number is much higher, giving us excellent value. That game, which finished with 43 combined points, marked the seventh straight meeting in this series which produced 43 points or less. Those seven games averaged only 36 points. With the Vikings listed as small favorites, it's also worth noting that the UNDER is a highly profitable 16-3 the last 19 times that the Vikings were listed as home favorites of three points or less. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again. *NFC TOM


NFL SHOCKER OF THE MONTH

I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. Not many people are going to want to back the Raiders here, as they were shutout by Atlanta last week. I believe that there has been an over- reaction to that result though and that the Raiders now offer us plenty of value. Keep in mind that prior to the Atlanta loss, the Raiders had played quite well in each of their previous two home games. In those games, they defeated the Jets outright and nearly beat San Diego, blowing that victory in the final minutes. Back to my point about line-value, the Chargers were laying 7.5 points for that game. Carolina is a solid team which has played well. Yet, the Panthers are still arguably not as powerful or explosive (at least on offense) as the Chargers. Additionally, the Panthers are also traveling from the East Coast, something the Chargers didn't have to do. Yet, Carolina is laying a bigger number than San Diego (or any other opponent) has laid here yet. While the Panthers do have the advantage of a bye week (note that they're just 6-9 SU the last 15 off a bye) they've really struggled on the road. They've gone 1-2 in three road games with the lone victory coming by just two points. Overall, they were outscored an average score of 23.7 to 13 in those games. It's also worth noting that the Panthers are just 1-4-2 ATS (2-5 SU) the last seven times they were coming off consecutive victories. They've been in that situation twice this season and they went 0-2 SU/ATS in the third game, getting outscored by a combined 47-13 margin. Look for the Raiders to bounce back with a much better effort, improving to 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs of greater than eight points. *SHOCKER

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Lions
Millionaire- Eagles
Money Maker- Falcons
No Limit- Bears
Insiders Circle- Bills
Billionaire- Texans

Money Maker- Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 tenn
3 atl, minn, giants, pitt

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer New England

SCOTT SPREITZER'S TOP HAMMER BLOWOUT G.O.W.! Early
Scott Spreitzer CASHED a 3-1, 75% winning gridiron Saturday and he won his NFL TOP HAMMER on Thursday with the Broncos over Cleveland! On Sunday, (early kick), Scott's slamming the books with his NFL HAMMER BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK! Grab this big-time beatdown and kick the books sideways again!

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al
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3* Toronto Raptors

3* NY Knicks

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

REG: Patriots
TOP: Tennessee (TKO)
Kansas City (TKO)
Atlanta (KO)
Houston (Insider)

[Mr. IWS]

drbob basketball

Sunday NBA Opinion
NEW YORK (+4 1/2) over Utah
New York's win at Washington sets them up in a solid 50-14-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation today against the unbeaten Jazz. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Utah by 5 1/2 points in this game and I'm not willing to give up the line value to make the Knicks a Best Bet. I'll just lean with New York plus the points.