11-10-08

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

ARIZONA (-9.5) 27 San Francisco 17
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Nov-10 - Stats Matchup
Arizona is one of the better teams in the NFL this season, as the Cardinals have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yards per play to 5.5 yppl and their defensive rating is actually better than average if you only include the 6 games in which star S Adrian Wilson has played. The 49ers are switching to Shaun Hill at quarterback in place of the reckless J.T. O’Sullivan, who threw 11 interceptions in 7 ½ points before getting pulled against Seattle. Hill played at a decent level at the end of last season and he figures to settle for shorter passes while taking less sacks and throwing fewer interceptions. The Niners have a decent offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and a pretty good defense that’s yielded just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl to an average attack. San Francisco hasn’t reached their potential as a better than average team because of their -10 turnover margin. With O’Sullivan less likely to turn the ball over from the bench I expect the 49ers to become more competitive. Even with that being the case my math favors Arizona by 9 ½ points in this game, so I’ll pass.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

10 dime 6 point teaser on arizona and over

free play-- boston celtics

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 15* Non-Conference GOW (75 percent with GOW plays TY)

My 15* play is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET. The Blazers fashioned a 41-41 mark last year, despite not having Greg Oden (the NBA's top pick two years ago) available for a single game. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge led a team which got great contributions from a wide group of role players, giving the Blazers all sorts of hope for this year, with Oden expected back at full speed. However, Oden went down with a foot injury in the team's opening game in LA vs the Lakers and the timetable for his return was set at four-to-six weeks. The Blazers are set to open a five-game road trip tonight in Orlando and Oden will join the Blazers, but it hasn't been determined whether he will play in any of the games or not. A for the Magic, the team that won 52 games last season was the Southeast Division favorite again this year. Orlando is led by the NBA's best young center, Dwight Howard plus forwards Lewis and Turkoglu. The Magic were stunned in their home-opener this year, losing 99-85 to the Hawks but that final is no longer a surprise, as the Hawks are 5-0 to the open the new season, joining the Lakers (also 5-0), as the NBA's only unbeaten teams. Orlando then lost at Memphis 86-84 two nights later but the month of November brought them a five-game homestand. The Magic have rebounded to win the first four games of the homestand (3-1 ATS) and look for a five-game sweep of it tonight against the Blazers. The Blazers were 28-13 at home last year but 13-28 on the road and this year have gone 3-0 at home (with wins over the Spurs and Rockets) but 0-3 SU and ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 89.3-to-1202.0 PPG. Roy (19.8-4.0-6.0) and Aldridge (19.3-6.5) are again playing well for the Blazers, as his Rudy Fernandez, a rookie from Spain, who is coming off the bench to average 13.7 PPG. However, the Blazers just don't play with the same confidence on the road and the Magic, after scoring 85 and 84 points in losing their first two games of this year, have averaged 105.3 PPG while winning the first four games of this homestand. Howard (22.3-13.7) is as dominant as ever, with Lewis (17.7-7.2) and Turkoglu (15.5-6.2-4.0) not missing a beat, either. Nelson (11.0-4.8 APG) has the PG job all to himself this year and Pietrus (former Warrior) is an excellent addition, as he can score from the backcourt (13.8) and plays excellent perimeter defense. Non-Conf Game of the Week 15* Orl Magic.
Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | NBA Sides
double-dime bet708 MIA -8.5 (-110) Bodog vs 707 NJN
Analysis:
The Nets missed the playoffs last year for the first time since the 2000-01 season, with a 34-48 record. However, that pales in comparison to the indignities suffered by the Heat last season, as the team which won the NBA title in the 2005-06 season, fell all the way to 15-67 (Dwayne Wade missed most of the year). The Nets decided to part with Jason Kidd during the season last year and in the off-season, moved Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee, leaving Vince Carter as the lone remaining member of their "Big Three." Carter (21-8-3.4-5.0) leads the team in scoring this year and Devin Harris (18.8-3.8-4.8), who came to the Nets last year in the Kidd trade, is the only other Net averaging in double digits. Yi (9.0-7.8) came from Milwaukee in the Jefferson trade and one wonders if he'll ever be the player scouts thought he could be (he's shooting just 36.0 percent)? Josh Boone (9.0-8.2) is off to a solid start in the frontcourt but the Nets do not much look like a playoff team. Harris missed the team's game at Indiana on Saturday (a 98-80 loss), after scoring a career-high 38 points in a win over the Pistons (in the Meadowlands) on Friday and is listed as questionable in this one. While the Nets don't figure to improve too much (if at all) on last year's mark, the Heat have shown early signs of being much better this year. Wade (26.2-6.5-8.0) is one of the league's best players when healthy and healthy he is, so far. Many thought Kansas State's Michael Beasley was the best available player in LY's draft and he's opened his rookie year by averaging 16.3 PPG and 6.3 RPG. Haslem (15.0-7.2) has played well as an undersized center (6-8) and Shawn Marion (10.3-8.5) is a much better scorer than he's shown so far (18.2 career average) plus is an excellent defender. Chris Quinn (9.2), a third-year player from Notre Dame), and Kansas rookie Mario Chalmers (6.3-5.7 APG) are splitting time at the PG position and so far, so good. Miami won 98-83 at San Antonio on Friday night, beating the Spurs on the road for the first time since 1996 (2-20 all-time in San Antonio). Some pretty good Miami teams have lost in San Antonio over the years and while the Spurs are not the 'real Spurs" these days, it was an important win. Miami suffered through a dismal 9-32 home season last year but has opened this year 2-0, outscoring the Kings and 76ers 104.5-to-80.0 PPG! The Nets opened with a road win at Washington on 10/29 but after all, the Wizards are the NBA's lone remaining winless team at 0-5. Saturday's road loss at Indiana is more like it for the Nets, who lost 23 of their final 27 road games last season. The Nets have little chance without Harris and even if he plays, I see the Heat winning handily in this one. NBA Monday Monster Play 15* Mia Heat.

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 94% (16-1) MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WINNER.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over San Francisco.

[Mr. IWS]

Here's Root...

Chairman- 49er's
Millionaire- Miami Heat

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | NFL Side

triple-dime bet233 SFX 10.0 (-110) Bodog vs 234 ARI
Analysis: I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. The Cardinals are off to an impressive start but I believe that this is too big a number for them to be laying vs. a desperate and revenge-minded division rival. I like new coach Mike Singletary's fiery attitude and I expect him to have the 49'ers fired up for tonight's game. Singletary has shown his players that he means business. Not only did he send Vernon Davis to the locker-room during the last game for taking a stupid penalty, he benched JT O'Sullivan when he struggled and brought in Shaun Hill. Hill was solid in relief, completing 15 of his 23 passes for 173 yards. He had one touchdown and no interceptions. He'll be back in there tonight and I expect that to be a positive. Hill believes that he is ready and had this to say: "Being able to sit back and watch J.T. in the offense helped as well, to kind of see some of those things in action that coach (Mike) Martz was talking about in training camp. These (last) eight weeks, I've continued to learn the offense, and I feel far more advanced in it now than I was back in August."

It's true that the 49ers are 0-5 SU/ATS their past five games. You may recall that the 49ers were also on an 0-5 SU/ATS run when they traveled here last November. They were underdogs of 10 or 11 points, yet won that game outright. Including that result, the 49'ers are 10-6 SU and 9-6-1 ATS the last 16 series meetings. This year, coming off their bye, the 49'ers, who are 20-9 SU/ATS their last 29 Monday games, come in with the advantage of having had an extra week to prepare. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range and I look for them to receive a much tougher test than most are expecting. *best bet
Paid.

Don't have ***10-2 NBA RUN*** Ben Burns' "BLUE CHIP" TOTAL! YET